Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

The cost-effectiveness and public health benefit of nalmefene added to psychosocial support for the reduction of alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels: a Markov model.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Development and experimental validation of a finite element model of total ankle replacement.

Total ankle replacement remains a less satisfactory solution compared to other joint replacements. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a finite element model of total ankle replacement, for future testing of hypotheses related to clinical issues. To validate the finite element model, an experimental setup was specifically developed and applied on 8 cadaveric tibias. A non-cemented press fit tibial component of a mobile bearing prosthesis was inserted into the tibias. Two extreme anterior and posterior positions of the mobile bearing insert were considered, as well as a centered one. An axial force of 2kN was applied for each insert position. Strains were measured on the bone surface using digital image correlation. Tibias were CT scanned before implantation, after implantation, and after mechanical tests and removal of the prosthesis. The finite element model replicated the experimental setup. The first CT was used to build the geometry and evaluate the mechanical properties of the tibias. The second CT was used to set the implant position. The third CT was used to assess the bone-implant interface conditions. The coefficient of determination (R-squared) between the measured and predicted strains was 0.91. Predicted bone strains were maximal around the implant keel, especially at the anterior and posterior ends. The finite element model presented here is validated for future tests using more physiological loading conditions.

Retrovirus-host interactions. The mouse mammary tumor virus model.

Mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV) is a retrovirus which can induce mammary carcinomas in mice late in life by activation of proto-oncogenes after integration in their vicinity. Surprisingly, it requires a functional immune system to achieve efficient infection of the mammary gland. This requirement became clear when it was discovered that it has developed strategies to exploit the immune response. Instead of escaping immune detection, it induces a vigorous polyclonal T-B interaction which is required to induce a chronic infection. This is achieved by activating and then infecting antigen presenting cells (B cells), expressing a superantigen on their cell surface and triggering unlimited help by the large number of superantigen-specific T cells. The end result of this strong T-B interaction is the proliferation and differentiation of the infected B cells leading to their long term survival.

Key competences in the new ventures: a model for evaluating

This research studies from an internal view based on the Competency-Based Perspective (CBP), key organizational competencies developed for small new business. CBP is chosen in an attempt to explain the differences characterizing the closed companies from the consolidated ones. The main contribution of this paper is the definition of a set of key organizational competencies for new ventures from services and low technology based sectors. Using the classification proposed by [1] and a review of the entrepreneurship literature, the main competencies were defined and classified as: managerial, input-based, transformation-based, and output-based competencies. The proposed model for evaluating new ventures organizational competence is tested by means of Structural Equation

Histological and histochemical evaluation of human oral mucosa constructs developed by tissue engineering

Reconstruction of large oral mucosa defects is often challenging, since the shortage of healthy oral mucosa to replace the excised tissues is very common. In this context, tissue engineering techniques may provide a source of autologous tissues available for transplant in these patients. In this work, we developed a new model of artificial oral mucosa generated by tissue engineering using a fibrin-agarose scaffold. For that purpose, we generated primary cultures of human oral mucosa fibroblasts and keratinocytes from small biopsies of normal oral mucosa using enzymatic treatments. Then we determined the viability of the cultured cells by electron probe quantitative X-ray microanalysis, and we demonstrated that most of the cells in the primary cultures were alive and had high K/Na ratios. Once cell viability was determined, we used the cultured fibroblasts and keratinocytes to develop an artificial oral mucosa construct by using a fibrin-agarose extracellular matrix and a sequential culture technique using porous culture inserts. Histological analysis of the artificial tissues showed high similarities with normal oral mucosa controls. The epithelium of the oral substitutes had several layers, with desmosomes and apical microvilli and microplicae. Both the controls and the oral mucosa substitutes showed high suprabasal expression of cytokeratin 13 and low expression of cytokeratin 10. All these results suggest that our model of oral mucosa using fibrin-agarose scaffolds show several similarities with native human oral mucosa.

Postmortem circulation: a new model for testing endovascular devices and training clinicians in their use.

The development of new medical devices, such as aortic valves, requires numerous preliminary studies on animals and training of personnel on cadavers before the devices can be used in patients. Postmortem circulation, a technique used for postmortem angiography, allows the vascular system to be reperfused in a way similar to that in living persons. This technique is used for postmortem investigations to visualize the human vascular system and to make vascular diagnoses. Specific material for reperfusing a human body was developed recently. Our aim was to investigate whether postmortem circulation that imitates in vivo conditions allows for the testing of medical materials on cadavers. We did this by delivering an aortic valve using minimally invasive methods. Postmortem circulation was established in eight corpses to recreate an environment as close as possible to in vivo conditions. Mobile fluoroscopy and a percutaneous catheterization technique were used to deliver the material to the correct place. Once the valve was implanted, the heart and primary vessels were extracted to confirm its position. Postmortem circulation proved to be essential in several of the cadavers because it helped the clinicians to deliver the material and improve their implantation techniques. Due to the intravascular circulation, sites with substantial arteriosclerotic stenosis could be bypassed, which would have been impossible without perfusion. Although originally developed for postmortem investigations, this reperfusion technique could be useful for testing new medical devices intended for living patients.

