Models of Mortality - Analysing the Residuals

The area of mortality modelling has received significant attention over the last 20 years owing to the need to quantify and forecast improving mortality rates. This need is driven primarily by the concern of governments, professionals, insurance and actuarial professionals and individuals to be able to fund their old age. In particular, to quantify the costs of increasing longevity we need suitable model of mortality rates that capture the dynamics of the data and forecast them with sufficient accuracy to make them useful. In this paper we test several of those models by considering the fitting quality and in particular, testing the residuals of those models for normality properties. In a wide ranging study considering 30 countries we find that almost exclusively the residuals do not demonstrate normality. Further, in Hurst tests of the residuals we find evidence that structure remains that is not captured by the models.

Effects of thyroxine treatment on histology and behavior using the methimazole model of congenital hypothyroidism in the rat

The timing of thyroxine (T4) replacement treatment in congenital hypothyroidism (CH) has been suggested to be important for optimizing cognitive recovery in humans; however this has not been fully established using modern animal models of CH. Consequently, the current studies investigated the ameliorating effects of postnatal T4 treatment on neuropathology and behavior in CH rats. Rat dams were administered methimazole to produce CH offspring, then brain tissue from male CH pups was analyzed to determine the effects of postnatal (P3, P7, P14 and P21) T4 treatment on hippocampal dendritic branching and the expression of nerve growth factor (NGF). Two operant behavioral procedures were employed to confirm and extend previous findings obtained using this model, and to investigate timelines for instigating T4 treatment on improved behavioral outcomes. T4 treatment initiated at P14 was protective of a reduction in dendritic branching in the hippocampus, and initiated at P7 was protective of a reduction of NGF expression in the fimbria of the hippocampus. Induction of CH did not affect the acquisition of simple operant response rules but had a significant effect on the acquisition of complex operant rules subsequently imposed. Furthermore, T4 treatment initiated at P3 protected learning deficits seen following the imposition of complex operant response rules. These findings indicate T4 treatment initiated at P7 is sufficient for the protection of hippocampal NGF expression and dendritic branching but for the protection of complex behavioral abilities T4 treatment is necessary prior to or approximating P3.

What Went Wrong With the Mate-Tricks After-School Program, Which Increased Antisocial Behavior and Child/Parent Conflict?

This paper draws from an independent RCT evaluation on a behavior based afterschool intervention for called Mate-Tricks for 9-10 year old children and their families (N=592). This paper explores practical and theoretical issues that may have contributed to a range of iatrogenic effects found by the evaluation. To do this the paper focuses on key practical implementation factors such as: program exposure; engagement; and program quality. The paper also relates these results to popular theories of social development, including social interdependence theory. Finally, the paper discusses what the results suggest about the impact of cooperative/competitive goal structures in child and parent interventions of this type.

The frequency of gastrointestinal endocrine tumours in a well-defined population--Northern Ireland 1970-1985

The reported incidence of gastrointestinal endocrine tumours is variable. In Northern Ireland circumstances allowing such an assessment are favourable with a central diagnostic laboratory and register established to collect data on tumours from a well-defined population of 1.5 million people. From 1970 to 1985, 368 cases were recorded of which 85 per cent were carcinoid tumours. The annual incidence of carcinoid tumours was 1.3 per 100,000 of the population and the majority occurred in the appendix (61 per cent). No patients presented with the carcinoid syndrome. The annual incidence for other tumours was 0.12 per 100,000 for insulinomas; islet cell tumours of unknown type 0.07; Zollinger-Ellison syndrome 0.05; and multiple endocrine neoplasia (MEN) 0.05. There were two cases of VIPoma, one glucagonoma, one neurotensinoma and one tumour producing ACTH. It is possible that some tumours are more uncommon than others because of difficulty in diagnosis.