The Child is father of the man: implications for the demographic transition

We propose a new theory of the demographic transition based on the evidence that body development during childhood is an important predictor of adult life expectancy. This theory is embodied in an OLG framework where fertility, longevity and education all result from individual decisions. The model displays different regimes, allowing the economy to move slowly from an initial Malthusian regime towards the Modern era. The dynamics reproduces the key features of the demographic transition, including the permanent increase in life expectancy, resulting from improvements in body development, the hump in both population growth and fertility, and a late increase in secondary educational attainments.

Prospective validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index. A clinical prognostic model for pulmonary embolism

Practice guidelines recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive pulmonary embolism (PE), but fail to specify how these low-risk patients should be identified. Using data from U.S. patients, we previously derived the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a prediction rule that risk stratifies patients with PE. We sought to validate the PESI in a European patient cohort. We prospectively validated the PESI in patients with PE diagnosed at six emergency departments in three European countries. We used baseline data for the rule's 11 prognostic variables to stratify patients into five risk classes (I-V) of increasing probability of mortality. The outcome was overall mortality at 90 days after presentation. To assess the accuracy of the PESI to predict mortality, we estimated the sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values for low- (risk classes I/II) versus higher-risk patients (risk classes III-V), and the discriminatory power using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Among 357 patients with PE, overall mortality was 5.9%, ranging from 0% in class I to 17.9% in class V. The 186 (52%) low-risk patients had an overall mortality of 1.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-3.8%) compared to 11.1% (95% CI: 6.8-16.8%) in the 171 (48%) higher-risk patients. The PESI had a high sensitivity (91%, 95% CI: 71-97%) and a negative predictive value (99%, 95% CI: 96-100%) for predicting mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.86). The PESI reliably identifies patients with PE who are at low risk of death and who are potential candidates for outpatient care. The PESI may help physicians make more rational decisions about hospitalization for patients with PE.

Memory in contracts: the experience of the EBRD (1991-2003)

The objective of this paper is to identify the role of memory as a screening device in repeated contracts with asymmetric information in financial intermediation. We use an original dataset from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We propose a simple empirical method to capture the role of memory using the client's reputation. Our results unambiguously isolate the dominant effect of memory on the bank's lending decisions over market factors in the case of established clients.

On the effect of the geographical scope of agglomeration economies on firm location

This article analyses how agglomeration economies shaped the location decisions of new manufacturing start-ups in Catalan municipalities in 2001-2005. We estimate whether the locations of new firms are spatially autocorrelated and whether this phenomenon is industry-specific. Our aim is to estimate the geographical scope of agglomeration economies on firm entries. The data set comes from a compulsory register of manufacturing establishments (REIC: Catalan Manufacturing Establishments Register). JEL classification: R1, R3 Keywords: firm location; spatial autocorrelation

Regulation of horizontal gene transfer of the catabolic island ICEclc

ICEclc is a mobile genetic element found in two copies on the chromosome of the bacterium Pseudomonas knackmussii B13. ICEclc harbors genes encoding metabolic pathways for the degradation of chlorocatechols (CLC) and 2-aminophenol (2AP). At low frequencies, ICEclc excises from the chromosome, closes into a circular DNA molecule which can transfer to another bacterium via conjugation. Once in the recipient cell, ICEclc can reintegrate into the chromosome by site-specific recombination. This thesis aimed at identifying the regulatory network underlying the decisions for ICEclc horizontal transfer (HGT). The first chapter is an introduction on integrative and conjugative elements (ICEs) more in general, of which ICEclc is one example. In particular I emphasized the current knowledge of regulation and conjugation machineries of the different classes of ICE. In the second chapter, I describe a transcriptional analysis using microarrays and other experiments to understand expression of ICEclc in exponential and stationary phase. By overlaying transcriptomic profiles with Northern hybridizations and RT- PCR data, we established a transcription map for the entire core region of ICEclc, a region assumed to encode the ICE conjugation process. We also demonstrated how transcription of the ICEclc core is maximal in stationary phase, which correlates to expression of reporter genes fused to key ICEclc promoters. In the third chapter, I present a transcriptome analysis of ICEclc in a variety of different host species, in order to explore whether there are species-specific differences. In the fourth chapter, I focus on the role of a curious ICEclc-encoded TetR-type transcriptional repressor. We find that this gene, which we name mfsR, not only controls its own expression but that of a set of genes for a putative multi-drug efflux pump (mfsABC) as well. By using a combination of biochemical and molecular biology techniques, I could show that MfsR specifically binds to operator boxes in two ICEclc promoters (PmfsR and PmfsA), inhibiting the transcription of both the mfsR and mfsABC-orf38184 operons. Although we could not detect a clear phenotype of an mfsABC deletion, we discuss the implications of pump gene reorganizations in ICEclc and close relatives. In the fifth chapter, we find that mfsR not only controls its own expression and that of the mfsABC operon, but is also indirectly controlling ICEclc transfer. Using gene deletions, microarrays, transfer assays and microscopy-based reporter fusions, we demonstrate that mfsR actually controls a small operon of three regulatory genes. The last gene of this mfsR operon, orf17162, encodes a LysR-type activator that when deleted strongly impairs ICEclc transfer. Interestingly, deletion of mfsR leads to transfer competence in almost all cells, thereby overruling the bistability process in the wild-type. In the final sixth chapter, I discuss the relevance of the present thesis and the resulting perspectives for future studies.

