The bonds of democratic politics

This paper is an attempt to analyze bonds and their relevance within the confines of economics. They are discussed as both exogenous and endogenous variables. More specifically, the bonds of democratic politics are compared with those of non-democratic politics. It is argued that only those societies that have at their disposition certain kinds of bonds will be able to sustain democracy. It is further argued that the differential effects of democratic vs. non-democratic regimes on the respective bonds are rather weak. But then again, different kinds of democratic institutions might well have an effect on the prevalent bonds found in a society.

Authentisches Bewerten und Urteilen unter Unsicherheit - Arbeitsmaterialien und didaktische Kommentare für den Themenbereich "Bayessche Regel" für den Stochastikunterricht der Sekundarstufe I

Die vorliegende Unterrichtsreihe basiert auf zwei grundlegenden Vorstellungen zum Lernen und Lehren von Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung für Anfänger in der Sekundarstufe I. Zum einen ist die grundsätzliche Überzeugung der Autoren, dass ein sinnvoller und gewinnbringender Unterricht in Stochastik über den aufwendigeren Weg möglichst authentischer und konkreter Anwendungen im täglichen Leben gehen sollte. Demzufolge reicht eine Einkleidung stochastischer Probleme in realistisch wirkende Kontexte nicht, sondern es sollte eine intensive Erarbeitung authentischer Problemstellungen, z.B. mit Hilfe von realen Medientexten, erfolgen. Die Schüler sollen vor allem lernen, reale Probleme mathematisch zu modellieren und gefundene mathematische Ergebnisse für die reale Situation zu interpretieren und kritisch zu diskutieren. Eine weitere Besonderheit gegenüber traditionellen Zugängen zur Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung basiert auf kognitionspsychologischen Ergebnissen zur menschlichen Informationsverarbeitung. Durch eine Serie von Studien wurde gezeigt, dass Menschen – und natürlich auch Schüler – große Probleme haben, mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten (also auf 1 normierte Maße) umzugehen. Als viel einfacher und verständnisfördernder stellte sich die kognitive Verarbeitung von Häufigkeiten (bzw. Verhältnissen von natürlichen Zahlen) heraus. In dieser Reihe wird deshalb auf eine traditionelle formale Einführung der Bayesschen Regel verzichtet und es werden spezielle, auf Häufigkeiten basierende Hilfsmittel zur Lösungsfindung verwendet. Die erwähnten Studien belegen den Vorteil dieser Häufigkeitsdarstellungen gegenüber traditionellen Methoden im Hinblick auf den sofortigen und insbesondere den längerfristigen Lernerfolg (vgl. umfassend zu diesem Thema C. Wassner (2004). Förderung Bayesianischen Denkens, Hildesheim: Franzbecker, http://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:34-2006092214705). Die vorliegende Schrift wurde zuerst im Jahre 2004 als Anhang zur o.g. Schrift bei Franzbecker Hildesheim veröffentlicht. Der Verlag hat einer elektronischen Veröffentlichung in der KaDiSto-Reihe zugestimmt.

Settlement history of a mountain oasis in Northern Oman

To unravel the settlement history of oases in northern Oman, data on topography, the agricultural setting, water and soil parameters and archaeological findings were collected in the Wadi Bani Awf with its head oasis Balad Seet. Data collection lasted from April 2000 to April 2003 and was based on the establishment of a 3D-georeferenced map of the oasis comprising all its major infrastructural and agronomic features. At today's Balad Seet, a total of 8.8 ha are planted to 2,800 date palms and 4.6 ha are divided into 385 small fields dedicated to wheat, barley, sorghum, oats, alfalfa, garlic, onion, lime and banana. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal in the lower part of the main terrace system determined its age to 911 ± 43 years. Monthly flow measurements of four major aflaj systems showed a total maximum flow of 32 m^3 h^-1 with the largest falaj contributing 78% of the total flow. During drought periods, average water flow decreased by 3% per month, however, with significant differences between the spring systems. The analysis of the tritium/^3helium ratio in the water led to an estimated water age of up to 10 years. In combination with the flow data, this provided insights into the elasticity of the spring flow over time. The use of the natural resources of the Wadi Bani Awf by a pastoral population started probably in the early 3rd millennium BC. The first permanent settlement might have been established at Balad Seet during the first part of the 1st millennium BC. Presumably it was initiated by settlers from al-Hamra, a village at the southern foot of the Hajar mountains. Given an abundant und stable flow of springs, even in periods of drought, the construction of Balad Seet's first irrigation systems may have occurred at this early time. The combination of topographic, agricultural, hydro-pedological and archaeological data allowed assessment of the carrying capacity of this oasis over the three millennia of its likely existence. The changing scarcity of land and water and the eventual optimisation of their use by different aflaj constructions have been major driving forces for the development and apparent relativeley stable existence of this oasis.

Nutrient cycling and field-based partial nutrient balances in two mountain oases of Oman

Little is known about nutrient fluxes as a criterion to assess the sustainability of traditional irrigation agriculture in eastern Arabia. In this study GIS-based field research on terraced cropland and groves of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) was conducted over 2 years in two mountain oases of northern Oman to determine their role as hypothesized sinks for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). At Balad Seet 55% of the 385 fields received annual inputs of 100–500 kg N ha^-1 and 26% received 500–1400 kg N ha^-1. No N was applied to 19% of the fields which were under fallow. Phosphorus was applied annually at 1–90 kg ha^-1 on 46% of the fields, whereas 27% received 90–210 kg ha^-1. No K was applied to 27% of the fields, 32% received 1–300 kg K ha^-1, and the remaining fields received up to 1400 kg ha^-1. At Maqta N-inputs were 61–277 kg ha^-1 in palm groves and 112–225 kg ha^-1 in wheat (Triticum spp.) fields, respective P inputs were 9–40 and 14–29 kg ha^-1, and K inputs were 98–421 and 113–227 kg ha^-1. For cropland, partial oasis balances (comprising inputs of manure, mineral fertilizers, N2-fixation and irrigation water, and outputs of harvested products) were similar for both oases, with per hectare surpluses of 131 kg N, 37 kg P, and 84 kg K at Balad Seet and of 136 kg N, 16 kg P and 66 kg K at Maqta. This was despite the fact that N2-fixation by alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.), estimated at up to 480 kg ha^-1 yr^-1 with an average total dry matter of 22 t ha^-1, contributed to the cropland N-balance only at the former site. Respective palm grove surpluses, in contrast were with 303 kg N, 38 kg P, and 173 kg K ha^-1 much higher at Balad Seet than with 84 kg N, 14 kg P, and 91 kg K ha^-1 at Maqta. The data show that both oases presently are large sinks for nutrients. Potential gaseous and leaching losses could at least partly be controlled by a decrease in nutrient input intensity and careful incorporation of manure.

Evolving Classifiers - Evolutionary Algorithms in Data Mining

Data mining means to summarize information from large amounts of raw data. It is one of the key technologies in many areas of economy, science, administration and the internet. In this report we introduce an approach for utilizing evolutionary algorithms to breed fuzzy classifier systems. This approach was exercised as part of a structured procedure by the students Achler, Göb and Voigtmann as contribution to the 2006 Data-Mining-Cup contest, yielding encouragingly positive results.