Payoff levels, loss avoidance, and equilibrium selection in the Stag Hunt: an experimental study

Game theorists typically assume that changing a game’s payoff levels—by adding the same constant to, or subtracting it from, all payoffs—should not affect behavior. While this invariance is an implication of the theory when payoffs mirror expected utilities, it is an empirical question when the “payoffs” are actually money amounts. In particular, if individuals treat monetary gains and losses differently, then payoff–level changes may matter when they result in positive payoffs becoming negative, or vice versa. We report the results of a human–subjects experiment designed to test for two types of loss avoidance: certain–loss avoidance (avoiding a strategy leading to a sure loss, in favor of an alternative that might lead to a gain) and possible–loss avoidance (avoiding a strategy leading to a possible loss, in favor of an alternative that leads to a sure gain). Subjects in the experiment play three versions of Stag Hunt, which are identical up to the level of payoffs, under a variety of treatments. We find differences in behavior across the three versions of Stag Hunt; these differences are hard to detect in the first round of play, but grow over time. When significant, the differences we find are in the direction predicted by certain– and possible–loss avoidance. Our results carry implications for games with multiple equilibria, and for theories that attempt to select among equilibria in such games.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Recurrent loss of heterozygosity in 1p36 associated with TNFRSF14 mutations in IRF4 translocation negative pediatric follicular lymphomas.

Pediatric follicular lymphoma is a rare disease that differs genetically and clinically from its adult counterpart. With the exception of pediatric follicular lymphoma with IRF4-translocation, the genetic events associated with these lymphomas have not yet been defined. We applied array-comparative genomic hybridization and molecular inversion probe assay analyses to formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues from 18 patients aged 18 years and under with IRF4 translocation negative follicular lymphoma. All evaluable cases lacked t(14;18). Only 6 of 16 evaluable cases displayed chromosomal imbalances with gains or amplifications of 6pter-p24.3 (including IRF4) and deletion and copy number neutral-loss of heterozygosity in 1p36 (including TNFRSF14) being most frequent. Sequencing of TNFRSF14 located in the minimal region of loss in 1p36.32 showed nine mutations in 7 cases from our series. Two subsets of pediatric follicular lymphoma were delineated according to the presence of molecular alterations, one with genomic aberrations associated with higher grade and/or diffuse large B-cell lymphoma component and more widespread disease, and another one lacking genetic alterations associated with more limited disease.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Chronic exercise preserves lean muscle mass in masters athletes.

Aging is commonly associated with a loss of muscle mass and strength, resulting in falls, functional decline, and the subjective feeling of weakness. Exercise modulates the morbidities of muscle aging. Most studies, however, have examined muscle-loss changes in sedentary aging adults. This leaves the question of whether the changes that are commonly associated with muscle aging reflect the true physiology of muscle aging or whether they reflect disuse atrophy. This study evaluated whether high levels of chronic exercise prevents the loss of lean muscle mass and strength experienced in sedentary aging adults. A cross-section of 40 high-level recreational athletes ("masters athletes") who were aged 40 to 81 years and trained 4 to 5 times per week underwent tests of health/activity, body composition, quadriceps peak torque (PT), and magnetic resonance imaging of bilateral quadriceps. Mid-thigh muscle area, quadriceps area (QA), subcutaneous adipose tissue, and intramuscular adipose tissue were quantified in magnetic resonance imaging using medical image processing, analysis, and visualization software. One-way analysis of variance was used to examine age group differences. Relationships were evaluated using Spearman correlations. Mid-thigh muscle area (P = 0.31) and lean mass (P = 0.15) did not increase with age and were significantly related to retention of mid-thigh muscle area (P < 0.0001). This occurred despite an increase in total body fat percentage (P = 0.003) with age. Mid-thigh muscle area (P = 0.12), QA (P = 0.17), and quadriceps PT did not decline with age. Specific strength (strength per QA) did not decline significantly with age (P = 0.06). As muscle area increased, PT increased significantly (P = 0.008). There was not a significant relationship between intramuscular adipose tissue (P = 0.71) or lean mass (P = 0.4) and PT. This study contradicts the common observation that muscle mass and strength decline as a function of aging alone. Instead, these declines may signal the effect of chronic disuse rather than muscle aging. Evaluation of masters athletes removes disuse as a confounding variable in the study of lower-extremity function and loss of lean muscle mass. This maintenance of muscle mass and strength may decrease or eliminate the falls, functional decline, and loss of independence that are commonly seen in aging adults.

A chromosome 9 deletion in Plasmodium falciparum results in loss of cytoadherence

Many lines of Plasmodium falciparum undrgo a deletion of the right end of chromosome 9 during in vitro culture accompanied by loss of cytoadherence and gametocytogenesis. Selection of cytoadherent cells from a mixed population co-selects for those with an undeleted chromosome 9 and selected cells produce gametocytes. The deletion also results in loss of expression of PfEMP1, the putative cytoadherence ligand, suggesting PfEMP1 or a regulatory gene controlling PfEMP1 expression and gametocytogenesis may be encoded in this region. We have isolated several markers for the deleted region and are currently using a YAC-P. falciparum library to investigate this region of the genome in detail.