Swiss clinical practice guidelines on field cancerization of the skin.

Actinic keratosis (AK) affects millions of people worldwide, and its prevalence continues to increase. AK lesions are caused by chronic ultraviolet radiation exposure, and the presence of two or more AK lesions along with photodamage should raise the consideration of a diagnosis of field cancerization. Effective treatment of individual lesions as well as field cancerization is essential for good long-term outcomes. The Swiss Registry of Actinic Keratosis Treatment (REAKT) Working Group has developed clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of field cancerization in patients who present with AK. These guidelines are intended to serve as a resource for physicians as to the most appropriate treatment and management of AK and field cancerization based on current evidence and the combined practical experience of the authors. Treatment of AK and field cancerization should be driven by consideration of relevant patient, disease, and treatment factors, and appropriate treatment decisions will differ from patient to patient. Prevention measures and screening recommendations are discussed, and special considerations related to management of immunocompromised patients are provided.

Report of the Interdepartmental Working Group on Long Term Care, 2006

Report of the Interdepartmental Working Group on Long Term Care, 2006 This report was finalised by the working group at the end of 2005 and submitted to Government in January 2006. While the reportâ?Ts proposals were not formally endorsed by Government, its analysis and recommendations have informed subsequent decisions, including the Fair Deal policy on Long-Term Nursing Home Care.The principles underpinning the report formed the basis for discussions about long term care with the Social Partners prior to the new national programme negotiations leading to a clear vision articulated in Towards 2016 on a number of priority actions to support older people to participate in society in a full and meaningful way. Click here to download PDF 693kb

Joint Commissioning Plan of the Health and Social Care Board and the Public Health Agency: 2010-2011

Legislation enacted on 1 April 2009 created a new Commissioning system with the establishment of a region-wide Health and Social Care Board, including 5 Local Commissioning Groups (LCGs), and a Public Health Agency. In line with Departmental direction and guidance the objectives of the new commissioning arrangements were to: - Approach the future delivery of Health and Social Care from a region-wide perspective focused on outcomes. - Ensure local sensitivity through the creation of five Local Commissioning Groups reflective of their areas. - Give appropriate weight to the public health agenda to ensure that commissioning reflects the drive to reduce health inequalities in our society and works in partnership with others to improve health and wellbeing. In this regard the legislation signalled a new way forward which would first be expressed in a Commissioning Plan for 2010/11 and beyond. This plan outlines how the Health and Social Care Board and the Public Health Agency are approaching that task. It is our aim that this plan is straightforward and written in a manner which will encourage public engagement and understanding. We wish to show clearly how the commissioning task is to be approached and to signal the decisions necessary to ensure the maintenance of a health and social care system in Northern Ireland which responds to the population it serves.

