INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

INVESTIGATION OF STRATEGIES TO PROMOTE EFFECTIVE TEACHER PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCES IN EARTH SCIENCE

This dissertation serves as a call to geoscientists to share responsibility with K-12 educators for increasing Earth science literacy. When partnerships are created among K-12 educators and geoscientists, the synergy created can promote Earth science literacy in students, teachers, and the broader community. The research described here resulted in development of tools that can support effective professional development for teachers. One tool is used during the planning stages to structure a professional development program, another set of tools supports measurement of the effectiveness of a development program, and the third tool supports sustainability of professional development programs. The Michigan Teacher Excellence Program (MiTEP), a Math/Science Partnership project funded by the National Science Foundation, served as the test bed for developing and testing these tools. The first tool, the planning tool, is the Earth Science Literacy Principles (ESLP). The ESLP served as a planning tool for the two-week summer field courses as part of the MiTEP program. The ESLP, published in 2009, clearly describe what an Earth science literate person should know. The ESLP consists of nine big ideas and their supporting fundamental concepts. Using the ESLP for planning a professional development program assisted both instructors and teacher-participants focus on important concepts throughout the professional development activity. The measurement tools were developed to measure change in teachers’ Earth science content-area knowledge and perceptions related to teaching and learning that result from participating in a professional development program. The first measurement tool, the Earth System Concept Inventory (ESCI), directly measures content-area knowledge through a succession of multiple-choice questions that are aligned with the content of the professional development experience. The second measurement, an exit survey, collects qualitative data from teachers regarding their impression of the professional development. Both the ESCI and the exit survey were tested for validity and reliability. Lesson study is discussed here as a strategy for sustaining professional development in a school or a district after the end of a professional development activity. Lesson study, as described here, was offered as a formal course. Teachers engaged in lesson study worked collaboratively to design and test lessons that improve the teachers’ classroom practices. Data regarding the impact of the lesson study activity were acquired through surveys, written documents, and group interviews. The data are interpreted to indicate that the lesson study process improved teacher quality and classroom practices. In the case described here, the lesson study process was adopted by the teachers’ district and currently serves as part of the district’s work in Professional Learning Communities, resulting in ongoing professional development throughout the district.

Rapid diagnostic tests for the home-based management of malaria, in a high-transmission area

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are sometimes recommended to improve the home-based management of malaria. The accuracy of an RDT for the detection of clinical malaria and the presence of malarial parasites has recently been evaluated in a high-transmission area of southern Mali. During the same study, the cost-effectiveness of a 'test-and-treat' strategy for the home-based management of malaria (based on an artemisinin-combination therapy) was compared with that of a 'treat-all' strategy. Overall, 301 patients, of all ages, each of whom had been considered a presumptive case of uncomplicated malaria by a village healthworker, were checked with a commercial RDT (Paracheck-Pf). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of this test, compared with the results of microscopy and two different definitions of clinical malaria, were then determined. The RDT was found to be 82.9% sensitive (with a 95% confidence interval of 78.0%-87.1%) and 78.9% (63.9%-89.7%) specific compared with the detection of parasites by microscopy. In the detection of clinical malaria, it was 95.2% (91.3%-97.6%) sensitive and 57.4% (48.2%-66.2%) specific compared with a general practitioner's diagnosis of the disease, and 100.0% (94.5%-100.0%) sensitive but only 30.2% (24.8%-36.2%) specific when compared against the fulfillment of the World Health Organization's (2003) research criteria for uncomplicated malaria. Among children aged 0-5 years, the cost of the 'test-and-treat' strategy, per episode, was about twice that of the 'treat-all' (U.S.$1.0. v. U.S.$0.5). In older subjects, however, the two strategies were equally costly (approximately U.S.$2/episode). In conclusion, for children aged 0-5 years in a high-transmission area of sub-Saharan Africa, use of the RDT was not cost-effective compared with the presumptive treatment of malaria with an ACT. In older patients, use of the RDT did not reduce costs. The question remains whether either of the strategies investigated can be made affordable for the affected population.

Impulses for an Effective and Modern Data Protection System

A substantial reform of data protection law is on the agenda of the European Commission as it is widely agreed that data protection law is faced by lots of challenges, due to fundamental technical and social changes or even revolutions. Therefore, the authors have issued draft new provisions on data protection law that would work in both Germany and Europe. The draft is intended to provide a new approach and deal with the consequences of such an approach. This article contains some key theses on the main legislatory changes that appear both necessary and adequate.

