Monte Carlo Methods in Parameter Estimation of Nonlinear Models

Yksi keskeisimmistä tehtävistä matemaattisten mallien tilastollisessa analyysissä on mallien tuntemattomien parametrien estimointi. Tässä diplomityössä ollaan kiinnostuneita tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumista ja niiden muodostamiseen sopivista numeerisista menetelmistä, etenkin tapauksissa, joissa malli on epälineaarinen parametrien suhteen. Erilaisten numeeristen menetelmien osalta pääpaino on Markovin ketju Monte Carlo -menetelmissä (MCMC). Nämä laskentaintensiiviset menetelmät ovat viime aikoina kasvattaneet suosiotaan lähinnä kasvaneen laskentatehon vuoksi. Sekä Markovin ketjujen että Monte Carlo -simuloinnin teoriaa on esitelty työssä siinä määrin, että menetelmien toimivuus saadaan perusteltua. Viime aikoina kehitetyistä menetelmistä tarkastellaan etenkin adaptiivisia MCMC menetelmiä. Työn lähestymistapa on käytännönläheinen ja erilaisia MCMC -menetelmien toteutukseen liittyviä asioita korostetaan. Työn empiirisessä osuudessa tarkastellaan viiden esimerkkimallin tuntemattomien parametrien jakaumaa käyttäen hyväksi teoriaosassa esitettyjä menetelmiä. Mallit kuvaavat kemiallisia reaktioita ja kuvataan tavallisina differentiaaliyhtälöryhminä. Mallit on kerätty kemisteiltä Lappeenrannan teknillisestä yliopistosta ja Åbo Akademista, Turusta.

Pédiatrie 5. Approche ciblée de l'ostéoporose chez l'enfant et l'adolescent [Targeted approach to osteoporosis for children and teenagers].

The osteoporosis of the child and the teenager is a pathological reality; its multifactorial pathogenesis often requires a collaborative approach and multidisciplinary. The osteoporosis characterized by a reduction in the bone mineral density is not a uniform pathology; it must be dealt with on all the levels by analyzing the factors of risks, by giving itself the diagnostic means and while insisting on the importance of a preventive approach as well as therapeutic.

Multivariable regression analysis and hot-spot stress approach into fatigue life estimations of welded joints

Kolmen eri hitsausliitoksen väsymisikä arvio on analysoitu monimuuttuja regressio analyysin avulla. Regression perustana on laaja S-N tietokanta joka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Tarkastellut liitokset ovat tasalevy liitos, krusiformi liitos ja pitkittäisripa levyssä. Muuttujina ovat jännitysvaihtelu, kuormitetun levyn paksuus ja kuormitus tapa. Paksuus effekti on käsitelty uudelleen kaikkia kolmea liitosta ajatellen. Uudelleen käsittelyn avulla on varmistettu paksuus effektin olemassa olo ennen monimuuttuja regressioon siirtymistä. Lineaariset väsymisikä yhtalöt on ajettu kolmelle hitsausliitokselle ottaen huomioon kuormitetun levyn paksuus sekä kuormitus tapa. Väsymisikä yhtalöitä on verrattu ja keskusteltu testitulosten valossa, jotka on kerätty kirjallisuudesta. Neljä tutkimustaon tehty kerättyjen väsymistestien joukosta ja erilaisia väsymisikä arvio metodeja on käytetty väsymisiän arviointiin. Tuloksia on tarkasteltu ja niistä keskusteltu oikeiden testien valossa. Tutkimuksissa on katsottu 2mm ja 6mm symmetristäpitkittäisripaa levyssä, 12.7mm epäsymmetristä pitkittäisripaa, 38mm symmetristä pitkittäisripaa vääntökuormituksessa ja 25mm/38mm kuorman kantavaa krusiformi liitosta vääntökuormituksessa. Mallinnus on tehty niin lähelle testi liitosta kuin mahdollista. Väsymisikä arviointi metodit sisältävät hot-spot metodin jossa hot-spot jännitys on laskettu kahta lineaarista ja epälineaarista ekstrapolointiakäyttäen sekä paksuuden läpi integrointia käyttäen. Lovijännitys ja murtumismekaniikka metodeja on käytetty krusiformi liitosta laskiessa.