Poots launches £18m state-of-the-art Telemonitoring NI service

Health Minister Edwin Poots today marked the roll-out of a ground-breaking hi-tech scheme which will enable more patients to monitor their health in their own homes. Following funding of £18m from the Department of Health, the newly named Centre for Connected Health and Social Care (CCHSC), part of the Public Health Agency, worked in partnership with business consortium TF3to establish the innovative Telemonitoring NI service. The service is now being delivered by the TF3 consortium in partnership with the Health and Social Care Trusts.Remote telemonitoring combines technology and services that enable patients with chronic diseases to test their vital signs such as pulse, blood pressure, body weight, temperature, blood glucose and oxygen levels at home on a daily basis. The service will now be rolled out to 3,500 patients across Northern Ireland per annum for a period of six years.Mr Poots today visited the home of Larne pensioner Michael Howard who has Chronic Pulmonary Obstructive Disorder (COPD) to hear how Telemonitoring NI has changed his life.During the visit Mr Poots said: "Chronic diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and COPD affect around three quarters of people over the age of 75. This is the generation from whom transport and mobility pose the biggest problems. The Telemonitoring NI service will allow thousands to monitor their vital signs without having to leave their own homes."It means that patients are able to understand and manage their condition better. Many say it has improved their confidence and given them peace of mind. With a health professional monitoring each patient's health on a daily basis, there is less need for hospital admission. Carers are also better informed with the pro-active support provided. It means earlier intervention in, and the prevention of, deterioration of condition, acute illness and hospital admissions."Telemonitoring NI is an excellent example of how the Health Service can innovateusing modern technology to deliver a better service for our patients."Eddie Ritson, Programme Director of CCHSC, PHA, said: "The roll-out of Telemonitoring NI represents a significant step towards providing quality care for the growing number of people with heart disease, stroke, some respiratory conditions and diabetes who want to live at home while having their conditions safely managed."This new service will give people more information which combined with timely advice will enable patients to gain more control over their health while supporting them to live independently in their own homes for longer."A patient will take their vital sign measurements at home, usually on a daily basis. and these will automatically be transmited to the Tf3 system. The resulting readings are monitored centrally by a healthcare professional working in the Tf3 triage team. If the patient's readings show signs of deterioration to an unacceptable level, they will be contacted by phone by a nurse working in a central team and if appropriate a healthcare professional in the patient's local Trust will be alerted to enable them to take appropriate action."Families and carers will also benefit from the reassurance that chronic health conditions are being closely monitored on an ongoing basis. The information collected through the service can also be used by doctors, nurses and patients in making decisions on how individual cases should be managed. "Using the service, Mr Howard, 71, who has emphysema - a long-term, progressive disease of the lungs that primarily causes shortness of breath - monitors his vital signs using the new technology every weekday morning. The information is monitored centrally and if readings show signs of deterioration to an unacceptable level, Mr Howard's local healthcare professional is alerted."Taking my readings is such a simple process but one that gives me huge benefits as it is an early warning system to me and also for the specialist nurses in charge of my care. Without the remote telemonitoring I would be running back and forward to the GPs' surgery all the time to have things checked out," he explained."Having my signs monitored by a nurse means any changes in my condition are dealt with immediately and this has prevented me from being admitted to hospital - in the past I've had to spend six days in hospital any time I'm admitted with a chest infection."The telemonitoring is not only reassuring for me, it also gives me more control over managing my own condition and as a result I have less upheaval in my life, and I'm less of a cost to the health care system. Most importantly, it gives me peace of mind and one less thing to worry about at my age."Patients seeking further information about the new telemonitoring service should contact their healthcare professional.

Evolution of life history traits in a natural population of the shrew Crocidura russula

