Simulation of Tail Weight Distributions in Biological Year 1986–2006 Landings of Brown Shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, from the Northern Gulf of Mexico Fishery

Size distribution within re- ported landings is an important aspect of northern Gulf of Mexico penaeid shrimp stock assessments. It reflects shrimp population characteristics such as numerical abundance of various sizes, age structure, and vital rates (e.g. recruitment, growth, and mortality), as well as effects of fishing, fishing power, fishing practices, sampling, size-grading, etc. The usual measure of shrimp size in archived landings data is count (C) the number of shrimp tails (abdomen or edible portion) per pound (0.4536 kg). Shrimp are marketed and landings reported in pounds within tail count categories. Statistically, these count categories are count class intervals or bins with upper and lower limits expressed in C. Count categories vary in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence within the landings. The upper and lower limits of most count class intervals can be transformed to lower and upper limits (respectively) of class intervals expressed in pounds per shrimp tail, w, the reciprocal of C (i.e. w = 1/C). Age based stock assessments have relied on various algorithms to estimate numbers of shrimp from pounds landed within count categories. These algorithms required un- derlying explicit or implicit assumptions about the distribution of C or w. However, no attempts were made to assess the actual distribution of C or w. Therefore, validity of the algorithms and assumptions could not be determined. When different algorithms were applied to landings within the same size categories, they produced different estimates of numbers of shrimp. This paper demonstrates a method of simulating the distribution of w in reported biological year landings of shrimp. We used, as examples, landings of brown shrimp, Farfantepenaeus aztecus, from the northern Gulf of Mexico fishery in biological years 1986–2006. Brown shrimp biological year, Ti, is defined as beginning on 1 May of the same calendar year as Ti and ending on 30 April of the next calendar year, where subscript i is the place marker for biological year. Biological year landings encompass most if not all of the brown shrimp life cycle and life span. Simulated distributions of w reflect all factors influencing sizes of brown shrimp in the landings within a given biological year. Our method does not require a priori assumptions about the parent distributions of w or C, and it takes into account the variability in width, overlap, and frequency of occurrence of count categories within the landings. Simulated biological year distributions of w can be transformed to equivalent distributions of C. Our method may be useful in future testing of previously applied algorithms and development of new estimators based on statistical estimation theory and the underlying distribution of w or C. We also examine some applications of biological year distributions of w, and additional variables derived from them.

James Clerk Maxwell e a unidade do mundo: modelos e metáforas na construção de teorias científicas

Esta é uma pesquisa sobre o uso de metáforas na construção de modelos por parte do físico escocês James Clerk Maxwell. O objetivo da pesquisa foi buscar compreender de que maneira o uso de metáforas e modelos é legítimo na ciência e em que medida contribui para seu sucesso. Além disso, busca compreender em que medida o uso de artifícios como modelos e analogias entre ramos distintos da ciência são impulsionadores de sucesso explicativo e preditivo da teoria do físico estudado. Explora as crenças teológicas e filosóficas do autor, que vê o mundo como unidade, permitindo a analogia entre ramos distintos da física. Seus desenvolvimentos em torno de teorias como calor, cores, óptica, magnetismo e eletricidade permitem evidenciar essa visão em todo o seu trabalho. Maxwell é considerado inaugurador de nova metodologia com o uso de modelos e metáforas. Explora o desenvolvimento da teoria das cores, da descrição matem��tica da estabilidade dos anéis de Saturno e o desenvolvimento da teoria dos gases como preâmbulo à discussão da teoria do eletromagnetismo. Descreve o desenvolvimento teórico do eletromagnetismo em seus diversos momentos. A construção da teoria do eletromagnetismo evidencia paulatino abandono do mecanicismo, uso intenso de modelos e metáforas temporários e ênfase na quantificação e no uso de experimentos. Discute o relacionamento de Maxwell com as discussões filosóficas, sociais e teológicas de sua época, seu engajamento em atividades práticas nesse sentido e suas influências científicas e filosóficas. Descreve e discute os textos filosóficos do cientista, em que se evidenciam sua ontologia, suas crenças teológicas e sua concepção de analogias. Discute a questão do uso de analogias em ciência e compara diversos autores que abordam o tema. A metodologia utilizada foi a de levantamento bibliográfico com análise crítica da literatura do autor e de seus comentadores, além de comentário crítico sobre os textos prim��rios e secundários. Conclui que o sucesso científico de Maxwell deve-se à sua aposta numa unidade do mundo garantida por Deus, bem como na unidade entre o mundo e a mente humana, posturas que mostraram ser bem-sucedidas quando aplicadas à metodologia científica. Conclui também pela legitimidade e necessidade do uso de metáforas e modelos no empreendimento científico.

Caribbean corals in crisis: record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005

Background: The rising temperature of the world’s oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. Methodology/Principal Findings: Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers’ field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. Conclusions/Significance: Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch’s Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate

Exílios caminhantes: imbricações entre autorrepresentação e a narrativa de cidades nas literaturas de James Joyce e Suketu Mehta

