How well can models predict changes in species distributions? A 13-year-old otter model revisited

Species distribution and ecological niche models are increasingly used in biodiversity management and conservation. However, one thing that is important but rarely done is to follow up on the predictive performance of these models over time, to check if their predictions are fulfilled and maintain accuracy, or if they apply only to the set in which they were produced. In 2003, a distribution model of the Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) in Spain was published, based on the results of a country-wide otter survey published in 1998. This model was built with logistic regression of otter presence-absence in UTM 10 km2 cells on a diverse set of environmental, human and spatial variables, selected according to statistical criteria. Here we evaluate this model against the results of the most recent otter survey, carried out a decade later and after a significant expansion of the otter distribution area in this country. Despite the time elapsed and the evident changes in this species’ distribution, the model maintained a good predictive capacity, considering both discrimination and calibration measures. Otter distribution did not expand randomly or simply towards vicinity areas,m but specifically towards the areas predicted as most favourable by the model based on data from 10 years before. This corroborates the utility of predictive distribution models, at least in the medium term and when they are made with robust methods and relevant predictor variables.

Single diode model parameters analysis of photovoltaic cell

In this paper it is proposed to obtain enhanced and more efficient parameters model from generalized five parameters (single diode) model of PV cells. The paper also introduces, describes and implements a seven parameter model for photovoltaic cell (PV cell) which includes two internal parameters and five external parameters. To obtain the model the mathematical equations and an equivalent circuit consisting of a photo generated current source, a series resistor, a shunt resistor and a diode is used. The fundamental equation of PV cell is used to analyse and best fit the observation data. Especially bisection iteration method is used to obtain the expected result and to understand the deviation of changes in different parameters situation at various conditions respectively. The produced model can be used of measuring and understanding the actions of photovoltaic cells for certain changes and parameters extraction. The effect is also studied with I-V and P-V characteristics of PV cells though it is a challenge to optimize the output with real time simulation. The working procedure is also discussed and an experiment presented to get the closure and insight about the produced model and to decide upon the model validity. At the end, we observed that the result of the simulation is very close to the produced model.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.