Critical risk factors affecting the implementation of PPP waste-to-energy projects in China

Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.

'But I've never sent them any personal details apart from my driver's licence number...': Exploring seniors' attitudes towards identity crime

Identity crime is argued to be one of the most significant crime problems of today. This paper examines identity crime, through the attitudes and practices of a group of seniors in Queensland, Australia. It examines their own actions towards the protection of their personal data in response to a fraudulent email request. Applying the concept of a prudential citizen (as one who is responsible for self-regulating their behaviour to maintain the integrity of one’s identity) it will be argued that seniors often expose identity information through their actions. However, this is demonstrated to be the result of flawed assumptions and misguided beliefs over the perceived risk and likelihood of identity crime, rather than a deliberate act. This paper concludes that to protect seniors from identity crime, greater awareness of appropriate risk-management strategies towards disclosure of their personal details is required to reduce their inadvertent exposure to identity crime.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Impact of subsoil constraints on wheat yield and gross margin on fine-textured soils of the southern Victorian Mallee

The APSIM-Wheat module was used to investigate our present capacity to simulate wheat yields in a semi-arid region of eastern Australia (the Victorian Mallee), where hostile subsoils associated with salinity, sodicity, and boron toxicity are known to limit grain yield. In this study we tested whether the effects of subsoil constraints on wheat growth and production could be modelled with APSIM-Wheat by assuming that either: (a) root exploration within a particular soil layer was reduced by the presence of toxic concentrations of salts, or (b) soil water uptake from a particular soil layer was reduced by high concentration of salts through osmotic effects. After evaluating the improved predictive capacity of the model we applied it to study the interactions between subsoil constraints and seasonal conditions, and to estimate the economic effect that subsoil constraints have on wheat farming in the Victorian Mallee under different climatic scenarios. Although the soils had high levels of salinity, sodicity, and boron, the observed variability in root abundance at different soil layers was mainly related to soil salinity. We concluded that: (i) whether the effect of subsoil limitations on growth and yield of wheat in the Victorian Mallee is driven by toxic, osmotic, or both effects acting simultaneously still requires further research, (ii) at present, the performance of APSIM-Wheat in the region can be improved either by assuming increased values of lower limit for soil water extraction, or by modifying the pattern of root exploration in the soil pro. le, both as a function of soil salinity. The effect of subsoil constraints on wheat yield and gross margin can be expected to be higher during drier than wetter seasons. In this region the interaction between climate and soil properties makes rainfall information alone, of little use for risk management and farm planning when not integrated with cropping systems models.

Actionable climate knowledge: From analysis to synthesis

The traditional reductionist approach to science has a tendency to create 'islands of knowledge in a sea of ignorance', with a much stronger focus on analysis of scientific inputs rather than synthesis of socially relevant outcomes. This might be the principal reason why intended end users of climate information generally fail to embrace what the climate science community has to offer. The translation of climate information into real-life action requires 3 essential components: salience (the perceived relevance of the information), credibility (the perceived technical quality of the information) and legitimacy (the perceived objectivity of the process by which the information is shared). We explore each of these components using 3 case studies focused on dryland cropping in Australia, India and Brazil. In regards to 'salience' we discuss the challenge for climate science to be 'policy-relevant', using Australian drought policy as an example. In a village in southern India 'credibility' was gained through engagement between scientists and risk managers with the aim of building social capital, achieved only at high cost to science institutions. Finally, in Brazil we found that 'legitimacy' is a fragile, yet renewable resource that needs to be part of the package for successful climate applications; legitimacy can be easily eroded but is difficult to recover. We conclude that climate risk management requires holistic solutions derived from cross-disciplinary and participatory, user-oriented research. Approaches that combine climate, agroecological and socioeconomic models provide the scientific capabilities for establishment of 'borderless' institutions without disciplinary constraints. Such institutions could provide the necessary support and flexibility to deliver the social benefits of climate science across diverse contexts. Our case studies show that this type of solution is already being applied, and suggest that the climate science community attempt to address existing institutional constraints, which still impede climate risk management.

Scallop fishery in south east Australia

Establishing fine-scale industry based spatial management and harvest strategies for the Commercial Scallop fishery in south east Australia.

