The use and abuse of population viability analysis

A recent study by Brook ef al. empirically tested the performance of population viability analysis (PVA) using data from 21 populations across a wide range of species. The study concluded that PVAs are good at predicting the future dynamics of populations. We suggest that this conclusion is a result of a bias in the studies that Brook et al, included in their analyses, We present arguments that PVAs can only be accurate at predicting extinction probabilities if data are extensive and reliable, and if the distribution of vital rates between individuals and years can be assumed stationary in the future, or if any changes can be accurately predicted. In particular, we note th at although catastrophes are likely to have precipitated many extinctions, estimates of the probability of catastrophes are unreliable.

Patchy populations in stochastic environments: Critical number of patches for persistence

We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.

Development of a novel titration and off-gas analysis (TOGA) sensor for study of biological processes in wastewater treatment systems

The development of the new TOGA (titration and off-gas analysis) sensor for the detailed study of biological processes in wastewater treatment systems is outlined. The main innovation of the sensor is the amalgamation of titrimetric and off-gas measurement techniques. The resulting measured signals are: hydrogen ion production rate (HPR), oxygen transfer rate (OTR), nitrogen transfer rate (NTR), and carbon dioxide transfer rate (CTR). While OTR and NTR are applicable to aerobic and anoxic conditions, respectively, HPR and CTR are useful signals under all of the conditions found in biological wastewater treatment systems, namely, aerobic, anoxic and anaerobic. The sensor is therefore a powerful tool for studying the key biological processes under all these conditions. A major benefit from the integration of the titrimetric and off-gas analysis methods is that the acid/base buffering systems, in particular the bicarbonate system, are properly accounted for. Experimental data resulting from the TOGA sensor in aerobic, anoxic, and anaerobic conditions demonstrates the strength of the new sensor. In the aerobic environment, carbon oxidation (using acetate as an example carbon source) and nitrification are studied. Both the carbon and ammonia removal rates measured by the sensor compare very well with those obtained from off-line chemical analysis. Further, the aerobic acetate removal process is examined at a fundamental level using the metabolic pathway and stoichiometry established in the literature, whereby the rate of formation of storage products is identified. Under anoxic conditions, the denitrification process is monitored and, again, the measured rate of nitrogen gas transfer (NTR) matches well with the removal of the oxidised nitrogen compounds (measured chemically). In the anaerobic environment, the enhanced biological phosphorus process was investigated. In this case, the measured sensor signals (HPR and CTR) resulting from acetate uptake were used to determine the ratio of the rates of carbon dioxide production by competing groups of microorganisms, which consequently is a measure of the activity of these organisms. The sensor involves the use of expensive equipment such as a mass spectrometer and requires special gases to operate, thus incurring significant capital and operational costs. This makes the sensor more an advanced laboratory tool than an on-line sensor. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Columnar to equiaxed transition of eutectic in hypoeutectic aluminium-silicon alloys

Directional solidification of unmodified and strontium modified binary, high-purity aluminium-7 wt% silicon and commercial A356 alloys has been carried out to investigate the mechanism of eutectic solidification. The microstructure of the eutectic growth inter-face was investigated with optical microscopy and Electron Backscattering Diffraction (EBSD). In the commercial alloys, the eutectic solidification inter-face extends in the growth direction and creates a eutectic mushy zone. A planar eutectic growth front is observed in the high-purity alloys. The eutectic aluminium has mainly the same crystallographic orientation as the dendrites in the unmodified alloys and the strontium modified high-purity alloy. A more complex eutectic grain structure is found in the strontium modified commercial alloy. A mechanism involving constitutional undercooling and a columnar to equiaxed transition explains the differences between pure and commercial alloys. It is probably caused by the segregation of iron and magnesium and the activation of nucleants in the commercial alloy. (C) 2002 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the Williams-Landel-Ferry model to the viscosity-temperature relationship of Australian honeys

The rheological behaviour of nine unprocessed Australian honeys was investigated for the applicability of the Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. The viscosity of the honeys was obtained over a range of shear rates (0.01-40 s(-1)) from 2degrees to 40 degreesC, and all the honeys exhibited Newtonian behaviour with viscosity reducing as the temperature was increased. The honeys with high moisture were of lower viscosity, The glass transition temperatures of the honeys, as measured with a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), ranged from -40degrees to -46 degreesC, and four models (WLF. Arrhenius, Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF), and power-law) were investigated to describe the temperature dependence of the viscosity. The WLF was the most suitable and the correlation coefficient averaged 0.999 +/- 0.0013 as against 0.996 +/- 0.0042 for the Arrhenius model while the mean relative deviation modulus was 0-12% for the WLF model and 10-40% for the Arrhenius one. With the universal values for the WLF constants, the temperature dependence of the viscosity was badly predicted. From non-linear regression analysis, the constants of the WLF models for the honeys were obtained (C-1 = 13.7-21.1: C-2 = 55.9-118.7) and are different from the universal values. These WLF constants will be valuable for adequate modeling of the rheology of the honeys, and they can be used to assess the temperature sensitivity of the honeys. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hemodynamic and ventilatory effects of manual respiratory physiotherapy techniques of chest clapping, vibration, and shaking in an animal model

