Expected and Unexpected Consequences of the Educational Expansion in Europe and the US. Theoretical approaches and empirical findings in comparative perspective

A main mechanism behind the change in European and North American societies in the second half of the 20th century is the educational expansion, i.e. the increase in educational opportunities and the higher demand for education. Whereas other abstract social processes like modernization have been widely theorized in social science literature, the educational expansion and its consequences in particular have not been well studied. Therefore the main aim of this compilation is to deal with the question of whether the demands of the educational reforms have been fulfilled and which other consequences the educational expansion has had. This book will focus on consequences of the educational expansion for individuals and their life courses as well as for the social structure and other societal areas such as culture and politics. Aspects that will be analysed in the light of educational expansion include participation in education, educational inequalities, labour market outcomes, educational returns, and gender differences as well as crime, life expectancy, and lifestyles. Countries analysed in the book include West European countries like Germany, France, Italy and Spain, East European countries (Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic) as well as the US.

Expected performance of the ATLAS experiment - detector, trigger and physics

A detailed study is presented of the expected performance of the ATLAS detector. The reconstruction of tracks, leptons, photons, missing energy and jets is investigated, together with the performance of b-tagging and the trigger. The physics potential for a variety of interesting physics processes, within the Standard Model and beyond, is examined. The study comprises a series of notes based on simulations of the detector and physics processes, with particular emphasis given to the data expected from the first years of operation of the LHC at CERN.

Who has really paid for the Reconstruction of East Germany? Expected and Realized Returns on Real Estate Investments in East and West Germany in the 1990s

We evaluate the profitability of investments in residential property in Germany after unification with a focus on the comparison of East and West Germany. Calculations are carried out for (1) the after-tax return an investor might have expected at the beginning of the 1990s, and (2) the after-tax return that has been realized ten years after. We compare a set of statistical data for investments in fifty major cities by using complete financial budgeting. The results show that tax subsidies could not always protect investors from losing money, but they have boosted realized returns after tax considerably. Therefore, it was indeed the taxpayers, not the investors, who have borne the cost of reconstructing East Germany.

Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

Using Dynamic Programming Decomposition for Revenue Management with Opaque Products

Opaque products enable service providers to hide specific characteristics of their service fulfillment from the customer until after purchase. Prominent examples include internet-based service providers selling airline tickets without defining details, such as departure time or operating airline, until the booking has been made. Owing to the resulting flexibility in resource utilization, the traditional revenue management process needs to be modified. In this paper, we extend dynamic programming decomposition techniques widely used for traditional revenue management to develop an intuitive capacity control approach that allows for the incorporation of opaque products. In a simulation study, we show that the developed approach significantly outperforms other well-known capacity control approaches adapted to the opaque product setting. Based on the approach, we also provide computational examples of how the share of opaque products as well as the degree of opacity can influence the results.

Educational Expansion and Persistent Inequalities of Education: Utilizing the Subjective Expected Utility Theory to Explain the Increasing Participation Rates in Upper Secondary School in the Federal Republic Of Germany

This investigation attempts to answer the question why more and more parents have chosen the Gymnasium for their children's secondary school education in post‐war West Germany. Based on the theory of subjective expected utility, the crucial mechanisms of parental educational decisions have been emphasized. From this perspective it is assumed that increasing educational motivation coupled with changes in the subjective evaluation of the cost–benefit of education were important conditions for an increasing participation in upper secondary schools. These were, however, in turn, the result of educational expansion. The empirical analyses for three time‐periods in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s confirm these assumptions to a large degree. Additionally, empirical evidence was found to suggest that in addition to the intentions of parents and the educational career of their children, structural moments of educational expansion and their own inertia played an important role in the pupils' transition from one educational level to the next. Finally, evidence was found that persistent class‐specific educational inequality stems from a constant balance in the relative cost–benefit advantages between social classes as well as from an increasing difference of primary origin effect between social classes in the realization of their educational choice.

Parentage analysis with genetic markers in natural populations. I. The expected proportion of offspring with unambiguous paternity.