Forensic processing of false identity and travel documents to produce intelligence: a novel approach to assist in fighting organized crime

The production and use of false identity and travel documents in organized crime represent a serious and evolving threat. However, a case-by-case perspective, thus suffering from linkage blindness and a limited analysis capacity, essentially drives the present-day fight against this criminal problem. To assist in overcoming these limitations, a process model was developed using a forensic perspective. It guides the systematic analysis and management of seized false documents to generate forensic intelligence that supports strategic and tactical decision-making in an intelligence-led policing approach. The model is articulated on a three-level architecture that aims to assist in detecting and following-up on general trends, production methods and links between cases or series. Using analyses of a large dataset of counterfeit and forged identity and travel documents, it is possible to illustrate the model, its three levels and their contribution. Examples will point out how the proposed approach assists in detecting emerging trends, in evaluating the black market's degree of structure, in uncovering criminal networks, in monitoring the quality of false documents, and in identifying their weaknesses to orient the conception of more secured travel and identity documents. The process model proposed is thought to have a general application in forensic science and can readily be transposed to other fields of study.

Das GRADE-System: ein internationaler Ansatz zur Vereinheitlichung der Graduierung von Evidenz und Empfehlungen in Leitlinien. [The GRADE System: an international approach to standardize the graduation of evidence and recommendations in guidelines]

Clinical practice guidelines have become an important source of information to support clinicians in the management of individual patients. However, current guideline methods have limitations that include the lack of separating the quality of evidence from the strength of recommendations. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) working group, an international collaboration of guideline developers, methodologists, and clinicians have developed a system that addresses these shortcomings. Core elements include transparent methodology for grading the quality of evidence, the distinction between quality of the evidence and strength of a recommendation, an explicit balancing of benefits and harms of health care interventions, an explicit recognition of the values and preferences that underlie recommendations. The GRADE system has been piloted in various practice settings to ensure that it captures the complexity involved in evidence assessment and grading recommendations while maintaining simplicity and practicality. Many guideline organizations and medical societies have endorsed the system and adopted it for their guideline processes.

Methods for Region Based Paper Surface Roughness Measurement

Paperin pinnan karheus on yksi paperin laatukriteereistä. Sitä mitataan fyysisestipaperin pintaa mittaavien laitteiden ja optisten laitteiden avulla. Mittaukset vaativat laboratorioolosuhteita, mutta nopeammille, suoraan linjalla tapahtuville mittauksilla olisi tarvetta paperiteollisuudessa. Paperin pinnan karheus voidaan ilmaista yhtenä näytteelle kohdistuvana karheusarvona. Tässä työssä näyte on jaettu merkitseviin alueisiin, ja jokaiselle alueelle on laskettu erillinen karheusarvo. Karheuden mittaukseen on käytetty useita menetelmiä. Yleisesti hyväksyttyä tilastollista menetelmää on käytetty tässä työssä etäisyysmuunnoksen lisäksi. Paperin pinnan karheudenmittauksessa on ollut tarvetta jakaa analysoitava näyte karheuden perusteella alueisiin. Aluejaon avulla voidaan rajata näytteestä selvästi karheampana esiintyvät alueet. Etäisyysmuunnos tuottaa alueita, joita on analysoitu. Näistä alueista on muodostettu yhtenäisiä alueita erilaisilla segmentointimenetelmillä. PNN -menetelmään (Pairwise Nearest Neighbor) ja naapurialueiden yhdistämiseen perustuvia algoritmeja on käytetty.Alueiden jakamiseen ja yhdistämiseen perustuvaa lähestymistapaa on myös tarkasteltu. Segmentoitujen kuvien validointi on yleensä tapahtunut ihmisen tarkastelemana. Tämän työn lähestymistapa on verrata yleisesti hyväksyttyä tilastollista menetelmää segmentoinnin tuloksiin. Korkea korrelaatio näiden tulosten välillä osoittaa onnistunutta segmentointia. Eri kokeiden tuloksia on verrattu keskenään hypoteesin testauksella. Työssä on analysoitu kahta näytesarjaa, joidenmittaukset on suoritettu OptiTopolla ja profilometrillä. Etäisyysmuunnoksen aloitusparametrit, joita muutettiin kokeiden aikana, olivat aloituspisteiden määrä ja sijainti. Samat parametrimuutokset tehtiin kaikille algoritmeille, joita käytettiin alueiden yhdistämiseen. Etäisyysmuunnoksen jälkeen korrelaatio oli voimakkaampaa profilometrillä mitatuille näytteille kuin OptiTopolla mitatuille näytteille. Segmentoiduilla OptiTopo -näytteillä korrelaatio parantui voimakkaammin kuin profilometrinäytteillä. PNN -menetelmän tuottamilla tuloksilla korrelaatio oli paras.

