Measuring Dependency Ratios using National Transfer Accounts. CEPS Working Document No. 420/April 2016

It is now widely recognised that the socio-economic changes that ageing societies will bring about are poorly captured by the traditional demographic dependency ratios (DDRs), such as the old-age dependency ratio that relates the number of people aged 65+ to the working-age population. Future older generations will have increasingly better health and are likely to work longer. By combining population projections and National Transfer Accounts (NTA) data for seven European countries, we project the quantitative impact of ageing on public finances until 2040 and compare it to projected DDRs. We then simulate the public finance impact of changes in three key indicators related to the policy responses to population ageing: net immigration, healthy ageing and longer working lives. We do this by linking age-specific public health transfers and labour market participation rates to changes in mortality. Four main findings emerge: first, the simple old-age dependency ratio overestimates the future public finance challenges faced by the countries studied – significantly so for some countries, e.g. Austria, Finland and Hungary. Second, healthy ageing has a modest effect (on public finances) except in the case of Sweden, where it is substantial. Third, the long-run effect of immigration is well captured by the simple DDR measure if immigrants are similar to the native population. Finally, increasing the length of working lives is central to addressing the public finance challenge of ageing. Extending the length of working lives by three to four years over the next 25 years – equivalent to the increase in life expectancy – severely limits the impact of ageing on public transfers.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Entre cahiers et biberons : les enjeux de la conciliation études/famille des mères adolescentes au Gabon

Ce travail de recherche s’est intéressé aux mères adolescentes du Gabon, pays d’Afrique Centrale. S’inscrivant en faux contre l’idée préconçue selon laquelle les grossesses à l’adolescence conduisent inéluctablement au décrochage scolaire, les résultats de recherche présentés dans ce document rendent plutôt compte d’expériences inverses, à savoir celles des mères adolescentes qui parviennent à persévérer dans leurs études. Le présent mémoire vise à comprendre et à analyser le vécu des jeunes filles mères scolarisées. Il questionne le parcours de vie de ces « mamans ados » et conséquemment les mécanismes qui leur permettent de concilier études et maternité. La démarche repose sur une méthode qualitative. Des entretiens semi-directifs auprès de 18 jeunes filles mères scolarisées ont été conduits à Libreville, capitale gabonaise. Les jeunes filles rencontrées étaient âgées de 15 à 19 ans. Les entrevues ont été enregistrées et retranscrites. Quels sont les facteurs favorisant la conciliation études/maternité chez les jeunes filles ? Nos données ont permis de mettre en évidence quatre facteurs cruciaux à cet égard. Ces facteurs sont premièrement, une capacité d’organisation et un degré d’auto-responsabilisation très poussés chez ces jeunes filles ; deuxièmement, l’activation d’un soutien important de la part du réseau familial ; troisièmement, une implication et des aides importantes apportées par le père de l’enfant ; enfin, une valorisation affirmée de l’éducation de la part des parents de la jeune mère. Il ressort aussi de nos analyses que moyennant au moins l’un, sinon plusieurs, de ces facteurs, les jeunes mères adolescentes à Libreville parviennent à mener de front études et maternité. Cela veut dire que le décrochage scolaire chez les mères adolescentes n’est pas une fatalité si des formes d’accompagnement et de soutien existent.

Plasticité du cortex visuel: «homéodynamie» des connexions neuronales et modèle d’effets d’antidépresseurs