The effect of COX-2 inhibitors on the formation of heterotopic bone in a rat model : O1323

Aims: 1) to create a new and reproducible animal model to produce heterotopic ossification (HO) 2) to be able to exactly quantify the amount of HO using a microCT scan and 3) to prove the hypothesis that COX-2 inhibitors are efficacious in the prevention of HO. Methods: We developed a IACUC-approved Lewis rat model, in which the ventral side of the right femur was scraped to mechanically disrupt the periosteum. By clamping the vastus intermedius ischemic injury to the muscle was produced to enhance HO. Finally homologous bone marrow from a donor rat was placed on the anterior surface of the femur. Half of the study group (8 rats) received chow mixed with a COX-2 inhibitor, while the other half received normal chow. After 6 weeks the animals were sacrificed, the femurs removed and imaged by microCT. Grading of HO was based on the thickness of ectopic bone as evaluated in a blinded fashion by 3 independent observers. Results: All animals developed bilateral HO. Rats treated with COX-2 inhibitors developed significantly less ectopic bone than the control group rats. Conclusions: The results suggest that we have created a very reliable, reproducible model to form ectopic bone in rats. Using the microCT we can precisely quantify the amount of HO. We have been able to show that COX-2 inhibitors significantly decrease the amount of HO formation and are thus a good alternative to non-specific NSAIDs with their potential serious side effects on the gastrointestinal tract and on hemo-stastis.

Steady-state brain glucose transport kinetics re-evaluated with a four-state conformational model.

Glucose supply from blood to brain occurs through facilitative transporter proteins. A near linear relation between brain and plasma glucose has been experimentally determined and described by a reversible model of enzyme kinetics. A conformational four-state exchange model accounting for trans-acceleration and asymmetry of the carrier was included in a recently developed multi-compartmental model of glucose transport. Based on this model, we demonstrate that brain glucose (G(brain)) as function of plasma glucose (G(plasma)) can be described by a single analytical equation namely comprising three kinetic compartments: blood, endothelial cells and brain. Transport was described by four parameters: apparent half saturation constant K(t), apparent maximum rate constant T(max), glucose consumption rate CMR(glc), and the iso-inhibition constant K(ii) that suggests G(brain) as inhibitor of the isomerisation of the unloaded carrier. Previous published data, where G(brain) was quantified as a function of plasma glucose by either biochemical methods or NMR spectroscopy, were used to determine the aforementioned kinetic parameters. Glucose transport was characterized by K(t) ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 mM, T(max)/CMR(glc) from 4.6 to 5.6, and K(ii) from 51 to 149 mM. It was noteworthy that K(t) was on the order of a few mM, as previously determined from the reversible model. The conformational four-state exchange model of glucose transport into the brain includes both efflux and transport inhibition by G(brain), predicting that G(brain) eventually approaches a maximum concentration. However, since K(ii) largely exceeds G(plasma), iso-inhibition is unlikely to be of substantial importance for plasma glucose below 25 mM. As a consequence, the reversible model can account for most experimental observations under euglycaemia and moderate cases of hypo- and hyperglycaemia.

Animal model to compare the effects of suture technique on cross-sectional compliance on end-to-side anastomoses.

OBJECTIVE: An animal model has been developed to compare the effects of suture technique on the luminal dimensions and compliance of end-to-side vascular anastomoses. METHODS: Carotid and internal mammalian arteries (IMAs) were exposed in three pigs (90 kg). IMAs were sectioned distally to perform end-to-side anastomoses on carotid arteries. One anastomosis was performed with 7/0 polypropylene running suture. The other was performed with the automated suture delivery device (Perclose/Abbott Labs Inc.) that makes a 7/0 polypropylene interrupted suture. Four piezoelectric crystals were sutured on toe, heel and both lateral sides of each anastomosis to measure anastomotic axes. Anastomotic cross-sectional area (CSAA) was calculated with: CSAA = pi x mM/4 where m and M are the minor and major axes of the elliptical anastomosis. Cross-sectional anastomotic compliance (CSAC) was calculated as CSAC=Delta CSAA/Delta P where Delta P is the mean pulse pressure and Delta CSAA is the mean CSAA during cardiac cycle. RESULTS: We collected a total of 1200000 pressure-length data per animal. For running suture we had a mean systolic CSAA of 26.94+/-0.4 mm(2) and a mean CSAA in diastole of 26.30+/-0.5 mm(2) (mean Delta CSAA was 0.64 mm(2)). CSAC for running suture was 4.5 x 10(-6)m(2)/kPa. For interrupted suture we had a mean CSAA in systole of 21.98+/-0.2 mm(2) and a mean CSAA in diastole of 17.38+/-0.3 mm(2) (mean Delta CSAA was 4.6+/-0.1 mm(2)). CSAC for interrupted suture was 11 x 10(-6) m(2)/kPa. CONCLUSIONS: This model, even with some limitations, can be a reliable source of information improving the outcome of vascular anastomoses. The study demonstrates that suture technique has a substantial effect on cross-sectional anastomotic compliance of end-to-side anastomoses. Interrupted suture may maximise the anastomotic lumen and provides a considerably higher CSAC than continuous suture, that reduces flow turbulence, shear stress and intimal hyperplasia. The Heartflo anastomosis device is a reliable instrument that facilitates performance of interrupted suture anastomoses.

