Studies on Binary Time Series Models with Applications to Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance

This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

Integrative functional genomics analysis of sustained polyploidy phenotypes in breast cancer cells identifies an oncogenic profile for GINS2

Aneuploidy is among the most obvious differences between normal and cancer cells. However, mechanisms contributing to development and maintenance of aneuploid cell growth are diverse and incompletely understood. Functional genomics analyses have shown that aneuploidy in cancer cells is correlated with diffuse gene expression signatures and that aneuploidy can arise by a variety of mechanisms, including cytokinesis failures, DNA endoreplication and possibly through polyploid intermediate states. Here, we used a novel cell spot microarray technique to identify genes with a loss-of-function effect inducing polyploidy and/or allowing maintenance of polyploid cell growth of breast cancer cells. Integrative genomics profiling of candidate genes highlighted GINS2 as a potential oncogene frequently overexpressed in clinical breast cancers as well as in several other cancer types. Multivariate analysis indicated GINS2 to be an independent prognostic factor for breast cancer outcome (p = 0.001). Suppression of GINS2 expression effectively inhibited breast cancer cell growth and induced polyploidy. In addition, protein level detection of nuclear GINS2 accurately distinguished actively proliferating cancer cells suggesting potential use as an operational biomarker.

Functional role of the Mso1p-Sec1p complex in membrane fusion regulation

Sec1/Munc18 (SM) protein family members are evolutionary conserved proteins. They perform an essential, albeit poorly understood function in SNARE complex formation in membrane fusion. In addition to the SNARE complex components, only a few SM protein binding proteins are known. Typically, their binding modes to SM proteins and their contribution to the membrane fusion regulation is poorly characterised. We identified Mso1p as a novel Sec1p interacting partner. It was shown that Mso1p and Sec1p interact at sites of polarised secretion and that this localisation is dependent on the Rab GTPase Sec4p and its GEF Sec2p. Using targeted mutagenesis and N- and C-terminal deletants, it was discovered that the interaction between an N-terminal peptide of Mso1p and the putative Syntaxin N-peptide binding area in Sec1p domain 1 is important for membrane fusion regulation. The yeast Syntaxin homologues Sso1p and Sso2p lack the N-terminal peptide. Our results show that in addition to binding to the putative N-peptide binding area in Sec1p, Mso1p can interact with Sso1p and Sso2p. This result suggests that Mso1p can mimic the N-peptide binding to facilitate membrane fusion. In addition to Mso1p, a novel role in membrane fusion regulation was revealed for the Sec1p C-terminal tail, which is missing in its mammalian homologues. Deletion of the Sec1p-tail results in temperature sensitive growth and reduced sporulation. Using in vivo and in vitro experiments, it was shown that the Sec1p-tail mediates SNARE complex binding and assembly. These results propose a regulatory role for the Sec1p-tail in SNARE complex formation. Furthermore, two novel interaction partners for Mso1p, the Rab GTPase Sec4p and plasma membrane phospholipids, were identified. The Sec4p link was identified using Bimolecular Fluorescence Complementation assays with Mso1p and the non-SNARE binding Sec1p(1-657). The assay revealed that Mso1p can target Sec1p(1-657) to sites of secretion. This effect is mediated via the Mso1p C-terminus, which previously has been genetically linked to Sec4p. These results and in vitro binding experiments suggest that Mso1p acts in cooperation with the GTP-bound form of Sec4p on vesicle-like structures prior to membrane fusion. Mso1p shares homology with the PIP2 binding domain of the mammalian Munc18 binding Mint proteins. It was shown both in vivo and in vitro that Mso1p is a phospholipid inserting protein and that this insertion is mediated by the conserved Mso1p amino terminus. In vivo, the Mso1p phospholipid binding is needed for sporulation and Mso1p-Sec1p localisation at the sites of secretion at the plasma membrane. The results reveal a novel layer of membrane fusion regulation in exocytosis and propose a coordinating role for Mso1p in connection with membrane lipids, Sec1p, Sec4p and SNARE complexes in this process.

Lattice density-functional theory on graphene

A density-functional approach on the hexagonal graphene lattice is developed using an exact numerical solution to the Hubbard model as the reference system. Both nearest-neighbour and up to third nearest-neighbour hoppings are considered and exchange-correlation potentials within the local density approximation are parameterized for both variants. The method is used to calculate the ground-state energy and density of graphene flakes and infinite graphene sheet. The results are found to agree with exact diagonalization for small systems, also if local impurities are present. In addition, correct ground-state spin is found in the case of large triangular and bowtie flakes out of the scope of exact diagonalization methods.