Clinical outcomes of patients with low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis and either preserved or reduced ejection fraction undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

AIMS Our aim was to evaluate the invasive haemodynamic indices of high-risk symptomatic patients presenting with 'paradoxical' low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis (AS) (PLF-LG) and low-flow, low-gradient severe AS (LEF-LG) and to compare clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) among these challenging AS subgroups. METHODS AND RESULTS Of 534 symptomatic patients undergoing TAVI, 385 had a full pre-procedural right and left heart catheterization. A total of 208 patients had high-gradient severe AS [HGAS; mean gradient (MG) ≥40 mmHg], 85 had PLF-LG [MG ≤ 40 mmHg, indexed aortic valve area [iAVA] ≤0.6 cm(2) m(-2), stroke volume index ≤35 mL/m(2), ejection fraction (EF) ≥50%], and 61 had LEF-LG (MG ≤ 40 mmHg, iAVA ≤0.6 cm(2) m(-2), EF ≤40%). Compared with HGAS, PLF-LG and LEF-LG had higher systemic vascular resistances (HGAS: 1912 ± 654 vs. PLF-LG 2006 ± 586 vs. LEF-LG 2216 ± 765 dyne s m(-5), P = 0.007) but lower valvulo-arterial impedances (HGAS: 7.8 ± 2.7 vs. PLF-LG 6.9 ± 1.9 vs. LEF-LG 7.7 ± 2.5 mmHg mL(-1) m(-2), P = 0.027). At 30 days, no differences in cardiac death (6.5 vs. 4.9 vs. 6.6%, P = 0.90) or death (8.4 vs. 6.1 vs. 6.6%, P = 0.88) were observed among HGAS, PLF-LG, and LEF-LG groups, respectively. At 1 year, New York Heart Association functional improvement occurred in most surviving patients (HGAS: 69.2% vs. PLF-LG 71.7% vs. LEF-LG 89.3%, P = 0.09) and no significant differences in overall mortality were observed (17.6 vs. 20.5 vs. 24.5%, P = 0.67). Compared with HGAS, LEF-LG had a higher 1 year cardiac mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 2.45, 95% confidence interval 1.04-5.75, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION TAVI in PLF-LG or LEF-LG patients is associated with overall mortality rates comparable with HGAS patients and all groups profit symptomatically to a similar extent.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

Assessing the effectiveness of a long-standing rocky intertidal protected area and its contribution to the regional conservation of species, habitats and assemblages

1. The acceptance of reserves as a useful management strategy relies on evidence of their effectiveness in preserving stocks of harvested species and conserving biodiversity. A history of ad hoc decisions in terrestrial and marine protected area planning has meant that many of these areas are contributing inefficiently to conservation goals. The conservation value of existing protected areas should be assessed when planning the placement of additional areas in a reserve network. 2. This study tested (1) the effectiveness of protection for intertidal molluscs of a marine reserve (Bouddi Marine Extension, NSW, Australia) established in 1971, and (2) the contribution of the protected area to the conservation of regional species, assemblages, and habitats. 3. The shell length and population density of one harvested (Cellana tramoserica), and three non-harvested species (Bembicium nanum, Morula marginalba, Nerita atramentosa) of intertidal molluscs were examined in the protected area and two reference locations over two seasons. 4. The heavily collected limpet C. tramoserica was significantly larger in the protected area and was the only species to exhibit a significant difference. No species significantly differed in population density between the protected area and reference locations. 5. Temporally replicated surveys of macro-molluscs at 21 locations over 75km of coastline identified that the existing protected area included 50% of species, two of five assemblage types and 19 of 20 intertidal rocky shore habitats surveyed in the study region. Reservation of a further three rocky reefs would protect a large proportion of species (71%), a representative of each assemblage and all habitat types. 6. Despite originally being selected in the absence of information on regional biodiversity, the protected area is today an effective starting point for expansion to a regional network of intertidal protected areas.

Effect of pressure-controlled intermittent coronary sinus occlusion (PICSO) on myocardial ischaemia and reperfusion in a closed-chest porcine model

AIMS To investigate a pressure-controlled intermittent coronary sinus occlusion (PICSO) system in an ischaemia/reperfusion model. METHODS AND RESULTS We randomly assigned 18 pigs subjected to 60 minutes ischaemia by left anterior descending (LAD) coronary artery balloon occlusion to PICSO (n=12, groups A and B) or to controls (n=6, group C). PICSO started 10 minutes before (group A), or 10 minutes after (group B) reperfusion and was maintained for 180 minutes. A continuous drop of distal LAD pressure was observed in group C. At 180 minutes of reperfusion, LAD diastolic pressure was significantly lower in group C compared to groups A and B (p=0.02). LAD mean pressure was significantly less than the systemic arterial mean pressure in group C (p=0.02), and the diastolic flow slope was flat, compared to groups A and B (p=0.03). IgG and IgM antibody deposition was significantly higher in ischaemic compared to non-ischaemic tissue in group C (p<0.05). Significantly more haemorrhagic lesions were seen in the ischaemic myocardium of group C, compared to groups A and B (p=0.002). The necrotic area differed non-significantly among groups. CONCLUSIONS PICSO was safe and effective in improving coronary perfusion pressure and reducing antibody deposition consistent with reduced microvascular obstruction and ischaemia/reperfusion injury.

