Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Results of Heinrich event 1 simulation from the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)

We investigated changes in tropical climate and vegetation cover associated with abrupt climate change during Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP) using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM) and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Tropical South American and African pollen records suggest that the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean during HE1 influenced the tropics through a southward shift of the rain belt. In this study, we simulated the HE1 by applying a freshwater perturbation to the North Atlantic Ocean. The resulting slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was followed by a temperature seesaw between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. The shift and the response pattern of the tropical vegetation around the Atlantic Ocean were more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. For tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were modeled around 10° S in the CCSM3 but not in the UVic ESCM. In tropical Africa, the grass cover increased and the tree cover decreased around 15° N in the UVic ESCM and around 10° N in the CCSM3. In the CCSM3 model, the tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia responded to the abrupt climate change during the HE1, which could not be found in the UVic ESCM. The biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.

Table 1: Main characteristics of the BIOTA observatories included in this study & Table 3: Occurrence of termite taxa at the observatories

Termites are the most important soil ecosystem engineers of semi-arid and arid habitats. They enhance decomposition processes as well as the subsequent mineralisation of nutrients by bacteria and fungi. Through their construction of galleries, nests and mounds, they promote soil turnover and influence the distribution of nutrients and also alter texture and hydrological properties of soils, thereby affecting the heterogeneity of their ecosystem. The main aim of the present thesis was to define the impact of termites on ecosys-tem functioning in a semi-arid ecosystem. In a baseline study, I assessed the diversity of termite taxa in relation to the amount of precipitation, the vegetation patterns and the land use systems at several sites in Namibia. Subsequently, I focussed on a species that is highly abundant in many African savannas, the fungus growing and mound building species Macro-termes michaelseni (Sjöstedt, 1914). I asked how this species influences the spatial hetero-geneity of soil and vegetation patterns. From repeated samplings at 13 sites in Namibia, I obtained 17 termite taxa of 15 genera. While the type of land use seems to have a minor effect on the termite fauna, the mean annual precipitation explained 96% and the Simpson index of vascular plant diversity 81% of the variation in taxa diversity. The number of termite taxa increased with both of these explanation variables. In contrast to former studies on Macrotermes mounds in several regions of Africa that I reviewed, soil analyses from M. michaelseni mounds in the central Namibian savanna revealed that they contain much higher nitrogen contents when compared to their parent material. Further analyses revealed that nitrate forms a major component of the nitrogen content in termite mounds. As nitrate solves easily in water, evaporation processes are most probably responsible for the transport of solved nitrates to the mound surface and their accumulation there. The analysed mounds in central Namibia contained higher sand propor-tions compared to the mounds of the former studies. Through the higher percentage of coarse and middle sized pores, water moves more easily in sandy soils compared to more clayey soils. In consequence, evaporation-driven nitrate accumulation can occur in the studied mounds at high rates. ff...

Fossil biotas from the Okanagan Highlands, southern British Columbia and northeastern Washington State: climates and ecosystems across an Eocene landscape

The late Early to early Middle Eocene Okanagan Highlands fossil sites, spanning -1000 km north-south (northeastern Washington State, southern British Columbia) provide an opportunity to reconstruct biotic communities across a broad upland landscape during the warmest part of the Cenozoic. Plant taxa from these fossil sites are characteristic of the modern eastern North American deciduous forest zone, principally the mixed mesophytic forest, but also include extinct taxa, taxa known only from eastern Asian mesothermal forests, and a small number of taxa restricted to the present-day North American west coast coniferous biome. In this preliminary report, paleoclimates and forest types are reconstructed using collections from Republic in Washington State, USA., and Princeton, Quilchena, Falkland, McAbee, Hat Creek, Horsefly, and Driftwood Canyon in British Columbia, Canada. Both leaf margin analysis (LMA) and quantitative bioclimatic analysis of identified nearest living relatives of megaflora indicated upper microthermal to lower mesothermal moist environments (MAT -10-15 degrees C, CMMT > 0 degrees C, MAP > 100 cm/year). Some taxa common to most sites suggest cool conditions (e.g., Abies, other Pinaceae; Alnus, other Betulaceae). However, all floras contain a substantive broadleaf deciduous element (e.g., Fagaceae, Juglandaceae) and conifers (e.g., Metasequoia) with the bioclimatic analysis yielding slightly higher MAT than LMA. Thermophilic (principally mesothermal) taxa include various insects, the aquatic fern Azolla, palms, the banana relative Ensete, taxodiaceous conifers, Eucommia and Gordonia, taxa which may have occurred near their climatic limits. The mixture of thermophilic and temperate insect and plant taxa indicates low-temperature seasonality (i.e., highly equable climate).

