Repetitive Deliberate Fires: Critical Review of the Situation and Proposal of a Follow-Up Process and Systematic Analysis

Deliberate fires appear to be borderless and timeless events creating a serious security problem. There have been many attempts to develop approaches to tackle this problem, but unfortunately acting effectively against deliberate fires has proven a complex challenge. This article reviews the current situation relating to deliberate fires: what do we know, how serious is the situation, how is it being dealt with, and what challenges are faced when developing a systematic and global methodology to tackle the issues? The repetitive nature of some types of deliberate fires will also be discussed. Finally, drawing on the reality of repetition within deliberate fires and encouraged by successes obtained in previous repetitive crimes (such as property crimes or drug trafficking), we will argue that the use of the intelligence process cycle as a framework to allow a follow-up and systematic analysis of fire events is a relevant approach. This is the first article of a series of three articles. This first part is introducing the context and discussing the background issues in order to provide a better underpinning knowledge to managers and policy makers planning on tackling this issue. The second part will present a methodology developed to detect and identify repetitive fire events from a set of data, and the third part will discuss the analyses of these data to produce intelligence.

Identifying Pertinent Variables for Nonresponse Follow-Up Surveys : Lessons Learned from 4 Cases in Switzerland

All social surveys suffer from different types of errors, of which one of the most studied is non-response bias. Non-response bias is a systematic error that occurs because individuals differ in their accessibility and propensity to participate in a survey according to their own characteristics as well as those from the survey itself. The extent of the problem heavily depends on the correlation between response mechanisms and key survey variables. However, non-response bias is difficult to measure or to correct for due to the lack of relevant data about the whole target population or sample. In this paper, non-response follow-up surveys are considered as a possible source of information about non-respondents. Non-response follow-ups, however, suffer from two methodological issues: they themselves operate through a response mechanism that can cause potential non-response bias, and they pose a problem of comparability of measure, mostly because the survey design differs between main survey and non-response follow-up. In order to detect possible bias, the survey variables included in non-response surveys have to be related to the mechanism of participation, but not be sensitive to measurement effects due to the different designs. Based on accumulated experience of four similar non-response follow-ups, we studied the survey variables that fulfill these conditions. We differentiated socio-demographic variables that are measurement-invariant but have a lower correlation with non-response and variables that measure attitudes, such as trust, social participation, or integration in the public sphere, which are more sensitive to measurement effects but potentially more appropriate to account for the non-response mechanism. Our results show that education level, work status, and living alone, as well as political interest, satisfaction with democracy, and trust in institutions are pertinent variables to include in non-response follow-ups of general social surveys. - See more at: https://ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/view/6138#sthash.u87EeaNG.dpuf

Low-fat dairy products and blood pressure: follow-up of 2290 older persons at high cardiovascular risk participating in the PREDIMED study

High blood pressure (BP) has been ranked as the most important risk factor worldwide regarding attributable deaths. Dietary habits are major determinants of BP. Among them, frequent intake of low-fat dairy products may protect against hypertension. Our aim was to assess the relationship between low-fat dairy product intake and BP levels and their changes after 12 month follow-up in a cohort of asymptomatic older persons at high cardiovascular risk recruited into a large-scale trial assessing the effects of Mediterranean diets on cardiovascular outcomes. Data from 2290 participants, including 1845 with hypertension, were available for analyses. Dairy products were not a specific part of the intervention; thus, data were analysed as an observational cohort. Dietary information was collected with validated semi-quantitative FFQ and trained personnel measured BP. To assess BP changes, we undertook cross-sectional analyses at baseline and at the end of follow-up and longitudinal analyses. A statistically significant inverse association between low-fat dairy product intake and systolic BP was observed for the 12-month longitudinal analysis. In the longitudinal analysis, the adjusted systolic and diastolic BP were significantly lower in the highest quintile of low-fat dairy product intake ( 2 4·2 (95% CI 2 6·9, 2 1·4) and 2 1·8 (95% CI 2 3·2, 2 0·4) mmHg respectively), whereas the point estimates for the difference in diastolic BP indicated a modest non-significant inverse association. Intake of low-fat dairy products was inversely associated with BP in an older population at high cardiovascular risk, suggesting a possible protective effect against hypertension.

