Global runoff routing with the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system

A global river routing scheme coupled to the ECMWF land surface model is implemented and tested within the framework of the Global Soil Wetness Project II, to evaluate the feasibility of modelling global river runoff at a daily time scale. The exercise is designed to provide benchmark river runoff predictions needed to verify the land surface model. Ten years of daily runoff produced by the HTESSEL land surface scheme is input into the TRIP2 river routing scheme in order to generate daily river runoff. These are then compared to river runoff observations from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in order to evaluate the potential and the limitations. A notable source of inaccuracy is bias between observed and modelled discharges which is not primarily due to the modelling system but instead of to the forcing and quality of observations and seems uncorrelated to the river catchment size. A global sensitivity analysis and Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) uncertainty analysis are applied to the global routing model. The ground water delay parameter is identified as being the most sensitive calibration parameter. Significant uncertainties are found in results, and those due to parameterisation of the routing model are quantified. The difficulty involved in parameterising global river discharge models is discussed. Detailed river runoff simulations are shown for the river Danube, which match well observed river runoff in upstream river transects. Results show that although there are errors in runoff predictions, model results are encouraging and certainly indicative of useful runoff predictions, particularly for the purpose of verifying the land surface scheme hydrologicly. Potential of this modelling system on future applications such as river runoff forecasting and climate impact studies is highlighted. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.

A semi-distributed ntegrated itrogen model for multiple source assessment in tchments (INCA): Part I — model structure and process equations

A new model has been developed for assessing multiple sources of nitrogen in catchments. The model (INCA) is process based and uses reaction kinetic equations to simulate the principal mechanisms operating. The model allows for plant uptake, surface and sub-surface pathways and can simulate up to six land uses simultaneously. The model can be applied to catchment as a semi-distributed simulation and has an inbuilt multi-reach structure for river systems. Sources of nitrogen can be from atmospheric deposition, from the terrestrial environment (e.g. agriculture, leakage from forest systems etc.), from urban areas or from direct discharges via sewage or intensive farm units. The model is a daily simulation model and can provide information in the form of time series at key sites, or as profiles down river systems or as statistical distributions. The process model is described and in a companion paper the model is applied to the River Tywi catchment in South Wales and the Great Ouse in Bedfordshire.

The water quality of the River Enborne, UK: observations from high-frequency Monitoring in a rural, lowland river system

This paper reports the results of a 2-year study of water quality in the River Enborne, a rural river in lowland England. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus species and other chemical determinands were monitored both at high-frequency (hourly), using automated in situ instrumentation, and by manual weekly sampling and laboratory analysis. The catchment land use is largely agricultural, with a population density of 123 persons km−2. The river water is largely derived from calcareous groundwater, and there are high nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations. Agricultural fertiliser is the dominant source of annual loads of both nitrogen and phosphorus. However, the data show that sewage effluent discharges have a disproportionate effect on the river nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics. At least 38% of the catchment population use septic tank systems, but the effects are hard to quantify as only 6% are officially registered, and the characteristics of the others are unknown. Only 4% of the phosphorus input and 9% of the nitrogen input is exported from the catchment by the river, highlighting the importance of catchment process understanding in predicting nutrient concentrations. High-frequency monitoring will be a key to developing this vital process understanding.

The catastrophic flash-flood event of 8–9 September 2002 in the Gard region, France: a first case study for the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory

The Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory (OHM-CV) is a research initiative aimed at improving the understanding and modeling of the Mediterranean intense rain events that frequently result in devastating flash floods in southern France. A primary objective is to bring together the skills of meteorologists and hydrologists, modelers and instrumentalists, researchers and practitioners, to cope with these rather unpredictable events. In line with previously published flash-flood monographs, the present paper aims at documenting the 8–9 September 2002 catastrophic event, which resulted in 24 casualties and an economic damage evaluated at 1.2 billion euros (i.e., about 1 billion U.S. dollars) in the Gard region, France. A description of the synoptic meteorological situation is first given and shows that no particular precursor indicated the imminence of such an extreme event. Then, radar and rain gauge analyses are used to assess the magnitude of the rain event, which was particularly remarkable for its spatial extent with rain amounts greater than 200 mm in 24 h over 5500 km2. The maximum values of 600–700 mm observed locally are among the highest daily records in the region. The preliminary results of the postevent hydrological investigation show that the hydrologic response of the upstream watersheds of the Gard and Vidourle Rivers is consistent with the marked space–time structure of the rain event. It is noteworthy that peak specific discharges were very high over most of the affected areas (5–10 m3 s−1 km−2) and reached locally extraordinary values of more than 20 m3 s−1 km−2. A preliminary analysis indicates contrasting hydrological behaviors that seem to be related to geomorphological factors, notably the influence of karst in part of the region. An overview of the ongoing meteorological and hydrological research projects devoted to this case study within the OHM-CV is finally presented.