Botulinum toxin A and B raise blood flow and increase survival of critically ischemic skin flaps

BACKGROUND Botulinum toxin (BTX) A and B are commonly used for aesthetic indications and in neuromuscular disorders. New concepts seek to prove efficacy of BTX for critical tissue perfusion. Our aim was to evaluate BTX A and B in a mouse model of critical flap ischemia for preoperative and intraoperative application. METHODS BTX A and B were applied on the vascular pedicle of an axial pattern flap in mice preoperatively or intraoperatively. Blood flow, tissue oxygenation, tissue metabolism, flap necrosis rate, apoptosis assay, and RhoA and eNOS expression were endpoints. RESULTS Blood-flow measurements 1 d after the flap operation revealed a significant reduction to 53% in the control group, while flow was maintained or increased in all BTX groups (103%-129%). Over 5 d all BTX groups showed significant increase in blood flow to 166-187% (P < 0.01). Microdialysis revealed an increase of glucose and reduced lactate/pyruvate ratio and glycerol levels in the flap tissue of all BTX groups. This resulted in significantly improved tissue survival in all BTX groups compared with the control group (62% ± 10%; all P < 0.01): BTX A preconditioning (84% ± 5%), BTX A application intraoperatively (88% ± 4%), BTX B preconditioning (91% ± 4%), and intraoperative BTX B treatment (92% ± 5%). This was confirmed by TUNEL assay. Immunofluorescence demonstrated RhoA and eNOS expression in BTX groups. All BTX applications were similarly effective, despite pharmacologic dissimilarities and different timing. CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, we were able to show on a vascular, tissue, cell, and molecular level that BTX injection to the feeding arteries supports flap survival through ameliorated blood flow and oxygen delivery.

Flux and resident injection in gaseous advection experiments

The occurrence of gaseous pollutants in soils has stimulated many experimental activities, including forced ventilation in the field as well as laboratory transport experiments with gases. The dispersion coefficient in advective-dispersive gas phase transport is often dominated by molecular diffusion, which leads to a large overall dispersivity gamma. Under such conditions it is important to distinguish between flux and resident modes of solute injection and detection. The influence of the inlet type oil the macroscopic injection mode was tested in two series of column experiments with gases at different mean flow velocities nu. First we compared infinite resident and flux injections, and second, semi-infinite resident and flux injections. It is shown that the macroscopically apparent injection condition depends on the geometry of the inlet section. A reduction of the cross-sectional area of the inlet relative to that of the column is very effective in excluding the diffusive solute input, thus allowing us to use the solutions for a flux Injection also at rather low mean flow velocities nu. If the whole cross section of a column is exposed to a large reservoir like that of ambient air, a semi-infinite resident injection is established, which can be distinguished from a flux injection even at relatively high velocities nu, depending on the mechanical dispersivity of the porous medium.

Combined effect of heterogeneity, anisotropy and saturation on steady state flow and transport: Structure recognition and numerical simulation

1 Natural soil profiles may be interpreted as an arrangement of parts which are characterized by properties like hydraulic conductivity and water retention function. These parts form a complicated structure. Characterizing the soil structure is fundamental in subsurface hydrology because it has a crucial influence on flow and transport and defines the patterns of many ecological processes. We applied an image analysis method for recognition and classification of visual soil attributes in order to model flow and transport through a man-made soil profile. Modeled and measured saturation-dependent effective parameters were compared. We found that characterizing and describing conductivity patterns in soils with sharp conductivity contrasts is feasible. Differently, solving flow and transport on the basis of these conductivity maps is difficult and, in general, requires special care for representation of small-scale processes.