X-ray Crystallographic Analysis of the Complexes of Enoyl Acyl Carrier Protein Reductase of Plasmodium falciparum with Triclosan Variants to Elucidate the Importance of Different Functional Groups in Enzyme Inhibition

Triclosan, a well-known inhibitor of Enoyl Acyl Carrier Protein Reductase (ENR) from several pathogenic organisms, is a promising lead compound to design effective drugs. We have solved the X-ray crystal structures of Plasmodium falciparum ENR in complex with triclosan variants having different substituted and unsubstituted groups at different key functional locations. The structures revealed that 4 and 2' substituted compounds have more interactions with the protein, cofactor, and solvents when compared with triclosan. New water molecules were found to interact with some of these inhibitors. Substitution at the 2' position of triclosan caused the relocation of a conserved water molecule, leading to an additional hydrogen bond with the inhibitor. This observation can help in conserved water-based inhibitor design. 2' and 4' unsubstituted compounds showed a movement away from the hydrophobic pocket to compensate for the interactions made by the halogen groups of triclosan. This compound also makes additional interactions with the protein and cofactor which compensate for the lost interactions due to the unsubstitution at 2' and 4'. In cell culture, this inhibitor shows less potency, which indicates that the chlorines at 2' and 4' positions increase the ability of the inhibitor to cross multilayered membranes. This knowledge helps us to modify the different functional groups of triclosan to get more potent inhibitors. (C) 2010 IUBMB IUBMB Life, 62(6): 467-476.

Hexagonally ordered arrays of metallic nanodots from thin films of functional block copolymers

We demonstrate a new and simple route to fabricate highly dense arrays of hexagonally close packed inorganic nanodots using functional diblock copolymer (PS-b-P4VP) thin films. The deposition of pre-synthesized inorganic nanoparticles selectively into the P4VP domains of PS-b-P4VP thin films, followed by removal of the polymer, led to highly ordered metallic patterns identical to the order of the starting thin film. Examples of Au, Pt and Pd nanodot arrays are presented. The affinity of the different metal nanoparticles towards P4VP chains is also understood by extending this approach to PS-b-P4VP micellar thin films. The procedure used here is simple, eco-friendly, and compatible with the existing silicon-based technology. Also the method could be applied to various other block copolymer morphologies for generating 1-dimensional (1D) and 2-dimensional (2D) structures. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PROMIDS: A PROtotype multi-rIng data flow system for functional programming languages

This paper presents a detailed description of the hardware design and implementation of PROMIDS: a PROtotype Multi-rIng Data flow System for functional programming languages. The hardware constraints and the design trade-offs are discussed. The design of the functional units is described in detail. Finally, we report our experience with PROMIDS.

Hydrolysis of Organophosphate Esters: Phosphotriesterase Activity of Metallo-beta-lactamase and Its Functional Mimics

The phosphotriesterase (PTE) activity of a series of binuclear and mononuclear zinc(II) complexes and metallo-beta-lactamase (m beta 1) from Bacillus cereus was studied. The binuclear complex 1, which exhibits good m beta 1 activity, shows poor PTE activity. In contrast,complex 2, a poor mimic of m beta 1, exhibits much higher activity than 1 The replacement of Cl- ligands by OH- is important for the high PTE activity of complex 2 because this complex does not show any catalytic activity in methanol. The natural enzyme m beta 1 from B. cereus is also found to be an inefficient catalyst in the hydrolysis of phosphotriesters. These observations indicate that the binding of beta-lactam substrates at the binuclear zinc(II) center is different from that of phosphotriesters. Furthermore, phosphodiesters, the products from the hydrolysis of triesters, significantly inhibit the PTE activity of m beta 1 and its functional mimics. Although the mononuclear complexes 3 and 4 exhibited significant m beta 1 activity, these complexes are found to be almost inactive in the hydrolysis of phosphotriesters. These observations indicate that the elimination of phosphodiesters from the reaction site is important for the PTE activity of zinc(II) complexes.

