A pragmatic Bayesian approach to wind field retrieval

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about 800 km, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of backscatter microwave radiation reflected by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by sea-surface winds, and so provides instantaneous snap-shots of wind flow over large areas of the ocean surface, known as wind fields. Inherent in the physics of the observation process is an ambiguity in wind direction; the scatterometer cannot distinguish if the wind is blowing toward or away from the sensor device. This ambiguity implies that there is a one-to-many mapping between scatterometer data and wind direction. Current operational methods for wind field retrieval are based on the retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data, followed by a disambiguation and filtering process that is reliant on numerical weather prediction models. The wind vectors are retrieved by the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, and minimising a cost function in scatterometer measurement space. This thesis applies a pragmatic Bayesian solution to the problem. The likelihood is a combination of conditional probability distributions for the local wind vectors given the scatterometer data. The prior distribution is a vector Gaussian process that provides the geophysical consistency for the wind field. The wind vectors are retrieved directly from the scatterometer data by using mixture density networks, a principled method to model multi-modal conditional probability density functions. The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated. A hybrid mixture density network, that incorporates the knowledge that the conditional probability distribution of the observation process is predominantly bi-modal, is developed. The optimal model, which generalises across a swathe of scatterometer readings, is better on key performance measures than the current operational model. Wind field retrieval is approached from three perspectives. The first is a non-autonomous method that confirms the validity of the model by retrieving the correct wind field 99% of the time from a test set of 575 wind fields. The second technique takes the maximum a posteriori probability wind field retrieved from the posterior distribution as the prediction. For the third technique, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were employed to estimate the mass associated with significant modes of the posterior distribution, and make predictions based on the mode with the greatest mass associated with it. General methods for sampling from multi-modal distributions were benchmarked against a specific MCMC transition kernel designed for this problem. It was shown that the general methods were unsuitable for this application due to computational expense. On a test set of 100 wind fields the MAP estimate correctly retrieved 72 wind fields, whilst the sampling method correctly retrieved 73 wind fields.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

The derivation and application of risk tolerability criteria

This research involves a study of the questions, "what is considered safe", how are safety levels defined or decided, and according to whom. Tolerable or acceptable risk questions raise various issues: about values and assumptions inherent in such levels; about decision-making frameworks at the highest level of policy making as well as on the individual level; and about the suitability and competency of decision-makers to decide and to communicate their decisions. The wide-ranging topics covering philosophical and practical concerns examined in the literature review reveal the multi-disciplined scope of this research. To support this theoretical study empirical research was undertaken at the European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC) of the European Space Agency (ESA). ESTEC is a large, multi-nationality, high technology organisation which presented an ideal case study for exploring how decisions are made with respect to safety from a personal as well as organisational aspect. A qualitative methodology was employed to gather, analyse and report the findings of this research. Significant findings reveal how experts perceive risks and the prevalence of informal decision-making processes partly due to the inadequacy of formal methods for deciding risk tolerability. In the field of occupational health and safety, this research has highlighted the importance and need for criteria to decide whether a risk is great enough to warrant attention in setting standards and priorities for risk control and resources. From a wider perspective and with the recognition that risk is an inherent part of life, the establishment of tolerability risk levels can be viewed as cornerstones indicating our progress, expectations and values, of life and work, in an increasingly litigious, knowledgeable and global society.

Special Functions and Pathways for Problems in Astrophysics: An Essay in Honor of A.M. Mathai

The paper provides a review of A.M. Mathai's applications of the theory of special functions, particularly generalized hypergeometric functions, to problems in stellar physics and formation of structure in the Universe and to questions related to reaction, diffusion, and reaction-diffusion models. The essay also highlights Mathai's recent work on entropic, distributional, and differential pathways to basic concepts in statistical mechanics, making use of his earlier research results in information and statistical distribution theory. The results presented in the essay cover a period of time in Mathai's research from 1982 to 2008 and are all related to the thematic area of the gravitationally stabilized solar fusion reactor and fractional reaction-diffusion, taking into account concepts of non-extensive statistical mechanics. The time period referred to above coincides also with Mathai's exceptional contributions to the establishment and operation of the Centre for Mathematical Sciences, India, as well as the holding of the United Nations (UN)/European Space Agency (ESA)/National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States/ Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Workshops on basic space science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007, around the world. Professor Mathai's contributions to the latter, since 1991, are a testimony for his social con-science applied to international scientific activity.

