Improved estimation of Weibull Parameters considering unreliability uncertainties

We propose a linear regression method for estimating Weibull parameters from life tests. The method uses stochastic models of the unreliability at each failure instant. As a result, a heteroscedastic regression problem arises that is solved by weighted least squares minimization. The main feature of our method is an innovative s-normalization of the failure data models, to obtain analytic expressions of centers and weights for the regression. The method has been Monte Carlo contrasted with Benard?s approximation, and Maximum Likelihood Estimation; and it has the highest global scores for its robustness, and performance.

Estimation of modal parameters in structures using multiple time history records

In Operational Modal Analysis of structures we often have multiple time history records of vibrations measured at different time instants. This work presents a procedure for estimating the modal parameters of the structure processing all the records, that is, using all available information to obtain a single estimate of the modal parameters. The method uses Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Expectation Maximization algorithm. Finally, it has been applied to various problems for both simulated and real structures and the results show the advantage of the joint analysis proposed.

A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

Joint statistical analysis of multiple measurement setups for the estimation of vibrational modes

Computing the modal parameters of large structures in Operational Modal Analysis often requires to process data from multiple non simultaneously recorded setups of sensors. These setups share some sensors in common, the so-called reference sensors that are fixed for all the measurements, while the other sensors are moved from one setup to the next. One possibility is to process the setups separately what result in different modal parameter estimates for each setup. Then the reference sensors are used to merge or glue the different parts of the mode shapes to obtain global modes, while the natural frequencies and damping ratios are usually averaged. In this paper we present a state space model that can be used to process all setups at once so the global mode shapes are obtained automatically and subsequently only a value for the natural frequency and damping ratio of each mode is computed. We also present how this model can be estimated using maximum likelihood and the Expectation Maximization algorithm. We apply this technique to real data measured at a footbridge.

Proprioceptive force estimation and control for teleoperation in radioactive environments