A single-blind, randomised controlled trial on the effects of lithium and quetiapine monotherapy on the trajectory of cognitive functioning in first episode mania: A 12-month follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive deficits have been reported during the early stages of bipolar disorder; however, the role of medication on such deficits remains unclear. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of lithium and quetiapine monotherapy on cognitive performance in people following first episode mania. METHODS: The design was a single-blind, randomised controlled trial on a cohort of 61 participants following first episode mania. Participants received either lithium or quetiapine monotherapy as maintenance treatment over a 12-month follow-up period. The groups were compared on performance outcomes using an extensive cognitive assessment battery conducted at baseline, month 3 and month 12 follow-up time-points. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between group and time in phonemic fluency at the 3-month and 12-month endpoints, reflecting greater improvements in performance in lithium-treated participants relative to quetiapine-treated participants. After controlling for multiple comparisons, there were no other significant interactions between group and time for other measures of cognition. CONCLUSION: Although the effects of lithium and quetiapine treatment were similar for most cognitive domains, the findings imply that early initiation of lithium treatment may benefit the trajectory of cognition, specifically verbal fluency in young people with bipolar disorder. Given that cognition is a major symptomatic domain of bipolar disorder and has substantive effects on general functioning, the ability to influence the trajectory of cognitive change is of considerable clinical importance.

The updated Swiss guidelines 2016 for the treatment and follow-up of cutaneous melanoma.

Cutaneous melanoma is the most deadly cutaneous neoplasm. In order to guide treatment decisions and follow-up of melanoma patients, guidelines for the management of melanoma in Switzerland were inaugurated in 2001 and revised in 2006 and 2016. Recent data on surgical and medical treatments from randomised trials necessitated modification of the treatment and follow-up recommendations.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) in mothers before and after delivery – a three year follow-up study.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infections in mothers are important to consider since pregnancy may affect the outcome of the infection and the mother may transmit HPV to the child. This thesis is part of the 3-year Finnish Family HPV Study on HPV infection dynamics within 329 families. The presence of maternal HPV antibodies and HPV DNA in placenta, umbilical cord blood and breast milk was examined. In addition, genital and oral HR-HPV carriage was studied among mothers with one or two pregnancies. At enrollment, seropositivity to HPV 6, 11, 16, 18 and 45 was recorded in 53 %, 21 %, 35 %, 21 % and 9 % of the mothers, respectively. Age at sexual debut, number of sexual partners, a history of genital warts and antibodies to LR/HR-HPV predicted HR/LR-HPV-seropositivity. During follow-up 27 %, 14 %, 17 %, 17 % and 7 % of the mothers seroconverted to the tested HPV-types, respectively. Decay of HPV-antibodies was rare. The mother’s new pregnancy was of minor impact in the outcome of oral and cervical HR-HPV infections. HPV-DNA was present in 4.2 % and 3.5 % of the placentas and umbilical cord blood samples, and in 4.5 % and 19.7 % of the breast milk samples collected at day 3 and month 2 postpartum, respectively. HPV-positivity in placenta/cord blood was related to a history of abnormal pap-smears or genital warts, and raised the risk of the neonate being HPV-positive at birth. The mode of delivery did not predict the HPVstatus of neonate, placenta, or cord blood. HPV DNA in breast milk was associated with oral HPV status of the father, but not with HPV status of the neonate. The results indicate that exposure to HPV is common and that part of the exposure might take place already early in life. Contrary to the common claim, pregnancy is not a risk factor for HPV.

Multisystem Developmental Disorder in Children from 2 to 6 Years Old : A Three Years Follow-Up Study

This research studied children who had been diagnosed with Multisystem Developmental Disorder (MSDD) (NC, 2002) under the Diagnostic Classifications of Mental Health and Developmental Disorders of Infancy and Early Childhood (DC: 0 - 3). They all showed, to a varying degree, difficulties in relating to others, play, affective interaction and severe delay in developing communication skills. Some studies have observed continuity in the diagnosis of autism during the first years of life. The objective of this study is to analyse the development of infants with MSDD whose diagnosis of autism was not confirmed. We also attempted to verify any possible psychomotor developmental differences based on, or related to, the severity and typology (B and C) of the MSDD. To enable us to do this we carried out a 3-year follow-up during which we assessed the infants (n = 15) and their parents. They are 2 - 4 years old. Results showed that type B children did present a greater impairment of psychomotor development in assessment tests. However, we did not observe any correlation between the degree of severity of the initial symptoms and later diagnoses. Conclusion: although our sample is small, we can conclude that there isn’t a clear evolution in the diagnosis, but we have found significant differences in the symptomatology between the type B and C