Chest clapping, vibration, and shaking were studied in 10 physiotherapists who applied these techniques on an anesthetized animal model. Hemodynamic variables (such as heart rate, blood pressure, pulmonary artery pressure, and right atrial pressure) were measured during the application of these techniques to verify claims of adverse events. In addition, expired tidal volume and peak expiratory flow rate were measured to ascertain effects of these techniques. Physiotherapists in this study applied chest clapping at a rate of 6.2 +/- 0.9 Hz, vibration at 10.5 +/- 2.3 Hz, and shaking at 6.2 +/- 2.3 Hz. With the use of these rates, esophageal pressure swings of 8.8 +/- 5.0, 0.7 +/- 0.3, and 1.4 +/- 0.7 mmHg resulted from clapping, vibration, and shaking respectively. Variability in rates and forces generated by these techniques was 80% of variance in shaking force (P = 0.003). Application of these techniques by physiotherapists was found to have no significant effects on hemodynamic and most ventilatory variables in this study. From this study, we conclude that chest clapping, vibration, and shaking 1) can be consistently performed by physiotherapists; 2) are significantly related to physiotherapists' characteristics, particularly clinical experience; and 3) caused no significant hemodynamic effects.

A new method for analysing the equilibrium and time-dependent behaviour of Markovian models

Many large-scale stochastic systems, such as telecommunications networks, can be modelled using a continuous-time Markov chain. However, it is frequently the case that a satisfactory analysis of their time-dependent, or even equilibrium, behaviour is impossible. In this paper, we propose a new method of analyzing Markovian models, whereby the existing transition structure is replaced by a more amenable one. Using rates of transition given by the equilibrium expected rates of the corresponding transitions of the original chain, we are able to approximate its behaviour. We present two formulations of the idea of expected rates. The first provides a method for analysing time-dependent behaviour, while the second provides a highly accurate means of analysing equilibrium behaviour. We shall illustrate our approach with reference to a variety of models, giving particular attention to queueing and loss networks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of ageing, heat shock treatment and in vivo total antioxidant status on gene-expression profile and protein synthesis in human peripheral lymphocytes

Ageing results in a progressive, intrinsic and generalised imbalance of the control of regulatory systems. A key manifestation of this complex biological process includes the attenuation of the universal stress response. Here we provide the first global assessment of the ageing process as it affects the heat shock response, utilising human peripheral lymphocytes and cDNA microarray analysis. The genomic approach employed in our preliminary study was supplemented with a proteomic approach. In addition, the current study correlates the in vivo total antioxidant status with the age-related differential gene expression as well as the translational kinetics of heat shock proteins (hsps). Most of the genes encoding stress response proteins on the 4224 element microarray used in this study were significantly elevated after heat shock treatment of lymphocytes obtained from both young and old individuals albeit to a greater extent in the young. Cell signaling and signal transduction genes as well as some oxidoreductases showed varied response. Results from translational kinetics of induction of major hsps, from 0 to 24 It recovery period were broadly consistent with the differential expression of HSC 70 and HSP 40 genes. Total antioxidant levels in plasma from old individuals were found to be significantly lower by comparison with young, in agreement with the widely acknowledged role of oxidant homeostasis in the ageing process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Slow-release and organic fertilizers on early growth of Rangpur lime

Slow-release and organic fertilizers are promising alternatives to conventional fertilizers, as both reduce losses by leaching, volatilization and problems of toxicity and/or salinity to plants. The objective of this work was to evaluate the effect of different rates of the organic fertilizer Humato-Macota® compared with the slow-release fertilizer Osmocote® on the growth and nitrogen content in the dry matter of Rangpur lime. A field experiment was conducted in a factorial completely randomized design with an additional treatment (4 x 4 +1). The first factor consisted of four Humato­Macota® rates (0, 1, 2, and 3%) applied to the substrate; the second factor consisted of the same Humato-Macota® concentrations, but applied as fortnightly foliar sprays; the additional treatment consisted of application of 5 kgm-3 Osmocote® 18-05-09. Means of all growth characteristics (plant height, total dry matter, root/shoot ratio and leaf area) and the potential quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) were higher when plants were fertilized with the slow-release fertilizer. The organic fertilizer applied alone did not meet the N requirement of Rangpur lime.