PENTECOSTAIS, POLÍTICAS PÚBLICAS E MEIO AMBIENTE: Estudo Socioambiental em Rio Grande da Serra, periferia urbana no Grande ABC Paulista

O tema central de nossa pesquisa são as interações dos pentecostais com as questões socioambientais. Portanto, trata-se do estudo do grau de envolvimento dos pentecostais com as políticas públicas ambientais e o meio ambiente em periferia urbana - Rio Grande da Serra - Grande ABC Paulista. A intensa presença dos pentecostais nos bairros mais periféricos da cidade permitiu-nos indagar sobre as relações que esses mantêm com a expansão urbana nas áreas a serem protegidas, com os impactos ambientais, com consumo e pós-consumo na região, na participação de políticas públicas, bem como, os discursos e práticas religiosas interferem no comportamento dos religiosos frente a todas essas questões, uma vez que, a cidade está inserida em Área de Proteção e Recuperação de Mananciais, imbricada em um dos biomas terrestres mais ameaçados de extinção - o Bioma da Mata Atlântica. Como procedimentos metodológicos servimo-nos das observações empíricas, registro dos aspectos e impactos ambientais, aplicação de formulários e entrevistas com roteiro semiestruturado, elementos que constituíram uma tríade instrumental analítica. Concluímos que os pentecostais embora sejam atuantes em questões sociais, todavia, não o são quanto às questões ambientais na cidade, pois, não participam de maneira mais efetiva nas políticas públicas ambientais. Entretanto, os pentecostais demonstram uma potencialidade em participar do planejamento urbano participativo e dos processos de gestão urbana a médio e longos prazos, desde que sejam estimulados, primando dessa maneira, pela proteção, defesa e justiça ambiental nessas áreas de vulnerabilidade socioambiental.

Geographical variation in carbon dioxide fluxes from soils in agro-ecosystems and its implications for life-cycle assessment

1. Exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soils can contribute significantly to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Due to variations in soil type, climatic onditions and land management practices, exchange of CO2 can differ markedly in different geographical locations. The food industry is developing carbon footprints for their products necessitating integration of CO2 exchange from soils with other CO2 emissions along the food chain. It may be advantageous to grow certain crops in different geographical locations to minimize CO2 emissions from the soil, and this may provide potential to offset other emissions in the food chain, such as transport. 2. Values are derived for the C balance of soils growing horticultural crops in the UK, Spain and Uganda. Net ecosystem production (NEP) is firstly calculated from the difference in net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). Both NPP and Rh were estimated from intensive direct field measurements. Secondly, net biome production (NBP) is calculated by subtracting the crop biomass from NEP to give an indication of C balance. The importance of soil exchange is discussed in the light of recent discussions on carbon footprints and within the context of food life-cycle assessment (LCA). 3. The amount of crop relative to the biomass and the Rh prevailing in the different countries were the dominant factors influencing the magnitude of NEP and NBP. The majority of the biomass for lettuce Lactuca sativa and vining peas Pisum sativum, was removed from the field as crop; therefore, NEP and NBP were mainly negative. This was amplified for lettuces grown in Uganda (-16·5 and -17 t C ha-1 year-1 compared to UK and Spain -4·8 to 7·4 and -5·1 to 6·3 t C ha-1 year-1 for NEP and NBP, respectively) where the climate elevated Rh. 4. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrates the importance of soil emissions in the overall life cycle of vegetables. Variability in such emissions suggests that assigning a single value to food carbon footprints may not be adequate, even within a country. Locations with high heterotrophic soil respiration, such as Spain and Uganda (21·9 and 21·6 t C ha-1 year-1, respectively), could mitigate the negative effects of climate on the C costs of crop production by growth of crops with greater returns of residue to the soil. This would minimize net CO2 emissions from these agricultural ecosystems.

