Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Semisolid casting of AlSi7Mg0.35 alloy produced by low-temperature pouring

AlSi7Mg0.35 alloy was cast into permanent moulds using different pouring temperatures (725 to 625degreesC). As the pouring temperature decreased, the as-cast microstructure changed from a coarse dendritic structure, through fine equiaxed grains to fine rosette-like grains. The as-cast materials were then partially remelted and isothermally held at 580degreesC prior to semisolid casting into a stepped die. The feedstock material cast from a high temperature filled only half the die, with severe segregation and other defects. The low-temperature-poured material completely filled the die with negligible porosity. The quality of semisolid castings is significantly affected by the microstructure of the semisolid feedstock material that arises from a combination of as-cast and subsequent thermal treatment conditions. The paper describes (a) the influence of pouring temperature on the microstructure of feedstock; (b) microstructure evolution through remelting and (c) the quality of semisolid castings produced with this material. For A17Si0.35Mg alloy, low temperature pouring in the range of 625-650degreesC followed by suitable isothermal holding treatment can result in good quality semisolid casting.

Effects of alcohol exposure during early life on neuron numbers in the rat hippocampus. I. Hilus neurons and granule cells

We previously showed that 16-day-old rats exposed to a relatively high dose of ethanol at 10-15 postnatal days of age have fewer neurons in the hilus region of the hippocampus compared with controls. Dentate gyrus granule cell numbers, however, showed no statistically significant changes attributable to the ethanol treatment. It is possible that some of the changes in brain morphology, brought about as a result of the exposure to ethanol during early life, may not be manifested until later in life. This question has been further addressed in an extension to our previous study. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol on postnatal days 10-15 by placement in a chamber containing ethanol vapour, for 3 h/day. The blood ethanol concentration was found to be similar to430 mg/dl at the end of the period of exposure. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET), separation control (SC), and mother-reared control (MRC) rats were anaesthetised and killed either at 16 or 30 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered 2.5% glutaraldehyde. The Cavalieri principle and the physical disector methods were used to estimate, respectively, the regional volumes and neuron cell numerical densities in the hilus and granule cell regions of the dentate gyrus. The total numbers of neurons in the hilus region and granule cell layer were computed from these estimates. It was found that 16-day-old animals had 398,000-441,000 granule cells, irrespective of group. The numbers of granule cells increased such that by 30 days of age, rats had 487,000-525,500 granule cells. However, there were no significant differences between ethanol-treated rats and their age-matched controls in granule cell numbers. In contrast, ethanol-treated rats had slightly but significantly fewer neurons in the hilus region than did control animals at 16 days of age, but not at 30 days of age. Therefore, it appears that a short period of ethanol exposure during early life can have effects on neuron numbers of some hippocampal neurons, but not others. The effects on hilar neuron numbers, observed as a result of such short periods of ethanol treatment, appeared to be transitory. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.

Effects of age and alcohol exposure during early life on pyramidal cell numbers in the CA1-CA3 region of the rat hippocampus

We have previously shown that exposing rats to a relatively high dose of ethanol during early postnatal life can result in an alteration in spatial learning ability. The hippocampal formation is known to be involved in the control of this ability. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether exposure of rats to ethanol during early postnatal life had either immediate or delayed effects on the numbers of pyramidal cells in the CA1-CA3 subregion of the hippocampus. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol at postnatal day 10-15 by placing them for 3 h/day in a chamber containing ethanol vapor. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET), separation control (SC), and mother-reared control (MRC) rats were anesthetized and killed at 16 and 30 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered 2.5% glutaraldehyde. The Cavalieri principle was used to determine the volumes of the CA1 and CA2+CA3 regions. The physical disector method was used to estimate the numerical density of neurons in each of the subdivisions. The total number of pyramidal cells was calculated by multiplying the appropriate estimates of the numerical density by the volume. There were significant age-related reductions in the total numbers of pyramidal cells at 16-30 days of age irrespective of the groups examined. Ethanol treated rats were found to have slightly but significantly fewer pyramidal cell neurons than either the MRC or SC groups. These observations indicate that pyramidal cells in the hippocampus may be vulnerable to a relatively high dose of ethanol exposure during this short period of early postnatal life. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Brazilian Adaptation of the Woodcock-Johnson III Cognitive Tests

An adaptation of the standard battery of Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Cognitive Abilities (WJ-III) for Brazilian children and youth was investigated. The sample was composed of 1094 students (54 percent girls), ages 7-17, living in Sao Paulo state (91 percent). Items from Brazilian school books as well as from the WJ-III Spanish version (Bateria-R) were added to comprehension-knowledge tests. Brazilian words were adapted to the auditory tests according to syllabic division and stressed syllables. Items were examined through IRT and age differences through analysis of variance. Results indicated the need to remove items from all WJ-III subtests with the exception of the visual learning test. Analysis of Variance indicated significant age differences (p <= 0.001) for all tests. Thus, the importance of a Brazilian adaptation for the WJ-III was confirmed.