Guideline adaptation: an approach to enhance efficiency in guideline development and improve utilisation.

BACKGROUND: Developing and updating high-quality guidelines requires substantial time and resources. To reduce duplication of effort and enhance efficiency, we developed a process for guideline adaptation and assessed initial perceptions of its feasibility and usefulness. METHODS: Based on preliminary developments and empirical studies, a series of meetings with guideline experts were organised to define a process for guideline adaptation (ADAPTE) and to develop a manual and a toolkit made available on a website (http://www.adapte.org). Potential users, guideline developers and implementers, were invited to register and to complete a questionnaire evaluating their perception about the proposed process. RESULTS: The ADAPTE process consists of three phases (set-up, adaptation, finalisation), 9 modules and 24 steps. The adaptation phase involves identifying specific clinical questions, searching for, retrieving and assessing available guidelines, and preparing the draft adapted guideline. Among 330 registered individuals (46 countries), 144 completed the questionnaire. A majority found the ADAPTE process clear (78%), comprehensive (69%) and feasible (60%), and the manual useful (79%). However, 21% found the ADAPTE process complex. 44% feared that they will not find appropriate and high-quality source guidelines. DISCUSSION: A comprehensive framework for guideline adaptation has been developed to meet the challenges of timely guideline development and implementation. The ADAPTE process generated important interest among guideline developers and implementers. The majority perceived the ADAPTE process to be feasible, useful and leading to improved methodological rigour and guideline quality. However, some de novo development might be needed if no high quality guideline exists for a given topic.

Outcome after proximal femoral fractures during primary total hip replacement by the direct anterior approach.

BACKGROUND: The literature suggests that intraoperative fractures of the greater trochanter and the metaphysis are increased with uncemented stems and the direct anterior approach. This study aims to determine the incidence and assess the functional and radiological outcome after such fractures. METHODS: 484 consecutive total hip replacements (THR) (64 ± 12 years) were analyzed. We treated trochanteric fractures conservatively without any further denuding, and secured metaphyseal fissures with cerclages. Postoperative X-rays and at the latest follow-up were compared to assess secondary fracture displacement and stem subsidence. Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) scores after 1 year were analyzed. For each patient sustaining a fracture, two patients without fractures were matched in terms of age, body mass index and gender. RESULTS: 13 (2.7 %, 5 male, 68 ± 9 years) patients with intraoperative fractures of the greater trochanter (n = 8) or the metaphysis (n = 5) were analyzed. Consolidation was observed in 7/8 patients sustaining a trochanteric fracture while secondary displacement of the fragment occurred in one case. Stem subsidence was observed in 2/5 cases (5 and 7 mm). Patients who sustained a fracture showed a trend towards poorer WOMAC scores at 1 year postoperatively, compared to patients without fractures. A significantly increased joint stiffness was also observed. CONCLUSION: The intraoperative fracture risk in this series of THR through a direct anterior approach was 2.7 %. Trochanteric fractures do heal without primary fixation. Metaphyseal fractures heal well if immediately stabilized with a cerclage.

