Modeling Flood Stage-Duration-Frequency: A Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure in the Tidal Potomac

The service of a critical infrastructure, such as a municipal wastewater treatment plant (MWWTP), is taken for granted until a flood or another low frequency, high consequence crisis brings its fragility to attention. The unique aspects of the MWWTP call for a method to quantify the flood stage-duration-frequency relationship. By developing a bivariate joint distribution model of flood stage and duration, this study adds a second dimension, time, into flood risk studies. A new parameter, inter-event time, is developed to further illustrate the effect of event separation on the frequency assessment. The method is tested on riverine, estuary and tidal sites in the Mid-Atlantic region. Equipment damage functions are characterized by linear and step damage models. The Expected Annual Damage (EAD) of the underground equipment is further estimated by the parametric joint distribution model, which is a function of both flood stage and duration, demonstrating the application of the bivariate model in risk assessment. Flood likelihood may alter due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis method is developed to assess future flood risk by estimating flood frequency under conditions of higher sea level and stream flow response to increased precipitation intensity. Scenarios based on steady and unsteady flow analysis are generated for current climate, future climate within this century, and future climate beyond this century, consistent with the WWTP planning horizons. The spatial extent of flood risk is visualized by inundation mapping and GIS-Assisted Risk Register (GARR). This research will help the stakeholders of the critical infrastructure be aware of the flood risk, vulnerability, and the inherent uncertainty.

Fitting phase type distribution to service process with sequential phases

The work of this thesis is concerned with fitting Hypo-exponential and Erlang phase type distributions for modeling real life processes with non-exponential service time. There exist situations where exponential distributions cannot explain the distribution of service time properly. This thesis presents the application of two traditional statistical estimation techniques to approximate the service distributions of processes with coefficient of variation less than one. It also presents an algorithm to fit Hypo-exponential distribution for complex situations which can’t be handled properly with traditional estimation techniques. The result shows the effect of variation of sample size and other parameters on the efficiency of the estimation techniques by comparing their respective outputs. Furthermore it checks how accurately the proposed algorithm approximates a given distribution.

FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

DIFFUSE-INTERFACE FIELD APPROACH TO MODELING SELF-ASSEMBLY OF HETEROGENEOUS COLLOIDAL SYSTEMS AND RELATED DIPOLE-DIPOLE INTERACTION PHENOMENA

Colloid self-assembly under external control is a new route to fabrication of advanced materials with novel microstructures and appealing functionalities. The kinetic processes of colloidal self-assembly have attracted great interests also because they are similar to many atomic level kinetic processes of materials. In the past decades, rapid technological progresses have been achieved on producing shape-anisotropic, patchy, core-shell structured particles and particles with electric/magnetic charges/dipoles, which greatly enriched the self-assembled structures. Multi-phase carrier liquids offer new route to controlling colloidal self-assembly. Therefore, heterogeneity is the essential characteristics of colloid system, while so far there still lacks a model that is able to efficiently incorporate these possible heterogeneities. This thesis is mainly devoted to development of a model and computational study on the complex colloid system through a diffuse-interface field approach (DIFA), recently developed by Wang et al. This meso-scale model is able to describe arbitrary particle shape and arbitrary charge/dipole distribution on the surface or body of particles. Within the framework of DIFA, a Gibbs-Duhem-type formula is introduced to treat Laplace pressure in multi-liquid-phase colloidal system and it obeys Young-Laplace equation. The model is thus capable to quantitatively study important capillarity related phenomena. Extensive computer simulations are performed to study the fundamental behavior of heterogeneous colloidal system. The role of Laplace pressure is revealed in determining the mechanical equilibrium of shape-anisotropic particles at fluid interfaces. In particular, it is found that the Laplace pressure plays a critical role in maintaining the stability of capillary bridges between close particles, which sheds light on a novel route to in situ firming compact but fragile colloidal microstructures via capillary bridges. Simulation results also show that competition between like-charge repulsion, dipole-dipole interaction and Brownian motion dictates the degree of aggregation of heterogeneously charged particles. Assembly and alignment of particles with magnetic dipoles under external field is studied. Finally, extended studies on the role of dipole-dipole interaction are performed for ferromagnetic and ferroelectric domain phenomena. The results reveal that the internal field generated by dipoles competes with external field to determine the dipole-domain evolution in ferroic materials.

