Bayesian estimation of regression parameters in elliptical measurement error models

The main object of this paper is to discuss the Bayes estimation of the regression coefficients in the elliptically distributed simple regression model with measurement errors. The posterior distribution for the line parameters is obtained in a closed form, considering the following: the ratio of the error variances is known, informative prior distribution for the error variance, and non-informative prior distributions for the regression coefficients and for the incidental parameters. We proved that the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients has at most two real modes. Situations with a single mode are more likely than those with two modes, especially in large samples. The precision of the modal estimators is studied by deriving the Hessian matrix, which although complicated can be computed numerically. The posterior mean is estimated by using the Gibbs sampling algorithm and approximations by normal distributions. The results are applied to a real data set and connections with results in the literature are reported. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Semiparametric Bayesian measurement error modeling

This work presents a Bayesian semiparametric approach for dealing with regression models where the covariate is measured with error. Given that (1) the error normality assumption is very restrictive, and (2) assuming a specific elliptical distribution for errors (Student-t for example), may be somewhat presumptuous; there is need for more flexible methods, in terms of assuming only symmetry of errors (admitting unknown kurtosis). In this sense, the main advantage of this extended Bayesian approach is the possibility of considering generalizations of the elliptical family of models by using Dirichlet process priors in dependent and independent situations. Conditional posterior distributions are implemented, allowing the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to generate the posterior distributions. An interesting result shown is that the Dirichlet process prior is not updated in the case of the dependent elliptical model. Furthermore, an analysis of a real data set is reported to illustrate the usefulness of our approach, in dealing with outliers. Finally, semiparametric proposed models and parametric normal model are compared, graphically with the posterior distribution density of the coefficients. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Nonlinear Regression Model Under Skewed Errors, with Application in Growth Curves

We have considered a Bayesian approach for the nonlinear regression model by replacing the normal distribution on the error term by some skewed distributions, which account for both skewness and heavy tails or skewness alone. The type of data considered in this paper concerns repeated measurements taken in time on a set of individuals. Such multiple observations on the same individual generally produce serially correlated outcomes. Thus, additionally, our model does allow for a correlation between observations made from the same individual. We have illustrated the procedure using a data set to study the growth curves of a clinic measurement of a group of pregnant women from an obstetrics clinic in Santiago, Chile. Parameter estimation and prediction were carried out using appropriate posterior simulation schemes based in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Besides the deviance information criterion (DIC) and the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. For our data set, all these criteria chose the skew-t model as the best model for the errors. These DIC and CPO criteria are also validated, for the model proposed here, through a simulation study. As a conclusion of this study, the DIC criterion is not trustful for this kind of complex model.

A theoretical and mass spectrometry study of the fragmentation of mycosporine-like amino acids

In the present study, the mycosporine-like amino acids (MAAs) were isolated from the marine red alga Gracilaria tenuistipitata and analysed by high-resolution accurate-mass sequential mass spectrometry (MSn). In addition to the proposed fragmentation mechanism based on the MSn analysis, it is clearly demonstrated that the elimination of mass 15 is a radical processes taking place at the methoxyl substituent of the double bond. This characteristic loss of a methyl radical was studied by theoretical calculations and the homolytic cleavage of the O-C bond is suggested to be dependent on the bond weakening. The protonation site of the MAAs was indicated by analysis of the Fukui functions and the relative Gibbs energies of the several possible protonated forms. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mutagenicity and DNA adduct formation of PAH, nitro-PAH, and oxy-PAH fractions of atmospheric particulate matter from Sao Paulo, Brazil