Feasibility of Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) for Imatinib: Preliminary considerations on the dosage adjustment approach for CML patients enrolled in the Imatinib Concentration Monitoring (I-COME) study

Background: As imatinib pharmacokinetics are highly variable, plasma levels differ largely between patients under the same dosage. Retrospective studies in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients showed significant correlations between low levels and suboptimal response, and between high levels and poor tolerability. Monitoring of plasma levels is thus increasingly advised, targeting trough concentrations of 1000 μg/L and above. Objectives: Our study was launched to assess the clinical usefulness of systematic imatinib TDM in CML patients. The present preliminary evaluation questions the appropriateness of dosage adjustment following plasma level measurement to reach the recommended trough level, while allowing an interval of 4-24 h after last drug intake for blood sampling. Methods: Initial blood samples from the first 9 patients in the intervention arm were obtained 4-25 h after last dose. Trough levels in 7 patients were predicted to be significantly away from the target (6 <750 μg/L, and 1 >1500 μg/L with poor tolerance), based on a Bayesian approach using a population pharmacokinetic model. Individual dosage adjustments were taken up in 5 patients, who had a control measurement 1-4 weeks after dosage change. Predicted trough levels were confronted to anterior model-based extrapolations. Results: Before dosage adjustment, observed concentrations extrapolated at trough ranged from 359 to 1832 μg/L (median 710; mean 804, CV 53%) in the 9 patients. After dosage adjustment they were expected to target between 720 and 1090 μg/L (median 878; mean 872, CV 13%). Observed levels of the 5 recheck measurements extrapolated at trough actually ranged from 710 to 1069 μg/L (median 1015; mean 950, CV 16%) and had absolute differences of 21 to 241 μg/L to the model-based predictions (median 175; mean 157, CV 52%). Differences between observed and predicted trough levels were larger when intervals between last drug intake and sampling were very short (~4 h). Conclusion: These preliminary results suggest that TDM of imatinib using a Bayesian interpretation is able to bring trough levels closer to 1000 μg/L (with CV decreasing from 53% to 16%). While this may simplify blood collection in daily practice, as samples do not have to be drawn exactly at trough, the largest possible interval to last drug intake yet remains preferable. This encourages the evaluation of the clinical benefit of a routine TDM intervention in CML patients, which the randomized Swiss I-COME study aims to.

A frequency distribution approach to hotspot identification

We present a new global method for the identification of hotspots in conservation and ecology. The method is based on the identification of spatial structure properties through cumulative relative frequency distributions curves, and is tested with two case studies, the identification of fish density hotspots and terrestrial vertebrate species diversity hotspots. Results from the frequency distribution method are compared with those from standard techniques among local, partially local and global methods. Our approach offers the main advantage to be independent from the selection of any threshold, neighborhood, or other parameter that affect most of the currently available methods for hotspot analysis. The two case studies show how such elements of arbitrariness of the traditional methods influence both size and location of the identified hotspots, and how this new global method can be used for a more objective selection of hotspots.

