Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Design of Pulsed Electroacoustic Measurement System for Space Charge Characterisation

Pulsed electroacoustic (PEA) method is a commonly used non-destructive technique for investigating space charges. It has been developed since early 1980s. These days there is continuing interest for better understanding of the influence of space charge on the reliability of solid electrical insulation under high electric field. The PEA method is widely used for space charge profiling for its robust and relatively inexpensive features. The PEA technique relies on a voltage impulse used to temporarily disturb the space charge equilibrium in a dielectric. The acoustic wave is generated by charge movement in the sample and detected by means of a piezoelectric film. The spatial distribution of the space charge is contained within the detected signal. The principle of such a system is already well established, and several kinds of setups have been constructed for different measurement needs. This thesis presents the design of a PEA measurement system as a systems engineering project. The operating principle and some recent developments are summarised. The steps of electrical and mechanical design of the instrument are discussed. A common procedure for measuring space charges is explained and applied to verify the functionality of the system. The measurement system is provided as an additional basic research tool for the Corporate Research Centre of ABB (China) Ltd. It can be used to characterise flat samples with thickness of 0.2–0.5 mm under DC stress. The spatial resolution of the measurement is 20 μm.

Design of salient pole PM synchronous machines for a vehicle traction application – Analysis and

This doctoral thesis presents a study on the development of a liquid-cooled frame salient pole permanent-magnet-exited traction machine for a four-wheel-driven electric car. The emphasis of the thesis is put on a radial flux machine design in order to achieve a light-weight machine structure for traction applications. The design features combine electromagnetic and thermal design methods, because traction machine operation does not have a strict operating point. Arbitrary load cycles and the flexible supply require special attention in the design process. It is shown that accurate modelling of the machine magnetic state is essential for high-performance operation. The saturation effect related to the cross-saturation has to be taken carefully into account in order to achieve the desired operation. Two prototype machines have been designed and built for testing: one totally enclosed machine with a special magnet module pole arrangement and another through-ventilated machine with a more traditional embedded magnet structure. Both structures are built with magnetically salient structures in order to increase the torque production capability with the reluctance torque component. Both machine structures show potential for traction usage. However, the traditional embedded magnet design turns out to be mechanically the more secure one of these two machine options.

Design of an amplifier and an instrumentation setup for a harsh environment heat flux measurement application – case axial flux electric machine

Measurement is a tool for researching. Therefore, it is important that the measuring process is carried out correctly, without distorting the signal or the measured event. Researches of thermoelectric phenomena have been focused more on transverse thermoelectric phenomena during recent decades. Transverse Seebeck effect enables to produce thinner and faster heat flux sensor than before. Studies about transverse Seebeck effect have so far focused on materials, so in this Master’s Thesis instrumentation of transverse Seebeck effect based heat flux sensor is studied, This Master’s Thesis examines an equivalent circuit of transverse Seebeck effect heat flux sensors, their connectivity to electronics and choosing and design a right type amplifier. The research is carried out with a case study which is Gradient Heat Flux Sensors and an electrical motor. In this work, a general equivalent circuit was presented for the transverse Seebeck effect-based heat flux sensor. An amplifier was designed for the sensor of the case study, and the solution was produced for the measurement of the local heat flux of the electric motor to improve the electromagnetic compatibility.

Optimal design of 3R manipulators by using classical techniques and simulated annealin

In this paper, the optimum design of 3R manipulators is formulated and solved by using an algebraic formulation of workspace boundary. A manipulator design can be approached as a problem of optimization, in which the objective functions are the size of the manipulator and workspace volume; and the constrains can be given as a prescribed workspace volume. The numerical solution of the optimization problem is investigated by using two different numerical techniques, namely, sequential quadratic programming and simulated annealing. Numerical examples illustrate a design procedure and show the efficiency of the proposed algorithms.

Computational studies for the design of process equipment with complex geometries

This study combines several projects related to the flows in vessels with complex shapes representing different chemical apparata. Three major cases were studied. The first one is a two-phase plate reactor with a complex structure of intersecting micro channels engraved on one plate which is covered by another plain plate. The second case is a tubular microreactor, consisting of two subcases. The first subcase is a multi-channel two-component commercial micromixer (slit interdigital) used to mix two liquid reagents before they enter the reactor. The second subcase is a micro-tube, where the distribution of the heat generated by the reaction was studied. The third case is a conventionally packed column. However, flow, reactions or mass transfer were not modeled. Instead, the research focused on how to describe mathematically the realistic geometry of the column packing, which is rather random and can not be created using conventional computeraided design or engineering (CAD/CAE) methods. Several modeling approaches were used to describe the performance of the processes in the considered vessels. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to describe the details of the flow in the plate microreactor and micromixer. A space-averaged mass transfer model based on Fick’s law was used to describe the exchange of the species through the gas-liquid interface in the microreactor. This model utilized data, namely the values of the interfacial area, obtained by the corresponding CFD model. A common heat transfer model was used to find the heat distribution in the micro-tube. To generate the column packing, an additional multibody dynamic model was implemented. Auxiliary simulation was carried out to determine the position and orientation of every packing element in the column. This data was then exported into a CAD system to generate desirable geometry, which could further be used for CFD simulations. The results demonstrated that the CFD model of the microreactor could predict the flow pattern well enough and agreed with experiments. The mass transfer model allowed to estimate the mass transfer coefficient. Modeling for the second case showed that the flow in the micromixer and the heat transfer in the tube could be excluded from the larger model which describes the chemical kinetics in the reactor. Results of the third case demonstrated that the auxiliary simulation could successfully generate complex random packing not only for the column but also for other similar cases.

