Balancing the number and size of sites: An economic approach to the optimal design of cluster samples

The design of randomized controlled trials entails decisions that have economic as well as statistical implications. In particular, the choice of an individual or cluster randomization design may affect the cost of achieving the desired level of power, other things being equal. Furthermore, if cluster randomization is chosen, the researcher must decide how to balance the number of clusters, or sites, and the size of each site. This article investigates these interrelated statistical and economic issues. Its principal purpose is to elucidate the statistical and economic trade-offs to assist researchers to employ randomized controlled trials that have desired economic, as well as statistical, properties. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Análise do nível de estresse baseada em sinais de eletroencefalografia e de condutância da pele

O estresse pode afetar qualquer pessoa, independente de idade, sexo ou etnia. O organismo humano o utiliza como uma resposta adaptativa frente a situações diversas, as quais requeiram alguma adaptação do organismo para que possa enfrentar tal situação. Dependendo do estímulo estressor, pode ser gerado no indivíduo desgastes físico, mental ou emocional, no entanto, o estresse não representa necessariamente algo ruim ou patológico; este é um mecanismo de adaptação vital para a sobrevivência da espécie humana. Porém, o número de pessoas que são afetadas de forma negativa pelo estresse tem crescido imensamente nas últimas décadas. Pesquisas destacam que nos Estados Unidos cerca de 60% a 90% dos atendimentos médicos estão relacionados de alguma maneira com o estresse, enquanto que no Brasil aproximadamente 80% da população sofre de estresse, sendo que desses, 30% encontram-se na fase mais crítica, a chamada fase de exaustão. Tendo em vista que a principal forma de identificação de estresse ainda é realizada através do uso de questionário de autorrelato. O presente estudo apresenta como contribuição uma metodologia de análise do nível de estresse baseada na variação da condutância galvânica da pele e de sinais de eletroencefalografia, sendo utilizados como parâmetros a assimetria do ritmo alfa, assim como a razão entre os ritmos beta e alfa no córtex frontal e pré-frontal. Para a gravação dos sinais de EEG foi utilizado um dispositivo portátil, com eletrodos especificamente situados nas posições aF3, F3, F4 e aF4, de acordo com o Sistema Internacional 10/20 de posicionamento de eletrodos. Os participantes deste estudo são Bombeiros Militares da 1ª Cia de Vitória-ES. Foram utilizadas três classes de estímulos emocionais positivos, calmos e negativos, através da utilização de imagens pertencentes ao banco de dados IAPS (International Affective Picture System). Os resultados de acurácia obtidos através de um classificador SVM (Support Vector Machine) chegam a 88,24% para classe de estímulos positivos, 84,09% para classe calma e de 92,86% para os estímulos negativos. Deste modo, esta pesquisa apresenta uma combinação de parâmetros que podem ser aferidos com equipamentos de baixo custo, e fornecem condições de diferenciar estímulos estressantes, podendo assim, ser utilizada para auxiliar no treinamento de profissionais da área de urgência e emergência.

Perfil dos servidores da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo com empréstimo consignado

O crédito consignado é uma modalidade de empréstimo cujo valor da parcela incide sobre o salário do devedor. Com alto índice de adesão nos últimos anos, é o meio de acesso ao crédito mais comum entre os servidores públicos, pelas baixas taxas de juros, entre outros atrativos, o que contribui para expor a risco seus vencimentos com dívidas. Buscando atender ao objetivo principal de identificar se características do perfil demográfico dos servidores ativos da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo (UFES) estão relacionadas ao comprometimento de seus rendimentos com empréstimos consignados, foi realizada uma pesquisa de abordagem quantitativa, utilizando dados cadastrais e financeiros do ano de 2013 destes servidores, obtidos no banco de dados institucional e através da aplicação de questionários, dos quais totalizaram 210 tidos como válidos. Todas as informações foram tratadas por meio de recursos estatísticos, como análise descritiva dos dados, tabelas de contingências com interpretação do valor do qui-quadrado e regressão logística. Os resultados indicam que as variáveis escolaridade, renda, número de dependentes e gênero estão associadas ao comprometimento da renda com empréstimos consignados e que os homens, apesar de aparecerem em maior número entre os que aderem a esse tipo de empréstimo, comprometem menos seus rendimentos com ele, quando comparados às mulheres. Indivíduos do gênero feminino, com menor nível de escolaridade e renda mais baixa foram os mais propensos a adquirirem empréstimos descontados em folha. Por fim, apesar das análises apontarem que apenas a ausência de educação financeira não explica o alto comprometimento da renda com consignado, muitos dos entrevistados afirmaram não dominar o tema e se sentirem despreparados para administrarem suas finanças pessoais. Nesse sentido, o plano de intervenção proposto no objetivo e descrito ao final da pesquisa, sugere que a instituição invista na educação financeira dos servidores; preste apoio psicológico aos sobreendividados e proíba o estímulo ao consumo no ambiente de trabalho.