A multi-faceted diagnostic approach to lung infections in patients with cystic fibrosis

One in 3,000 people in the US are born with cystic fibrosis (CF), a genetic disorder affecting the reproductive system, pancreas, and lungs. Lung disease caused by chronic bacterial and fungal infections is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in CF. Identities of the microbes are traditionally determined by culturing followed by phenotypic and biochemical assays. It was first thought that the bacterial infections were caused by a select handful of bacteria such as S. aureus, H. influenzae, B. cenocepacia, and P. aeruginosa. With the advent of PCR and molecular techniques, the polymicrobial nature of the CF lung became evident. The CF lung contains numerous bacteria and the communities are diverse and unique to each patient. The total complexity of the bacterial infections is still being determined. In addition, only a few members of the fungal communities have been identified. Much of the fungal community composition is still a mystery. This dissertation addresses this gap in knowledge. A snap shot of CF sputa bacterial community was obtained using the length heterogeneity-PCR community profiling technique. The profiles show that south Florida CF patients have a unique, diverse, and dynamic bacterial community which changes over time. The identities of the bacteria and fungi present were determined using the state-of-the-art 454 sequencing. Sequencing results show that the CF lung microbiome contains commonly cultured pathogenic bacteria, organisms considered a part of the healthy core biome, and novel organisms. Understanding the dynamic changes of these identified microbes will ultimately lead to better therapeutical interventions. Early detection is key in reducing the lung damage caused by chronic infections. Thus, there is a need for accurate and sensitive diagnostic tests. This issue was addressed by designing a bacterial diagnostic tool targeted towards CF pathogens using SPR. By identifying the organisms associated with the CF lung and understanding their community interactions, patients can receive better treatment and live longer.

A Multi-Faceted Diagnostic Approach to Lung Infections in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis

One in 3,000 people in the US are born with cystic fibrosis (CF), a genetic disorder affecting the reproductive system, pancreas, and lungs. Lung disease caused by chronic bacterial and fungal infections is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in CF. Identities of the microbes are traditionally determined by culturing followed by phenotypic and biochemical assays. It was first thought that the bacterial infections were caused by a select handful of bacteria such as S. aureus, H. influenzae, B. cenocepacia, and P. aeruginosa. With the advent of PCR and molecular techniques, the polymicrobial nature of the CF lung became evident. The CF lung contains numerous bacteria and the communities are diverse and unique to each patient. The total complexity of the bacterial infections is still being determined. In addition, only a few members of the fungal communities have been identified. Much of the fungal community composition is still a mystery. This dissertation addresses this gap in knowledge. A snap shot of CF sputa bacterial community was obtained using the length heterogeneity-PCR community profiling technique. The profiles show that south Florida CF patients have a unique, diverse, and dynamic bacterial community which changes over time. The identities of the bacteria and fungi present were determined using the state-of-the-art 454 sequencing. Sequencing results show that the CF lung microbiome contains commonly cultured pathogenic bacteria, organisms considered a part of the healthy core biome, and novel organisms. Understanding the dynamic changes of these identified microbes will ultimately lead to better therapeutical interventions. Early detection is key in reducing the lung damage caused by chronic infections. Thus, there is a need for accurate and sensitive diagnostic tests. This issue was addressed by designing a bacterial diagnostic tool targeted towards CF pathogens using SPR. By identifying the organisms associated with the CF lung and understanding their community interactions, patients can receive better treatment and live longer.