Anticonvulsant profile of the alkaloids (+)-erythravine and (+)-11-alpha-hydroxy-erythravine isolated from the flowers of Erythrina mulungu Mart ex Benth (Leguminosae-Papilionaceae)

Neural mechanisms underlying the onset and maintenance of epileptic seizures involve alterations in inhibitory and/or excitatory neurotransmitter pathways. Thus, the prospecting of novel molecules from natural products that target both inhibition and excitation systems has deserved interest in the rational design of new anticonvulsants. We isolated the alkaloids (+)-erythravine and ( +)-11-alpha-hydroxyerythravine from the flowers of Erythrina mulungu and evaluated the action of these compounds against chemically induced seizures in rats. Our results showed that the administration of different doses of (+)-erythravine inhibited seizures evoked by bicuculline, pentylenetetrazole, and kainic acid at maximum of 80, 100, and 100%, respectively, whereas different doses of (+)-11-alpha-hydroxy-erythravine inhibited seizures at a maximum of 100% when induced by bicuculline, NMDA, and kainic acid, and, to a lesser extent, PTZ (60%). The analysis of mean latency to seizure onset of nonprotected animals, for specific doses of alkaloids, showed that (+)-erythravine increased latencies to seizures induced by bicuculline. Although (+)-erythravine exhibited very weak anticonvulsant action against seizures induced by NMDA, this alkaloid increased the latency in this assay. The increase in latency to onset of seizures promoted by (+)-11-alpha-hydroxy-erythravine reached a maximum of threefold in the bicuculline test. All animals were protected against death when treated with different doses of (+)-11-alpha-hydroxy-erythravine in the tests using the four chemical convulsants. Identical results were obtained when using (+)-erythravine in the tests of bicuculline, NMDA, and VIZ, and, to a lesser extent, kainic acid. Therefore, these data validate the anticonvulsant properties of the tested alkaloids, which is of relevance in consideration of the ethnopharmacological/biotechnological potential of E. mulungu. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neuroprotective Effects of Diazepam, Carbamazepine, Phenytoin and Ketamine after Pilocarpine-induced Status Epilepticus

Cell damage and spatial localization deficits are often reported as long-term consequences of pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus. In this study, we investigated the neuroprotective effects of repeated drug administration after long-lasting status epilepticus. Groups of six to eight Wistar rats received microinjections of pilocarpine (2.4 mg/mu l, 1 mu l) in the right dorsal hippocampus to induce a status epilepticus, which was attenuated by thiopental injection (35 mg/kg, i.p.) 3 hrs after onset. Treatments consisted of i.p. administration of diazepam, ketamine, carbamazepine, or phenytoin at 4, 28, 52, and 76 hr after the onset of status epilepticus. Two days after the treatments, rats were tested in the Morris water maze and 1 week after the cognitive tests, their brains were submitted to histology to perform haematoxylin and eosin staining and glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) immunofluorescence detection. Post-status epilepticus rats exhibited extensive gliosis and cell loss in the hippocampal CA1, CA3 (70% cell loss for both areas) and dentate gyrus (60%). Administration of all drugs reduced cell loss in the hippocampus, with best effects observed in brains slices of diazepam-treated animals, which showed less than 30% of loss in the three areas and decreased GFAP immunolabelling. Treatments improved spatial navigation during training trials and probe trial, with exception of ketamine. Interestingly, in the probe trial, only diazepam-treated animals showed preference for the goal quadrant. Our data point to significant neuroprotective effects of repeated administration of diazepam against status epilepticus-induced cell damage and cognitive disturbances.

