An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Saint Vincent and The Grenadines

Water security which is essential to life and livelihood, health and sanitation, is determined not only by the water resource, but also by the quality of water, the ability to store surplus from precipitation and runoff, as well as access to and affordability of supply. All of these measures have financial implications for national budgets. The water sector in the context of the assessment and discussion on the impact of climate change in this paper includes consideration of the existing as well as the projected available water resource and the demand in terms of: quantity and quality of surface and ground water, water supply infrastructure - collection, storage, treatment, distribution, and potential for adaptation. Wastewater management infrastructure is also considered a component of the water sector. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has two distinct hydrological regimes: mainland St Vincent is one of the wetter islands of the eastern Caribbean whereas the Grenadines have a drier climate than St Vincent. Surface water is the primary source of water supply on St Vincent, whereas the Grenadines depend on man-made catchments, rainwater harvesting, wells, and desalination. The island state is considered already water stressed as marked seasonality in rainfall, inadequate supply infrastructure, and institutional capacity constrains water supply. Economic modelling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios. In each of the three scenarios – A2, B2 and BAU Saint Vincent and the Grenadines will have a water gap represented by the difference between the two curves during the forecast period of 2011 and 2050. The amount of water required increases steadily between 2011 and 2050 implying an increasing demand on the country‘s resources as reflected by the fact that the water supply that is available cannot respond adequately to the demand. The Global Water Partnership in its 2005 policy brief suggested that the best way for countries to build the capacity to adapt to climate change will be to improve their ability to cope with today‘s climate variability (GWP, 2005). This suggestion is most applicable for St Vincent and the Grenadines, as the variability being experienced has already placed the island nation under water stress. Strategic priorities should therefore be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Cost benefit analysis was stymied by data availability, but the ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that adaptation measures will be beneficial to the land, people and economy of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines with or without climate change should be adopted.

The tourism sector and the global economic crisis: development implicatins for the Caribbean

Over the past two years the global economy has experienced substantial economic turmoil, resulting in severe economic contraction. While there has been a recent return to growth, this situation has impacted all economic sectors worldwide. In the highly tourism-dependent region of the Caribbean, the impact of the global economic crisis has been most notable on the tourism sector, which, from the early 1990s, became the key driver of economic growth for the region. The eventual emergence of this sector reflects an economic development history which was previously underpinned by the export of agricultural commodities, and subsequently by the adoption of the import substitution industrialization model as promulgated by Arthur Lewis. This was further stimulated by spectacular economic contraction in Caribbean economies during the 1980s as a result of changes in the global terms of trade for commodities, generally low levels of competitiveness for manufactured goods, as well as weak institutional and governance frameworks. Ultimately, many economies began to reflect fiscal and balance of payments constraints. By the end of the 1990s, too, evidence of declining competitiveness even in the tourism sector began to become apparent particularly when evaluated under the framework of the Butler Tourism Area Life- Cycle (TALC) model. The recent economic crisis, therefore, provides an opportunity to reflect on the overall approach to economic development in the Caribbean, and to assess the implications of the region’s response to the crisis. This analysis makes the case for the future development of the sector to be based on two broad strategies. The first is to deepen the integration of the tourism sector into the broader economy through the diversification of the regional tourism product, as well as the enhancement of linkages with other sectors, while the second is to expand the tourism sector into a total service economy through the introduction of new services. Considering linkages, the development of clusters and value chains to support the tourism sector is identified with respect to agriculture and food, handicraft, and furnishings. Among the new services identified are education, wellness, yachting and boating, financial services, and information and communications technologies (ICT). This overall strategy is deemed to be better suited to the macroeconomic realities of the Caribbean, where high labour costs and other structural rigidities require a high-valued specialty tourism product in order to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

Report of the expert group meeting on the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Pertnership Agreement

On 15 October 2008, the European Union (EU) and the CARIFORUM Group of Countries – the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Dominican Republic – assembled in Barbados to commemorate the beginning of a new chapter in their economic relationship by signing the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) after four and a half years of negotiation. In signing the Agreement, a joint declaration was also issued calling for a comprehensive, five-yearly review of the Agreement in order to determine its impact, including the costs and consequences of its implementation. During negotiations between the parties to the Agreement, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean undertook several studies directed at examining the implications of the EPA for the region as well as informing the process for the preparation of an implementation plan for CARIFORUM. The possible gender implications were also considered in collaboration with the United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM).