Percepções ambientais de comunidades rurais e indicadores de sustentabilidade como subsídios à conservação de áreas de caatinga no Rio Grande do Norte

Environmental degradation is a global problem that particularly affects areas subject to seasonal climatic variations, such as the brazilian semiarid region, namely the Caatinga Domain. Combined with other negative factors, such as natural resource misuse and disorderly land occupation, the consequences of Environmental Degradation have challenged science in the quest for addressing the resulting social and environmental problems. Accordingly, Environmental Perception methodology, by analyzing the concepts, attitudes and values, (especially those pertaining to environmental conservation) represent an important tool in studies that address the relationship between the environment and human actions. Sustainability Indicators are also relevant tools to assess the possible causes and consequences of environmental problems. Among several Sustainability Indicators available, the PressuresState-Impact-Response (PSIR) method is an analytical tool that permits the grouping of factors affecting sustainability as well as their consequences for nature and human health, and thus indicate mitigating actions for society and the public authorities. From this perspective, three areas of Caatinga were studied in Rio Grande do Norte state: Seridó Ecological Station (ESEC), Municipality of Serra Negra do Norte; Private Natural Reserve Stoessel de Brito (PNRSB), Municipality of Jucurutu; and part of the Serra de Santana, Municipality of Tenente Laurentino Cruz. The areas are both legally protected and unprotected and subject to diferent management protocols, though their share the common characteristic of human misuse of natural resources. In this scenario, this thesis´ main goal was to introduce the rural communities into the conservation process, using the results of Environmental Perception of such communities, combined with the analysis of the sustainability of municipalities through PSIR. Information on Environmental Perception was obtained from primary and secondary data from previous studies carried out in the ESEC Seridó and PRNP Stoessel de Brito. Additional data was obtained through direct observation and interview forms applied to rural communities in the Municipality of Tenente Laurentino Cruz. The results showed that respondents possessed a broad knowledge regarding environmental degradation, its causes and consequences for the caatinga biome. PEIR analysis showed that environmental degradation was smaller in countries with protected areas, as compared to those without. The population´s knowledge about environmental degradation and their acceptance of conservation units, as showed by Environmental Perception Analysis, coupled with the results of PEIR, suggest that those attitudes may foster actions aimed at reduction of environmental degradation in the Caatinga domain

Conservação de material genético de espécies silvestres do bioma caatinga utilizando a manipulação oócitos inclusos em folículos ovarianos pré antrais (MOIFOPA)

