A hybrid commodity price-forecasting model applied to the sugar-alcohol sector

Accurate price forecasting for agricultural commodities can have significant decision-making implications for suppliers, especially those of biofuels, where the agriculture and energy sectors intersect. Environmental pressures and high oil prices affect demand for biofuels and have reignited the discussion about effects on food prices. Suppliers in the sugar-alcohol sector need to decide the ideal proportion of ethanol and sugar to optimise their financial strategy. Prices can be affected by exogenous factors, such as exchange rates and interest rates, as well as non-observable variables like the convenience yield, which is related to supply shortages. The literature generally uses two approaches: artificial neural networks (ANNs), which are recognised as being in the forefront of exogenous-variable analysis, and stochastic models such as the Kalman filter, which is able to account for non-observable variables. This article proposes a hybrid model for forecasting the prices of agricultural commodities that is built upon both approaches and is applied to forecast the price of sugar. The Kalman filter considers the structure of the stochastic process that describes the evolution of prices. Neural networks allow variables that can impact asset prices in an indirect, nonlinear way, what cannot be incorporated easily into traditional econometric models.

Essential Oil of Thymus vulgaris: Preparation of Pharmaceutical Mouthwash Formulation and In Vitro Evaluation of the Bacterial Plaque-Inhibiting Properties.

Essential Oil of Thymus vulgaris: Preparation of Pharmaceutical Mouthwash Formulation and In Vitro Evaluation of the Bacterial Plaque-Inhibiting Properties. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vitro effect of the essential oil of Thymus vulgaris (thyme) pure or incorporate in a alcohol-free pharmaceutical mouthwash formulation, against Streptococcus mutans (ATCC 25175), being determined the Minimal Inhibitory Concentration (MIC) and the effect in the bacterial plate formation. The MIC value obtained for the essential oil was 100 mu g/mL (1 %). The mouthwash pharmaceutical formulation containing commercial essential oil of T. vulgaris was preparated. Microbiological and macroscopic analysis as well as analyses for MEV confirmed the effectiveness of this new alcohol-free mouthwash formulation containing essential oil of T. vulgaris as agent with plaque-inhibiting properties and possible application in the preventive dentistry. The chemical characterization of the bioactive essential oil was accomplished by CG-MS, being verified the presence of carvacrol, p-cimene and alpha-pinene as major constituents.

Review of diagnostic screening instruments for alcohol and other drug use and other psychiatric disorders

In recent years there has been a growing recognition that many people with drug or alcohol problems are also experiencing a range of other psychiatric and psychological problems. The presence of concurrent psychiatric or psychological problems is likely to impact on the success of treatment services. These problems vary greatly, from undetected major psychiatric illnesses that meet internationally accepted diagnostic criteria such as those outlined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) of the American Psychiatric Association (1994), to less defined feelings of low mood and anxiety that do not meet diagnostic criteria but nevertheless impact on an individual’s sense of wellbeing and affect their quality of life.

Matrix elements of U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. I. The del-operator MEs in a two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis

This is the first in a series of three articles which aimed to derive the matrix elements of the U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. This is a basis appropriate to many-electron systems which have a natural partitioning of the orbital space and where also spin-dependent terms are included in the Hamiltonian. The method is based on a new spin-dependent unitary group approach to the many-electron correlation problem due to Gould and Paldus [M. D. Gould and J. Paldus, J. Chem. Phys. 92, 7394, (1990)]. In this approach, the matrix elements of the U(2n) generators in the U(n) x U(2)-adapted electronic Gelfand basis are determined by the matrix elements of a single Ll(n) adjoint tensor operator called the del-operator, denoted by Delta(j)(i) (1 less than or equal to i, j less than or equal to n). Delta or del is a polynomial of degree two in the U(n) matrix E = [E-j(i)]. The approach of Gould and Paldus is based on the transformation properties of the U(2n) generators as an adjoint tensor operator of U(n) x U(2) and application of the Wigner-Eckart theorem. Hence, to generalize this approach, we need to obtain formulas for the complete set of adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis. The nonzero shift coefficients are uniquely determined and may he evaluated by the methods of Gould et al. [see the above reference]. In this article, we define zero-shift adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis which are appropriate to the many-electron problem. By definition, these are proportional to the corresponding two-shell del-operator matrix elements, and it is shown that the Racah factorization lemma applies. Formulas for these coefficients are then obtained by application of the Racah factorization lemma. The zero-shift adjoint reduced Wigner coefficients required for this procedure are evaluated first. All these coefficients are needed later for the multishell case, which leads directly to the two-shell del-operator matrix elements. Finally, we discuss an application to charge and spin densities in a two-shell molecular system. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons.

A novel tricopper(II) complex of a polyamine alcohol

The trinuclear copper(II) complex of a new polyamino alcohol ligand has been isolated; it exhibits a structure similar to that found at the active site of ascorbate oxidase.