Nonpsychotropic plant cannabinoids, cannabidivarin (CBDV) and cannabidiol (CBD), activate and desensitize transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1) channels in vitro: potential for the treatment of neuronal hyperexcitability

Epilepsy is the most common neurological disorder, with over 50 million people worldwide affected. Recent evidence suggests that the transient receptor potential cation channel subfamily V member 1 (TRPV1) may contribute to the onset and progression of some forms of epilepsy. Since the two nonpsychotropic cannabinoids cannabidivarin (CBDV) and cannabidiol (CBD) exert anticonvulsant activity in vivo and produce TRPV1-mediated intracellular calcium elevation in vitro, we evaluated the effects of these two compounds on TRPV1 channel activation and desensitization and in an in vitro model of epileptiform activity. Patch clamp analysis in transfected HEK293 cells demonstrated that CBD and CBDV dose-dependently activate and rapidly desensitize TRPV1, as well as TRP channels of subfamily V type 2 (TRPV2) and subfamily A type 1 (TRPA1). TRPV1 and TRPV2 transcripts were shown to be expressed in rat hippocampal tissue. When tested on epileptiform neuronal spike activity in hippocampal brain slices exposed to a Mg2+-free solution using multielectrode arrays (MEAs), CBDV reduced both epileptiform burst amplitude and duration. The prototypical TRPV1 agonist, capsaicin, produced similar, although not identical effects. Capsaicin, but not CBDV, effects on burst amplitude were reversed by IRTX, a selective TRPV1 antagonist. These data suggest that CBDV antiepileptiform effects in the Mg2+-free model are not uniquely mediated via activation of TRPV1. However, TRPV1 was strongly phosphorylated (and hence likely sensitized) in Mg2+-free solution-treated hippocampal tissue, and both capsaicin and CBDV caused TRPV1 dephosphorylation, consistent with TRPV1 desensitization. We propose that CBDV effects on TRP channels should be studied further in different in vitro and in vivo models of epilepsy.

ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set

ERA-Interim/Land is a global land surface reanalysis data set covering the period 1979–2010. It describes the evolution of soil moisture, soil temperature and snowpack. ERA-Interim/Land is the result of a single 32-year simulation with the latest ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) land surface model driven by meteorological forcing from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis and precipitation adjustments based on monthly GPCP v2.1 (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The horizontal resolution is about 80 km and the time frequency is 3-hourly. ERA-Interim/Land includes a number of parameterization improvements in the land surface scheme with respect to the original ERA-Interim data set, which makes it more suitable for climate studies involving land water resources. The quality of ERA-Interim/Land is assessed by comparing with ground-based and remote sensing observations. In particular, estimates of soil moisture, snow depth, surface albedo, turbulent latent and sensible fluxes, and river discharges are verified against a large number of site measurements. ERA-Interim/Land provides a global integrated and coherent estimate of soil moisture and snow water equivalent, which can also be used for the initialization of numerical weather prediction and climate models.

High-frequency water quality monitoring in an urban catchment: hydrochemical dynamics, primary production and implications for the Water Framework Directive

This paper describes the hydrochemistry of a lowland, urbanised river-system, The Cut in England, using in situ sub-daily sampling. The Cut receives effluent discharges from four major sewage treatment works serving around 190,000 people. These discharges consist largely of treated water, originally abstracted from the River Thames and returned via the water supply network, substantially increasing the natural flow. The hourly water quality data were supplemented by weekly manual sampling with laboratory analysis to check the hourly data and measure further determinands. Mean phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were very high, breaching standards set by EU legislation. Though 56% of the catchment area is agricultural, the hydrochemical dynamics were significantly impacted by effluent discharges which accounted for approximately 50% of the annual P catchment input loads and, on average, 59% of river flow at the monitoring point. Diurnal dissolved oxygen data demonstrated high in-stream productivity. From a comparison of high frequency and conventional monitoring data, it is inferred that much of the primary production was dominated by benthic algae, largely diatoms. Despite the high productivity and nutrient concentrations, the river water did not become anoxic and major phytoplankton blooms were not observed. The strong diurnal and annual variation observed showed that assessments of water quality made under the Water Framework Directive (WFD) are sensitive to the time and season of sampling. It is recommended that specific sampling time windows be specified for each determinand, and that WFD targets should be applied in combination to help identify periods of greatest ecological risk. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Sediment-contact fish embryo toxicity assay with Danio rerio to assess particle-bound pollutants in the Tiete River Basin (Sao Paulo, Brazil)