Safety criteria for the private spaceflight industry

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) has set specific rules and generic guidelines to cover experimental and operational flights by industry forerunners such as Virgin Galactic and XCOR. One such guideline Advisory Circular (AC) 437.55-1[1] contains exemplar hazard analyses for spacecraft designers and operators to follow under an experimental permit. The FAA's rules and guidelines have also been ratified in a report to the United States Congress, Analysis of Human Space Flight Safety[2] which cites that the industry is too immature and has 'insufficient data' to be proscriptive and that 'defining a minimum set of criteria for human spaceflight service providers is potentially problematic' in order not to 'stifle the emerging industry'. The authors of this paper acknowledge the immaturity of the industry and discuss the problematic issues that Design Organisations and Operators now face.

Selection of a network of large lakes and reservoirs suitable for global environmental change analysis using Earth Observation

The GloboLakes project, a global observatory of lake responses to environmental change, aims to exploit current satellite missions and long remote-sensing archives to synoptically study multiple lake ecosystems, assess their current condition, reconstruct past trends to system trajectories, and assess lake sensitivity to multiple drivers of change. Here we describe the selection protocol for including lakes in the global observatory based upon remote-sensing techniques and an initial pool of the largest 3721 lakes and reservoirs in the world, as listed in the Global Lakes and Wetlands Database. An 18-year-long archive of satellite data was used to create spatial and temporal filters for the identification of waterbodies that are appropriate for remote-sensing methods. Further criteria were applied and tested to ensure the candidate sites span a wide range of ecological settings and characteristics; a total 960 lakes, lagoons, and reservoirs were selected. The methodology proposed here is applicable to new generation satellites, such as the European Space Agency Sentinel-series.

HDPR: A Mobile Testbed for Current and Future Rover Technologies

The paper in hand presents a mobile testbed –namely the Heavy Duty Planetary Rover (HDPR)– that was designed and constructed at the Automation and Robotics Laboratories (ARL) of the European Space Agency to fulfill the lab’s internal needs in the context of long range rover exploration as well as in order to provide the means to perform in situ testing of novel algorithms. We designed a rover that: a) is able to reliably perform long range routes, and b) carries an abundant of sensors (both current rover technology and futuristic ones). The testbed includes all the additional hardware and software (i.e. ground control station, UAV, networking, mobile power) to allow the prompt deployment on the field. The reader can find in the paper the description of the system as well as a report on our experiences during our first experiments with the testbed.

Análisis de preferencias del paisaje urbano entre barrios compactos y barrios postindustriales en Vitoria-Gasteiz. Implicaciones en la planificación urbana

Las características urbanísticas de las expansiones urbanas postindustriales desarrolladas en las últimas décadas en numerosas ciudades españolas presentan diferencias notables con las de barrios centrales y pericentrales más compactos preexistentes. Con el fin de estudiar cómo son percibidas por los ciudadanos de Vitoria-Gasteiz dichas diferencias urbanísticas, se realizaron 250 encuestas a residentes en los barrios compactos de la ciudad sobre sus preferencias entre el paisaje urbano de su barrio y el de los barrios postindustriales. Se observó que la gran mayoría de los encuestados prefirieron su compacto barrio en aspectos de sociabilidad, accesibilidad a servicios y bienestar global. Los resultados obtenidos se contrastaron con los de un estudio previo en el que una encuesta similar fue realizada a residentes en un barrio postindustrial. Se discuten las implicaciones de los resultados para desarrollar una práctica urbanística más sostenible y que integre la percepción de los usuarios de la ciudad.

