Tributo a la calidad institucional. Un desafío para la sociología jurídica latinoamericana (Tema Central)

El principal desafío de América Latina consiste en encontrar el modo de afrontar la fragmentación social, el individualismo extremo y las inequidades oprobiosas en el marco del más absoluto respeto a las instituciones. El Estado aún tiene en sus manos dos herramientas formidables: la educación y el sistema tributario. La insistencia en el cumplimiento de las obligaciones tributarias contribuye decisivamente a formar una conciencia ciudadana, fundamento, a su vez, de una mayor calidad institucional. Y, en una suerte de causalidad circular, el correcto funcionamiento de las instituciones legitima el reclamo de cumplimiento de las obligaciones tributarias a un habitante que va, así, tomando creciente conciencia de los deberes y derechos emergentes de su condición de ciudadano. Para comprender el modo en que pueden darse estos procesos en la región, es preciso contar con una nueva disciplina: la sociología de las finanzas públicas.

Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.

The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I. Observation and modelling

In this study, the oceanic regions that are associated with anomalous Ethiopian summer rains were identified and the teleconnection mechanisms that give rise to these associations have been investigated. Because of the complexities of rainfall climate in the horn of Africa, Ethiopia has been subdivided into six homogeneous rainfall zones and the influence of SST anomalies was analysed separately for each zone. The investigation made use of composite analysis and modelling experiments. Two sets of composites of atmospheric fields were generated, one based on excess/deficit rainfall anomalies and the other based on warm/cold SST anomalies in specific oceanic regions. The aim of the composite analysis was to determine the link between SST and rainfall in terms of large scale features. The modelling experiments were intended to explore the causality of these linkage. The results show that the equatorial Pacific, the midlatitude northwest Pacific and the Gulf of Guinea all exert an influence on the summer rainfall in various part of the country. The results demonstrate that different mechanisms linked to sea surface temperature control variations in rainfall in different parts of Ethiopia. This has important consequences for seasonal forecasting models which are based on statistical correlations between SST and seasonal rainfall totals. It is clear that such statistical models should take account of the local variations in teleconnections.

Personalised nutrition: status and perspectives

Personalised, genotype-based nutrition is a concept that links genotyping with specific nutritional advice in order to improve the prevention of nutrition-associated, chronic diseases. This review describes the current scientific basis of the concept and discusses its problems. There is convincing evidence that variant genes may indeed determine the biological response to nutrients. The effects of single-gene variants on risk or risk factor levels of a complex disease are, however, usually small and sometimes inconsistent. Thus, information on the effects of combinations of relevant gene variants appears to be required in order to improve the predictive precision of the genetic information. Furthermore, very few associations between genotype and response have been tested for causality in human intervention studies, and little is known about potential adverse effects of a genotype-derived intervention. These issues need to be addressed before genotyping can become an acceptable method to guide nutritional recommendations.

Which drugs cause preventable admissions to hospital? A systematic review

Aim: Previous systematic reviews have found that drug-related morbidity accounts for 4.3% of preventable hospital admissions. None, however, has identified the drugs most commonly responsible for preventable hospital admissions. The aims of this study were to estimate the percentage of preventable drug-related hospital admissions, the most common drug causes of preventable hospital admissions and the most common underlying causes of preventable drug-related admissions. Methods: Bibliographic databases and reference lists from eligible articles and study authors were the sources for data. Seventeen prospective observational studies reporting the proportion of preventable drug-related hospital admissions, causative drugs and/or the underlying causes of hospital admissions were selected. Included studies used multiple reviewers and/or explicit criteria to assess causality and preventability of hospital admissions. Two investigators abstracted data from all included studies using a purpose-made data extraction form. Results: From 13 papers the median percentage of preventable drug-related admissions to hospital was 3.7% (range 1.4-15.4). From nine papers the majority (51%) of preventable drug-related admissions involved either antiplatelets (16%), diuretics (16%), nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (11%) or anticoagulants (8%). From five studies the median proportion of preventable drug-related admissions associated with prescribing problems was 30.6% (range 11.1-41.8), with adherence problems 33.3% (range 20.9-41.7) and with monitoring problems 22.2% (range 0-31.3). Conclusions: Four groups of drugs account for more than 50% of the drug groups associated with preventable drug-related hospital admissions. Concentrating interventions on these drug groups could reduce appreciably the number of preventable drug-related admissions to hospital from primary care.