High Frequency Class DE Converter Using a Multilayer Coreless PCB Transformer

In modern power electronics equipment, it is desirable to design a low profile, high power density, and fast dynamic response converter. Increases in switching frequency reduce the size of the passive components such as transformers, inductors, and capacitors which results in compact size and less requirement for the energy storage. In addition, the fast dynamic response can be achieved by operating at high frequency. However, achieving high frequency operation while keeping the efficiency high, requires new advanced devices, higher performance magnetic components, and new circuit topology. These are required to absorb and utilize the parasitic components and also to mitigate the frequency dependent losses including switching loss, gating loss, and magnetic loss. Required performance improvements can be achieved through the use of Radio Frequency (RF) design techniques. To reduce switching losses, resonant converter topologies like resonant RF amplifiers (inverters) combined with a rectifier are the effective solution to maintain high efficiency at high switching frequencies through using the techniques such as device parasitic absorption, Zero Voltage Switching (ZVS), Zero Current Switching (ZCS), and a resonant gating. Gallium Nitride (GaN) device technologies are being broadly used in RF amplifiers due to their lower on- resistance and device capacitances compared with silicon (Si) devices. Therefore, this kind of semiconductor is well suited for high frequency power converters. The major problems involved with high frequency magnetics are skin and proximity effects, increased core and copper losses, unbalanced magnetic flux distribution generating localized hot spots, and reduced coupling coefficient. In order to eliminate the magnetic core losses which play a crucial role at higher operating frequencies, a coreless PCB transformer can be used. Compared to the conventional wire-wound transformer, a planar PCB transformer in which the windings are laid on the Printed Board Circuit (PCB) has a low profile structure, excellent thermal characteristics, and ease of manufacturing. Therefore, the work in this thesis demonstrates the design and analysis of an isolated low profile class DE resonant converter operating at 10 MHz switching frequency with a nominal output of 150 W. The power stage consists of a class DE inverter using GaN devices along with a sinusoidal gate drive circuit on the primary side and a class DE rectifier on the secondary side. For obtaining the stringent height converter, isolation is provided by a 10-layered coreless PCB transformer of 1:20 turn’s ratio. It is designed and optimized using 3D Finite Element Method (FEM) tools and radio frequency (RF) circuit design software. Simulation and experimental results are presented for a 10-layered coreless PCB transformer operating in 10 MHz.

Experimental and modeling studies of forced convection storage and drying systems for sweet potatoes