Effect of poling state and morphology of piezoelectric poly(vinylidene fluoride) membranes for skeletal muscle tissue engineering

This work reports on the influence of polarization and morphology of electroactive poly(vinylidene fluoride), PVDF, on the biological response of myoblast cells. Non-poled, ‘‘poled +’’ and “poled-“ -PVDF were prepared in the form of films. Further, random and aligned electrospun -PVDF fiber mats were also prepared. It is demonstrated that negatively charged surfaces improve cell adhesion and proliferation and that the directional growth of the myoblast cells can be achieved by the cell culture on oriented fibers. Therefore, the potential application of electroative materials for muscle regeneration is demonstrated.

Nutrient accumulation and biomass production of alfafa after soil amendment with silicates

Studies on the use of silicate correctives in agriculture show that they have great potential to improve soil chemical characteristics, however, little information is available on the reactivity rates of their particle-size fractions. This study investigated whether the reactivity rates obtained experimentally could be considered in the calculation of ECC (effective calcium carbonate) for soil liming, promoting adequate development of alfalfa plants. Six treatments were evaluated in the experiment, consisting of two slag types applied in two rates. The experimental ECC was used to calculate one of the rates and the ECC determined in the laboratory was used to calculate the other. Rates of limestone and wollastonite were based on the ECC determined in laboratory. The rates of each soil acidity corretive were calculated to increase the base saturation to 80%. The treatments were applied to a Rhodic Hapludox and an Alfisol Ferrudalfs. The methods for ECC determination established for lime can be applied to steel slag. The application of slag corrected soil acidity with consequent accumulation of Ca, P, and Si in alfalfa, favoring DM production.

The epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis mansoni where Biomphalaria tenagophila is the snail host

The epidemiology and control of schistosomiasis mansoni in the Municipality of Pedro de Toledo (State of S. Paulo, Brazil) since 1980, has been studied. In 1980 the prevalence evaluated by stool exams (Kato-Katz method) was 22.8% and no statistical difference at 5.0% level was observed between rural and urban zones. The intensity of infection was low (58.5 eggs/g of faeces); the highest prevalence and intensity of infection rates were observed within the group of from 5 to 29 years of age, respectively. The transmission of schistosomiasis usually occurred during leisure time. The majority of the carriers of the parasite were asymptomatic. Of the B. tenagophila examined only 0.4% were found to be infected. The control programme has been intensified from 1981 on resulting in a sharp decrease in the prevalence from 22.8% in 1980 to 6% at the present time. This result shows that, in spite of the control programme there is a residual human prevalence. A beginning has been made on the investigation into the possible causes of this residual prevalence (6.0% was maintained through out 1987).

The problem of estimating the volatility of zero coupon bond interest rate

Financial literature and financial industry use often zero coupon yield curves as input for testing hypotheses, pricing assets or managing risk. They assume this provided data as accurate. We analyse implications of the methodology and of the sample selection criteria used to estimate the zero coupon bond yield term structure on the resulting volatility of spot rates with different maturities. We obtain the volatility term structure using historical volatilities and Egarch volatilities. As input for these volatilities we consider our own spot rates estimation from GovPX bond data and three popular interest rates data sets: from the Federal Reserve Board, from the US Department of the Treasury (H15), and from Bloomberg. We find strong evidence that the resulting zero coupon bond yield volatility estimates as well as the correlation coefficients among spot and forward rates depend significantly on the data set. We observe relevant differences in economic terms when volatilities are used to price derivatives.

Infestation of Aedes aegypti estimated by oviposition traps in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess infestation levels of Aedes aegypti using the oviposition trap (ovitrap) method and to compare these results with data obtained with the use of indices traditionally applied in public programs aimed at fighting this vector. METHODS: Nine sentinel areas in Northeastern, Brazil, were assessed and infestation levels were measured for a nine-month period. Egg density and container indices were estimated and compared with previous results found using the house index and Breteau index. RESULTS: The results indicated that the area studied was infested with this vector during the entire study period and that the infestation was widespread in all areas. Different results were found with the different indices studied. There were areas in which the house index and the Breteau index were negative or close to zero, whereas the container index for the same area was 11% and the egg density index was 8.3%. CONCLUSIONS: The container and egg density indices allow better assessment of infestation rates in a city than the conventionally used indices (house index and Breteau index). At lower operational costs and easier standardization, these indices can be applied as a measurement tool for assessing infestation rates during entomological surveillance in programs to fight Aedes aegypti.

Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.