The Tiete River and its tributary Pinheiros River receive a highly complex organic and inorganic pollutants load from sanitary sewage and industrial sources, as well as agricultural and agroindustrial activities. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the embryotoxic and teratogenic effects of sediments from selected locations in the Tiete River Basin by means of the sediment contact embryo toxicity assay with Danio rerio, in order to provide a comprehensive and realistic insight into the bioavailable hazard potential of these sediment samples. Lethal and sub-lethal effects were recorded, and high embryo toxicity could be found in the samples not only in the vicinity of the megacity Sao Paulo (Billings reservoir and Pinheiros River samples), but also downstream (in the reservoirs Barra Bonita, Promissao and Tres Irmaos). Results confirm that most toxicity is due to the discharges of the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo. However, they also indicate additional sources of pollutants along the river course, probably from industrial, agricultural and agroindustrial residues, which contribute to the degradation of each area. The sediment contact fish embryo test showed to be powerful tool to detect embryo toxicity in sediments, not only by being a sensitive method, but also for taking into account bioavailability. This test provides an ecological highly realistic and relevant exposure scenario, and should therefore be added in ecotoxicological sediment quality assessments. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased Expression of GluR2-flip in the Hippocampus of the Wistar Audiogenic Rat Strain After Acute and Kindled Seizures

The Wistar Audiogenic Rat (WAR) is an epileptic-prone strain developed by genetic selection from a Wistar progenitor based on the pattern of behavioral response to sound stimulation. Chronic acoustic stimulation protocols of WARs (audiogenic kindling) generate limbic epileptogenesis, confirmed by ictal semiology, amygdale, and hippocampal EEG, accompanied by hippocampal and amygdala cell loss, as well as neurogenesis in the dentate gyrus (DG). In an effort to identify genes involved in molecular mechanisms underlying epileptic process, we used suppression-subtractive hybridization to construct normalized cDNA library enriched for transcripts expressed in the hippocampus of WARs. The most represented gene among the 133 clones sequenced was the ionotropic glutamate receptor subunit II (GluR2), a member of the a-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazoleopropionic acid (AMPA) receptor. Although semiquantitative RT-PCR analysis shows that the hippocampal levels of the GluR2 subunits do not differ between naive WARs and their Wistar counterparts, we observed that the expression of the transcript encoding the splice-variant GluR2-flip is increased in the hippocampus of WARs submitted to both acute and kindled audiogenic seizures. Moreover, using in situ hybridization, we verified upregulation of GluR2-flip mainly in the CA1 region, among the hippocampal subfields of audiogenic kindled WARs. Our findings on differential upregulation of GluR2-flip isoform in the hippocampus of WARs displaying audiogenic seizures is original and agree with and extend previous immunohistochemical for GluR2 data obtained in the Chinese P77PMC audiogenic rat strain, reinforcing the association of limbic AMPA alterations with epileptic seizures. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Identification of geodesic chirping Alfven modes and q-factor estimation in hot core tokamak plasmas in ASDEX Upgrade

Alfven eigenmodes (AE) driven by ion cyclotron resonance heating are usually registered by different diagnostic channels in the hot core plasmas of large tokamaks like JET and ASDEX Upgrade. These AE appear very near to the extremum points of Alfven wave continuum, which is modified by the geodesic effect due to poloidal mode coupling. It is shown that the AE spectrum may be explored as the magnetic spectroscopy (like Alfven cascades by Sharapov et al 2001 Phys. Lett. A 289 127) to determine the q-factor minimum and geodesic frequency at the magnetic axis in standard sawtoothed discharges without reversed shear.

Temporal behaviour of toroidal rotation velocity in the TCABR tokamak

A new method for determining the temporal evolution of plasma rotation is reported in this work. The method is based upon the detection of two different portions of the spectral profile of a plasma impurity line, using a monochromator with two photomultipliers installed at the exit slits. The plasma rotation velocity is determined by the ratio of the two detected signals. The measured toroidal rotation velocities of C III (4647.4 angstrom) and C VI (5290.6 angstrom), at different radial positions in TCABR discharges, show good agreement, within experimental uncertainty, with previous results (Severo et al 2003 Nucl. Fusion 43 1047). In particular, they confirm that the plasma core rotates in the direction opposite to the plasma current, while near the plasma edge (r/a > 0.9) the rotation is in the same direction. This technique was also used to investigate the dependence of toroidal rotation on the poloidal position of gas puffing. The results show that there is no dependence for the plasma core, while for plasma edge (r/a > 0.9) some dependence is observed.

Anisotropy of thermal stresses in confined dusty plasmas

Anisotropy of thermal stresses in confined dusty plasmas is considered. It is shown that in a multi-component low-temperature plasma containing electrons, ions and dust, the complicated dependence of the ion viscosity on ion temperature gradients leads to a plasma equilibrium state with anisotropic pressure. This pressure anisotropy can be of the order of the ion pressure in some limiting cases, in which the ion Larmor radius or the ion mean free path are of the order of the characteristic length of the plasma nonuniformity. For a sufficiently large dust number density, they contribute to the plasma pressure anisotropy and to its spatial dependence. Currently, it is not yet clear whether this equilibrium state is stable or not. Under these conditions, some convective plasma flows can arise in confinement devices. Therefore, this question needs special consideration.

Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.