Sweet potato is an important strategic agricultural crop grown in many countries around the world. The roots and aerial vine components of the crop are used for both human consumption and, to some extent as a cheap source of animal feed. In spite of its economic value and growing contribution to health and nutrition, harvested sweet potato roots and aerial vine components has limited shelf-life and is easily susceptible to post-harvest losses. Although post-harvest losses of both sweet potato roots and aerial vine components is significant, there is no information available that will support the design and development of appropriate storage and preservation systems. In this context, the present study was initiated to improve scientific knowledge about sweet potato post-harvest handling. Additionally, the study also seeks to develop a PV ventilated mud storehouse for storage of sweet potato roots under tropical conditions. In study one, airflow resistance of sweet potato aerial vine components was investigated. The influence of different operating parameters such as airflow rate, moisture content and bulk depth at different levels on airflow resistance was analyzed. All the operating parameters were observed to have significant (P < 0.01) effect on airflow resistance. Prediction models were developed and were found to adequately describe the experimental pressure drop data. In study two, the resistance of airflow through unwashed and clean sweet potato roots was investigated. The effect of sweet potato roots shape factor, surface roughness, orientation to airflow, and presence of soil fraction on airflow resistance was also assessed. The pressure drop through unwashed and clean sweet potato roots was observed to increase with higher airflow, bed depth, root grade composition, and presence of soil fraction. The physical properties of the roots were incorporated into a modified Ergun model and compared with a modified Shedd’s model. The modified Ergun model provided the best fit to the experimental data when compared with the modified Shedd’s model. In study three, the effect of sweet potato root size (medium and large), different air velocity and temperature on the cooling/or heating rate and time of individual sweet potato roots were investigated. Also, a simulation model which is based on the fundamental solution of the transient equations was proposed for estimating the cooling and heating time at the centre of sweet potato roots. The results showed that increasing air velocity during cooling and heating significantly (P < 0.05) affects the cooling and heating times. Furthermore, the cooling and heating times were significantly different (P < 0.05) among medium and large size sweet potato roots. Comparison of the simulation results with experimental data confirmed that the transient simulation model can be used to accurately estimate the cooling and heating times of whole sweet potato roots under forced convection conditions. In study four, the performance of charcoal evaporative cooling pad configurations for integration into sweet potato roots storage systems was investigated. The experiments were carried out at different levels of air velocity, water flow rates, and three pad configurations: single layer pad (SLP), double layers pad (DLP) and triple layers pad (TLP) made out of small and large size charcoal particles. The results showed that higher air velocity has tremendous effect on pressure drop. Increasing the water flow rate above the range tested had no practical benefits in terms of cooling. It was observed that DLP and TLD configurations with larger wet surface area for both types of pads provided high cooling efficiencies. In study five, CFD technique in the ANSYS Fluent software was used to simulate airflow distribution in a low-cost mud storehouse. By theoretically investigating different geometries of air inlet, plenum chamber, and outlet as well as its placement using ANSYS Fluent software, an acceptable geometry with uniform air distribution was selected and constructed. Experimental measurements validated the selected design. In study six, the performance of the developed PV ventilated system was investigated. Field measurements showed satisfactory results of the directly coupled PV ventilated system. Furthermore, the option of integrating a low-cost evaporative cooling system into the mud storage structure was also investigated. The results showed a reduction of ambient temperature inside the mud storehouse while relative humidity was enhanced. The ability of the developed storage system to provide and maintain airflow, temperature and relative humidity which are the key parameters for shelf-life extension of sweet potato roots highlight its ability to reduce post-harvest losses at the farmer level, particularly under tropical climate conditions.

The spectral albedo of sea ice and salt crusts on the tropical ocean of Snowball Earth: II. Optical modeling

During the Snowball Earth events of the Neoproterozoic, tropical regions of the ocean could have developed a precipitated salt lag deposit left behind by sublimating sea ice. The major salt would have been hydrohalite, NaCl•2H2O. The crystals in such a deposit can be small and highly scattering, resulting in an allwave albedo similar to that of snow. The snow-free sea ice from which such a crust could develop has a lower albedo, around 0.5, so the development of a crust would substantially increase the albedo of tropical regions on Snowball Earth. Hydrohalite crystals are much less absorptive than ice in the near- infrared part of the solar spectrum, so their presence at the surface would increase the overall albedo as well as altering its spectral distribution. In this paper, we use laboratory measurements of the spectral albedo of a hydrohalite lag deposit, in combination with a radiative transfer model, to infer the inherent optical properties of hydrohalite as functions of wavelength. Using this result, we model mixtures of hydrohalite and ice representing both artificially created surfaces in the laboratory and surfaces relevant to Snowball Earth. The model is tested against sequences of laboratory measurements taken during the formation and the dissolution of a lag deposit of hydrohalite. We present a parameterization for the broadband albedo of cold, sublimating sea ice as it forms and evolves a hydrohalite crust, for use in climate models of Snowball Earth.

Spatial scale effects of sampling on the interpolation of species distribution models in the southwestern Amazon.

Knowledge of the geographical distribution of timber tree species in the Amazon is still scarce. This is especially true at the local level, thereby limiting natural resource management actions. Forest inventories are key sources of information on the occurrence of such species. However, areas with approved forest management plans are mostly located near access roads and the main industrial centers. The present study aimed to assess the spatial scale effects of forest inventories used as sources of occurrence data in the interpolation of potential species distribution models. The occurrence data of a group of six forest tree species were divided into four geographical areas during the modeling process. Several sampling schemes were then tested applying the maximum entropy algorithm, using the following predictor variables: elevation, slope, exposure, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). The results revealed that using occurrence data from only one geographical area with unique environmental characteristics increased both model overfitting to input data and omission error rates. The use of a diagonal systematic sampling scheme and lower threshold values led to improved model performance. Forest inventories may be used to predict areas with a high probability of species occurrence, provided they are located in forest management plan regions representative of the environmental range of the model projection area.

