Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

A global seasonal surface ocean climatology of phytoplankton types based on CHEMTAX analysis of HPLC pigments

Much advancement has been made in recent years in field data assimilation, remote sensing and ecosystem modeling, yet our global view of phytoplankton biogeography beyond chlorophyll biomass is still a cursory taxonomic picture with vast areas of the open ocean requiring field validations. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data combined with inverse methods offer an advantage over many other phytoplankton quantification measures by way of providing an immediate perspective of the whole phytoplankton community in a sample as a function of chlorophyll biomass. Historically, such chemotaxonomic analysis has been conducted mainly at local spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. Here, we apply a widely tested inverse approach, CHEMTAX, to a global climatology of pigment observations from HPLC. This study marks the first systematic and objective global application of CHEMTAX, yielding a seasonal climatology comprised of ~1500 1°x1° global grid points of the major phytoplankton pigment types in the ocean characterizing cyanobacteria, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, dinoflagellates, and diatoms, with results validated against prior regional studies where possible. Key findings from this new global view of specific phytoplankton abundances from pigments are a) the large global proportion of marine haptophytes (comprising 32 ± 5% of total chlorophyll), whose biogeochemical functional roles are relatively unknown, and b) the contrasting spatial scales of complexity in global community structure that can be explained in part by regional oceanographic conditions. These publicly accessible results will guide future parameterizations of marine ecosystem models exploring the link between phytoplankton community structure and marine biogeochemical cycles.

La tempestad y el progreso : una aproximación a la sociedad global de la información

En las últimas décadas, la sociedad de la información se ha convertido en una cuestión de debate. Es un paradigma emergente sobre los nuevos modelos de ciencia, de producción de conocimiento e innovación tecnológica. Complejidad y cambio son dos características definidoras de este fenómeno sistémico. El autor propone una aproximación a los desafíos y problemas más importantes en la era de la información. Según los pensadores analizados, esta área de investigación comprende el conjunto de nuevas tecnologías en un proceso multidimensional relacionado con el desarrollo del capitalismo global, y particularmente con la expansión de las empresas multinacionales. La sociedad de la información representa un nuevo orden mundial, sustentado en el mito ideológico y hegemónico del progreso. El artículo tiene dos objetivos: a) identificar algunas de las principales categorías y conceptos utilizados en la discusión; b) presentar un esquema desarrollado para el examen de sus impactos y consecuencias.

A global compolation of late Holocene planktonic foraminiferal d18O

We review the different sources of uncertainty affecting the oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera and present a global planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope data set that has been assembled within the MARGO project for the Late Holocene time slice. The data set consists of over 2100 data from recent sediment with thorough age control, that have been checked for internal consistency. We further examine how the oxygen isotopic composition of fossil foraminifera is related to hydrological conditions, based on published results on living foraminifera from plankton tows and cultures. Oxygen isotopic values (delta18O) of MARGO recent fossil foraminifera are 0.2-0.8 per mil higher than those of living foraminifera. Our results show that this discrepancy is related to the stratification of the upper water mass and generally increases at low latitudes. Therefore, as stratification of surface waters and seasonality depends on climatic conditions, the relationship between temperature and delta18O established on fossil foraminifera from recent sediment must be used with caution in paleoceanographic studies. Before models predicting seasonal flux, abundance and delta18O composition of a foraminiferal population in the sediment are available, we recommend studying relative changes in isotopic composition of fossil planktonic foraminifera. These changes primarily record variations in temperature and oxygen isotopic composition of sea water, although part of the changes might reflect modifications of planktonic foraminifera seasonality or depth habitat

Perspectives on guidance and social inclusion in a global society

The world is changing rapidly. People today face numerous challenges in achieving a meaningful and fulfilling life. In many countries, there are enormous systemic barriers to address, such as: massive unemployment, HIV/AIDS, social disintegration, and inadequate infrastructure. One job for life is over. For many it never existed. Old metaphors and old models of career development no longer apply. New ways of thinking about careers are necessary, that take into account the context in which people are living, the reality of today's labour market, and the fact people's career-life journey contains many branching paths, barriers, and obstacles, but also allies and sources of assistance. Flexibility is important, as is keeping options open and making sure the journey is meaningful. Guidance professionals need to begin early, working with other professionals and those seeking assistance to develop attitudes that facilitate people taking charge of their own career-life paths. People need a vision for their life that will drive a purposeful approach to career-life planning and avoid floundering. Helping people achieve that direction can be most effectively accomplished when policy makers and practitioners work together to ensure that effective and accessible services are available for those who need them and when a large part of focus in on addressing the context in which marginalized people work and live.