Les informations sensorielles sont traitées dans le cortex par des réseaux de neurones co-activés qui forment des assemblées neuronales fonctionnelles. Le traitement visuel dans le cortex est régit par différents aspects des caractéristiques neuronales tels que l’aspect anatomique, électrophysiologique et moléculaire. Au sein du cortex visuel primaire, les neurones sont sélectifs à divers attributs des stimuli tels que l’orientation, la direction, le mouvement et la fréquence spatiale. Chacun de ces attributs conduit à une activité de décharge maximale pour une population neuronale spécifique. Les neurones du cortex visuel ont cependant la capacité de changer leur sélectivité en réponse à une exposition prolongée d’un stimulus approprié appelée apprentissage visuel ou adaptation visuelle à un stimulus non préférentiel. De ce fait, l’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’investiguer les mécanismes neuronaux qui régissent le traitement visuel durant une plasticité induite par adaptation chez des animaux adultes. Ces mécanismes sont traités sous différents aspects : la connectivité neuronale, la sélectivité neuronale, les propriétés électrophysiologiques des neurones et les effets des drogues (sérotonine et fluoxétine). Le modèle testé se base sur les colonnes d’orientation du cortex visuel primaire. La présente thèse est subdivisée en quatre principaux chapitres. Le premier chapitre (A) traite de la réorganisation du cortex visuel primaire suite à une plasticité induite par adaptation visuelle. Le second chapitre (B) examine la connectivité neuronale fonctionnelle en se basant sur des corrélations croisées entre paires neuronales ainsi que sur des corrélations d’activités de populations neuronales. Le troisième chapitre (C) met en liaison les aspects cités précédemment (les effets de l’adaptation visuelle et la connectivité fonctionnelle) aux propriétés électrophysiologiques des neurones (deux classes de neurones sont traitées : les neurones à décharge régulière et les neurones à décharge rapide ou burst). Enfin, le dernier chapitre (D) a pour objectif l’étude de l’effet du couplage de l’adaptation visuelle à l’administration de certaines drogues, notamment la sérotonine et la fluoxétine (inhibiteur sélectif de recapture de la sérotonine). Méthodes En utilisant des enregistrements extracellulaires d’activités neuronales dans le cortex visuel primaire (V1) combinés à un processus d’imagerie cérébrale optique intrinsèque, nous enregistrons l’activité de décharge de populations neuronales et nous examinons l’activité de neurones individuels extraite des signaux multi-unitaires. L’analyse de l’activité cérébrale se base sur différents algorithmes : la distinction des propriétés électrophysiologiques des neurones se fait par calcul de l’intervalle de temps entre la vallée et le pic maximal du potentiel d’action (largeur du potentiel d’action), la sélectivité des neurones est basée sur leur taux de décharge à différents stimuli, et la connectivité fonctionnelle utilise des calculs de corrélations croisées. L’utilisation des drogues se fait par administration locale sur la surface du cortex (après une craniotomie et une durotomie). Résultats et conclusions Dans le premier chapitre, nous démontrons la capacité des neurones à modifier leur sélectivité après une période d’adaptation visuelle à un stimulus particulier, ces changements aboutissent à une réorganisation des cartes corticales suivant un patron spécifique. Nous attribuons ce résultat à la flexibilité de groupes fonctionnels de neurones qui étaient longtemps considérés comme des unités anatomiques rigides. En effet, nous observons une restructuration extensive des domaines d’orientation dans le but de remodeler les colonnes d’orientation où chaque stimulus est représenté de façon égale. Ceci est d’autant plus confirmé dans le second chapitre où dans ce cas, les cartes de connectivité fonctionnelle sont investiguées. En accord avec les résultats énumérés précédemment, les cartes de connectivité montrent également une restructuration massive mais de façon intéressante, les neurones utilisent une stratégie de sommation afin de stabiliser leurs poids de connectivité totaux. Ces dynamiques de connectivité sont examinées dans le troisième chapitre en relation avec les propriétés électrophysiologiques des neurones. En effet, deux modes de décharge neuronale permettent la distinction entre deux classes neuronales. Leurs dynamiques de corrélations distinctes suggèrent que ces deux classes jouent des rôles clés différents dans l’encodage et l’intégration des stimuli visuels au sein d’une population neuronale. Enfin, dans le dernier chapitre, l’adaptation visuelle est combinée avec l’administration de certaines substances, notamment la sérotonine (neurotransmetteur) et la fluoxétine (inhibiteur sélectif de recapture de la sérotonine). Ces deux substances produisent un effet similaire en facilitant l’acquisition des stimuli imposés par adaptation. Lorsqu’un stimulus non optimal est présenté en présence de l’une des deux substances, nous observons une augmentation du taux de décharge des neurones en présentant ce stimulus. Nous présentons un modèle neuronal basé sur cette recherche afin d’expliquer les fluctuations du taux de décharge neuronale en présence ou en absence des drogues. Cette thèse présente de nouvelles perspectives quant à la compréhension de l’adaptation des neurones du cortex visuel primaire adulte dans le but de changer leur sélectivité dans un environnement d’apprentissage. Nous montrons qu’il y a un parfait équilibre entre leurs habiletés plastiques et leur dynamique d’homéostasie.

(Table T1) Clay-mineral composition of ODP Site 184-1146 sediments

The preliminary results of a comprehensive study of clay minerals (<2 µm) are presented for the upper 2 m.y. of sediments from Ocean Drilling Program Leg 184 Site 1146 from the northern margin of the South China Sea, close to the Pearl River mouth. More than 500 samples were analyzed, and four main mineral species are present: smectite, illite, chlorite, and kaolinite. On a general basis, illite + chlorite and smectite display anti-correlated behavior in relation to changes in the proportion of primary to secondary minerals in the sediment. Low-frequency and high-frequency changes are observed in the smectite/(illite + chlorite) ratio.