Language recovery and evidence of residual deficits after nonthalamic subcortical stroke: A 1 year follow-up study

A variety of language disturbances including aphasia have been described after subcortical stroke but less is known about the factors that influence the long-term recovery of stroke-induced language dysfunction. We prospectively examined the role of the affected hemisphere and the lesion site in the occurrence and recovery of language deficits in nonthalamic subcortical stroke. Forty patients with unilateral basal gangliastroke underwent language assessment within 1 week, 3 months and 1 year after stroke. Disturbances in at least one language domain were observed in 35 patients during the first week post stroke including aphasia diagnosed in 11 patients. Importantly, the appearance of deficits after stroke onset and the improvement of language function were not determined by the site of subcortical lesion, but instead were critically influenced by the affected hemisphere. In fact, the language impairments following left and right basal ganglia stroke mirrored the language dysfunction observed after cortical lesions in the same hemisphere. A significant overall language improvement was observed at 3 months after stroke, although residual deficits in languageexecutive function were the most commonly observed impairment at 1 year follow-up. Although a substantial improvement of language function can be expected after nonthalamic subcortical stroke, our findings suggest that language recovery may not be fully achieved at 1 year post

Cognitive Functions After Traumatic Brain Injury. A 30-year Follow-up Study

Many cognitive deficits after TBI (traumatic brain injury) are well known, such as memory and concentration problems, as well as reduced information-processing speed. What happens to patients and cognitive functioning after immediate recovery is poorly known. Cognitive functioning is flexible and may be influenced by genetic, psychological and environmental factors decades after TBI. The general aim of this thesis was to describe the long-term cognitive course after TBI, to find variables that may contribute to it, and how the cognitive functions after TBI are associated with specific medical factors and reduced survival. The original study group consisted of 192 patients with TBI who were originally assessed with the Mild Deterioration Battery (MDB) on average two years after the injury, during the years 1966 – 1972. During a 30-year follow-up, we studied the risks for reduced survival, and the mortality of the patients was compared with the general population using the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR). Sixty-one patients were re-assessed during 1998-2000. These patients were evaluated with the MDB, computerized testing, and with various other neuropsychological methods for attention and executive functions. Apolipoprotein-E (ApoE) genotyping and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based on volumetric analysis of the hippocampus and lateral ventricles were performed. Depressive symptoms were evaluated with the short form of the Beck depression inventory. The cognitive performance at follow-up was compared with a control group that was similar to the study group in regard to age and education. The cognitive outcome of the patients with TBI varied after three decades. The majority of the patients showed a decline in their cognitive level, the rest either improved or stayed at the same level. Male gender and higher age at injury were significant risk factors for the decline. Whereas most cognitive domains declined during the follow-up, semantic memory behaved in the opposite way, showing recovery after TBI. In the follow-up assessment, the memory decline and impairments in the set-shifting domain of executive functions were associated with MRI-volumetric measures, whereas reduction in information-processing speed was not associated with the MRI measures. The presence of local contusions was only weakly associated with cognitive functions. Only few cognitive methods for attention were capable of discriminating TBI patients with and without depressive symptoms. On the other hand, most complex attentional tests were sensitive enough to discriminate TBI patients (non-depressive) from controls. This means that complex attention functions, mediated by the frontal lobes, are relatively independent of depressive symptoms post-TBI. The presence of ApoE4 was associated with different kinds of memory processes including verbal and visual episodic memory, semantic memory and verbal working memory, depending on the length of time since TBI. Many other cognitive processes were not affected by the presence of ApoE4. Age at injury and poor vocational outcome were independent risk factors for reduced survival in the multivariate analysis. Late mortality was higher among younger subjects (age < 40 years at death) compared with the general population which should be borne in mind when assessing the need for rehabilitation services and long-term follow-up after TBI.