Functional Surfaces for Microfluidics in Proteomic Analysis

Microchips for use in biomolecular analysis show a lot of promise for medical diagnostics and biomedical basic research. Among the potential advantages are more sensitive and faster analyses as well as reduced cost and sample consumption. Due to scaling laws, the surface are to volume ratios of microfluidic chips is very high. Because of this, tailoring the surface properties and surface functionalization are very important technical issues for microchip development. This thesis studies two different types of functional surfaces, surfaces for open surface capillary microfluidics and surfaces for surface assisted laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry, and combinations thereof. Open surface capillary microfluidics can be used to transport and control liquid samples on easily accessible open surfaces simply based on surface forces, without any connections to pumps or electrical power sources. Capillary filling of open partially wetting grooves is shown to be possible with certain geometries, aspect ratios and contact angles, and a theoretical model is developed to identify complete channel filling domains, as well as partial filling domains. On the other hand, partially wetting surfaces with triangular microstructures can be used for achieving directional wetting, where the water droplets do not spread isotropically, but instead only spread to a predetermined sector. Furthermore, by patterning completely wetting and superhydrophobic areas on the same surface, complex droplet shapes are achieved, as the water stretches to make contact with the wetting surface, but does not enter into the superhydrophobic domains. Surfaces for surface assisted laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry are developed by applying various active thin film coatings on multiple substrates, in order to separate surface and bulk effects. Clear differences are observed between both surface and substrate layers. The best performance surfaces consisted of amorphous silicon coating and an inorganic-organic hybrid substrate, with nanopillars and nanopores. These surfaces are used for matrix-free ionization of drugs, peptides and proteins, and for some analytes, the detection limits were in the high attomoles. Microfluidics and laser desorption ionization surfaces are combined on a functionalized drying platforms, where the surface is used to control the shape of the deposited analyte droplet, and the shape of the initial analyte droplet affects the dried droplet solute deposition pattern. The deposited droplets can then directly detected by mass spectrometry. Utilizing this approach, results of analyte concentration, splitting and separation are demonstrated.

Functional limitations and quality of life in schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders

There is substantial evidence of the decreased functional capacity, especially everyday functioning, of people with psychotic disorder in clinical settings, but little research about it in the general population. The aim of the present study was to provide information on the magnitude of functional capacity problems in persons with psychotic disorder compared with the general population. It estimated the prevalence and severity of limitations in vision, mobility, everyday functioning and quality of life of persons with psychotic disorder in the Finnish population and determined the factors affecting them. This study is based on the Health 2000 Survey, which is a nationally representative survey of 8028 Finns aged 30 and older. The psychotic diagnoses of the participants were assessed in the Psychoses of Finland survey, a substudy of Health 2000. The everyday functioning of people with schizophrenia is studied widely, but one important factor, mobility has been neglected. Persons with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychotic disorders, but not affective psychoses had a significantly increased risk of having both self-reported and test-based mobility limitations as well as weak handgrip strength. Schizophrenia was associated independently with mobility limitations even after controlling for lifestyle-related factors and chronic medical conditions. Another significant factor associated with problems in everyday functioning in participants with schizophrenia was reduced visual acuity. Their vision was examined significantly less often during the five years before the visual acuity measurement than the general population. In general, persons with schizophrenia and other non-affective psychotic disorder had significantly more limitations in everyday functioning, deficits in verbal fluency and in memory than the general population. More severe negative symptoms, depression, older age, verbal memory deficits, worse expressive speech and reduced distance vision were associated with limitations in everyday functioning. Of all the psychotic disorders, schizoaffective disorder was associated with the largest losses of quality of life, and bipolar I disorder with equal or smaller losses than schizophrenia. However, the subjective loss of qualify of life associated with psychotic disorders may be smaller than objective disability, which warrants attention. Depressive symptoms were the most important determinant of poor quality of life in all psychotic disorders. In conclusion, subjects with psychotic disorders need regular somatic health monitoring. Also, health care workers should evaluate the overall quality of life and depression of subjects with psychotic disorders in order to provide them with the basic necessities of life.

Functional linkages can reveal protein complexes for structure determination

The study of molecular machines, and protein complexes in general, is a growth area of biology. Is there a computational method for inferring which combinations of proteins in an organism are likely to form a crystallizable complex? We use the Protein Data Bank (PDB) to assess the usefulness of inferred functional protein linkages for this task. We find that of 242 nonredundant prokaryotic protein complexes (complexes excluding structural variants of the same protein) from organisms that are shared between the current PDB and the Prolinks functional linkage database, 44% (107/242) contain proteins that are linked at high-confidence by one or more methods of computed functional linkages. This suggests that computing functional linkages will be useful in defining protein complexes for structural studies. We offer a database of such inferred linkages corresponding to likely protein complexes for some 629,952 pairs of proteins in 154 prokaryotes and archea.