Urban particulate matter (UPM) contributes to lung cancer incidence. Here, we have studied the mutagenic activity and DNA adduct-forming ability of fractionated UPM extractable organic matter (EOM). UPM was collected with a high-volume sampler in June 2004 at two sites, one at street level adjacent to a roadway and the other inside a park within the urban area of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. UPM was extracted using dichloromethane, and the resulting EOM was separated by HPLC to obtain PAH, nitro-PAH, and oxy-PAH fractions which were tested for mutagenicity with the Salmonella strains TA98 and YG1041 with and without S9 metabolic activation. The PAH fraction from both sites showed negligible mutagenic activity in both strains. The highest mutagenic activity was found for the nitro-PAH fraction using YG1041 without metabolic activation; however, results were comparable for both sites. The nitro-PAH and oxy-PAH fractions were incubated with calf thymus DNA under reductive conditions appropriate for the activation of nitro aromatic compounds, then DNA adduct patterns and levels were determined with thin-layer chromatography (TLC) (32)p-postlabeling method using two enrichment procedures-nuclease PI digestion and butanol extraction. Reductively activated fractions from both sites produced diagonal radioactive zones (DRZ) of putative aromatic DNA adducts on thin layer plates with both enrichment procedures. No such DRZ were observed in control experiments using fractions from unexposed filters or from incubations without activating system. Total adduct levels produced by the nitro-PAH fractions were similar for both sites ranging from 30 to 45 adducts per 10(8) normal nucleotides. In contrast, the DNA binding of reductively activated oxy-PAH fractions was three times higher and the adduct pattern consisted of multiple discrete spots along the diagonal line on the thin layer plates. However, DNA adduct levels were not significantly different between the sampling sites. Both samples presented the same levels of mutagenic activity. The response in the Salmonella assay was typical of nitroaromatics. Although, more mutagenic activity was related to the nitro-PAH fraction in the Salmonella assay, the oxy-PAH fractions showed the highest DNA adduct levels. More studies are needed to elucidate the nature of the genotoxicants occurring in Sao Paulo atmospheric samples. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thiothionyl bromide (S=SBr2): The elusive isomer of dibromodisulfane (BrSSBr)

CCSD(T) with a series of correlation consistent basis up to quadruple-zeta is used to investigate the structures, vibrational spectra, relative stability, heats of formation, and barrier to isomerization of S=SBr2 and BrSSBr. It represents the most accurate and detailed characterization of these molecules to date. We show that the frequency mode at 302 cm(-1), detected in various studies and assigned to impurities by some authors, and to the anti-symmetric SBr stretch in BrSSBr by others, thus in fact corresponds to the anti-symmetric SBr stretch in the elusive S=SBr2 species; it thus corroborates and complements an earlier partial IR spectra study attributable to S=SBr2. Including corrections for relativistic and core-valence correlation effects, we also predict 26.33 (12.74) kcal/mol for Delta H-f (298.15 K) of S=SBr2 (BrSSBr). For the S=SBr2 -> BrSSBr reaction, our best estimates for the Gibbs free energy and the enthalpy of the reaction at 298.15 K are -13.71 and -13.44 kcal/mol, respectively. For a value of Delta G(#) equal to 23.52 kcal/mol, we estimate a TST rate constant, at 298.15 K, of 3.57 x 10(-5) s(-1). (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ab Initio Analysis of Monomers and Dimers of Trialkylphosphine Oxides: Structural and Thermodynamic Stability

Structural and thermodynamic stabilities of monomers and dimers of trialkylphosphine oxides (TRPO) were Studied using quantum chemistry calculations. Density functional theory calculations were carried Out and the structures Of four TRPO have been determined: TMPO (methyl; R = CH(3)), TEPO (ethyl; R = CH(3)CH(2)), TBPO (n-butyl; R = CH(3)(CH(2))(3)), and TOPO (n-octyl; R = CH(3)(CH(2))(7)). TRPO homodimers were investigated considering two isomeric possibilities for each dimer. Relative binding energies and the enthalpic and entropic contributions to the Gibbs free energy were Calculated for all dimers. The formation of dimers from the individual monomeric TRPO species as a function of temperature was also analyzed. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem 109: 250-258, 2009

Thermodynamics and Lithium Intercalation in CeO(2)-TiO(2) Thin Film

The kinetics and the thermodynamics of electrochemical intercalation of lithium into CeO(2)-TiO(2) films prepared by the sol-gel process were studied by galvanostatic intermittent titration technique (GITT) as function of the depth of lithium intercalation. The open-circuit-potential versus x in Li(x)(CeO(2)-TiO(2)) curve consists of two straight lines with different slopes, one in the range of 0.03 <= x <= 0.09 and the other of 0.09 < x <= 0.15. The standard Gibbs energy for lithium intercalation Delta G(1)(0) was 6kJ/mol for x = 0.09 in Li(x)(CeO(2)-TiO(2)) at room temperature. The chemical diffusion coefficient value, D(Li+), of lithium intercalation into thin film oxide was 2.14.10(-11) cm(2)/s at x = 0.15, and the value of the component diffusion coefficient D(Li+),(k) was about one order of magnitude lower than the coefficient of chemical diffusion.