A medida que se incrementa la energía de los aceleradores de partículas o iones pesados como el CERN o GSI, de los reactores de fusión como JET o ITER, u otros experimentos científicos, se va haciendo cada vez más imprescindible el uso de técnicas de manipulación remota para la interacción con el entorno sujeto a la radiación. Hasta ahora la tasa de dosis radioactiva en el CERN podía tomar valores cercanos a algunos mSv para tiempos de enfriamiento de horas, que permitían la intervención humana para tareas de mantenimiento. Durante los primeros ensayos con plasma en JET, se alcanzaban valores cercanos a los 200 μSv después de un tiempo de enfriamiento de 4 meses y ya se hacía extensivo el uso de técnicas de manipulación remota. Hay una clara tendencia al incremento de los niveles de radioactividad en el futuro en este tipo de instalaciones. Un claro ejemplo es ITER, donde se esperan valores de 450 Sv/h en el centro del toroide a los 11 días de enfriamiento o los nuevos niveles energéticos del CERN que harán necesario una apuesta por niveles de mantenimiento remotos. En estas circunstancias se enmarca esta tesis, que estudia un sistema de control bilateral basado en fuerza-posición, tratando de evitar el uso de sensores de fuerza/par, cuyo contenido electrónico los hace especialmente sensitivos en estos ambientes. El contenido de este trabajo se centra en la teleoperación de robots industriales, que debido a su reconocida solvencia y facilidad para ser adaptados a estos entornos, unido al bajo coste y alta disponibilidad, les convierte en una alternativa interesante para tareas de manipulación remota frente a costosas soluciones a medida. En primer lugar se considera el problema cinemático de teleoperación maestro-esclavo de cinemática disimilar y se desarrolla un método general para la solución del problema en el que se incluye el uso de fuerzas asistivas para guiar al operador. A continuación se explican con detalle los experimentos realizados con un robot ABB y que muestran las dificultades encontradas y recomendaciones para solventarlas. Se concluye el estudio cinemático con un método para el encaje de espacios de trabajo entre maestro y esclavo disimilares. Posteriormente se mira hacia la dinámica, estudiándose el modelado de robots con vistas a obtener un método que permita estimar las fuerzas externas que actúan sobre los mismos. Durante la caracterización del modelo dinámico, se realizan varios ensayos para tratar de encontrar un compromiso entre complejidad de cálculo y error de estimación. También se dan las claves para modelar y caracterizar robots con estructura en forma de paralelogramo y se presenta la arquitectura de control deseada. Una vez obtenido el modelo completo del esclavo, se investigan diferentes alternativas que permitan una estimación de fuerzas externas en tiempo real, minimizando las derivadas de la posición para minimizar el ruido. Se comienza utilizando observadores clásicos del estado para ir evolucionando hasta llegar al desarrollo de un observador de tipo Luenberger-Sliding cuya implementación es relativamente sencilla y sus resultados contundentes. También se analiza el uso del observador propuesto durante un control bilateral simulado en el que se compara la realimentación de fuerzas obtenida con las técnicas clásicas basadas en error de posición frente a un control basado en fuerza-posición donde la fuerza es estimada y no medida. Se comprueba como la solución propuesta da resultados comparables con las arquitecturas clásicas y sin embargo introduce una alternativa para la teleoperación de robots industriales cuya teleoperación en entornos radioactivos sería imposible de otra manera. Finalmente se analizan los problemas derivados de la aplicación práctica de la teleoperación en los escenarios mencionados anteriormente. Debido a las condiciones prohibitivas para todo equipo electrónico, los sistemas de control se deben colocar a gran distancia de los manipuladores, dando lugar a longitudes de cable de centenares de metros. En estas condiciones se crean sobretensiones en controladores basados en PWM que pueden ser destructivas para el sistema formado por control, cableado y actuador, y por tanto, han de ser eliminadas. En este trabajo se propone una solución basada en un filtro LC comercial y se prueba de forma extensiva que su inclusión no produce efectos negativos sobre el control del actuador. ABSTRACT As the energy on the particle accelerators or heavy ion accelerators such as CERN or GSI, fusion reactors such as JET or ITER, or other scientific experiments is increased, it is becoming increasingly necessary to use remote handling techniques to interact with the remote and radioactive environment. So far, the dose rate at CERN could present values near several mSv for cooling times on the range of hours, which allowed human intervention for maintenance tasks. At JET, they measured values close to 200 μSv after a cooling time of 4 months and since then, the remote handling techniques became usual. There is a clear tendency to increase the radiation levels in the future. A clear example is ITER, where values of 450 Sv/h are expected in the centre of the torus after 11 days of cooling. Also, the new energetic levels of CERN are expected to lead to a more advanced remote handling means. In these circumstances this thesis is framed, studying a bilateral control system based on force-position, trying to avoid the use of force/torque sensors, whose electronic content makes them very sensitive in these environments. The contents of this work are focused on teleoperating industrial robots, which due its well-known reliability, easiness to be adapted to these environments, cost-effectiveness and high availability, are considered as an interesting alternative to expensive custom-made solutions for remote handling tasks. Firstly, the kinematic problem of teloperating master and slave with dissimilar kinematics is analysed and a new general approach for solving this issue is presented. The solution includes using assistive forces in order to guide the human operator. Coming up next, I explain with detail the experiments accomplished with an ABB robot that show the difficulties encountered and the proposed solutions. This section is concluded with a method to match the master’s and slave’s workspaces when they present dissimilar kinematics. Later on, the research studies the dynamics, with special focus on robot modelling with the purpose of obtaining a method that allows to estimate external forces acting on them. During the characterisation of the model’s parameters, a set of tests are performed in order to get to a compromise between computational complexity and estimation error. Key points for modelling and characterising robots with a parallelogram structure are also given, and the desired control architecture is presented. Once a complete model of the slave is obtained, different alternatives for external force estimation are review to be able to predict forces in real time, minimizing the position differentiation to minimize the estimation noise. The research starts by implementing classic state observers and then it evolves towards the use of Luenberger- Sliding observers whose implementation is relatively easy and the results are convincing. I also analyse the use of proposed observer during a simulated bilateral control on which the force feedback obtained with the classic techniques based on the position error is compared versus a control architecture based on force-position, where the force is estimated instead of measured. I t is checked how the proposed solution gives results comparable with the classical techniques and however introduces an alternative method for teleoperating industrial robots whose teleoperation in radioactive environments would have been impossible in a different way. Finally, the problems originated by the practical application of teleoperation in the before mentioned scenarios are analysed. Due the prohibitive conditions for every electronic equipment, the control systems should be placed far from the manipulators. This provokes that the power cables that fed the slaves devices can present lengths of hundreds of meters. In these circumstances, overvoltage waves are developed when implementing drives based on PWM technique. The occurrence of overvoltage is very dangerous for the system composed by drive, wiring and actuator, and has to be eliminated. During this work, a solution based on commercial LC filters is proposed and it is extensively proved that its inclusion does not introduce adverse effects into the actuator’s control.

A stochastic approximation algorithm with Markov chain Monte-Carlo method for incomplete data estimation problems

We propose a general procedure for solving incomplete data estimation problems. The procedure can be used to find the maximum likelihood estimate or to solve estimating equations in difficult cases such as estimation with the censored or truncated regression model, the nonlinear structural measurement error model, and the random effects model. The procedure is based on the general principle of stochastic approximation and the Markov chain Monte-Carlo method. Applying the theory on adaptive algorithms, we derive conditions under which the proposed procedure converges. Simulation studies also indicate that the proposed procedure consistently converges to the maximum likelihood estimate for the structural measurement error logistic regression model.

A maximum likelihood algorithm for genome mapping of cytogenetic loci from meiotic configuration data.

Frequencies of meiotic configurations in cytogenetic stocks are dependent on chiasma frequencies in segments defined by centromeres, breakpoints, and telomeres. The expectation maximization algorithm is proposed as a general method to perform maximum likelihood estimations of the chiasma frequencies in the intervals between such locations. The estimates can be translated via mapping functions into genetic maps of cytogenetic landmarks. One set of observational data was analyzed to exemplify application of these methods, results of which were largely concordant with other comparable data. The method was also tested by Monte Carlo simulation of frequencies of meiotic configurations from a monotelodisomic translocation heterozygote, assuming six different sample sizes. The estimate averages were always close to the values given initially to the parameters. The maximum likelihood estimation procedures can be extended readily to other kinds of cytogenetic stocks and allow the pooling of diverse cytogenetic data to collectively estimate lengths of segments, arms, and chromosomes.