Population genetics of Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) in the Jura and the Pyrenees: a non-invasive approach to avian conservation genetics

RÉSUMÉ Le Grand tétras est un galliforme de montagne apparenté au faisan et au tétras lyre. Il est distribué de manière continue à travers la toundra et les montagnes de moyenne altitude en Europe de l'ouest. Toutefois, les populations d'Europe de l'ouest ont subi un déclin constant au cours des derniers siècles. Les causes de ce déclin sont probablement liées à l'activité humaine, telle .que l'élevage ou le tourisme, qui ont engendré une modification et une fragmentation de l'habitat de l'espèce. Malheureusement, les populations soumises à de forts déclins démographiques peuvent subir des effets génétiques (augmentation de la consanguinité et perte de diversité génétique) pouvant diminuer leur potentiel de reproduction et conduire irrémédiablement à l'extinction. Cette thèse présente les analyses conduites dans le but d'estimer l'impact du déclin démographique des populations de Grand tétras sur l'étendue et la distribution de leur variabilité génétique dans le Jura et dans les Pyrénées. Du fait de la législation locale protégeant les tétraonidés en général, mais également en raison de la biologie très cryptique du Grand tétras, l'ensemble des analyses de cette étude a été réalisé à partir de matériel génétique extrait des fientes (ou échantillonnage génétique non invasif). Dans la première partie de l'étude, je détaille les protocoles d'extraction. d'ADN et d'amplification par PCR modifiés à partir des protocoles classiques utilisant des échantillons conventionnels, riches en ADN. L'utilisation d'ADN fécal impose des contraintes dues à la mauvaise qualité et à la faible quantité du matériel génétique à disposition dans les fientes. Ces contraintes ont pu être partiellement contournées en réalisant des répétitions multiples du génotypage afin d'obtenir un degré de fiabilité suffisante. J'ai également analysé les causes de la dégradation de l'ADN dans les excréments. Parmi les causes les plus communes, telles que l'activité bactérienne, l'hydrolyse spontanée et la dégradation enzymatique par les DNases libres, c'est ce dernier facteur qui apparaît comme étant la cause majeure et la plus rapide responsable de la dégradation de la qualité des échantillons. La rapidité de l'action enzymatique suggère que les plans d'échantillonnages de excréments sur le terrain pourraient être optimisés en les réalisant dans des conditions climatiques froides et sèches, favorisant ainsi l'inhibition des DNases. La seconde partie de la thèse est une étude par simulation visant à déterminer la capacité du logiciel Structure à identifier les structures génétiques complexes et hiérarchiques fréquemment rencontrées dans les populations naturelles, et ce en utilisant différents types de marqueurs génétiques. Les troisième et quatrième parties de cette thèse décrivent le statut génétique des populations résiduelles du Jura et des Pyrénées à partir de l'analyse de 11 loci microsatellites. Nous n'avons pas pu mettre en évidence dans les deux populations des effets liés à la consanguinité ou à la réduction de la diversité génétique. De plus, la différenciation génétique entre les patches d'habitats favorables reste modérée et corrélée à la distance géographique, ce qui suggère que la dispersion d'individus entre les patches a été importante au moins pendant ces dernières générations. La comparaison des paramètres de la diversité génétique avec ceux d'autres populations de Grand tétras, ou d'autres espèces proches, indique que la population du Jura a retenu une proportion importante de sa diversité originelle. Ces résultats suggèrent que le déclin récent des populations a jusqu'ici eu un impact modéré sur les facteurs génétiques et que ces populations semblent avoir conservé le potentiel génétique nécessaire à leur survie à long terme. Finalement, en cinquième partie, l'analyse de l'apparentement entre les mâles qui participent à la parade sur les places de chant (leks) indique que ces derniers sont distribués en agrégats de manière non aléatoire, préférentiellement entre individus apparentés. De plus, la corrélation entre les distances génétique et géographique entre les leks est en accord avec les motifs d'isolement par la distance mis en évidence à d'autres niveaux hiérarchiques (entre patches d'habitat et populations), ainsi qu'avec les études menées sur d'autres espèces ayant choisi ce même système de reproduction. En conclusion, cette première étude basée uniquement sur de l'ADN nucléaire aviaire extrait à partir de fèces a fourni des informations nouvelles qui n'auraient