Propuesta sostenible para mitigar los efectos climáticos adversos en una ciudad costera de Argentina

Los indicadores de sostenibilidad climática constituyen herramientas fundamentales para complementar las políticas de ordenamiento del territorio urbano y pueden beneficiar la calidad de vida sus habitantes. En el presente trabajo se diseñó un indicador climático urbano para la ciudad de Bahía Blanca considerando variables meteorológicas y análisis de la percepción social. El mismo permitió delimitar la ciudad en cuatro regiones bien diferenciadas entre sí. A partir de entonces, se realizó una propuesta sostenible para mitigar los efectos adversos del clima a partir de la aplicación del método DPSIR. Las mismas estuvieron destinadas a mejorar las condiciones de vida de la población. Los resultados permitieron considerar que una pronta implementación de la misma junto con una activa participación de los actores sociales y los tomadores de decisiones es necesaria para mejorar las condiciones actuales en la que se encuentra la ciudad. Con las medidas propuestas, la población local sabrá cómo actuar ante la ocurrencia de distintos eventos extremos, eventos de desconfort climático, etc. Al ser un método sencillo, la metodología aplicada en este estudio puede replicarse en otras ciudades del mundo con el objetivo de mejorar la calidad de vida de los habitantes.

Macroscopic Quantum Resonators (MAQRO): 2015 update

Do the laws of quantum physics still hold for macroscopic objects - this is at the heart of Schrödinger’s cat paradox - or do gravitation or yet unknown effects set a limit for massive particles? What is the fundamental relation between quantum physics and gravity? Ground-based experiments addressing these questions may soon face limitations due to limited free-fall times and the quality of vacuum and microgravity. The proposed mission Macroscopic Quantum Resonators (MAQRO) may overcome these limitations and allow addressing such fundamental questions. MAQRO harnesses recent developments in quantum optomechanics, high-mass matter-wave interferometry as well as state-of-the-art space technology to push macroscopic quantum experiments towards their ultimate performance limits and to open new horizons for applying quantum technology in space. The main scientific goal is to probe the vastly unexplored ‘quantum-classical’ transition for increasingly massive objects, testing the predictions of quantum theory for objects in a size and mass regime unachievable in ground-based experiments. The hardware will largely be based on available space technology. Here, we present the MAQRO proposal submitted in response to the 4th Cosmic Vision call for a medium-sized mission (M4) in 2014 of the European Space Agency (ESA) with a possible launch in 2025, and we review the progress with respect to the original MAQRO proposal for the 3rd Cosmic Vision call for a medium-sized mission (M3) in 2010. In particular, the updated proposal overcomes several critical issues of the original proposal by relying on established experimental techniques from high-mass matter-wave interferometry and by introducing novel ideas for particle loading and manipulation. Moreover, the mission design was improved to better fulfill the stringent environmental requirements for macroscopic quantum experiments.

Towards a gravitational wave observatory designer: sensitivity limits of spaceborne detectors

The most promising concept for low frequency (millihertz to hertz) gravitational wave observatories are laser interferometric detectors in space. It is usually assumed that the noise floor for such a detector is dominated by optical shot noise in the signal readout. For this to be true, a careful balance of mission parameters is crucial to keep all other parasitic disturbances below shot noise. We developed a web application that uses over 30 input parameters and considers many important technical noise sources and noise suppression techniques to derive a realistic position noise budget. It optimizes free parameters automatically and generates a detailed report on all individual noise contributions. Thus one can easily explore the entire parameter space and design a realistic gravitational wave observatory. In this document we describe the different parameters, present all underlying calculations, and compare the final observatory's sensitivity with astrophysical sources of gravitational waves. We use as an example parameters currently assumed to be likely applied to a space mission proposed to be launched in 2034 by the European Space Agency. The web application itself is publicly available on the Internet at http://spacegravity.org/designer. Future versions of the web application will incorporate the frequency dependence of different noise sources and include a more detailed model of the observatory's residual acceleration noise.

Solderjet bumping technique used to manufacture a compact and robust green solid-state laser

Solder-joining using metallic solder alloys is an alternative to adhesive bonding. Laser-based soldering processes are especially well suited for the joining of optical components made of fragile and brittle materials such as glasses, ceramics and optical crystals due to a localized and minimized input of thermal energy. The Solderjet Bumping technique is used to assemble a miniaturized laser resonator in order to obtain higher robustness, wider thermal conductivity performance, higher vacuum and radiation compatibility, and better heat and long term stability compared with identical glued devices. The resulting assembled compact and robust green diode-pumped solid-state laser is part of the future Raman Laser Spectrometer designed for the Exomars European Space Agency (ESA) space mission 2018.