Sedimentology of the southern Bellingshausen Sea

A major trough ('Belgica Trough') eroded by a palaeo-ice stream crosses the continental shelf of the southern Bellingshausen Sea (West Antarctica) and is associated with a trough mouth fan ('Belgica TMF') on the adjacent continental slope. Previous marine geophysical and geological studies investigated the bathymetry and geomorphology of Belgica Trough and Belgica TMF, erosional and depositional processes associated with bedform formation, and the temporal and spatial changes in clay mineral provenance of subglacial and glaciomarine sediments. Here, we present multi-proxy data from sediment cores recovered from the shelf and uppermost slope in the southern Bellingshausen Sea and reconstruct the ice-sheet history since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in this poorly studied area of West Antarctica. We combined new data (physical properties, sedimentary structures, geochemical and grain-size data) with published data (shear strength, clay mineral assemblages) to refine a previous facies classification for the sediments. The multi-proxy approach allowed us to distinguish four main facies types and to assign them to the following depositional settings: 1) subglacial, 2) proximal grounding-line, 3) distal sub-ice shelf/subsea ice, and 4) seasonal open-marine. In the seasonal open-marine facies we found evidence for episodic current-induced winnowing of near-seabed sediments on the middle to outer shelf and at the uppermost slope during the late Holocene. In addition, we obtained data on excess 210Pb activity at three core sites and 44 AMS 14C dates from the acid-insoluble fraction of organic matter (AIO) and calcareous (micro-)fossils, respectively, at 12 sites. These chronological data enabled us to reconstruct, for the first time, the timing of the last advance and retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) in the southern Bellingshausen Sea. We used the down-core variability in sediment provenance inferred from clay mineral changes to identify the most reliable AIO 14C ages for ice-sheet retreat. The palaeo-ice stream advanced through Belgica Trough after ~36.0 corrected 14C ka before present (B.P.). It retreated from the outer shelf at ~25.5 ka B.P., the middle shelf at ~19.8 ka B.P., the inner shelf in Eltanin Bay at ~12.3 ka B.P., and the inner shelf in Ronne Entrance at ~6.3 ka B.P.. The retreat of the WAIS and APIS occurred slowly and stepwise, and may still be in progress. This dynamical ice-sheet behaviour has to be taken into account for the interpretation of recent and the prediction of future mass-balance changes in the study area. The glacial history of the southern Bellingshausen Sea is unique when compared to other regions in West Antarctica, but some open questions regarding its chronology need to be addressed by future work.

Layer description, carbon and nitrogen content and stable isotope record of bulk sedimentary organic matter from Laguna Potrok Aike

An investigation of stable isotope (d13C TOC and d15N TN) and elemental parameters (TOC, TN contents and TOC/TN ratios) of bulk organic matter (<200 µm) from sediment cores recovered from the Patagonian lake Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina) in the framework of the ICDP deep drilling project PASADO provided insights into past changes in lake primary productivity and environmental conditions in South Patagonia throughout the last Glacial-Interglacial transition. Stratigraphically constrained cluster analyses of all proxy parameters suggest four main phases. From ca 26,100 to 17,300 cal. years BP, lacustrine phytoplankton was presumably the predominant organic matter source in an aquatic environment with low primary productivity rates. At around 17,300 cal. years BP, abrupt and distinct shifts of isotopic and elemental values indicate that the lacustrine system underwent a rapid reorganization. Lake primary productivity (phytoplankton and aquatic macrophytes) shows higher levels albeit with large variations during most of the deglaciation until 13,000 cal. years BP. The main causes for this development can be seen in improved growing conditions for primary producers because of deglacial warming in combination with expedient availability of nutrients and likely calm wind conditions. After 13,000 cal. years BP, decreased d13C TOC values, TOC, TN contents and TOC/TN ratios indicate that the lake approached a new state with reduced primary productivity probably induced by unfavourable growing conditions for primary producers like strengthened winds and reduced nutrient availability. The steady increase in d15N TN values presumably suggests limitation of nitrate supply for growth of primary producers resulting from a nutrient shortage after the preceding phase with high productivity. Nitrate limitation and consequent decreased lacustrine primary productivity continued into the early Holocene (10,970-8400 cal. years BP) as reflected by isotopic and elemental values.