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Dose-dependent positive association between cigarette smoking, abdominal obesity and body fat: cross-sectional data from a population-based survey.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index than non-smokers, smoking may favour abdominal body fat accumulation. To our knowledge, no population-based studies have assessed the relationship between smoking and body fat composition. We assessed the association between cigarette smoking and waist circumference, body fat, and body-mass index. METHODS: Height, weight, and waist circumference were measured among 6,123 Caucasians (ages 35-75) from a cross-sectional population-based study in Switzerland. Abdominal obesity was defined as waist circumference>=102 cm for men and >=88 cm for women. Body fat (percent total body weight) was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Age- and sex-specific body fat cut-offs were used to define excess body fat. Cigarettes smoked per day were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Age-adjusted means and odds ratios were calculated using linear and logistic regression. RESULTS: Current smokers (29% of men and 24% of women) had lower mean waist circumference, body fat percentage, and body-mass index compared with non-smokers. Age-adjusted mean waist circumference and body fat increased with cigarettes smoked per day among smokers. The association between cigarettes smoked per day and body-mass index was non-significant. Compared with light smokers, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for abdominal obesity in men was 1.28 (0.78-2.10) for moderate smokers and 1.94 (1.15-3.27) for heavy smokers (P=0.03 for trend), and 1.07 (0.72-1.58) and 2.15 (1.26-3.64) in female moderate and heavy smokers, respectively (P<0.01 for trend). Compared with light smokers, the OR for excess body fat in men was 1.05 (95% CI: 0.58-1.92) for moderate smokers and 1.15 (0.60-2.20) for heavy smokers (P=0.75 for trend) and 1.34 (0.89-2.00) and 2.11 (1.25-3.57), respectively in women (P=0.07 for trend). CONCLUSION: Among smokers, cigarettes smoked per day were positively associated with central fat accumulation, particularly in women.

Loss of ability to work and ability to live independently in Parkinson's disease.

OBJECTIVE: Ability to work and live independently is of particular concern for patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). We studied a series of PD patients able to work or live independently at baseline, and evaluated potential risk factors for two separate outcomes: loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. METHODS: The series comprised 495 PD patients followed prospectively. Ability to work and ability to live independently were based on clinical interview and examination. Cox regression models adjusted for age and disease duration were used to evaluate associations of baseline characteristics with loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently. RESULTS: Higher UPDRS dyskinesia score, UPDRS instability score, UPDRS total score, Hoehn and Yahr stage, and presence of intellectual impairment at baseline were all associated with increased risk of future loss of ability to work and loss of ability to live independently (P ≤ 0.0033). Five years after initial visit, for patients ≤70 years of age with a disease duration ≤4 years at initial visit, 88% were still able to work and 90% to live independently. These estimates worsened as age and disease duration at initial visit increased; for patients >70 years of age with a disease duration >4 years, estimates at 5 years were 43% able to work and 57% able to live independently. CONCLUSIONS: The information provided in this study can offer useful information for PD patients in preparing for future ability to perform activities of daily living.

Spontaneous subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse: presentation of four cases

BACKGROUND: Subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse is a benign entity characterized by orbital fat herniation through a dehiscence in Tenon's capsule, usually between the superior and lateral recti muscles. It is often associated with ocular trauma or surgery, although spontaneous cases have also been reported with a predilection for obese individuals. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study of four subconjunctival orbital-fat prolapse cases with no history of ocular surgery or trauma was performed. A trans-conjunctival surgical approach with Tenon's capsule repair was offered to all subjects. Differential diagnosis is discussed. RESULTS: The diagnosis of subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse was confirmed in all cases by histopathological examination. Functional and aesthetic postoperative results were excellent, with no recurrences during follow-up, for all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although rare, subconjunctival orbital fat prolapse should be recognized. Surgical management offers excellent results.

Hypoxia/hypoglycemia preconditioning prevents the loss of functional electrical activity in organotypic slice cultures.

In cerebral ischemic preconditioning (IPC), a first sublethal ischemia increases the resistance of neurons to a subsequent severe ischemia. Despite numerous studies, the mechanisms are not yet fully understood. Our goal is to develop an in vitro model of IPC on hippocampal organotypic slice cultures. Instead of anoxia, we chose to apply varying degrees of hypoxia that allows us various levels of insult graded from mild to severe. Cultures are exposed to combined oxygen and glucose deprivation (OGD) of varying intensities, ranging from mild to severe, assessing both the electrical activity and cell death. IPC was accomplished by exposure to the mildest ischemia condition (10% of O2 for 15 min) 24 h before the severe deprivation (5% of O2 for 30 min). Interestingly, IPC not only prevented delayed ischemic cell death 6 days after insult but also the transient loss of evoked potential response. The major interest and advantage of this system over both the acute slice preparation and primary cell cultures is the ability to simultaneously measure the delayed neuronal damage and neuronal function.