pas pu être obtenues par une méthode d'observation sur le terrain ou d'échantillonnage génétique classique. Aucun oiseau n'a été dérangé ou capturé, et les résultats sont comparables à d'autres études concernant des espèces proches. Néanmoins, la taille de ces populations approche des niveaux au-dessous desquels la survie à long terme est fortement incertaine. La persistance de la diversité génétique pour les prochaines générations reste en conséquence liée à la survie des adultes et à une reprise du succès de la reproduction. ABSTRACT Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a large grouse that is continuously distributed across the tundra and the mid-high mountains of Western Europe. However, the populations in Western Europe have been showing a constant decline during the last decades. The causes for this decline are possibly related to human activities, such as cattle breeding and tourism that have both led to habitat modification and fragmentation. Unfortunately, populations that have undergone drastic demographic bottlenecks often go through genetic processes of inbreeding and loss of diversity that decrease their fitness and eventually lead to extinction. This thesis presents the investigations conducted to estimate the impact of the demographic decline of capercaillie populations on the extent and distribution of their genetic variability in the Jura and in the Pyrenees mountains. Because grouse are protected by wildlife legislation, and also because of the cryptic behaviour of capercaillie, all DNA material used in this study was extracted from faeces (non-invasive genetic sampling). In the first part of my thesis, I detail the protocols of DNA extraction and PCR amplification adapted from classical methods using conventional DNA-rich samples. The use of faecal DNA imposes specific constraints due to the low quantity and the highly degraded genetic material available. These constraints are partially overcome by performing multiple genotyping repetitions to obtain sufficient reliability. I also investigate the causes of DNA degradation in faeces. Among the main degraders, namely bacterial activity, spontaneous hydrolysis, and free-¬DNase activities, the latter was pointed out as the most important according to our experiments. These enzymes degrade DNA very rapidly, and, as a consequence, faeces sampling schemes must be planned preferably in cold and dry weather conditions, allowing for enzyme activity inhibition. The second part of the thesis is a simulation study aiming to assess the capacity of the software Structure to detect population structure in hierarchical models relevant to situations encountered in wild populations, using several genetic markers. The methods implemented in Structure appear efficient in detecting the highest hierarchical structure. The third and fourth parts of the thesis describe the population genetics status of the remaining Jura and Pyrenees populations using 11 microsatellite loci. In either of these populations, no inbreeding nor reduced genetic diversity was detected. Furthermore, the genetic differentiation between patches defined by habitat suitability remains moderate and correlated with geographical distance, suggesting that significant dispersion between patches was at work at least until the last generations. The comparison of diversity indicators with other species or other populations of capercaillie indicate that population in the Jura has retained a large part of its original genetic diversity. These results suggest that the recent decline has had so forth a moderate impact on• genetic factors and that these populations might have retained the potential for long term survival, if the decline is stopped. Finally, in the fifth part, the analysis of relatedness between males participating in the reproduction parade, or lek, indicate that capercaillie males, like has been shown for some other grouse species, gather on leks• among individuals that are more related than the average of the population. This pattern appears to be due to both population structure and kin-association. As a conclusion, this first study relying exclusively on nuclear DNA extracted from faeces has provided novel information that was not available through field observation or classical genetic sampling. No bird has been captured or disturbed, and the results are consistent with other studies of closely related species. However, the size of these populations is approaching thresholds below which long-term survival is unlikely. The persistence of genetic diversity for the forthcoming generations remains therefore bond to adult survival and to the increase of reproduction success.