Discoloration and mineralization of Reactive Red HE-3B by heterogeneous photo-Fenton reaction

Discoloration and mineralization of Reactive Red HE-3B were studied by using a laponite clay-based Fe nanocomposite (Fe-Lap-RD) as a heterogeneous catalyst in the presence of H2O2 and UV light. Our experimental results clearly indicate that Fe-Lap-RD mainly consists of Fe2O3 (meghemite) and Fe2Si4O10(OH)2 (iron silicate hydroxide) which have tetragonal and monoclinic structures, respectively, and has a high specific surface area (472m(2) / g) as well as a high total pore volume (0.547 cm(3)/g). It was observed that discoloration of HE-3B undergoes a much faster kinetics than mineralization of HE-3B. It was also found that initial HE-3B concentration, H2O2 concentration, UV light wavelength and power, and Fe-Lap-RD catalyst loading are the four main factors that can significantly influence the mineralization of HE-3B. At optimal conditions, complete discoloration of 100 mg/L HE-3B can be achieved in 30 min and the total organic carbon removal ratio can attain 76% in 120 min, illustrating that Fe-Lap-RD has a high photo-catalytic activity in the photo-assisted discoloration and mineralization of HE-3B in the presence of UV light (254nm) and H2O2. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Single-subject research designs and data analyses for assessing elite athletes' conditioning

Research in conditioning (all the processes of preparation for competition) has used group research designs, where multiple athletes are observed at one or more points in time. However, empirical reports of large inter-individual differences in response to conditioning regimens suggest that applied conditioning research would greatly benefit from single-subject research designs. Single-subject research designs allow us to find out the extent to which a specific conditioning regimen works for a specific athlete, as opposed to the average athlete, who is the focal point of group research designs. The aim of the following review is to outline the strategies and procedures of single-subject research as they pertain to.. the assessment of conditioning for individual athletes. The four main experimental designs in single-subject research are: the AB design, reversal (withdrawal) designs and their extensions, multiple baseline designs and alternating treatment designs. Visual and statistical analyses commonly used to analyse single-subject data, and advantages and limitations are discussed. Modelling of multivariate single-subject data using techniques such as dynamic factor analysis and structural equation modelling may identify individualised models of conditioning leading to better prediction of performance. Despite problems associated with data analyses in single-subject research (e.g. serial dependency), sports scientists should use single-subject research designs in applied conditioning research to understand how well an intervention (e.g. a training method) works and to predict performance for a particular athlete.

Older Volunteers Participating in a University Research Registry: Helping Others My Age

This paper discusses a study that examined why older people volunteer for a research registry based at the University of Queensland, Australia. A mailed questionnaire was utilized to explore a list of reported motives developed from an in-depth qualitative phase. An exploratory factor analysis of the findings was conducted, which showed that there were four main motivations for respondents to volunteer in this context. These motives were to make a contribution to society and to research; to be involved in research; to meet others; and to be informed about the university environment. These findings show that older research volunteers have a strong interest in university research outcomes and demonstrate a commitment to aging productively. There are lessons here for researchers and policy-makers, who need to develop additional ways to involve older people in the research that affects them.

Phylogeography of the scarab beetle Antitrogus parvulus Britton (Coleoptera : Scarabaeidae) in south-eastern Queensland, Australia

This study surveys the population genetic structure of Childers canegrub, Antitrogus parvulus, to elucidate its population dynamics and gene flow. Antitrogus parvulus is a pest of sugarcane in the Bundaberg region and this knowledge can be used to optimise integrated pest management practices. Here, base-pair differences in the cytochrome oxidase II gene (COII) were used to characterise haplotypic diversity, infer levels of gene flow, and phylogenetic relationships of alleles and their phylogeographical structure. There were 28 unique haplotypes among the 70 sequenced individuals from the seven locations. All three variance components (among regions, among populations, within populations) are highly significant, with highest genetic diversity among regions and lowest among populations within regions. A positive correlation between migration rates and geographical distance and significant phylogeographical structure between four main geographical regions. The main implication of these findings for pest management is that if a grower can eliminate an existing infestation within a field, then reinvasion will be slow and further outbreaks within that field are unlikely to occur. The low dispersal ability of females also means that any resistance to insecticides that develops is likely to remain localised, but will rapidly become dominant within the affected population.