Recent studies indicate that polymorphic genetic markers are potentially helpful in resolving genealogical relationships among individuals in a natural population. Genetic data provide opportunities for paternity exclusion when genotypic incompatibilities are observed among individuals, and the present investigation examines the resolving power of genetic markers in unambiguous positive determination of paternity. Under the assumption that the mother for each offspring in a population is unambiguously known, an analytical expression for the fraction of males excluded from paternity is derived for the case where males and females may be derived from two different gene pools. This theoretical formulation can also be used to predict the fraction of births for each of which all but one male can be excluded from paternity. We show that even when the average probability of exclusion approaches unity, a substantial fraction of births yield equivocal mother-father-offspring determinations. The number of loci needed to increase the frequency of unambiguous determinations to a high level is beyond the scope of current electrophoretic studies in most species. Applications of this theory to electrophoretic data on Chamaelirium luteum (L.) shows that in 2255 offspring derived from 273 males and 70 females, only 57 triplets could be unequivocally determined with eight polymorphic protein loci, even though the average combined exclusionary power of these loci was 73%. The distribution of potentially compatible male parents, based on multilocus genotypes, was reasonably well predicted from the allele frequency data available for these loci. We demonstrate that genetic paternity analysis in natural populations cannot be reliably based on exclusionary principles alone. In order to measure the reproductive contributions of individuals in natural populations, more elaborate likelihood principles must be deployed.

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Expected impact of applying new 2013 AHA/ACC cholesterol guidelines criteria on the recommended lipid target achievement after acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines on the treatment of cholesterol advised to tailor high-intensity statin after ACS, while previous ATP-III recommended titration of statin to reach low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) targets. We simulated the impact of this change of paradigm on the achievement of recommended targets. METHODS Among a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized for ACS from 2009 to 2012 at four Swiss university hospitals, we analyzed 1602 patients who survived one year after recruitment. Targets based on the previous guidelines approach was defined as (1) achievement of LDL-C target < 1.8 mmol/l, (2) reduction of LDL-C ≥ 50% or (3) intensification of statin in patients who did not reach LDL-C targets. Targets based on the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines approach was defined as the maximization of statin therapy at high-intensity in patients aged ≤75 years and moderate- or high-intensity statin in patients >75 years. RESULTS 1578 (99%) patients were prescribed statin at discharge, with 1120 (70%) at high-intensity. 1507 patients (94%) reported taking statin at one year, with 909 (57%) at high-intensity. Among 482 patients discharged with sub-maximal statin, intensification of statin was only observed in 109 patients (23%). 773 (47%) patients reached the previous LDL-C targets, while 1014 (63%) reached the 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines targetsone year after ACS (p value < 0.001). CONCLUSION The application of the new 2013 AHA/ACC guidelines criteria would substantially increase the proportion of patients achieving recommended lipid targets one year after ACS. Clinical trial number, NCT01075868.

Expected Shortfall is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk - Implications for backtesting

In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the recent result of Fissler and Ziegel (2015) that ES is jointly elicitable with Value at Risk.

Differentiating the Multipoint Expected Improvement for Optimal Batch Design

This work deals with parallel optimization of expensive objective functions which are modelled as sample realizations of Gaussian processes. The study is formalized as a Bayesian optimization problem, or continuous multi-armed bandit problem, where a batch of q > 0 arms is pulled in parallel at each iteration. Several algorithms have been developed for choosing batches by trading off exploitation and exploration. As of today, the maximum Expected Improvement (EI) and Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) selection rules appear as the most prominent approaches for batch selection. Here, we build upon recent work on the multipoint Expected Improvement criterion, for which an analytic expansion relying on Tallis’ formula was recently established. The computational burden of this selection rule being still an issue in application, we derive a closed-form expression for the gradient of the multipoint Expected Improvement, which aims at facilitating its maximization using gradient-based ascent algorithms. Substantial computational savings are shown in application. In addition, our algorithms are tested numerically and compared to state-of-the-art UCB-based batchsequential algorithms. Combining starting designs relying on UCB with gradient-based EI local optimization finally appears as a sound option for batch design in distributed Gaussian Process optimization.

Costly Revenue-Raising and the Case for Favoring Import-Competing Industries

A standard finding in the political economy of trade policy literature is that we should expect export-oriented industries to attract more assistance than import-competing industries. In reality, however, trade policy is heavily biased toward supporting import industries. This paper shows within a standard protection for sale framework, how the costliness of raising revenue via taxation makes trade subsidies less desirable and trade taxes more desirable. The model is then estimated and its predictions tested using U.S. tariff data. An empirical estimate of the costliness of revenue-raising is also obtained.