The United States subprime mortgage crisis and its implications for the Caribbean

The bursting of the property bubble – subprime mortgage crisis – in 2007 in the United States has engendered panic, recession fears and turmoil in the global financial system. Although the United States economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the last quarter of 2007, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous quarter, day by day worsening scenarios emerge, from escalating oil prices, to a depreciating dollar and financial institutions’ bailout by the Federal Reserve. Many economists and policy makers share the view that a subprime-led recession – i.e. two consecutive quarters with negative growth – is inevitable and will be much deeper and longer than the 2001 dot-com downturn. Moreover, the critical situation of the financial system has driven some analysts to argue that should the monetary policy response fails to restore confidence among investors, the outcome would be the worst crisis seen since the Great Depression. This pessimism is not only among specialists. Indeed, in late March 2008 the Consumer Confidence Index in the United States recorded its lowest level since February 1992. A recession in the United States will undoubtedly have an important impact on the world economy, despite the continuous rapid growth experienced by emerging economies, particularly China and India. The purpose of this article is threefold: first, to characterize the current situation in the United States economy; second, to discuss the economic policy responses; and finally, to elaborate on how Caribbean economies may be affected.

Meta-analysis of the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand: public policy implications for Latin America

By means of a meta-analysis, this article sets out to estimate average values for the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand and to analyse the reasons for the variations in the elasticities reported by the literature. The findings show that there is publication bias, that the volatility of elasticity estimates is not due to sampling errors alone, and that there are systematic factors explaining these differences. The income and price elasticities of gasoline demand differ between the short and long run and by region, and the estimation can appropriately include the vehicle fleet and the prices of substitute goods, the data types and the estimation methods used. The presence of a low price elasticity suggests that a fuel tax will be inadequate to control rising consumption in a context of rapid economic growth.

Mangrove sedimentary characteristics and implications for crab Ucides cordatus (Crustacea, Decapoda, Ucididae) distribution in an estuarine area of the Amazonian region

Na zona costeira, sedimentos, água e organismos interagem intensamente. Nas costas equatoriais dominadas por maré os manguezais são abundantes. Estas áreas são conhecidas por sua importância ecológica. No caso dos manguezais da costa atlântica da América do Sul o caranguejo-uçá Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763) se destaca por sua relevância ecológica e econômica, sendo que altas densidades deste organismo são encontradas na zona costeira amazônica. O presente estudo investiga a distribuição de sedimentos nos manguezais de Bragança (costa Amazônica, Brasil) e suas correlações com a vegetação e a distribuição do caranguejo-uçá. Quarenta e sete amostras de sedimento foram avaliadas, assim como caranguejos de 8 destas áreas foram coletados, onde o tipo dominante de vegetação foi também identificado. Os resultados demonstram que os sedimentos superficiais, assim como no extrato 0,8 a 1 m de profundidade, na área são principalmente compostos por silte (59%), incluindo em média 21% de areia e 20% de argila. O tipo de vegetação predominante foi significativamente correlacionado com a abundância e tamanho/peso dos caranguejos. As características sedimentares também foram substancialmente diferentes dependendo da vegetação. Áreas dominadas por Avicennia germinans tiveram mais areia e argila que as áreas dominadas por Rizophora mangle, onde a fração silte prevalece grandemente e os caranguejos eram significativamente maiores e mais abundantes. Os resultados demonstraram que sedimentos, invertebrados bentônicos e vegetação estão intimamente relacionados nos manguezais e devem ser estudados de maneira integrada.