Abstract Life history traits encompass all the decisions concerning fitness an individual is faced with during his life. The study of these traits is crucial to understand the factors shaping the biology of living organisms. Up until now, most of the information on the evolution of life history traits comes from laboratory studies. While these studies are interesting to test the effect of specific parameters, their conclusions are difficult to extrapolate to natural populations. Investigating the evolution of life history traits in natural populations is of great interest. This may be tricky because it requires information on reproduction, survival and morphology of individuals. Mark-recapture methods allow most of this information to be obtained. However, when direct observations of a species are not possible due to its ecology, indirect methods must be used to infer lifetime reproductive success. In this case, molecular markers are particularly helpful in assessing the genetic relationships between individuals and allow the construction of a pedigree. This thesis focuses on a natural population of a small insectivorous mammal, the greater white-toothed shrew, Crocidura russula. Because of its hidden lifestyle, the two complementary techniques mentioned above were combined to gather information on this population. The data were used to explore diverse aspects of evolutionary biology. We demonstrated that the high genetic variance displayed by the species was not maintained by its mating system because this shrew was less monogamous than previously thought. The large genetic diversity was most likely promoted by gene flow from the neighborhood. Dispersal was thus a central topic in this thesis. We showed that dispersal was not driven by inbreeding avoidance. In addition, we did not find any inbreeding depression in the population. Dispersal was promoted by a high number of vacant territories in the population for both sexes, meaning that territory acquisition played an important role in driving dispersal. Moreover, dispersal propensity was shown to have a genetic basis and, once achieved, to have no effect on individual fitness. Body mass was found to be a life history trait strongly influenced by sexual and viability selection in both sexes. Larger individuals had higher access to reproduction through territory acquisition and defense than lighter ones. By contrast, intermediate size individuals were favored by viability selection presumably because of ecological constraints and metabolic costs. Finally, we demonstrated that the majority of the life history traits in our shrew population has the potential to evolve because they maintained substantial amounts of additive genetic variance. Nonetheless, life history traits had no significant heritability due to their high level of nonadditive or environmental variance. Résumé Les traits d'histoire de vie comprennent toutes les décisions auxquelles un individu est confronté au cours de sa vie et qui concernent sa valeur adaptative. L'étude de ces traits est cruciale pour comprendre les facteurs qui façonnent la biologie des êtres vivants. Jusqu'à ce jour, la majorité des informations sur l'évolution des traits d'histoire de vie provient d'études réalisées en laboratoire. Alors que ces études sont intéressantes pour tester l'effet de paramètres spécifiques, leurs conclusions sont difficilement extrapolables aux populations naturelles. Il est particulièrement intéressant d'étudier l'évolution des traits d'histoire de vie dans des populations naturelles. Toutefois, ces études peuvent se révéler difficiles parce qu'elles requièrent des informations sur la reproduction, la survie et la morphologie des individus. Des méthodes de marquage-recapture permettent d'obtenir ces informations. Cependant, lorsque l'écologie de l'espèce rend les obervations directes impossibles, des méthodes indirectes doivent être utilisées pour obtenir le succès reproducteur des individus. Dans ce cas, les marqueurs moléculaires sont particulièrement utiles pour évaluer les relations génétiques entre individus et permettre la construction d'un pedigree. Cette thèse porte sur une population naturelle d'un petit mammifère insectivore, la musaraigne musette, Crocidura russula. Parce que cette espèce présente un mode de vie souterrain, les deux techniques complémentaires mentionnées ci-dessus ont été combinées pour acquérir les informations nécessaires. Les données ont été utilisées pour explorer divers aspects de biologie evolutive. Nous avons montré que la grande quantité de variance génétique trouvée chez cette espèce n'est pas maintenue par son système d'appariement. Celle-ci s'est en effet avérée être moins monogame que ce qui était admis jusqu'ici. Sa grande diversité génétique est plutôt entretenue par le flux de gènes provenant du voisinage. La dispersion a donc été un sujet phare dans cette thèse. Nous avons montré qu'elle n'est pas provoquée par un évitement de la consanguinité et nous n'avons pas trouvé de dépression de consanguité dans notre population. L'acquisition d'un territoire joue par contre un rôle important dans la dispersion. En outre, la dispersion possède une base génétique chez cette espèce. De plus, une fois qu'ils ont dispersé, les individus n'ont pas une valeur adaptative differente d'individus philopatriques. Le poids s'est avéré être un trait d'histoire de vie fortement influencé par la sélection sexuelle et de viabilité chez les deux sexes. Les gros individus ont accès à la reproduction parce qu'ils acquièrent et défendent un territoire plus facilement que les plus légers. Au contraire, les individus de taille intermédiaire sont favorisés par la sélection de viabilité, certainement à cause de contraintes écologiques et de coûts métaboliques. Finalement, nous avons montré que la majorité des traits d'histoire de vie dans notre population a le potentiel d'évoluer parce qu'elle maintient des quantités considérables de variance génétique additive. Néanmoins, l'héritabilité de ces traits d'histoire de vie n'est pas significative à cause de la grande quantité de variance non-additive ou environmentale associée à ces traits.

The utility of the polymerase chain reaction assay for aetiologic definition of unspecified bacterial meningitis cases

Most patients with acute suppurative meningitis are otherwise healthy individuals with regard to immune mechanisms against invasive bacterial disease. This medical emergency is among the most dramatic and potentially ravaging diseases that affect humans, particularly young children. The illness often strikes suddenly, and can either result in death or leave the survivors with significant neurological dysfunctions. The demonstration of a bacterial aetiology is necessary for decisions regarding treatment and prophylaxis. Conventional bacteriological methods frequently fail to identify an agent, as a result of administration of antibiotics or delayed lumbar punctures. We investigated the major aetiologic sources of unspecified bacterial meningitis cases (G00.9, ISCD-10) by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based identification of Neisseria meningitidis (crgA), Streptococcus pneumoniae (ply) and Haemophilus influenzae (bexA) in cerebrospinal fluid samples. The multiplex PCR detected N. meningitidis in 92%, S. pneumoniae in 4% and H. influenzae in 1% of the 192 clinical samples assayed; 3% were negative for all three DNA targets. Bacterial DNA detection was found to be a valuable adjunct to enhance bacterial meningitis surveillance when the yield of specimens by culture is reduced. The implementation of PCR assays as a diagnostic procedure in Public Health Laboratories is perceived to be a significant advance in the investigation of bacterial meningitis.