Modeling and Design of Phase Shifted Full Bridge Isolated DC-DC ZVS Converter with Peak Current Mode Control

Nowadays, there is a boom in the use of electrification. Electric vehicles are gaining interest worldwide due to various factors, including climate and environmental awareness. In this thesis, a step-down isolated power supply for electric tractors is investigated, specifically the phase-shifted full-bridge (PSFB) DC-DC with synchronous rectification and zero-voltage switching (ZVS). This converter was selected for its high-power capacity with high efficiency. A 3500 W PSFB converter with peak current control (PCCM) is designed and modeled in MATLAB. The input voltage range is from 550 V to 820 V and the output voltage range is limited to 9 V to 16 V with a maximum output current of 250 A. All components were commercially designed and selected, including magnetics for the high-frequency transformer and inductors, taking into account loss calculations. Zero voltage switching for the lagging leg is achieved at 13% to 100% load. The proven efficiency of the converter is around 90

Low Power instrument Transformer: technologies and applications

Instrument transformers serve an important role in the protection and isolation of AC electrical systems for measurements of different electrical parameters like voltage, current, power factor, frequency, and energy. As suggested by name these transformers are used in connection with suitable measuring instruments like an ammeter, wattmeter, voltmeter, and energy meters. We have seen how higher voltages and currents are transformed into lower magnitudes to provide isolation between power networks, relays, and other instruments. Reducing transient, suppressing electrical noises in sensitive devices, standardization of instruments and relays up to a few volts and current. Transformer performance directly affects the accuracy of power system measurements and the reliability of relay protection. We classified transformers in terms of purpose, insulating medium, Voltage ranges, temperature ranges, humidity or environmental effect, indoor and outdoor use, performance, Features, specification, efficiency, cost analysis, application, benefits, and limitations which enabled us to comprehend their correct use and selection criteria based on our desired requirements. We also discussed modern Low power instrument transformer products that are recently launched or offered by renowned companies like Schneider Electric, Siemens, ABB, ZIV, G&W etc. These new products are innovations and problem solvers in the domain of measurement, protection, digital communication, advance, and commercial energy metering. Since there is always some space for improvements to explore new advantages of Low power instrument transformers in the domain of their wide linearity, high-frequency range, miniaturization, structural and technological modification, integration, smart frequency modeling, and output prediction of low-power voltage transformers.

Jeans modeling of massive early-type galaxies with observed stellar kinematic profiles up to 2-3 effective radii

A recent integral-field spectroscopic (IFS) survey, the MASSIVE survey (Ma et al. 2014), observed the 116 most massive (MK < −25.3 mag, stellar mass M∗ > 10^11.6 M⊙) early-type galaxies (ETGs) within 108 Mpc, out to radii as large as 40 kpc, that correspond to ∼ 2 − 3 effective radii (Re). One of the major findings of the MASSIVE survey is that the galaxy sample is split nearly equally among three groups showing three different velocity dispersion profiles σ(R) outer of a radius ∼ 5 kpc (falling, flat and rising with radius). The purpose of this thesis is to model the kinematic profiles of six ETGs included in the MASSIVE survey and representative of the three observed σ(R) shapes, with the aim of investigating their dynamical structure. Models for the chosen galaxies are built using the numerical code JASMINE (Posacki, Pellegrini, and Ciotti 2013). The code produces models of axisymmetric galaxies, based on the solution of the Jeans equations for a multicomponent gravitational potential (supermassive black hole, stars and dark matter halo). With the aim of having a good agreement between the kinematics obtained from the Jeans equations, and the observed σ and rotation velocity V of MASSIVE (Veale et al. 2016, 2018), I derived constraints on the dark matter distribution and orbital anisotropy. This work suggests a trend of the dark matter amount and distribution with the shape of the velocity dispersion profiles in the outer regions: the models of galaxies with flat or rising velocity dispersion profiles show higher dark matter fractions fDM both within 1 Re and 5 Re. Orbital anisotropy alone cannot account for the different observed trends of σ(R) and has a minor effect compared to variations of the mass profile. Galaxies with similar stellar mass M∗ that show different velocity dispersion profiles (from falling to rising) are successfully modelled with a variation of the halo mass Mh.