The ALK-F1174L activating mutation is tumorigenic in MONC-1 neural crest stem cells in an orthotopic murine model of neuroblastoma

Background: Activating mutations of the anaplastic lymphoma receptor tyrosine kinase gene (ALK) were identified in both somatic and familial neuroblastoma. The most common somatic mutation, F1174L, is associated with NMYC amplification and displayed an efficient transforming activity in vivo. In addition, both AKL-F1174L and NMYC were shown cooperate in neuroblastoma tumorigenesis in animal models. To analyse the role of ALK mutations in the oncogenesis of neuroblastoma, ALK wt and various ALK mutants were transduced in murine neural crest stem cells (MONC1). Methods: ALK-wt, and F1174L, and R1275Q mutants were stably expressed by retroviral infection using the pMIGR1 vector in the murine neural crest stem cell line MONC-1, previously immortalised with v-myc, and further implanted subcutaneously or orthotopically in nude mice. Results: Both MONC1-ALK-F1174L and -R1275Q cells displayed a rapid tumour forming capacity upon subcutaneous injection in nude mice compared to control MONC1-MIGR or MONC1 cells. Interestingly, the transforming capacity of the F1174L mutant was much more potent compared to that of R1275Q mutant in murine neural crest stem cells, while ALK-wt was not tumorigenic. In addition, mice implanted orthotopically in the left adrenal gland with MONC1-ALK-F1174L cells developed highly aggressive tumours in 100% of mice within three weeks, while MONC1-Migr or MONC1 derived tumours displayed a longer latency and a reduced tumour take. Conclusions: The activating ALK-F1174L mutant is highly tumorigenic in neural crest stem cells. Nevertheless, we cannot exclude a functional implication of the v-myc oncogene used for MONC1 cells immortalisation. Indeed, the control MONC1-Migr and MONC1 cells were also able to derive subcutaneous and orthotopic tumours, although with considerable reduced efficiency. Further investigations using neural crest stem cell lacking exogenous myc expression are currently on way to assess the exclusive role of ALK mutations in NB oncogenesis.

Ionic imbalance and lack of effect of adjuvant treatment with methylene blue in the hamster model of leptospirosis

Leptospirosis in humans usually involves hypokalaemia and hypomagnesaemia and the putative mechanism underlying such ionic imbalances may be related to nitric oxide (NO) production. We previously demonstrated the correlation between serum levels of NO and the severity of renal disease in patients with severe leptospirosis. Methylene blue inhibits soluble guanylyl cyclase (downstream of the action of any NO synthase isoforms) and was recently reported to have beneficial effects on clinical and experimental sepsis. We investigated the occurrence of serum ionic changes in experimental leptospirosis at various time points (4, 8, 16 and 28 days) in a hamster model. We also determined the effect of methylene blue treatment when administered as an adjuvant therapy, combined with late initiation of standard antibiotic (ampicillin) treatment. Hypokalaemia was not reproduced in this model: all of the groups developed increased levels of serum potassium (K). Furthermore, hypermagnesaemia, rather than magnesium (Mg) depletion, was observed in this hamster model of acute infection. These findings may be associated with an accelerated progression to acute renal failure. Adjuvant treatment with methylene blue had no effect on survival or serum Mg and K levels during acute-phase leptospirosis in hamsters.

Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Metallothionein-1 and nitric oxide expression are inversely correlated in a murine model of Chagas disease

Chagas disease, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, represents an endemic among Latin America countries. The participation of free radicals, especially nitric oxide (NO), has been demonstrated in the pathophysiology of seropositive individuals with T. cruzi. In Chagas disease, increased NO contributes to the development of cardiomyopathy and megacolon. Metallothioneins (MTs) are efficient free radicals scavengers of NO in vitro and in vivo. Here, we developed a murine model of the chronic phase of Chagas disease using endemic T. cruzi RyCH1 in BALB/c mice, which were divided into four groups: infected non-treated (Inf), infected N-monomethyl-L-arginine treated (Inf L-NAME), non-infected L-NAME treated and non-infected vehicle-treated. We determined blood parasitaemia and NO levels, the extent of parasite nests in tissues and liver MT-I expression levels. It was observed that NO levels were increasing in Inf mice in a time-dependent manner. Inf L-NAME mice had fewer T. cruzi nests in cardiac and skeletal muscle with decreased blood NO levels at day 135 post infection. This affect was negatively correlated with an increase of MT-I expression (r = -0.8462, p < 0.0001). In conclusion, we determined that in Chagas disease, an unknown inhibitory mechanism reduces MT-I expression, allowing augmented NO levels.