Interferon-gamma is required for killing keratinocytes in vitro and in vivo

Epithelial malignancies are common in immunosuppressed individuals and the general population. However the mechanisms by which the adaptive immune system can eliminate immunogenic epithelial cells remain undefined. The aim of this project was to determine the effector molecules required for induction of apoptosis in murine epidermal keratinocytes (MEKs) in vitro and in vivo. HPV16E7-specific CTL lines and T cell receptor transgenic (E7TCRtg) effector cells were obtained from wild type (wt)-C57 and syngeneic mice rendered functionally inactive for perforin (Pfp), interferon-g (IFN-g) or FasL. CTLs or E7TCRtg spleen cells were co-cultured with primary MEKs in vitro or transferred into skin graft recipients. Inhibition of colony formation and skin graft rejection were used as indicators of T cell:KC interaction. Wt E7-specific CTLs and CTLs deficient in perforin, FasL or IFN-g produced mean reductions in colony formation of 67% (62.4–71.3%), 72% (71.1–72%), 76% (73–78%) and 21.5% (14– 34%) respectively. Wt, perforin deficient or FasL deficient CTLs all induced rejection of skin grafts (wt: 6/12; Pfp: 9/15; FasL: 3/13 survival). Transfer and immunisation of wt E7TCRtg spleen cells induces rejection of 50% of grafts (4/8 survival). In contrast, perforin or IFN-g deficient E7TCRtg failed to induce graft rejection (5/6; 4/4 survival). FasL deficient E7TCRtg induced nonspecific rejection of grafts (E7- 2/6 survival; C57- 4/7 survival). Therefore IFN-g production by CTL is necessary and sufficient in vitro and in vivo to kill epithelial cells which express a nonself antigen. Assessment of immunotherapies directed against epithelial tissues may be more effectively achieved by assaying the amount of IFN-g production by CD8 T cells, and the number and affinity of those cells, in conjunction with quantitation of perforin mediated effects in short term assays.

Quality of diabetes care and coronary heart disease absolute risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Australian general practice

Objective: To examine the quality of diabetes care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australian general practice patients with type 2 diabetes and to investigate its relationship with coronary heart disease absolute risk (CHDAR). Methods: A total of 3286 patient records were extracted from registers of patients with type 2 diabetes held by 16 divisions of general practice (250 practices) across Australia for the year 2002. CHDAR was estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm with higher CHDAR set at a 10 year risk of >15%. Multivariate multilevel logistic regression investigated the association between CHDAR and diabetes care. Results: 47.9% of diabetic patient records had glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7%, 87.6% had total cholesterol >= 4.0 mmol/l, and 73.8% had blood pressure (BP) >= 130/85 mm Hg. 57.6% of patients were at a higher CHDAR, 76.8% of whom were not on lipid modifying medication and 66.2% were not on antihypertensive medication. After adjusting for clustering at the general practice level and age, lipid modifying medication was negatively related to CHDAR (odds ratio (OR) 0.84) and total cholesterol. Antihypertensive medication was positively related to systolic BP but negatively related to CHDAR (OR 0.88). Referral to ophthalmologists/optometrists and attendance at other health professionals were not related to CHDAR. Conclusions: At the time of the study the diabetes and CVD preventive care in Australian general practice was suboptimal, even after a number of national initiatives. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) guidelines need to be modified to improve CVD preventive care in patients with type 2 diabetes.

A comparison of methods to identify open-lung PEEP

Purpose: Many methods exist in the literature for identifying PEEP to set in ARDS patients following a lung recruitment maneuver (RM). We compared ten published parameters for setting PEEP following a RM. Methods: Lung injury was induced by bilateral lung lavage in 14 female Dorset sheep, yielding a PaO(2) 100-150 mmHg at F(I)O(2) 1.0 and PEEP 5 cmH(2)O. A quasi-static P-V curve was then performed using the supersyringe method; PEEP was set to 20 cmH(2)O and a RM performed with pressure control ventilation (inspiratory pressure set to 40-50 cmH(2)O), until PaO(2) + PaCO(2) > 400 mmHg. Following the RM, a decremental PEEP trial was performed. The PEEP was decreased in 1 cmH(2)O steps every 5 min until 15 cmH(2)O was reached. Parameters measured during the decremental PEEP trial were compared with parameters obtained from the P-V curve. Results: For setting PEEP, maximum dynamic tidal respiratory compliance, maximum PaO(2), maximum PaO(2) + PaCO(2), and minimum shunt calculated during the decremental PEEP trial, and the lower Pflex and point of maximal compliance increase on the inflation limb of the P-V curve (Pmci,i) were statistically indistinguishable. The PEEP value obtained using the deflation upper Pflex and the point of maximal compliance decrease on the deflation limb were significantly higher, and the true inflection point on the inflation limb and minimum PaCO(2) were significantly lower than the other variables. Conclusion: In this animal model of ARDS, dynamic tidal respiratory compliance, maximum PaO(2), maximum PaO(2) + PaCO(2), minimum shunt, inflation lower Pflex and Pmci,i yield similar values for PEEP following a recruitment maneuver.