A presente investigação propõe uma comparação entre a obra do romancista irlandês James Joyce produzida até 1904 e a obra Bombaim: cidade m��xima, do escritor indiano Suketu Mehta no sentido de identificar semelhanças em certos procedimentos de representação tanto da cidade como da autorrepresentação, ou seja, a representação de si mesmo. É objetivo da investigação aqui desenvolvida também argumentar que tais semelhanças não são meramente fortuitas, mas que estão relacionadas à continuidade de processos históricos diretamente relacionados ao advento, propagação e manutenção do que a historiadora estadunidense Ellen Meiksins Wood chama de império do capital. Para levar a investigação a cabo, foi promovida uma pesquisa formada pelos seguintes desmembramentos que compõem os capítulos da tese: uma revisão dos conceitos de colônia, império e imperialismo, assim como da relação entre o Império Britânico e a Irlanda a primeira colônia britânica e terra natal de Joyce e a Índia a maior e mais importante colônia britânica e país onde Mehta nasceu; uma exploração do tema da cidade, que envolve sua relevância para a contemporaneidade, a emergência da cidade industrial capitalista, e as ideias do sociólogo alem��o Georg Simmel acerca da configuração psicológica engendrada na e por essa conformação urbana; uma detida investigação da obra inicial de Joyce, no intuito de explorar o desenvolvimento do que chamamos de literatura dram��tica joyceana, seu uso nos primeiros textos ficcionais de Joyce e a relação de tal literatura com o tema da cidade; uma breve recapitulação de alguns dos eventos marcantes do século XX que acreditamos terem estreita relação com a pesquisa aqui desenvolvida: a derrocada do Império Britânico, a emergência dos EUA como nova potência imperial, a relação do movimento Modernista com o contexto imperialista do início do século e com o tema da cidade, ilustrada principalmente pela figura e obra de Joyce; uma detalhada exploração de Bombaim: cidade m��xima, seus personagens e temas; finalmente, a explicitação das semelhanças e diferenças existentes entre as narrativas de Joyce e Mehta e de como tais características se relacionam com a emergência, manutenção e propagação do império do capital.

Co-oscillation of a fjord basin’s circulation with decade-long oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic regimes: Puget Sound 1916-'87 [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Oceanographic, hydrologic, and climatic data collected during 1916-'87 in Puget Sound's Main Basin (~200 m x 5 km x 100 km) and approaches oscillate at low frequency between two regimes (I, II). The oscillation accounts for a large fraction of the interannual variability (41-75%) and the zero crossings between regimes span approximately a decade. ... The transition between regimes is accompanied by substantial changes in the horizontal pressure and density fields between the Pacific coast and the mixing zones leading to the Basin, as well as within the Basin itself.

James's rule and causes and consequences of a latitudinal cline in the demography of John's Snapper (Lutjanus johnii) in coastal waters of Australia

Demographic parameters were derived from sectioned otoliths of John’s Snapper (Lutjanus johnii) from 4 regions across 9° of latitude and 23° of longitude in northern Australia. Latitudinal variation in size and growth rates of this species greatly exceeded longitudinal variation. Populations of John’s Snapper farthest from the equator had the largest body sizes, in line with James’s rule, and the fastest growth rates, contrary to the temperature-size rule for ectotherms. A maximum age of 28.6 years, nearly 3 times previous estimates, was recorded and the largest individual was 990 mm in fork length. Females grew to a larger mean asymptotic fork length (L∞) than did males, a finding consistent with functional gonochorism. Otolith weight at age and gonad weight at length followed the same latitudinal trends seen in length at age. Length at maturity was ~72–87% of L∞ and varied by ~23% across the full latitudinal gradient, but age at first maturity was consistently in the range of 6–10 years, indicating that basic growth trajectories were similar across vastly different environments. We discuss both the need for complementary reproductive data in age-based studies and the insights gained from experiments where the concept of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance is applied to explain the mechanistic causes of James’s rule in tropical fish species.

Three decades of U.S. Gulf of Mexico white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, commercial catch statistics

Gulf of Mexico, white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, catch statistics have been collected by NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service for over 50 years. Recent occurrences such as natural and manmade disasters have raised awareness for the need to publish these types of data. Here we report shrimp data collected from 1984 to 2011. These 28 years of catch history are the time series used in the most recent Gulf of Mexico white shrimp stock assessment. Fishing effort for this stock has fluctuated over the period reported, ranging from 54,675 to 162,952 days fished. Catch averaged 55.7 million pounds per year, increasing significantly over the times series. In addition, catch rates have been increasing in recent years, with CPUE levels ranging from 315 lb/day fished in 2002, to 1,175 lb/ day fished in 2008. The high CPUE’s we have measured is one indication that the stock was not in decline during this time period. Consequently, we believe the decline in effort levels is due purely to economic factors. Current stock assessments are now using these baseline data to provide managers with further insights into the Gulf L. setiferus stocks.

Modelling of long-term ground response to tunnelling under St James's Park, London

Following a tunnel excavation in low-permeability soil, it is commonly observed that the ground surface continues to settle and ground loading on the tunnel lining changes, as the pore pressures in the ground approach a new equilibrium condition. The monitored ground response following the tunnelling under St James's Park, London, shows that the mechanism of subsurface deformation is composed of three different zones: swelling, consolidation and rigid body movement. The swelling took place in a confined zone above the tunnel crown, extending vertically to approximately 5 m above it. On the sides of the tunnel, the consolidation of the soil occurred in the zone primarily within the tunnel horizon, from the shoulder to just beneath the invert, and extending laterally to a large offset from the tunnel centreline. Above these swelling and consolidation zones the soil moved downward as a rigid body. In this study, soil-fluid coupled three-dimensional finite element analyses were performed to simulate the mechanism of long-term ground response monitored at St James's Park. An advanced critical state soil model, which can simulate the behaviour of London Clay in both drained and undrained conditions, was adopted for the analyses. The analysis results are discussed and compared with the field monitoring data. It is found that the observed mechanism of long-term subsurface ground and tunnel lining response at St James's Park can be simulated accurately only when stiffness anisotropy, the variation of permeability between different units within the London Clay and non-uniform drainage conditions for the tunnel lining are considered. This has important implications for future prediction of the long-term behaviour of tunnels in clays.