Failure of dietary fat intake to promote fat oxidation: a factor favoring the development of obesity.

Seven young men spent three nights and 2 d in a respiration chamber where their rates of energy expenditure and substrate oxidation were continuously measured by indirect calorimetry. During the first 24 h they ingested a mixed maintenance diet containing 35% of calories as fat. An additional amount of 106 +/- 6 g fat/24 h (means +/- SD) was added to this diet during the following 36 h. The fat supplement (987 +/- 55 kcal/d) did not alter 24-h energy expenditure (2783 +/- 232 vs 2820 +/- 284 kcal/d) and failed to promote the use of fat as a metabolic fuel (fat oxidation 1032 +/- 205 vs 1042 +/- 205 kcal/d). The overall energy balance was closely correlated with the fat balance (r = 0.96, p less than 0.001) but not with the carbohydrate balance (r = -0.12, NS). These data indicate that substantial imbalances between intake and oxidation are much more likely for fat than for carbohydrate.

The effect of ethanol on fat storage in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Ethanol can account for up to 10 percent of the energy intake of persons who consume moderate amounts of ethanol. Its effect on energy metabolism, however, is not known. METHODS: We studied the effect of ethanol on 24-hour substrate-oxidation rates in eight normal men during two 48-hour sessions in an indirect-calorimetry chamber. In each session, the first 24 hours served as the control period. On the second day of one session, an additional 25 percent of the total energy requirement was added as ethanol (mean [+/- SD], 96 +/- 4 g per day); during the other session, 25 percent of the total energy requirement was replaced by ethanol, which was isocalorically substituted for lipids and carbohydrates. RESULTS: Both the addition of ethanol and the isocaloric substitution of ethanol for other foods reduced 24-hour lipid oxidation. The respective mean (+/- SE) decreases were 49.4 +/- 6.7 and 44.1 +/- 9.3 g per day (i.e., reductions of 36 +/- 3 percent and 31 +/- 7 percent from the oxidation rate during the control day; P less than 0.001 and P less than 0.0025). This effect occurred only during the daytime period (8:30 a.m. to 11:30 p.m.), when ethanol was consumed and metabolized. Neither the addition of ethanol to the diet nor the isocaloric substitution of ethanol for other foods significantly altered the oxidation of carbohydrate or protein. Both regimens including ethanol produced an increase in 24-hour energy expenditure (7 +/- 1 percent with the addition of ethanol, P less than 0.001; 4 +/- 1 percent with the substitution of ethanol for other energy sources, P less than 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Ethanol, either added to the diet or substituted for other foods, increases 24-hour energy expenditure and decreases lipid oxidation. Habitual consumption of ethanol in excess of energy needs probably favors lipid storage and weight gain.

Loss of connexin40 is associated with decreased endothelium-dependent relaxations and eNOS levels in the mouse aorta.

Upon agonist stimulation, endothelial cells trigger smooth muscle relaxation through the release of relaxing factors such as nitric oxide (NO). Endothelial cells of mouse aorta are interconnected by gap junctions made of connexin40 (Cx40) and connexin37 (Cx37), allowing the exchange of signaling molecules to coordinate their activity. Wild-type (Cx40(+/+)) and hypertensive Cx40-deficient mice (Cx40(-/-)), which also exhibit a marked decrease of Cx37 in the endothelium, were used to investigate the link between the expression of endothelial connexins (Cx40 and Cx37) and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) expression and function in the mouse aorta. With the use of isometric tension measurements in aortic rings precontracted with U-46619, a stable thromboxane A(2) mimetic, we first demonstrate that ACh- and ATP-induced endothelium-dependent relaxations solely depend on NO release in both Cx40(+/+) and Cx40(-/-) mice, but are markedly weaker in Cx40(-/-) mice. Consistently, both basal and ACh- or ATP-induced NO production were decreased in the aorta of Cx40(-/-) mice. Altered relaxations and NO release from aorta of Cx40(-/-) mice were associated with lower expression levels of eNOS in the aortic endothelium of Cx40(-/-) mice. Using immunoprecipitation and in situ ligation assay, we further demonstrate that eNOS, Cx40, and Cx37 tightly interact with each other at intercellular junctions in the aortic endothelium of Cx40(+/+) mice, suggesting that the absence of Cx40 in association with altered Cx37 levels in endothelial cells from Cx40(-/-) mice participate to the decreased levels of eNOS. Altogether, our data suggest that the endothelial connexins may participate in the control of eNOS expression levels and function.