Diet, ageing and genetic factors in the pathogenesis of diverticular disease

Diverticular disease (DD) is an age-related disorder of the large bowel which may affect half of the population over the age of 65 in the UK. This high prevalence ranks it as one of the most common bowel disorders in western nations. The majority of patients remain asymptomatic but there are associated life-threatening co-morbidities, which, given the large numbers of people with DD, translates into a considerable number of deaths per annum. Despite this public health burden, relatively little seems to be known about either the mechanisms of development or causality. In the 1970s, a model of DD formulated the concept that diverticula occur as a consequence of pressureinduced damage to the colon wall amongst those with a low intake of dietary fiber. In this review, we have examined the evidence regarding the influence of ageing, diet, inflammation and genetics on DD development. We argue that the evidence supporting the barotrauma hypothesis is largely anecdotal. We have also identified several gaps in the knowledge base which need to be filled before we can complete

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Disturbances in early parenting of depressed mothers and cortisol secretion in offspring: A preliminary study

Background: Disturbances in cortisol secretion are associated with risk for psychiatric disorder, including depression. Animal research indicates that early care experiences influence hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis functioning in offspring. Similar effects are suggested in human development, but evidence of longitudinal associations between observed early parenting and offspring cortisol secretion is extremely limited. We studied associations between parenting disturbances occurring in the context of maternal postnatal depression (PND), and elevations in morning cortisol secretion in the adolescent offspring of PND mothers. Methods: We observed maternal parenting behaviour on four occasions through the first year and at five-year follow up in postnatally depressed (n = 29) and well (n = 20) mothers. Observations were coded for maternal sensitivity and withdrawal. Basal offspring salivary cortisol secretion was measured at 13-years, using collections over 10-days. Results: Postnatal, but not five-year, maternal withdrawal predicted elevated mean and maximum morning cortisol secretion in 13-year-old offspring. There were no significant associations between maternal sensitivity and offspring cortisol secretion. Limitations: The sample size was relatively small, and effects tended to be reduced to trend level when covariates were considered. The correlational nature of the study (albeit longitudinal) limits conclusions regarding causality. Conclusions: Individual differences in early maternal parenting behaviour may influence offspring cortisol secretion, and thereby risk for depression. Parenting interventions that facilitate active maternal engagement with the infant may be indicated for high risk populations.

Time series multistep-ahead predictability estimation and ranking

A predictability index was defined as the ratio of the variance of the optimal prediction to the variance of the original time series by Granger and Anderson (1976) and Bhansali (1989). A new simplified algorithm for estimating the predictability index is introduced and the new estimator is shown to be a simple and effective tool in applications of predictability ranking and as an aid in the preliminary analysis of time series. The relationship between the predictability index and the position of the poles and lag p of a time series which can be modelled as an AR(p) model are also investigated. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated using numerical examples including an application to stock prices.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

Postprandial lipemia and cardiovascular disease risk: interrelationships between dietary, physiological and genetic determinants

Although the independence of the association and causality has not been fully established, non-fasting (postprandial) triglyceride (TG) concentrations have emerged as a clinically significant cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. In the current review, findings from three insightful prospective studies in the area, namely the Women's Health Study, the Copenhagen City Heart Study and the Norwegian Counties Study, are discussed. An overview is provided as to the likely etiological basis for the association between postprandial TG and CVD, with a focus on both lipid and non-lipid (inflammation, hemostasis and vascular function) risk factors. The impact of various lifestyle and physiological determinants are considered, in particular genetic variation and meal fat composition. Furthermore, although data is limited some information is provided as to the relative and interactive impact of a number of modulators of lipemia. It is evident that relative to age, gender and body mass index (known modulators of postprandial lipemia), the contribution of identified gene variants to the heterogeneity observed in the postprandial response is likely to be relatively small. Finally, we highlight the need for the development of a standardised ‘fat tolerance test’ for use in clinical trials, to allow the integration and comparison of data from individual studies

Continental shift? An analysis of convergence trends in European real estate equities

European economic and political integration have been recognised as having implications for patterns of performance in national real estate and capital markets and have generated a wide body of research and commentary. In 1999, progress towards monetary integration within the European Union culminated in the introduction of a common currency and monetary policy. This paper investigates the effects of this ‘event’ on the behaviour of stock returns in European real estate companies. A range of statistical tests is applied to the performance of European property companies to test for changes in segmentation, co-movement and causality. The results suggest that, relative to the wider equity markets, the dispersion of performance is higher, correlations are lower, a common contemporaneous factor has much lower explanatory power whilst lead-lag relationships are stronger. Consequently, the evidence of transmission of monetary integration to real estate securities is less noticeable than to general securities. Less and slower integration is attributed to the relatively small size of the real estate securities market and the local and national nature of the majority of the companies’ portfolios.

Caste, livelihoods and livestock: an exploration of the uptake of livestock vaccination adoption among poor farmers in India

The study explores the uptake of livestock vaccination among poor farming communities in Tamil Nadu State, India by revisiting innovation diffusion theory. Overall, 601 farmers participated in the study. We found the adoption of particular vaccines was strongly influenced by socio-cultural grouping i.e. caste, rather than other factors such as income, age, education-level or gender. Adoption was also related to specific knowledge frames regarding disease causality, rather than any wider ethno-veterinary beliefs. Thus, the adoption of livestock vaccination is unlikely to improve without knowledge transfer activities, which acknowledge both social divisions and local epistemologies regarding animal health. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.