The Distribution of Henipaviruses in Southeast Asia and Australasia: Is Wallace's Line a Barrier to Nipah Virus?

Nipah virus (NiV) (Genus Henipavirus) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans and has been found in bats of the genus Pteropus. Whilst NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV-infection has been found in pteropid bats in some of Australia's closest neighbours. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of henipaviruses in fruit bat (Family Pteropodidae) populations to the north of Australia. In particular we tested the hypothesis that Nipah virus is restricted to west of Wallace's Line. Fruit bats from Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Indonesia were tested for the presence of antibodies to Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus, and tested for the presence of HeV, NiV or henipavirus RNA by PCR. Evidence was found for the presence of Nipah virus in both Pteropus vampyrus and Rousettus amplexicaudatus populations from East Timor. Serology and PCR also suggested the presence of a henipavirus that was neither HeV nor NiV in Pteropus alecto and Acerodon celebensis. The results demonstrate the presence of NiV in the fruit bat populations on the eastern side of Wallace's Line and within 500 km of Australia. They indicate the presence of non-NiV, non-HeV henipaviruses in fruit bat populations of Sulawesi and Sumba and possibly in Papua New Guinea. It appears that NiV is present where P. vampyrus occurs, such as in the fruit bat populations of Timor, but where this bat species is absent other henipaviruses may be present, as on Sulawesi and Sumba. Evidence was obtained for the presence henipaviruses in the non-Pteropid species R. amplexicaudatus and in A. celebensis. The findings of this work fill some gaps in knowledge in geographical and species distribution of henipaviruses in Australasia which will contribute to planning of risk management and surveillance activities.

Strong resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens) (Coleoptera: Laemophloeidae): its characterisation, a rapid assay for diagnosis and its distribution in Australia

BACKGROUND: The recent development of very high resistance to phosphine in rusty grain beetle, Cryptolestes ferrugineus (Stephens), seriously threatens stored-grain biosecurity. The aim was to characterise this resistance, to develop a rapid bioassay for its diagnosis to support pest management and to document the distribution of resistance in Australia in 20072011. RESULTS: Bioassays of purified laboratory reference strains and field-collected samples revealed three phenotypes: susceptible, weakly resistant and strongly resistant. With resistance factors of > 1000 x , resistance to phosphine expressed by the strong resistance phenotype was higher than reported for any stored-product insect species. The new time-to-knockdown assay rapidly and accurately diagnosed each resistance phenotype within 6 h. Although less frequent in western Australia, weak resistance was detected throughout all grain production regions. Strong resistance occurred predominantly in central storages in eastern Australia. CONCLUSION: Resistance to phosphine in the rusty grain beetle is expressed through two identifiable phenotypes: weak and strong. Strong resistance requires urgent changes to current fumigation dosages. The development of a rapid assay for diagnosis of resistance enables the provision of same-day advice to expedite resistance management decisions. (c) 2012 Commonwealth of Australia. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Linking spatial stock dynamics and economics: Evaluation of indicators and fishery management for the travelling eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

Reduced economic circumstances have moved management goals towards higher profit, rather than maximum sustainable yields in several Australian fisheries. The eastern king prawn is one such fishery, for which we have developed new methodology for stock dynamics, calculation of model-based and data-based reference points and management strategy evaluation. The fishery is notable for the northward movement of prawns in eastern Australian waters, from the State jurisdiction of New South Wales to that of Queensland, as they grow to spawning size, so that vessels fishing in the northern deeper waters harvest more large prawns. Bio-economic fishing data were standardized for calibrating a length-structured spatial operating model. Model simulations identified that reduced boat numbers and fishing effort could improve profitability while retaining viable fishing in each jurisdiction. Simulations also identified catch-rate levels that were effective for monitoring in simple within-year effort-control rules. However, favourable performance of catch-rate indicators was achieved only when a meaningful upper limit was placed on total allowed fishing effort. The methods and findings will allow improved measures for monitoring fisheries and inform decision makers on the uncertainty and assumptions affecting economic indicators.