Host suitability of weeds and forage species to root-knot nematode meloidogyne graminicola as a funcion of irrigation management

The irrigated rice production can be limited by various phytopathogenic agents, including root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.). Thus, the aim of this research was to check the host suitability of plant species most often found off-season and during rice cultivation, to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne graminicola, under two irrigation managements. Two experiments were conducted in a completely randomized design. In the first experiment seven plant species that occur in an area of rice cultivation, in fallow, off-season were evaluated. For the second experiment nine weed species infesting the irrigated rice culture were tested in rainfed and flooding conditions. The sixteen species, kept individually in pots with sterilized substrate, were inoculated with 5,000 eggs and second stage juveniles (J2) of nematode. BRS 410 IRGA rice plants inoculated with M.graminicola were used as control. Two months after inoculation, the root system of each plant was evaluated for number of galls and nematode reproduction factor. It was verified that the species of off-season of rice cultivation Sida rhombifolia, Raphanus raphanistrum, Spergula arvensis, Lotus corniculatus and Trifolium repens, and, during the cycle of rice cultivation, Aeschynomene denticulata, Leersia hexandra, are immune to nematode. The plant species off-season, Avena strigosa and Lolium multiflorum and of cultivation, Alternanthera philoxeroides, red rice, Echinochloa crusgalli, Cyperus difformis, Cyperus esculentus, Cyperus iria and Fimbristylis miliacea would behave as hosts of M.graminicola, mostly under rainfed conditions.

Levels of nutrients and grain yield of maize intercropped with signalgrass (Brachiaria) in different arrangements of plants

Competition between maize and signalgrass can economically cripple the intercropping by the reduced yield of maize and dry matter content of the forage. In seeking to define plant arrangements which make this system more efficient, this research was held with the objective of assessing the effects of interference of densities of signalgrass (Urochloa Brizantha) on nutrition and on maize grain yield. Two field experiments were conducted in a randomized block design with four replications. Treatments were arranged similarly in both experiments, in a 2 x 4 factorial design, the first factor being the dose of Nicosulfuron herbicide applied (0 and 8 g ha-1) and the second factor being the forage seeding rates (0, 2, 4 and 6 kg of seeds per hectare). The interference of signalgrass reduced foliar nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus content in maize plants intercropped with the forage. Higher values of grain yield were observed with the reduction of the spacing and the application of the recommended herbicide underdose (8 g ha-1). It was concluded that, regardless of the seeding density of U. Brizantha, reducing the maize seeding inter-rows spacing, combined with the application of an underdose of Nicosulfuron, caused a positive effect by reducing the initial forage growth, resulting in less interference of Urochloa brizantha on nutrient uptake by the maize plants and grain yield of the crop.

A priori estimation of accuracy and of the number of wells to be employed in limiting dilution assays

The use of limiting dilution assay (LDA) for assessing the frequency of responders in a cell population is a method extensively used by immunologists. A series of studies addressing the statistical method of choice in an LDA have been published. However, none of these studies has addressed the point of how many wells should be employed in a given assay. The objective of this study was to demonstrate how a researcher can predict the number of wells that should be employed in order to obtain results with a given accuracy, and, therefore, to help in choosing a better experimental design to fulfill one's expectations. We present the rationale underlying the expected relative error computation based on simple binomial distributions. A series of simulated in machina experiments were performed to test the validity of the a priori computation of expected errors, thus confirming the predictions. The step-by-step procedure of the relative error estimation is given. We also discuss the constraints under which an LDA must be performed.

Working fluid selection and design of small-scale waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles

Demand for the use of energy systems, entailing high efficiency as well as availability to harness renewable energy sources, is a key issue in order to tackling the threat of global warming and saving natural resources. Organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology has been identified as one of the most promising technologies in recovering low-grade heat sources and in harnessing renewable energy sources that cannot be efficiently utilized by means of more conventional power systems. The ORC is based on the working principle of Rankine process, but an organic working fluid is adopted in the cycle instead of steam. This thesis presents numerical and experimental results of the study on the design of small-scale ORCs. Two main applications were selected for the thesis: waste heat re- covery from small-scale diesel engines concentrating on the utilization of the exhaust gas heat and waste heat recovery in large industrial-scale engine power plants considering the utilization of both the high and low temperature heat sources. The main objective of this work was to identify suitable working fluid candidates and to study the process and turbine design methods that can be applied when power plants based on the use of non-conventional working fluids are considered. The computational work included the use of thermodynamic analysis methods and turbine design methods that were based on the use of highly accurate fluid properties. In addition, the design and loss mechanisms in supersonic ORC turbines were studied by means of computational fluid dynamics. The results indicated that the design of ORC is highly influenced by the selection of the working fluid and cycle operational conditions. The results for the turbine designs in- dicated that the working fluid selection should not be based only on the thermodynamic analysis, but requires also considerations on the turbine design. The turbines tend to be fast rotating, entailing small blade heights at the turbine rotor inlet and highly supersonic flow in the turbine flow passages, especially when power systems with low power outputs are designed. The results indicated that the ORC is a potential solution in utilizing waste heat streams both at high and low temperatures and both in micro and larger scale appli- cations.