Wildlife Tuberculosis in South African Conservation Areas: Implications and Challenges

Tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium bovis, was first diagnosed in African buffalo in South Africa’s Kruger National Park in 1990. Over the past 15 years the disease has spread northwards leaving only the most northern buffalo herds unaffected. Evidence suggests that 10 other small and large mammalian species, including large predators, are spillover hosts. Wildlife tuberculosis has also been diagnosed in several adjacent private game reserves and in the Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, the third largest game reserve in South Africa. The tuberculosis epidemic has a number of implications, for which the full effect of some might only be seen in the long-term. Potential negative long-term effects on the population dynamics of certain social animal species and the direct threat for the survival of endangered species pose particular problems for wildlife conservationists. On the other hand, the risk of spillover infection to neighboring communal cattle raises concerns about human health at the wildlife–livestock–human interface, not only along the western boundary of Kruger National Park, but also with regards to the joint development of the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Conservation Area with Zimbabwe and Mozambique. From an economic point of view, wildlife tuberculosis has resulted in national and international trade restrictions for affected species. The lack of diagnostic tools for most species and the absence of an effective vaccine make it currently impossible to contain and control this disease within an infected free-ranging ecosystem. Veterinary researchers and policy-makers have recognized the need to intensify research on this disease and the need to develop tools for control, initially targeting buffalo and lion.

Cellulosic Ethanol: The Benifits, Obstacles, and Implications for Nebraska

Abstract Ethanol is a biofuel that has unique capabilities to mitigate global climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously supporting rural economies and decreasing the United States’ dependence on foreign oil. Currently, the state of Nebraska depends on corn ethanol, which may be unsustainable. Cellulosic ethanol is a promising alternative but it is not without its problems, including high production costs and potential environmental damage. This thesis is an attempt to understand the benefits, downfalls, and processes of corn-based and cellulosic ethanol and the potential implications to Nebraska. This research should shed some light on the current obstacles and environmental problems involved with production, as well as evaluate the potential economic benefits to Nebraska, while pointing out issues that should be further researched before implementation.

CC96-396 Productcion Flexibility Contracts: Provisions, Implications and the Participation Decision

The Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-127) was signed into law by President Clinton on April 4, 1996. Most provisions of the new law, including the commodity provisions, will be effective for seven years, 1996-2002. Unlike previous farm bills, provisions relating to commodity supports are grouped together under what is known as the Agricultural Market Transition Act (AMTA) program. Producers of seven commodities: corn, sorghum, barley, oats, wheat, rice and cotton must sign Productive Flexibility Contracts (PFCs) to participate in the AMTA. These seven commodities are referred to as "contract commodities." This publication focuses on the PFCs, beginning with an overview of contract provisions. Potential short- and long-run implications of PFCs are then discussed.

The informal market of education in Egypt: Private tutoring and its implications /// Arbeitspapiere / Institut für Ethnologie und Afrikastudien ; 88

Education is generally perceived as a public good which should be provided by the state. In Egypt, free and equal access to education has been guaranteed to all citizens since President Nasser’s socialist reforms in the 1950s. However, due to high population growth rates and a lack of financial resources, the public education system has been struggling to accommodate rapidly increasing numbers of students. While enrolment rates have risen steadily, the quality of state-provided services has deteriorated. Teachers and students have to cope with high class densities, insufficient facilities, a rigid syllabus and a centralized examination system. Today, teaching is among the lowest-paying occupations in the public sector. One strategy to cope with this situation is the widespread practice of private tutoring, which usually takes place at students’ homes or in commercial tutoring centers. Based on research carried out in Cairo in 2004/05 and 2006, I use an actor-centered approach to analyze the motivations of Egyptian teachers and students for participating in private tutoring and the impact that this practice has on the relationship between teachers and students. Students of all socio-economic backgrounds resort to tutoring in order to succeed in a highly competitive and exam-oriented education system. However, the form and quality of tutoring that can be accessed depends on the financial means of the family. For teachers, tutoring provides a good opportunity not only to supplement their income, but also, in the case of renowned “star teachers”, to improve their professional status and autonomy. On the informal “market of education” that has developed in Egypt during the last decades, the educational responsibilities of the state are increasingly being taken over by private actors, i.e. the process of teaching and learning is dissociated from the direct control of the state and from school as an institution. At the same time, education is turned into a marketable commodity. Despite the government’s efforts to provide free education to all citizens, the quality of social services that can be accessed in Egypt, thus, depends mainly on the financial means of the individual or the family.