Perspectives on guidance and social inclusion in a global society

The world is changing rapidly. People today face numerous challenges in achieving a meaningful and fulfilling life. In many countries, there are enormous systemic barriers to address, such as: massive unemployment, HIV/AIDS, social disintegration, and inadequate infrastructure. One job for life is over. For many it never existed. Old metaphors and old models of career development no longer apply. New ways of thinking about careers are necessary, that take into account the context in which people are living, the reality of today's labour market, and the fact people's career-life journey contains many branching paths, barriers, and obstacles, but also allies and sources of assistance. Flexibility is important, as is keeping options open and making sure the journey is meaningful. Guidance professionals need to begin early, working with other professionals and those seeking assistance to develop attitudes that facilitate people taking charge of their own career-life paths. People need a vision for their life that will drive a purposeful approach to career-life planning and avoid floundering. Helping people achieve that direction can be most effectively accomplished when policy makers and practitioners work together to ensure that effective and accessible services are available for those who need them and when a large part of focus in on addressing the context in which marginalized people work and live.

Perspectives on guidance and social inclusion in a global society

The world is changing rapidly. People today face numerous challenges in achieving a meaningful and fulfilling life. In many countries, there are enormous systemic barriers to address, such as: massive unemployment, HIV/AIDS, social disintegration, and inadequate infrastructure. One job for life is over. For many it never existed. Old metaphors and old models of career development no longer apply. New ways of thinking about careers are necessary, that take into account the context in which people are living, the reality of today's labour market, and the fact people's career-life journey contains many branching paths, barriers, and obstacles, but also allies and sources of assistance. Flexibility is important, as is keeping options open and making sure the journey is meaningful. Guidance professionals need to begin early, working with other professionals and those seeking assistance to develop attitudes that facilitate people taking charge of their own career-life paths. People need a vision for their life that will drive a purposeful approach to career-life planning and avoid floundering. Helping people achieve that direction can be most effectively accomplished when policy makers and practitioners work together to ensure that effective and accessible services are available for those who need them and when a large part of focus in on addressing the context in which marginalized people work and live.

Global ASCII grids with daylenth values during summer and winter solstice and ASCII grids representing habitat suitability of Fucus distichus and its niche overlap with temperate macroalgae under present-day and future (2100, 2200) conditions

Abstract has to be submitted by the author!

The Global Plankton Database: an inventory and data from the Former Soviet Union expeditions

At present time, there is a lack of knowledge on the interannual climate-related variability of zooplankton communities of the tropical Atlantic, central Mediterranean Sea, Caspian Sea, and Aral Sea, due to the absence of appropriate databases. In the mid latitudes, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of atmospheric fluctuations over eastern North America, the northern Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Therefore, one of the issues that need to be addressed through data synthesis is the evaluation of interannual patterns in species abundance and species diversity over these regions in regard to the NAO. The database has been used to investigate the ecological role of the NAO in interannual variations of mesozooplankton abundance and biomass along the zonal array of the NAO influence. Basic approach to the proposed research involved: (1) development of co-operation between experts and data holders in Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, UK, and USA to rescue and compile the oceanographic data sets and release them on CD-ROM, (2) organization and compilation of a database based on FSU cruises to the above regions, (3) analysis of the basin-scale interannual variability of the zooplankton species abundance, biomass, and species diversity.

Deforesting Europe: pollen-inferred Holocene land cover change using the 'pseudobiomization' approach

Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 BP to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 BP through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 BP onwards. From 2200 BP land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 BP. Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.