Survey of demographic and phenotypic data of local pig breeds of Treasure Project

Local genetic resources represent an important reservoir of biodiversity in the animal sector. Sustainable use of these resources can be an important source of income for farmers taking advantage of the peculiar characteristics of their products. The different European local pig breeds have a different level of knowledge of their characteristics both at demographic and phenotypic level. This information, however, is fundamental to the management of the breeds and represent one of the first steps in a project for the enhancement of production. This paper reports the results of a survey on the demographic and phenotypic characterization of the 20 European local pig breeds involved in the TREASURE* project. The first part of the survey shows, for all populations involved, the available demographic parameters, the structure of the breed (i.e. number of males, females and replacements), the main morphological features, the reproductive information as well as some additional information collected at herd-level (i.e. temperament, holding, mating practices). A second module reports the results related to the origins and development of the breeds, to market characteristics and the presence and distribution of niche products. The survey concludes with a module related to the specific characteristics of each breed and the management of the same in relation to food and the environment. The survey is the starting point of the genetic and productive characterization of the breeds involved that are future actions of the TREASURE project.

Estimation of the ephemerides and gravity fields of the Galilean moons through orbit determination of the JUICE mission

Jupiter and its moons are a complex dynamical system that include several phenomenon like tides interactions, moon's librations and resonances. One of the most interesting characteristics of the Jovian system is the presence of the Laplace resonance, where the orbital periods of Ganymede, Europa and Io maintain a 4:2:1 ratio respectively. It is interesting to study the role of the Laplace Resonance in the dynamic of the system, especially regarding the dissipative nature of the tidal interaction between Jupiter and its closest moon, Io. Numerous theories have been proposed regarding the orbital evolution of the Galilean satellites, but they disagree about the amount of dissipation of the system, therefore about the magnitude and the direction of the evolution of the system, mainly because of the lack of experimental data. The future JUICE space mission is a great opportunity to solve this dispute. JUICE is an ESA (European Space Agency) L-class mission (the largest category of missions in the ESA Cosmic Vision) that, at the beginning of 2030, will be inserted in the Jovian system and that will perform several flybys of the Galilean satellites, with the exception of Io. Subsequently, during the last part of the mission, it will orbit around Ganymede for nine months, with a possible extension of the mission. The data that JUICE will collect during the mission will have an exceptional accuracy, allowing to investigate several aspects of the dynamics the system, especially, the evolution of Laplace Resonance of the Galilean moons and its stability. This thesis will focus on the JUICE mission, in particular in the gravity estimation and orbit reconstruction of the Galilean satellites during the Jovian orbital phase using radiometric data. This is accomplished through an orbit determination technique called multi-arc approach, using the JPL's orbit determination software MONTE (Mission-analysis, Operations and Navigation Tool-kit Environment).

Mars delivery service - development of the electro-mechanical systems of the Sample Fetch Rover for the Mars Sample Return Campaign

This thesis describes the development of the Sample Fetch Rover (SFR), studied for Mars Sample Return (MSR), an international campaign carried out in cooperation between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the European Space Agency (ESA). The focus of this document is the design of the electro-mechanical systems of the rover. After placing this work into the general context of robotic planetary exploration and summarising the state of the art for what concerns Mars rovers, the architecture of the Mars Sample Return Campaign is presented. A complete overview of the current SFR architecture is provided, touching upon all the main subsystems of the spacecraft. For each area, it is discussed what are the design drivers, the chosen solutions and whether they use heritage technology (in particular from the ExoMars Rover) or new developments. This research focuses on two topics of particular interest, due to their relevance for the mission and the novelty of their design: locomotion and sample acquisition, which are discussed in depth. The early SFR locomotion concepts are summarised, covering the initial trade-offs and discarded designs for higher traverse performance. Once a consolidated architecture was reached, the locomotion subsystem was developed further, defining the details of the suspension, actuators, deployment mechanisms and wheels. This technology is presented here in detail, including some key analysis and test results that support the design and demonstrate how it responds to the mission requirements. Another major electro-mechanical system developed as part of this work is the one dedicated to sample tube acquisition. The concept of operations of this machinery was defined to be robust against the unknown conditions that characterise the mission. The design process led to a highly automated robotic system which is described here in its main components: vision system, robotic arm and tube storage.