Practical implications of aflatoxin contamination in corn

Aflatoxin (AFL) contamination of corn is a serious economic and food security issue. Although a variety of technical solutions for reducing AFL contamination of corn have been proposed, only a few have produced satisfactory results. A successful approach is a biocontrol strategy consisting of using non-flatoxigenic strains of Aspergillus flavus to replace indigenous AFL-producing isolates. The main objective of the present thesis was to investigate the dynamic and contamination of AFL/A. flavus in corn in Northern Italy. The study also investigated the role of the key-pest of corn, the European Corn Borer (ECB), on AFL contamination and dispersal of A. flavus propagules in corn. Finally, the study evaluated the feasibility of bioplastic-based granules entrapping a non-aflatoxigenic A. flavus strain for the biocontrol of this fungus in corn. The 2-year field study demonstrated the efficacy of the bioplastic formulation to reduce AFL contamination in corn. More precisely, although AFL contamination varied among the two years, application of 15 and 30 kg ha-1 of granules reduced AFL contamination to up 60 and 85% in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Microbiological analysis showed that the relative abundance of non-aflatoxigenic soil isolates significantly increased after 1 month from granules application (mid-May) and throughout the corn-growing season. These findings were consistent with data obtained using a bioplastic-based bait specifically developed to selectively isolate Aspergilli from soil and other environmental samples. In addition, field and laboratory evaluations showed that the level of damages produced by ECB larvae were not significantly correlated to A. flavus infestation and AFL contamination. Taking together, these findings demonstrated that AFL contamination of corn in Northern Italy was variable, but above the EU limit for human consumption. First proposed in the USA, this study showed the practical possibility of this formulation to be use for reducing AFL contamination in corn in the EU.

Volunteer-based coral reef monitoring: reliability of data, environmental education and implications for conservation

Coral reefs are the most biodiverse ecosystems of the ocean and they provide notable ecosystem services. Nowadays, they are facing a number of local anthropogenic threats and environmental change is threatening their survivorship on a global scale. Large-scale monitoring is necessary to understand environmental changes and to perform useful conservation measurements. Governmental agencies are often underfunded and are not able of sustain the necessary spatial and temporal large-scale monitoring. To overcome the economic constrains, in some cases scientists can engage volunteers in environmental monitoring. Citizen Science enables the collection and analysis of scientific data at larger spatial and temporal scales than otherwise possible, addressing issues that are otherwise logistically or financially unfeasible. “STE: Scuba Tourism for the Environment” was a volunteer-based Red Sea coral reef biodiversity monitoring program. SCUBA divers and snorkelers were involved in the collection of data for 72 taxa, by completing survey questionnaires after their dives. In my thesis, I evaluated the reliability of the data collected by volunteers, comparing their questionnaires with those completed by professional scientists. Validation trials showed a sufficient level of reliability, indicating that non-specialists performed similarly to conservation volunteer divers on accurate transects. Using the data collected by volunteers, I developed a biodiversity index that revealed spatial trends across surveyed areas. The project results provided important feedbacks to the local authorities on the current health status of Red Sea coral reefs and on the effectiveness of the environmental management. I also analysed the spatial and temporal distribution of each surveyed taxa, identifying abundance trends related with anthropogenic impacts. Finally, I evaluated the effectiveness of the project to increase the environmental education of volunteers and showed that the participation in STEproject significantly increased both the knowledge on coral reef biology and ecology and the awareness of human behavioural impacts on the environment.