The objective of the present thesis was to use the manipulation of oocytes enclosed in preantral follicles (MOEPF) as a tool for the female gametes rescue and optimization, from wild species of Caatinga biome. The thesis was divided into 4 experiments. At first experiment, it was performed the estimative and description of the agouti (Dasyprocta leporina) preantral follicles (PF) histologic and ultrastructural features, in which it was estimated 4419.8 ± 532.26 and 5397.52 ± 574.91 follicles for the right and left ovary, respectively, and the majority (86,63%) belonged to the primordial follicles category (P<0.05). Most of the population consists of morphologically normal follicles (70.78%), presenting a large and central nuclei and uniform cytoplasm. At ultrastructural evaluation it was verified the presence of a great number of round mitochondrias associated to lipid droplets. In the second experiment, it was performed the estimative and description of yellow-toothed cavies (Galea spixii) PF characteristics, also, the evaluation of the effect of solid surface vitrification (SSV) on the in situ PF morphology. The total of 416.0 ± 342.8 PF was estimated for the ovary pair and the presence of a large quantity of primary follicles (P<0.05) was evidenced. Most of the PF was morphologically normal (94.6%), in which the oocyte nuclei presented condensed granules of heterochromatin. Round or elongated shaped mitochondria constituted the most abundant organelles. In regard of the SSV, the protocol using the dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) 3M possibility the preservation of 69.5% of morphologically normal PF, which was evidenced by the light and transmission electronic microscopy. At third experiment, the evaluation of the SSV procedure on the morphology and viability in situ PF form collared peccaries (Pecari tajacu) was performed. No differences were observed among treatments, in which the use of DMSO, ethylene glycol (EG) and dimethylformamide (DMF) as cryoprotectants, regardless its concentration, promoted the morphology preservation of much than 70% of PF. Concerning the PF viability, the DMSO and EG promoted the best preservation. The fourth experiment aimed to evaluate the effect of α MEM+ or TCM199 associated or not to 50 ng of FSHr on the morphology, activation and growth of collared peccaries PF, in vitro cultured (IVC) during 1 or 7 days and the effect on the extracellular matrix (ECM). After 7 days of IVC only the use of TCM199/FSH maintained the proportion of intact PF, similar to day 1(63.2%), however, no differences were observed among treatments (P>0.05). Also, an improvement of the proportion of intact growing PF was verified (P>0.05). By the Ag-NOR analysis it was observed that only the treatment using TCM199/FSH promoted the maintenance of cell proliferation similar to day 1 (P>0.05). The picrosirius red stain revealed that ECM remained intact in all treatments (P>0.05). Thus, as the general conclusion, the use of MOEPF in the refereed species allowed the knowledge of aspects related to its reproductive morphology and physiology, enabling the germplasm conservation, with the possibility of germplasm bank formation, as the elucidation of mechanisms related to the PF survive and in vitro development.

Crescimento inicial e morfologia foliar em plantas de Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth. Em função do manejo microbiano, sob estresse salino

The sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia Benth.) is an endemic species of the Caatinga biome, considered tolerant to salt and water stress. The process of salinization of soil and groundwater and surface water is one of the most important problems of environmental degradation, with its harmful effects being more pronounced in the areas of arid and semiarid regions, and rapidly growing in many parts of the globe, causing problems of the major crop yield. Organic conditioners as barnyard manure, and rice hulls can contribute to reducing the PST, possibly due to the release of CO2 and the production of organic acids during the decomposition of organic matter, and act as sources of calcium and magnesium and inhibit the availability sodium. The intimate association of mycorrhizae and beneficial to plants results in increased uptake of water and nutrients by plants, especially phosphorus, due to their low mobility in soil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the initial growth of thrush seedlings under inoculation with mycorrhizal fungi and fertilized with manure corral and irrigated with water of different salinity levels. The experiment was conducted in greenhouse conditions of vegetation on the premises of the Agricultural School of Jundiaí - UFRN, Campus Macaíba. The adopted statistical design was randomized composed of twelve treatments - three substrates (sterile soil, manure and FMA), four salinity levels (0.2, 1.5, 3.0 and 4.5 dS m-1 ) and five repetitions, totaling sixty experimental units. The results indicate that inoculation with mycorrhizal fungi own contributions to the growth of plants, especially in roots and shoots, which suggests that its application is beneficial in establishing thrush plants in natural conditions, with poor soil in P. Levels salinity caused no effects with statistical significance in plant development, indicating Sabia resistance to it.

Desenvolvimento e caracterização de nanoemulsões cosméticas contendo extrato de Opuntia ficus-indica L. Mill e avaliação in vivo da eficácia hidratante