A flexible and practical framework for reporting on ecologically sustainable development for wild capture fisheries

The principles of sustainable development (or ecologically sustainable development as it is known in Australia) are now accepted as the foundation for natural resource management worldwide and there are increasing community expectations that they will be implemented explicitly. Previous attempts to assess sustainable development for fisheries have mostly failed because the methods have been too restrictive, often attempting to develop a single set of indicators. In 2000, all the fishery agencies and major stakeholder groups in Australia supported the development of a National ESD Framework. This initiative resulted in a practical system being generated through the results of a series of case studies and stakeholder workshops. The Australian National ESD Framework divides ESD into eight major components within the three main categories of ecological well-being, human well-being and ability to contribute: Four main steps are used to complete an ESD report for a fishery: (1) identify relevant issues, (2) prioritise these using risk assessment, (3) complete appropriately detailed reports on each issue and (4) compile the material into a report. The tools to assist this process are now available and have been used to generate reports for many Australian fisheries. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic occupational therapy cognitive assessment for children: Perceived utility in Australian occupational therapy practice

Background and Aim: The Dynamic Occupational Therapy Cognitive Assessment for Children (DOTCA-Ch), recently developed in Israel, assesses the cognitive areas: orientation, spatial perception, praxis, visuomotor construction and thinking operations of 6- to 12-year-old children. The dynamic aspect, which incorporates mediation and prompting, has been presented as a valuable clinical feature of this new assessment. This study investigated the cultural suitability, dynamic nature and comprehensiveness of the DOTCA-Ch as a single cognitive assessment for occupational therapy practice in Australia. Methods: Twenty-three paediatric occupational therapists participated in three tutorial and video demonstrations, which were then followed by a group interview. Results and Conclusion: Thematic analysis of transcripts identified four main themes: appropriateness of assessment tasks, language, mediation and clinical utility. Within each theme, the participants raised both positive and negative features. This paper highlights occupational therapists' mixed views on the clinical utility of this assessment in Australia. Limitations of this study and areas for further research are suggested

Analysis of lipoproteins using 2D diffusion-edited NMR spectroscopy and multi-way chemometrics

This study represents the first application of multi-way calibration by N-PLS and multi-way curve resolution by PARAFAC to 2D diffusion-edited H-1 NMR spectra. The aim of the analysis was to evaluate the potential for quantification of lipoprotein main- and subtractions in human plasma samples. Multi-way N-PLS calibrations relating the methyl and methylene peaks of lipoprotein lipids to concentrations of the four main lipoprotein fractions as well as 11 subfractions were developed with high correlations (R = 0.75-0.98). Furthermore, a PARAFAC model with four chemically meaningful components was calculated from the 2D diffusion-edited spectra of the methylene peak of lipids. Although the four extracted PARAFAC components represent molecules of sizes that correspond to the four main fractions of lipoproteins, the corresponding concentrations of the four PARAFAC components proved not to be correlated to the reference concentrations of these four fractions in the plasma samples as determined by ultracentrifugation. These results indicate that NMR provides complementary information on the classification of lipoprotein fractions compared to ultracentrifugation. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The diagnostic interview for psychoses (DIP): development, reliability and applications

Background. We describe the development, reliability and applications of the Diagnostic Interview for Psychoses (DIP), a comprehensive interview schedule for psychotic disorders. Method. The DIP is intended for use by interviewers with a clinical background and was designed to occupy the middle ground between fully structured, lay-administered schedules, and semi-structured., psychiatrist-administered interviews. It encompasses four main domains: (a) demographic data; (b) social functioning and disability; (c) a diagnostic module comprising symptoms, signs and past history ratings; and (d) patterns of service utilization Lind patient-perceived need for services. It generates diagnoses according to several sets of criteria using the OPCRIT computerized diagnostic algorithm and can be administered either on-screen or in a hard-copy format. Results. The DIP proved easy to use and was well accepted in the field. For the diagnostic module, inter-rater reliability was assessed on 20 cases rated by 24 clinicians: good reliability was demonstrated for both ICD-10 and DSM-III-R diagnoses. Seven cases were interviewed 2-11 weeks apart to determine test-retest reliability, with pairwise agreement of 0.8-1.0 for most items. Diagnostic validity was assessed in 10 cases, interviewed with the DIP and using the SCAN as 'gold standard': in nine cases clinical diagnoses were in agreement. Conclusions. The DIP is suitable for use in large-scale epidemiological studies of psychotic disorders. as well as in smaller Studies where time is at a premium. While the diagnostic module stands on its own, the full DIP schedule, covering demography, social functioning and service utilization makes it a versatile multi-purpose tool.