Branching processes and computational collapse of discretized unimodal mappings

In computer simulations of smooth dynamical systems, the original phase space is replaced by machine arithmetic, which is a finite set. The resulting spatially discretized dynamical systems do not inherit all functional properties of the original systems, such as surjectivity and existence of absolutely continuous invariant measures. This can lead to computational collapse to fixed points or short cycles. The paper studies loss of such properties in spatial discretizations of dynamical systems induced by unimodal mappings of the unit interval. The problem reduces to studying set-valued negative semitrajectories of the discretized system. As the grid is refined, the asymptotic behavior of the cardinality structure of the semitrajectories follows probabilistic laws corresponding to a branching process. The transition probabilities of this process are explicitly calculated. These results are illustrated by the example of the discretized logistic mapping.

Transformation processes, pathways, and possible sources of distinctive polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin signatures in sink environments

In recent years, studies on environmental samples with unusual dibenzo-p-dioxin (PCDD) congener profiles were reported from a range of countries. These profiles, characterized by a dominance of octachlorinated dibenzodioxin (OCDD) and relatively low in dibenzofuran (PCDF) concentrations, could not be attributed to known sources or formation processes. In the present study, the processes that result in these unusual profiles were assessed using the concentrations and isomer signatures of PCDDs from dated estuarine sediment cores in Queensland, Australia. Increases in relative concentrations of lower chlorinated PODS and a relative decrease of OCDD were correlated with time of sediment deposition. Preferred lateral, anaerobic dechlorination of OCDD represents a likely pathway for these changes. In Queensland sediments, these transformations result in a distinct dominance of isomers fully chlorinated in the 1,4,6,9-positions (1,4-patterns), and similar 1,4-patterns were observed in sediments from elsewhere. Consequently, these environmental samples may not reflect the signatures of the original source, and a reevaluation of source inputs was undertaken. Natural formation of PCDDs, which has previously been suggested, is discussed; however, based on the present results and literature comparisons, we propose an alternative scenario. This scenario hypothesizes that an anthropogenic PCDD precursor input (e.g. pentachlorophenol) results in the contamination. These results and hypothesis imply further investigations are warrented into possible anthropogenic sources in areas where natural PCDD formation has been suggested.

Diversity and change in Australia's rangelands: a post-productivist transition with a difference?

Australia's rangelands are experiencing a post-productivist transition at a tempo comparable to Western Europe's, but in contexts that ensure marked divergence in impulses, actors, processes and outcomes. In Australia's most marginal lands, a flimsy mode of pastoral occupance is being displaced by renewed indigenous occupance, conservation and tourism, with significant changes in land ownership, property rights, investment sources and power relations, but also with structural problems arising from fugitive income streams. The sharp delineation between structurally coherent commodity-oriented regions and emerging amenity-oriented regions can provisionally be mapped at a national scale. A comparison of Australia with Western Europe indicates that three distinct but interconnected driving forces are propelling the rural transition, namely: agricultural overcapacity; the emergence of amenity-oriented uses; and changing societal values.

Robust model-order reduction of complex biological processes

This paper addresses robust model-order reduction of a high dimensional nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) model of a complex biological process. Based on a nonlinear, distributed parameter model of the same process which was validated against experimental data of an existing, pilot-scale BNR activated sludge plant, we developed a state-space model with 154 state variables in this work. A general algorithm for robustly reducing the nonlinear PDE model is presented and based on an investigation of five state-of-the-art model-order reduction techniques, we are able to reduce the original model to a model with only 30 states without incurring pronounced modelling errors. The Singular perturbation approximation balanced truncating technique is found to give the lowest modelling errors in low frequency ranges and hence is deemed most suitable for controller design and other real-time applications. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Organizational responses to a changing aid environment: the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (GTZ)

As a major European donor, German government development assistance faces a series of challenges. Recent political changes have raised expectations for demonstrable health outcomes as a result of German development assistance; there has been a deepened commitment to collaboration with other bilateral and multilateral donors; and partner countries are increasingly open to new approaches to development. German development assistance also reflects a new ethos of partnership and the shift to programmatic and sector based development approaches. At the same time, its particular organizational structure and administrative framework highlight the extent of structural and systems reforms required of donors by changing development relationships, and the tensions created in responding to these. This paper examines organizational changes within the German Agency for Technical Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit) (GTZ), aimed at increasing its Regional, Sectoral, Managerial and Process competence as they affect health and related sectors. These include the decentralization of GTZ, the trend to integration of projects, the increasing focus on policy and health systems reform, increased inter-sectoral collaboration, changes in recruitment and training, new perspectives in planning and evaluation and the introduction of a quality management programme. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

Ubiquitous travel service delivery

Free independent travelers require flexible, reactive service delivery due to their regularly changing location and activities and the lack of a wired Internet connection. A ubiquitous travel service delivery system that is able to dynamically deliver services in response to relevant events, such as changing location, availability of new last-minute specials, work opportunities, and safety issues can provide added value while retaining the flexibility that is so important to independent travelers. This article describes such a system. An engineering design research approach has been adopted to design the system. Issues addressed include traveler and service states and events, contexts, situations, and situation-action rules. An architecture is proposed that is based on distributed, cooperating software agents and mobile data technologies. The role of these agents is to continuously monitor situations that are occurring in the physical and virtual service spaces and to take the required action for any situations that are relevant to the traveler.

Indirect evidence of density-dependent population regulation in Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari : Ixodidae), an ectoparasite of reptiles

The extent to which density-dependent processes regulate natural populations is the subject of an ongoing debate. We contribute evidence to this debate showing that density-dependent processes influence the population dynamics of the ectoparasite Aponomma hydrosauri (Acari: Ixodidae), a tick species that infests reptiles in Australia. The first piece of evidence comes from an unusually long-term dataset on the distribution of ticks among individual hosts. If density-dependent processes are influencing either host mortality or vital rates of the parasite population, and those distributions can be approximated with negative binomial distributions, then general host-parasite models predict that the aggregation coefficient of the parasite distribution will increase with the average intensity of infections. We fit negative binomial distributions to the frequency distributions of ticks on hosts, and find that the estimated aggregation coefficient k increases with increasing average tick density. This pattern indirectly implies that one or more vital rates of the tick population must be changing with increasing tick density, because mortality rates of the tick's main host, the sleepy lizard, Tiliqua rugosa, are unaffected by changes in tick burdens. Our second piece of evidence is a re-analysis of experimental data on the attachment success of individual ticks to lizard hosts using generalized linear modelling. The probability of successful engorgement decreases with increasing numbers of ticks attached to a host. This is direct evidence of a density-dependent process that could lead to an increase in the aggregation coefficient of tick distributions described earlier. The population-scale increase in the aggregation coefficient is indirect evidence of a density-dependent process or processes sufficiently strong to produce a population-wide pattern, and thus also likely to influence population regulation. The direct observation of a density-dependent process is evidence of at least part of the responsible mechanism.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Using the flexibility index to compare batch and continuous activated sludge processes

This paper considers the question of which is better: the batch or the continuous activated sludge processes? It is an important question because dissension still exists in the wastewater industry as to the relative merits of each of the processes. A review of perceived differences in the processes from the point of view of two related disciplines, process engineering and biotechnology, is presented together with the results of previous comparative studies. These reviews highlight possible areas where more understanding is required. This is provided in the paper by application of the flexibility index to two case studies. The flexibility index is a useful process design tool that measures the ability of the process to cope with long term changes in operation.