Nanoemulsions are emulsified systems, characterized for reduced droplet size (50- 500nm), which the main characteristic are kinect stability and thermodynamic instability. These are promising systems on cosmetic area due to their droplet size that provide different advantages when compared to conventional systems, among others, larger surface area and better permeability. The Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill is a plant cultivated on Caatinga Brazilian biome, which has great socioeconomic importance to region. This plant shows carbohydrates utilized for cosmetic industry as moisturizing active in their chemical composition. The aim of study was to develop, characterize, evaluate stability and moisturizing efficacy of cosmetic nanoemulsions added to Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill extract. Nanoemulsions preparation was made using a low energy method. Different nanoemulsions were formulated varying the ratio of oil, water and surfactant phases beyond xanthan gum (0.5% e 1%) and Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill hydroglycolic extract addition on 1% and 3%. Obtained nanoemulsions were submitted to preliminary and accelerated stability tests. The evaluated parameters monitored were: macroscopic aspect, pH value, droplet size, zeta potential and polydispersion index, during 60 days on different temperatures. Stable formulations were submitted to moisturizing efficacy assessment by capacitance and transepidermal water loss methodologies during 5 hours. Stable samples were white and showed homogeneous and fluid aspect, pH value was inside ideal range (4,5-6,0) to topical application and droplet size under 200nm characterizing these system as nanoemulsions. Developed nanoemulsions did not decrease transepidermal water loss, however increased the water content on stratum corneum, highlighting the nanoemulsions containing 0.5% of xanthan gum and 1% of hydroglycolic extract. This work presents cosmetic moisturizing nanoemulsions composed to vegetal raw material from Brazilian Caatinga with potential to be used on cosmetic area.

Morfometria, variação anual no peso e demografia do Tico-tico-rei-cinza (Lanio pileatus: thraupidae) em dois ambientes de caatinga no nordeste do Brasil

The caatinga is considered the only exclusively Brazilian biome, with a total area of 735.000km². It is estimated that about 59% of this area has already been removed and only 2% are protected in conservations units. The region is characteristic by strong seasonality and heterogeneity in their environments. This paper sets generate information on morphological and population patterns Lanio pilatus in two areas of caatinga of Estação Ecológica do Seridó (ESEC – Seridó), Serra Negra do Norte - RN. Data collection was performed in six phases between July 2012 and December 2014, covering the end of the dry and rainy seasons in the region. The captures were performed with nets and individuals captured were marked with metal rings and measured (weight, wing length, tail, tarsus, culmen and tip of the bill to nostril). Through these measures, we observed that only males of open area range in weight during the dry and rainy season, youngs were significantly lower for all parameters measured, and males were larger than females in three characteristics (weight, wing length and tail) in open area and only one (wing length) in the closed area. The population parameters were generated from the mark-capture-recapture technique by program MARK, using the techniques of robust design and CJS. The survival probability of detection and population estimates varied with time. Only individuals of open area fluctuated in their estimates during the study. Overall, the environment was a great mediator of results which increases the need for more studies on the life history of the species in the region.

Influência das condições ambientais no verdor da vegetação da caatinga frente às mudanças climáticas

The Caatinga biome, a semi-arid climate ecosystem found in northeast Brazil, presents low rainfall regime and strong seasonality. It has the most alarming climate change projections within the country, with air temperature rising and rainfall reduction with stronger trends than the global average predictions. Climate change can present detrimental results in this biome, reducing vegetation cover and changing its distribution, as well as altering all ecosystem functioning and finally influencing species diversity. In this context, the purpose of this study is to model the environmental conditions (rainfall and temperature) that influence the Caatinga biome productivity and to predict the consequences of environmental conditions in the vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was used to estimate vegetation greenness (presence and density) in the area. Considering the strong spatial and temporal autocorrelation as well as the heterogeneity of the data, various GLS models were developed and compared to obtain the best model that would reflect rainfall and temperature influence on vegetation greenness. Applying new climate change scenarios in the model, environmental determinants modification, rainfall and temperature, negatively influenced vegetation greenness in the Caatinga biome. This model was used to create potential vegetation maps for current and future of Caatinga cover considering 20% decrease in precipitation and 1 °C increase in temperature until 2040, 35% decrease in precipitation and 2.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2041-2070 and 50% decrease in precipitation and 4.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2071-2100. The results suggest that the ecosystem functioning will be affected on the future scenario of climate change with a decrease of 5.9% of the vegetation greenness until 2040, 14.2% until 2070 and 24.3% by the end of the century. The Caatinga vegetation in lower altitude areas (most of the biome) will be more affected by climatic changes.