Book Review: "Safe Design and Construction of Machinery – Regulation, Practice and Performance [First edition]"

With Safe Design and Construction of Machinery, the author presents the results of empirical studies into this significant aspect of safety science in a very readable, well-structured format. The book contains 436 references, 17 tables, one figure and a comprehensive index. Liz Bluff addresses a complex and important, but often neglected domain in OHS – the safety of machinery – in a holistic and profound, yet evidence based analysis; with many applied cases from her studies, which make the book accessible and a pleasant lecture. Although research that led to this remarkable publication might have been primarily focused on the regulators, this book can be highly recommended to all OHS academics and practitioners. It provides an important contribution to the body of knowledge in OHS, and establishes one of the few Australian in-depth insights into the significance of machinery producers, rather than machinery users in the wider framework of risk management. The author bases this fresh perspective on the well-established European Machinery Safety guidelines, and grounds her mixed-methods research predominantly in qualitative analysis of motivation and knowledge, which eventually leads to specific safety outcomes. It should be noted that both European and Australian legal aspects are investigated and considered, as both equally apply to many machinery exporters. A detailed description of the research design and methods can be found in an appendix. Overall, the unique combination of quantitative safety performance data and qualitative analysis of safety behaviours form a valuable addition to the understanding of machinery safety. The author must be congratulated on making these complex relationships transparent to the reader through her meticulous inquiry.

Eradication of two incursions of the Red Imported Fire Ant in Queensland, Australia

Of the five known incursions of the highly invasive Red Imported Fire Ant in Australia, two are regarded to have been eradicated. As treatment efforts continue, and the programme evolves and new tools become available, eradication is still considered to be feasible for the remaining Red Imported Fire Ant populations with long-term commitment and support.

Susceptibility to sulfuryl fluoride and lack of cross-resistance to phosphine in developmental stages of the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae)

BACKGROUND Our aim was to ascertain the potential of sulfuryl fluoride (SF) as an alternative fumigant to manage phosphine-resistant pests. We tested the susceptibility of all life stages of red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), to SF and assessed the presence of cross-resistance to this fumigant in phosphine-resistant strains of this species. RESULTS Analysis of dose–response data indicated that the egg was the stage most tolerant to SF under a 48 h exposure period. At LC50, eggs were 29 times more tolerant than other immature stages and adults, and required a relatively high concentration of 48.2 mg L−1 for complete mortality. No significant differences in tolerance to SF were observed among the three larval instars, pupae and adults, and all of these stages were controlled at a low concentration of 1.32 mg L−1. Phosphine-resistant strains did not show cross-resistance to SF. CONCLUSION Our research concluded that the current maximum registered rate of SF, 1500 gh m−3, is adequate to control all the post-embryonic life stages of T. castaneum over a 48 h fumigation period, but it will fail to achieve complete mortality of eggs, indicating the risk of some survival of eggs under this short exposure period. As there is no cross-resistance to SF in phosphine-resistant insects, it will play a key role in managing phosphine resistance in stored-grain insect pests. © 2014 Commonwealth of Australia. Pest Management Science © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in urban stormwater

Toxic chemical pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) are commonly present in urban stormwater. These pollutants can pose a significant risk to human health and hence a significant barrier for urban stormwater reuse. The primary aim of this study was to develop an approach for quantitatively assessing the risk to human health due to the presence of HMs in stormwater. This approach will lead to informed decision making in relation to risk management of urban stormwater reuse, enabling efficient implementation of appropriate treatment strategies. In this study, risks to human health from heavy metals were assessed as hazard index (HI) and quantified as a function of traffic and land use related parameters. Traffic and land use are the primary factors influencing heavy metal loads in the urban environment. The risks posed by heavy metals associated with total solids and fine solids (<150µm) were considered to represent the maximum and minimum risk levels, respectively. The study outcomes confirmed that Cr, Mn and Pb pose the highest risks, although these elements are generally present in low concentrations. The study also found that even though the presence of a single heavy metal does not pose a significant risk, the presence of multiple heavy metals could be detrimental to human health. These findings suggest that stormwater guidelines should consider the combined risk from multiple heavy metals rather than the threshold concentration of an individual species. Furthermore, it was found that risk to human health from heavy metals in stormwater is significantly influenced by traffic volume and the risk associated with stormwater from industrial areas is generally higher than that from commercial and residential areas.