Combined effects of heterogeneity, anisotropy, and saturation on steady state flow and transport: A laboratory sand tank experiment

Field soils show rather different spreading behavior at different water saturations, frequently caused by layering of the soil material. We performed tracer experiments in a laboratory sand tank. Such experiments complement and help comprehension of field investigations. We estimated, by image analysis, the first two moments of small plumes traveling through a two-dimensional, heterogeneous medium with strongly anisotropic correlation structure. Three steady state regimes were analyzed. Two main conclusions were drawn. First, low saturation led to very large heterogeneity and to strong preferential flow. Thus the description of the flow paths and the prediction of the solute arrival times require, in this case, more accurate knowledge about the topological structure. Second, saturation-dependent macroscopic anisotropy is an essential element of transport in unsaturated media. For this reason, small structural soil features should be properly upscaled to give appropriate effective soil parameters to be input in transport models.

Analysis of Pressure Head-Flow Loops of Pulsatile Rotodynamic Blood Pumps

The clinical importance of pulsatility is a recurring topic of debate in mechanical circulatory support. Lack of pulsatility has been identified as a possible factor responsible for adverse events and has also demonstrated a role in myocardial perfusion and cardiac recovery. A commonly used method for restoring pulsatility with rotodynamic blood pumps (RBPs) is to modulate the speed profile, synchronized to the cardiac cycle. This introduces additional parameters that influence the (un)loading of the heart, including the timing (phase shift) between the native cardiac cycle and the pump pulses, and the amplitude of speed modulation. In this study, the impact of these parameters upon the heart-RBP interaction was examined in terms of the pressure head-flow (HQ) diagram. The measurements were conducted using a rotodynamic Deltastream DP2 pump in a validated hybrid mock circulation with baroreflex function. The pump was operated with a sinusoidal speed profile, synchronized to the native cardiac cycle. The simulated ventriculo-aortic cannulation showed that the level of (un)loading and the shape of the HQ loops strongly depend on the phase shift. The HQ loops displayed characteristic shapes depending on the phase shift. Increased contribution of native contraction (increased ventricular stroke work [WS ]) resulted in a broadening of the loops. It was found that the previously described linear relationship between WS and the area of the HQ loop for constant pump speeds becomes a family of linear relationships, whose slope depends on the phase shift.

Is paromomycin an effective and safe treatment against cutaneous leishmaniasis? A meta-analysis of 14 randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: High cost, poor compliance, and systemic toxicity have limited the use of pentavalent antimony compounds (SbV), the treatment of choice for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Paromomycin (PR) has been developed as an alternative to SbV, but existing data are conflicting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, without language restriction, through August 2007, to identify randomized controlled trials that compared the efficacy or safety between PR and placebo or SbV. Primary outcome was clinical cure, defined as complete healing, disappearance, or reepithelialization of all lesions. Data were extracted independently by two investigators, and pooled using a random-effects model. Fourteen trials including 1,221 patients were included. In placebo-controlled trials, topical PR appeared to have therapeutic activity against the old world and new world CL, with increased local reactions, when used with methylbenzethonium chloride (MBCL) compared to when used alone (risk ratio [RR] for clinical cure, 2.58 versus 1.01: RR for local reactions, 1.60 versus 1.07). In SbV-controlled trials, the efficacy of topical PR was not significantly different from that of intralesional SbV in the old world CL (RR, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-1.89), whereas topical PR was inferior to parenteral SbV in treating the new world CL (0.67; 0.54-0.82). No significant difference in efficacy was found between parenteral PR and parenteral SbV in the new world CL (0.88; 0.56-1.38). Systemic side effects were fewer with topical or parenteral PR than parenteral SbV. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Topical PR with MBCL could be a therapeutic alternative to SbV in selected cases of the old world CL. Development of new formulations with better efficacy and tolerability remains to be an area of future research.

Stratigraphic Variation Within Polar Firn Caused by Differential Accumulation and Ice Flow: Interpretation of a 400 Mhz Short-Pulse Radar Profile from West Antarctica

We investigate causes of the stratigraphic variation revealed in a 177 km, 400 MHz short-pulse radar profile of firn from West Antarctica. The profile covers 56 m depth, and its direction was close to those of the ice flow and mean wind. The average, near-surface accumulation rates calculated from the time delays of one radar horizon consistently show minima on leeward slopes and maxima on windward slopes, confirming an earlier study based on stake observations. The stratigraphic variation includes up to 30 m depth variation in individual horizons over tens of km, fold limbs that become progressively steeper with depth, and fold-hinge loci that change direction or propagate down-ice with depth over distances far less than predicted by the ice speeds. We use an accumulation rate model to show how local rate anomalies and the effect of ice speed upon a periodic variation in accumulation rate cause these phenomena, and we reproduce two key features seen in the stratigraphic variations. We conclude that the model provides an explanation of changes in spatial stratigraphy and local measures of accumulation history given the constraints of surface topography, ice and wind velocities, and a general accumulation rate for an area.