Validation of the instability shoulder index score in a multicenter reliability study in 114 consecutive cases.

BACKGROUND: Anterior shoulder stabilization surgery with the arthroscopic Bankart procedure can have a high recurrence rate in certain patients. Identifying these patients to modify outcomes has become a focal point of research. PURPOSE: The Instability Shoulder Index Score (ISIS) was developed to predict the success of arthroscopic Bankart repair. Scores range from 0 to 10, with higher scores predicting a higher risk of recurrence after stabilization. The interobserver reliability of the score is not known. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: This is a prospective multicenter (North America and Europe) study of patients suffering from shoulder instability and waiting for stabilization surgery. Five pairs of independent evaluators were asked to score patient instability severity with the ISIS. Patients also completed functional scores (Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index [WOSI], Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand-short version [QuickDASH], and Walch-Duplay test). Data on age, sex, number of dislocations, and type of surgery were collected. The test-retest method and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC: >0.75 = good, >0.85 = very good, and >0.9 = excellent) were used for analysis. RESULTS: A total of 114 patients with anterior shoulder instability were included, of whom 89 (78%) were men. The mean age was 28 years. The ISIS was very reliable, with an ICC of 0.933. The mean number of dislocations per patient was higher in patients who had an ISIS of ≥6 (25 vs 14; P = .05). Patients who underwent more complex arthroscopic procedures such as Hill-Sachs remplissage or open Latarjet had higher preoperative ISIS outcomes, with a mean score of 4.8 versus 3.4, respectively (P = .002). There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, with Pearson correlations all >0.05 (WOSI = 0.39; QuickDASH = 0.97; Walch-Duplay = 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our results show that the ISIS is reliable when used in a multicenter study with anterior traumatic instability populations. There was no correlation between the ISIS and the quality-of-life questionnaires, but surgical decisions reflected its increased use.

Automatic self-configuration of the logical network using distributed software agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation. The proposed system is completely distributed and automates the mechanisms for adapting the logical network to the offered load. The system is able to manage dynamically a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switched path network in MPLS or GMPLS. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS) which make the decisions of when and how to change a logical path. Despite the lack of a centralised global network view, results show that MAS manages the network resources effectively, reducing the connection blocking probability and, therefore, achieving better utilisation of network resources. We also include details of its architecture and implementation

Current situation and perspectives regarding human Chagas disease in midwestern of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Recognising the importance of Chagas disease in Brazil, Bambuí set up epidemiological surveillance for Chagas disease in 1974 and was the first municipality to do so. To ascertain the current epidemiology of Chagas disease in this municipality, 1.782 blood samples from the general population were analysed; 7.7% of samples were found to be seropositive for Chagas disease. A strong positive correlation between increasing age and Chagas disease was evident in both genders, with the highest prevalence in individuals aged over 60 years. Clinically, the cardiodigestive form of Chagas disease was the most common in these samples. These data confirm the interruption of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission, in parallel with a still important residual morbidity of Chagas disease in the county, thus supporting political decisions that will prioritise epidemiological surveillance and medical treatment of Chagas disease in the coming years.

Perspectives on the green construction of the new European Energy Policy

The EU has been one of the main actors involved in the construction process of an international climate change regime, adopting it as an identity sign in the international arena. This activism has reverted in the European political agenda and in the one of its Members States. Therefore, climate change has become a driver for the EU growing participation in energy policy and for its governance evolution. In this context, much attention has been paid to the climate and energy policies integration agreed after the 2007 spring European Council. Apparently, this decision meant a decisive step towards the incorporation of the environmental variable in the energy policy-making. Moreover, the Action Plan [2007-2009] “Energy Policy for Europe” outlined priority actions in a variety of energy-related areas, implying the new European Energy Policy commencement. Against this background, there is still much left to understand about its formulation and its further development. Rooted on the Environmental Policy Integration approach, this paper traces the increasing proximity between environment and energy policies in order to understand the green contribution to the European Energy Policy construction.