On the interaction of bovine serum albumin with ionic surfactants: Temperature induced EPR changes of a maleimide nitroxide reflect local protein dynamics and probe solvent accessibility

The interaction of bovine serum albumin (BSA) with the ionic surfactants sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS, anionic), cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC, cationic) and N-hexadecyl-N,N-dimethyl-3-ammonio-1-propanesulfonate (HPS, zwitterionic) was studied by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy of spin label covalently bound to the single free thiol group of the protein. EPR spectra simulation allows to monitor the protein dynamics at the labeling site and to estimate the changes in standard Gibbs free energy, enthalpy and entropy for transferring the nitroxide side chain from the more motionally restricted to the less restricted component. Whereas SDS and CTAC showed similar increases in the dynamics of the protein backbone for all measured concentrations. HPS presented a smaller effect at concentrations above 1.5 mM. At 10 mM of surfactants and 0.15 mM BSA, the standard Gibbs free energy change was consistent with protein backbone conformations more expanded and exposed to the solvent as compared to the native protein, but with a less pronounced effect for HPS. In the presence of the surfactants, the enthalpy change, related to the energy required to dissociate the nitroxide side chain from the protein, was greater, suggesting a lower water activity. The nitroxide side chain also detected a higher viscosity environment in the vicinity of the paramagnetic probe induced by the addition of the surfactants. The results suggest that the surfactant-BSA interaction, at higher surfactant concentration, is affected by the affinities of the surfactant to its own micelles and micelle-like aggregates. Complementary DLS data suggests that the temperature induced changes monitored by the nitroxide probe reflects local changes in the vicinity of the single thiol group of Cys-34 BSA residue. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chinese Basic Pension Substitution Rate: A Monte Carlo Demonstration of the Individual Account Model

At the end of 2005, the State Council of China passed ”The Decision on adjusting the Individual Account of Basic Pension System”, which adjusted the individual account in the 1997 basic pension system. In this essay, we will analyze the adjustment above, and use Life Annuity Actuarial Theory to establish the basic pension substitution rate model. Monte Carlo simulation is also used to prove the rationality of the model. Some suggestions are put forward associated with the substitution rate according to the current policy.

Fungos anemófilos em Porto Alegre, RS.

O conhecimento dos fungos anemófilos em determinada cidade ou região é importante para o diagnóstico etiológico e o tratamento específico das manifestações alérgicas respiratórias. Várias técnicas quantitativas e qualitativas são preconizadas para coleta e identificação desses fungos na dependência do local estudado. Nesta pesquisa, sobre esporos de fungos do ar, foi utilizado o equipamento Rotorod Sampler®, que retira a amostra do ar através de um bastão de plástico preso a um motor elétrico que o faz girar rapidamente, sendo as partículas suspensas no ar recolhidas pelo bastão. As amostras foram coletadas uma vez por semana, durante 24 horas, correspondendo a um ciclo de coleta. Foram realizadas 52 coletas entre abril de 2000 e março de 2001. Os resultados mostraram prevalência de ascosporos (50,49%), Cladosporium (17,86%), Aspergillus/Penicillium (15,03%), basidiosporos (3,84%), rusts (3,82%), Helminthosporium (2,49%), Botrytis (1,22%), Alternaria (1,19%), smuts (0,90%), Curvularia (0,87%), Nigrospora (0,61%) e Fusarium (0,08%). Não foi possível identificar 1,59% dos esporos de fungos coletados no período. O maior número de esporos foi observado nos meses de verão e o menor, durante o outono. Utilizando provas in vivo e in vitro, avaliou-se a hipersensibilidade a fungos entre 39 pacientes atópicos sofrendo de rinite e ou asma brônquica. Os testes cutâneos identificaram sensibilização em 17,94% dos pacientes, enquanto as provas sorológicas caracterizaram presença de IgE específica em 12,82% dos casos avaliados. A detecção de significativo número de esporos de fungos no ar de Porto Alegre, com muitas espécies comprovadamente alergênicas, e os índices de sensibilização observados em indivíduos atópicos confirmam a importância do estudo dos fungos anemófilos nessa cidade, com vistas a aprimorar o diagnóstico e o manejo de pacientes com manifestações alérgicas respiratórias.