Effect Of Platform Connection And Abutment Material On Stress Distribution In Single Anterior Implant-supported Restorations: A Nonlinear 3-dimensional Finite Element Analysis.

Although various abutment connections and materials have recently been introduced, insufficient data exist regarding the effect of stress distribution on their mechanical performance. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of different abutment materials and platform connections on stress distribution in single anterior implant-supported restorations with the finite element method. Nine experimental groups were modeled from the combination of 3 platform connections (external hexagon, internal hexagon, and Morse tapered) and 3 abutment materials (titanium, zirconia, and hybrid) as follows: external hexagon-titanium, external hexagon-zirconia, external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, internal hexagon-zirconia, internal hexagon-hybrid, Morse tapered-titanium, Morse tapered-zirconia, and Morse tapered-hybrid. Finite element models consisted of a 4×13-mm implant, anatomic abutment, and lithium disilicate central incisor crown cemented over the abutment. The 49 N occlusal loading was applied in 6 steps to simulate the incisal guidance. Equivalent von Mises stress (σvM) was used for both the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the implant and abutment in all the groups and the maximum (σmax) and minimum (σmin) principal stresses for the numerical comparison of the zirconia parts. The highest abutment σvM occurred in the Morse-tapered groups and the lowest in the external hexagon-hybrid, internal hexagon-titanium, and internal hexagon-hybrid groups. The σmax and σmin values were lower in the hybrid groups than in the zirconia groups. The stress distribution concentrated in the abutment-implant interface in all the groups, regardless of the platform connection or abutment material. The platform connection influenced the stress on abutments more than the abutment material. The stress values for implants were similar among different platform connections, but greater stress concentrations were observed in internal connections.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Photoelastic Analysis Of Fixed Partial Prosthesis Crown Height And Implant Length On Distribution Of Stress In Two Dental Implant Systems.

The aim of this study was to evaluate by photoelastic analysis stress distribution on short and long implants of two dental implant systems with 2-unit implant-supported fixed partial prostheses of 8 mm and 13 mm heights. Sixteen photoelastic models were divided into 4 groups: I: long implant (5 × 11 mm) (Neodent), II: long implant (5 × 11 mm) (Bicon), III: short implant (5 × 6 mm) (Neodent), and IV: short implants (5 × 6 mm) (Bicon). The models were positioned in a circular polariscope associated with a cell load and static axial (0.5 Kgf) and nonaxial load (15°, 0.5 Kgf) were applied to each group for both prosthetic crown heights. Three-way ANOVA was used to compare the factors implant length, crown height, and implant system (α = 0.05). The results showed that implant length was a statistically significant factor for both axial and nonaxial loading. The 13 mm prosthetic crown did not result in statistically significant differences in stress distribution between the implant systems and implant lengths studied, regardless of load type (P > 0.05). It can be concluded that short implants showed higher stress levels than long implants. Implant system and length was not relevant factors when prosthetic crown height were increased.

Graded Meshes In Bio-thermal Problems With Transmission-line Modeling Method.

In this study, the transmission-line modeling (TLM) applied to bio-thermal problems was improved by incorporating several novel computational techniques, which include application of graded meshes which resulted in 9 times faster in computational time and uses only a fraction (16%) of the computational resources used by regular meshes in analyzing heat flow through heterogeneous media. Graded meshes, unlike regular meshes, allow heat sources to be modeled in all segments of the mesh. A new boundary condition that considers thermal properties and thus resulting in a more realistic modeling of complex problems is introduced. Also, a new way of calculating an error parameter is introduced. The calculated temperatures between nodes were compared against the results obtained from the literature and agreed within less than 1% difference. It is reasonable, therefore, to conclude that the improved TLM model described herein has great potential in heat transfer of biological systems.