Young children, adolescents and alcohol - Part I: Exploring knowledge and awareness of alcohol and related issues

This article explores young children's and adolescents' views pertaining to: knowledge and awareness of alcohol and alcohol related issues; social situations in which. alcohol use is present; orientation to alcohol risk; perceived and actual alcohol use; social image and reputation; and short and long term health beliefs in relation to alcohol. Forty focus groups were conducted with 240 primary school students (118 males and 122 females) and 24 focus groups were conducted with 192 high school students (90 males and 102 females); the total being 64 focus groups comprising 432 school students. Participants ages ranged from five years three months to 16 years 10 months. The videotaped discussions revealed that approximately 75% of the primary school-aged children and almost all of the high school students reported that they had tasted alcohol. Parents were primarily responsible for providing the alcohol. Virtually all participants recognised and were able to correctly name a selection of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and levels of knowledge and awareness of the health and safety aspects of alcohol were relatively mixed. Presentation of bottles and cans was reported as being important in attracting young persons. These data suggest there is an urgent need for research addressed to the development of prevention/intervention education curriculum materials for use with primary school-aged children.

Young children, adolescents and alcohol - Part II: Reputation enhancement and self-concept

The research reported builds on our earlier work (Houghton, Carroll, & Odgers, 1998) which explored young children's and adolescents' views pertaining to knowledge and awareness of alcohol and alcohol-related issues. In this second study 640 (286 male and 354 female) school students randomly selected from five primary schools and five high schools in Perth, Western Australia participated. Data were obtained using The Which Group picture booklet questionnaire which comprises five parts and utilises illustrations (drawn by a professional children's artist) to gather information about children's and adolescents' orientations towards alcohol risk social situations, reputation enhancement, self-concept, and other related issues. Of the sample, 73% of males and 70.6% of females had tried alcohol, with beer being consumed most often. Significantly more participants in higher Year levels had tried alcohol. Over 90% said they drank at a party. Multivariate analysis revealed that nine of the 11 dependent variables contributed to the significant main effect of alcohol risk group, of which three were self-concept variables and six were reputation enhancement variables. It appears that individuals with the highest levels of orientation to alcohol risk believe that they are liked by their families, are physically attractive and have greater confidence in themselves. They also have higher levels of Admiration of Alcohol Related Activities and also of prosocial activities. While striving to attain a non-conforming reputation these individuals also wish to be ideally perceived by others as conforming. Gender and Age differences are investigated.

Comparison of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin, immunoglobulin A antibodies reactive with acetaldehyde-modified protein and acetaldehyde-modified albumin with conventional markers of alcohol consumption

Carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) has emerged as the best new marker for alcohol abuse. Recently plasma immunoglobulin A (IgA) reactivity with acetaldehyde (AcH)-modified proteins, or the modified proteins per se, have been proposed as a markers for high levels of alcohol consumption. In this study, we have compared CDT, IgA reactivity with AcH adducts (IgA ASR), and AcH-modified albumin with conventional markers of high alcohol intake in groups with well-defined drinking histories, The plasma activity of ALT, AST, and gamma-glutamyltransferase increased steadily with increasing alcohol consumption, CDT and AcH-modified albumin showed a similar pattern, whereas IgA ASR appeared only to be elevated after a threshold level of consumption had been reached, Neither CDT IgA ASR or AcH-modified albumin correlated strongly with any of the conventional markers or each other. This study shows that CDT, IgA ASR, AcH-modified albumin, and the conventional markers are not related, but suggests that the concurrent use of CDT and IgA ASR may lead to better identification of high alcohol intake.

Patient matching in treatment for alcohol dependence: is the null hypothesis still alive and well?

In the light of Project MATCH, is it reasonable to accept the null hypothesis that there are no clinically signi® cant matching effects between patient characteristics and cognitive± behaviour therapy (CBT), motivational enhancement therapy (MET) and Twelve-Step facilitation therapy (TSF)? The Project MATCH investigators considered the null hypothesis but preferred the alternative hypothesis that further analysis may reveal combinations of patient and therapist characteristics that show more substantial matching effects than any of the variables that they have examined to date.1

Self-efficacy for refusal mediated by outcome expectancies in the prediction of alcohol-dependence amongst young adults

The present study examined the relative importance of outcome expectancies and self-efficacy [1] in the prediction of alcohol dependence [2] and alcohol consumption in a sample of young adult drinkers drawn from a milieu previously reported as supportive of risky drinking. In predicting alcohol dependence, outcome expectancies were found to mediate self-efficacy and the same pattern was found for both males and females. This suggests that male and female drinkers may become more similar as they progress along the drinking continuum from risky drinking to dependent drinking. However, in women, in comparison to men, a greater array of expectancies and self-efficacy scales were found to predict heavy drinking, as measured by quantity and frequency. These results suggest that heavy drinking women are particularly at risk of developing drinking related complications and that preventative education needs to take into account gender differences.