Reação de estado sólido em multicamadas de Fe-Zr

Filmes finos de Fe-Zr na geometria de multicamadas foram tratados termicamente variando-se a temperatura (350ºC e 500ºC) e o tempo de tratamento (10min a 72h). As fases formadas por Reação de Estado Sólido (RES) em multicamadas com três composições totais diferentes (Fe0.67Zr0.33, Fe0.50Zr0.50, Fe0.33Zr0.67) foram analisadas por espectroscopia de retroespalhamento de Rutherford, difratometria de raios-X e espectroscopia Mössbauer. Verificou-se que a primeira fase formada é sempre uma fase amorfa de composição aproximada 50%at Fe. A fração Mössbauer desta fase, em função do tempo de tratamento térmico a 350ºC, foi traçada para as três composições. Também foram identificadas as fases cristalinas Fe2Zr e FeZr3. A seqüência de fases formadas revelou depender da composição da multicamada como-depositada e também da temperatura de tratamento. O diagrama esquemático de Energia Livre de Gibbs foi proposto de forma a comportar os resultados experimentais. Um modelo de crescimento planar de fases reagidas na interface de pares de reação foi aplicado às condições do crescimento multifásico observadas no presente trabalho.

Estudo do tratamento de inclusões com cálcio na fabricação do aço SAE 8620

O tratamento de modificação de óxidos (e sulfetos) com cálcio tornou-se usual na produção de aços de elevada limpeza interna. O conhecimento da composição química de inclusões, dependendo da composição do aço líquido, é requisito fundamental para garantir a lingotabilidade desses aços e propriedades mecânicas adequadas dependendo da aplicação dos mesmos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi o estudo da composição química de inclusões ao longo do processo de refino secundário, com enfoque no tratamento com cálcio. Para tanto, foram comparados dados experimentais (planta industrial) com simulações via termodinâmica computacional (software FactSage). A metodologia utilizada consistiu em: a) obtenção de dados experimentais para determinar os dados de entrada das simulações; b) utilizar os bancos de dados e a rotina de minimização da Energia de Gibbs do software FactSage, para calcular o equilíbrio entre as fases aço líquido (modelo associado) e inclusões (escória - modelo quase-químico modificado) e; c) comparar os resultados obtidos na planta industrial com os simulados via FactSage. O acompanhamento do processo de elaboração do aço na Gerdau Aços Especiais Piratini (AEP) foi fundamental para identificar eventuais desvios de processo, bem como para interpretar eventuais discrepâncias entre os resultados Na simulação de todas as provas, verificou-se que é fundamental um baixo desvio-padrão na análise dos elementos, se o objetivo é simular um padrão de elaboração de aço. Como resultado deste trabalho, verificou-se ainda que entre 10 e 14 ppm é a faixa ideal de cálcio para a formação de inclusões líquidas com teor mínimo de CaS, para os níveis de oxigênio, enxofre e alumínio do SAE 8620 na etapa final do processo de elaboração desse aço na AEP. É importante destacar que faixas mais amplas de cálcio podem ser utilizadas, dependendo do tipo de processo na aciaria e do tipo de produto requerido.

Primed and prejudice: the Kurantha-Bothata study

O sistema de peer review é uma ferramenta fundamental nas publicações científicas, cujo objetivo é selecionar os estudos que contribuem para o avanço do conhecimento. No entanto, questionamentos tem surgido acerca de vieses no sistema de peer review. Um exemplo é o estudo "Lost science in the third world" (Gibbs, 1995), que afirma existirem sérios vieses em relação à origem dos pesquisadores. Ainda que haja evidências para suportar esse argumento, nosso conhecimento acerca de vieses no sistema de peer review ainda é limitado, já que poucos estudos controlados podem ser encontrados na literatura. No presente trabalho, foi realizado um exeprimento no qual os sujeitos deveriam avaliar um artigo sem qualquer identificação de autoria, exceto por uma nota de rodapé onde constava o nome da instituição fictícia que financiou a pesquisa. Sob uma condição, o nome da agência financiadora é associado com o continente africano, enquanto na outra condição, o nome da agência é associado ao continente europeu. Os resultados dão indícios de que possa haver um viés relacionado às origens do autor.