The Arctic Ocean between Greenland and Nova Zemla and between the 60th and 82d parallel of latitude from Swedish, Danish, British, Russian and German surveys and explorations up to 1871

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

The terrestrial Gastropoda Megalobulimus abbreviatus as a useful model for nociceptive experiments: effects of morphine and naloxone on thermal avoidance behavior

We describe the behavior of the snail Megalobulimus abbreviatus upon receiving thermal stimuli and the effects of pretreatment with morphine and naloxone on behavior after a thermal stimulus, in order to establish a useful model for nociceptive experiments. Snails submitted to non-functional (22ºC) and non-thermal hot-plate stress (30ºC) only displayed exploratory behavior. However, the animals submitted to a thermal stimulus (50ºC) displayed biphasic avoidance behavior. Latency was measured from the time the animal was placed on the hot plate to the time when the animal lifted the head-foot complex 1 cm from the substrate, indicating aversive thermal behavior. Other animals were pretreated with morphine (5, 10, 20 mg/kg) or naloxone (2.5, 5.0, 7.5 mg/kg) 15 min prior to receiving a thermal stimulus (50ºC; N = 9 in each group). The results (means ± SD) showed an extremely significant difference in response latency between the group treated with 20 mg/kg morphine (63.18 ± 14.47 s) and the other experimental groups (P < 0.001). With 2.5 mg/kg (16.26 ± 3.19 s), 5.0 mg/kg (11.53 ± 1.64 s) and 7.5 mg/kg naloxone (7.38 ± 1.6 s), there was a significant, not dose-dependent decrease in latency compared to the control (33.44 ± 8.53 s) and saline groups (29.1 ± 9.91 s). No statistically significant difference was found between the naloxone-treated groups. With naloxone plus morphine, there was a significant decrease in latency when compared to all other groups (minimum 64% in the saline group and maximum 83.2% decrease in the morphine group). These results provide evidence of the involvement of endogenous opioid peptides in the control of thermal withdrawal behavior in this snail, and reveal a stereotyped and reproducible avoidance behavior for this snail species, which could be studied in other pharmacological and neurophysiological studies.

Design of a Traction Motor With Tooth-Coil Windings and Embedded Magnets

Traction motor design significantly differs from industrial machine design. The starting point is the load cycle instead of the steady-state rated operation point. The speed of the motor varies from zero to very high speeds. At low speeds, heavy overloading is used for starting, and the field-weakening region also plays an important role. Finding a suitable fieldweakening point is one of the important design targets. At the lowest speeds, a high torque output is desired, and all current reserves of the supplying converter unit are used to achieve the torque. In this paper, a 110-kW 2.5-p.u. starting torque and a maximum 2.5-p.u. speed permanent-magnet traction motor will be studied. The field-weakening point is altered by varying the number of winding turns of machine. One design is selected for prototyping. Theoretical results are verified by measurements.

Review of water electrolysis technologies and design of renewable hydrogen production systems

An electric system based on renewable energy faces challenges concerning the storage and utilization of energy due to the intermittent and seasonal nature of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar photovoltaic power productions are variable and difficult to predict, and thus electricity storage will be needed in the case of basic power production. Hydrogen’s energetic potential lies in its ability and versatility to store chemical energy, to serve as an energy carrier and as feedstock for various industries. Hydrogen is also used e.g. in the production of biofuels. The amount of energy produced during hydrogen combustion is higher than any other fuel’s on a mass basis with a higher-heating-value of 39.4 kWh/kg. However, even though hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, on Earth most hydrogen exists in molecular forms such as water. Therefore, hydrogen must be produced and there are various methods to do so. Today, the majority hydrogen comes from fossil fuels, mainly from steam methane reforming, and only about 4 % of global hydrogen comes from water electrolysis. Combination of electrolytic production of hydrogen from water and supply of renewable energy is attracting more interest due to the sustainability and the increased flexibility of the resulting energy system. The preferred option for intermittent hydrogen storage is pressurization in tanks since at ambient conditions the volumetric energy density of hydrogen is low, and pressurized tanks are efficient and affordable when the cycling rate is high. Pressurized hydrogen enables energy storage in larger capacities compared to battery technologies and additionally the energy can be stored for longer periods of time, on a time scale of months. In this thesis, the thermodynamics and electrochemistry associated with water electrolysis are described. The main water electrolysis technologies are presented with state-of-the-art specifications. Finally, a Power-to-Hydrogen infrastructure design for Lappeenranta University of Technology is presented. Laboratory setup for water electrolysis is specified and factors affecting its commissioning in Finland are presented.