Practical applications of a systematic approach to the chemical abatement of pollutants in water and air

The present dissertation is devoted to the systematic approach to the development of organic toxic and refractory pollutants abatement by chemical decomposition methods in aqueous and gaseous phases. The systematic approach outlines the basic scenario of chemical decomposition process applications with a step-by-step approximation to the most effective result with a predictable outcome for the full-scale application, confirmed by successful experience. The strategy includes the following steps: chemistry studies, reaction kinetic studies in interaction with the mass transfer processes under conditions of different control parameters, contact equipment design and studies, mathematical description of the process for its modelling and simulation, processes integration into treatment technology and its optimisation, and the treatment plant design. The main idea of the systematic approach for oxidation process introduction consists of a search for the most effective combination between the chemical reaction and the treatment device, in which the reaction is supposed to take place. Under this strategy,a knowledge of the reaction pathways, its products, stoichiometry and kinetics is fundamental and, unfortunately, often unavailable from the preliminary knowledge. Therefore, research made in chemistry on novel treatment methods, comprisesnowadays a substantial part of the efforts. Chemical decomposition methods in the aqueous phase include oxidation by ozonation, ozone-associated methods (O3/H2O2, O3/UV, O3/TiO2), Fenton reagent (H2O2/Fe2+/3+) and photocatalytic oxidation (PCO). In the gaseous phase, PCO and catalytic hydrolysis over zero valent ironsare developed. The experimental studies within the described methodology involve aqueous phase oxidation of natural organic matter (NOM) of potable water, phenolic and aromatic amino compounds, ethylene glycol and its derivatives as de-icing agents, and oxygenated motor fuel additives ¿ methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) ¿ in leachates and polluted groundwater. Gas-phase chemical decomposition includes PCO of volatile organic compounds and dechlorination of chlorinated methane derivatives. The results of the research summarised here are presented in fifteenattachments (publications and papers submitted for publication and under preparation).

Metal surface and subsurface inspection using nondestructive optical methods

This thesis considers nondestructive optical methods for metal surface and subsurface inspection. The main purpose of this thesis was to study some optical methods in order to find out their applicability to industrial measurements. In laboratory testing the simplest light scattering approach, measurement of specular reflectance, was used for surface roughness evaluation. Surface roughness, curvature and finishing process of metal sheets were determined by specular reflectance measurements. Using a fixed angleof incidence, the specular reflectance method might be automated for industrialinspection. For defect detection holographic interferometry and thermography were compared. Using either holographic interferometry or thermography, relativelysmall-size defects in metal plates could be revealed. Holographic techniques have some limitations for industrial measurements. On the contrary, thermography has excellent prospects for on-line inspection, especially with scanning techniques.

Discovering New Markets for an Industrial Product – International Market Selection Approach

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena oli määrittää uuden markkinan valinnan perusteita teolliselle tuotteelle. Tutkielma keskittyi jo tunnettuihin kansainvälisen markkinavalinnan lähestymistapoihin ja pyrki soveltamaan yhtä menetelmää käytäntöön tutkielman empiria osassa case-tutkimuksen avulla. Tutkimusote oli tutkiva, eksploratiivinen ja perustui sekundääri analyysiin. Käytetyt tiedon lähteet olivat suureksi osin sekundäärisiä tuottaen kvalitatiivista tietoa. Kuitenkin haastatteluita suoritettiin myös. Kattava kirjallisuus katsaus tunnetuista teoreettisista lähestymistavoista kansainväliseen markkinavalintaan oli osa tutkielmaa. Kolme tärkeintä lähestymistapaa esiteltiin tarkemmin. Yksi lähestymistavoista, ei-järjestelmällinen, muodosti viitekehyksen tutkielman empiria-osalle. Empiria pyrki soveltamaan yhtä ei-järjestelmällisen lähestymistavan malleista kansainvälisessä paperiteollisuudessa. Tarkoituksena oli tunnistaa kaikkein houkuttelevimmat maat mahdollisille markkinointitoimenpiteille tuotteen yhdellä loppukäyttöalueella. Tutkielmassa päädyttiin käyttämään ilmastollisia olosuhteita, siipikarjan päälukua sekä siipikarjan kasvuprosenttia suodattimina pyrittäessä vähentämään mahdollisten maiden lukumäärää. Tutkielman empiria-osa kärsi selkeästi relevantin tiedon puutteesta. Siten myös tutkielman reliabiliteetti ja validiteetti voidaan jossain määrin kyseenalaistaa.