Viral Load Predicts New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy, Independent of CD4 T Lymphocyte Value

Background. Many resource-limited countries rely on clinical and immunological monitoring without routine virological monitoring for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We assessed whether HIV load had independent predictive value in the presence of immunological and clinical data for the occurrence of new World Health Organization (WHO) stage 3 or 4 events (hereafter, WHO events) among HIV-infected children receiving HAART in Latin America. Methods. The NISDI (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development International Site Development Initiative) Pediatric Protocol is an observational cohort study designed to describe HIV-related outcomes among infected children. Eligibility criteria for this analysis included perinatal infection, age ! 15 years, and continuous HAART for >= 6 months. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess time to new WHO events as a function of immunological status, viral load, hemoglobin level, and potential confounding variables; laboratory tests repeated during the study were treated as time-varying predictors. Results. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.5 years; new WHO events occurred in 92 (15.8%) of 584 children. In proportional hazards modeling, most recent viral load 15000 copies/mL was associated with a nearly doubled risk of developing a WHO event (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-3.11; P = 033), even after adjustment for immunological status defined on the basis of CD4 T lymphocyte value, hemoglobin level, age, and body mass index. Conclusions. Routine virological monitoring using the WHO virological failure threshold of 5000 copies/mL adds independent predictive value to immunological and clinical assessments for identification of children receiving HAART who are at risk for significant HIV-related illness. To provide optimal care, periodic virological monitoring should be considered for all settings that provide HAART to children.

Teaching of medical ethics: Implications for an integrated curriculum

This paper reports on an investigation into the teaching of medical ethics and related areas in the medical undergraduate course at the University of Queensland. The project was designed in the context of a major curriculum change to replace the current 6 year course by an integrated, problem-based, 4 year graduate medical course, which began in 1997. A survey of clinical students, observations of clinical teaching sessions, and interviews with clinical teachers were conducted. Data obtained have contributed to curriculum development and will provide a baseline for comparison and evaluation of the graduate course in this field. A view of integrated ethics teaching is advanced in the light of the data obtained.

Bone marrow cell therapy prevents infarct expansion and improves border zone remodeling after coronary occlusion in rats

Background: Since the cell therapy benefits for myocardial infarction are mainly related to infarct reduction by regenerating lost myocardium or increasing survival of tissues at risk, we evaluated the effects of bone marrow-derived mononuclear cells (MNC), implanted after the completion of necrosis, on infarct progression and cardiac remodeling. Methods: After 48 h of induction of myocardial infarction (MI), Lewis-inbred rats were injected with 6 x 10(6) cells (MI + MNC) or saline (MI). After six weeks, scar dimension, ventricular morphology and function were analyzed by echocardiography followed by histomorphology of the infarcted and border zones. Results: After therapy, the relative size of the infarct was smaller in MI + MNC (37 +/- 1% of the left ventricle) than in MI (43 +/- 1%). While the MI group exhibited parallel elongation of the infarcted (31.6 +/- 3.8% increase) and reminiscent ventricular portions (33.5 +/- 3.7%), MNC therapy preserved the initial infarct length. Infarcted walls were thicker (979 +/- 31 mm) in the MNC group than in the untreated group (709 +/- 41 mm), also demonstrating an absence of infarct expansion. In the border zones, MNC led to increased capillary densities and capillary/myocyte ratios. The cardiac systolic function remained depressed in MI, but improved by 19 +/- 5% in MI + MNC which reduced the incidence of pulmonary arterial hypertension (37.5% in MI and 6.25% in MI + MNC). Conclusion: MNC therapy prevented the infarct expansion and thinning related to cardiac remodeling and was associated with an improvement of border zone microcirculation: as a result, MNC therapy reduced typical MI dysfunctional repercussions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.