Indicadores de Ciência, Tecnologia & Inovação : análise da produção científica e tecnológica da área de conhecimento em Engenharia Civil na Base de Dados da Web of Science

Esta dissertação trata da análise da produção científica e tecnológica internacional e brasileira na área de conhecimento Engenharia Civil, por meio de indicadores bibliométricos. A área Engenharia Civil foi escolhida em razão da sua relevância para o desenvolvimento econômico do país. No entanto, em termos absolutos e relativos, está entre os setores tecnologicamente mais atrasados da economia. A bibliometria é uma disciplina com alcance multidisciplinar que estuda o uso e os aspectos quantitativos da produção científica registrada. Os indicadores de produção científica são objeto de análise de várias áreas do conhecimento, tanto para o planejamento e a execução de políticas públicas de vários setores quanto para maior conhecimento da comunidade científica sobre o sistema em que está inserida. A metodologia utilizada para a elaboração deste estudo descritivo de caráter exploratório foi a análise documental e bibliométrica, baseada em dados das publicações científicas, no período de 1970 a 2012, e tecnológicas, no período de 2001 a 2012, da área Engenharia Civil, indexadas nas bases de dados Science Citattion Index Expanded (SCI); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI); Conference Proceedings Citation Index (CPCI) e da Derwent Innovations Index (DII), que compõem a base de dados multidisciplinar da Web of Sicence (WoS). As informações foram qualificadas e quantificadas com o auxílio do software bibliométrico VantagePoint®. Os resultados obtidos confirmaram o baixo número de publicações científicas e tecnológicas na área de conhecimento Engenharia Civil de autores filiados a instituições de ensino e pesquisa brasileiras quando comparados aos dos países industrializados. Existe um conjunto de fortes condicionantes que ultrapassam o poder de decisão e de influência da academia, dificultando e limitando a disseminação das pesquisas e patentes brasileiras relacionadas a fatores de caráter sistêmico e cultural. A possibilidade de análise de indicadores de produção científica e tecnológica na Engenharia Civil contribui para criar políticas que, se utilizadas por agências de fomento, podem subsidiar investimentos mais fundamentados por parte dos governos e da iniciativa privada, a exemplo do que é feito por outros setores industriais.

Turkey's Accession to the European Union in terms of impact on the EU's security and defense policies: potential and drawbacks

This study explores the impact of Turkey's likely entry in the European Union (EU) in terms of the EU's foreign, security and defense policies. It reviews Turkish capabilities, namely its military capabilities, which could provide the EU with valuable defense assets. There are differences related to Turkey's relations with the EU, which have increasingly spilled over into the NATO, hindering the development of cooperation over crisis management operations. The article then delves in the implications of Turkey's strategic geographical location to EU policies. It reviews how far the EU and Turkey may have convergent interests in some of the neighboring regions, especially in the Middle East.

Qualifound – a modular tool developed for quality improvement in foundries

Purpose – Castings defects are usually easy to characterize, but to eradicate them can be a difficult task. In many cases, defects are caused by the combined effect of different factors, whose identification is often difficult. Besides, the real non-quality costs are usually unknown, and even neglected. This paper aims to describe the development of a modular tool for quality improvement in foundries, and its main objective is to present the application potential and the foundry process areas that are covered and taken into account. Design/methodology/approach – The integrated model was conceived as an expert system, designated Qualifound, which performs both qualitative and quantitative analyses. For the qualitative analyses mode, the nomenclature and the description of defects are based on the classification suggested by the International Committee of the Foundry Technical Association. Thus, a database of defects was established, enabling one to associate the defects with the relevant process operations and the identification of their possible causes. The quantitative analysis mode deals with the number of produced and rejected castings and includes the calculation of the non-quality costs. Findings – The validation of Qualifound was carried out in a Portuguese foundry, whose quality system had been certified according to the ISO 9000 standards. Qualifound was used in every management area and it was concluded that the application had the required technological requisites to provide the necessary information for the foundry management to improve process quality. Originality/value – The paper presents a successful application of an informatics tool on quality improvement in foundries.

Identification of 'Ubá' mango tree zygotic and nucellar seedlings using ISSR markers

Polyembryonic seeds are characterized by the development of over one embryo in the same seed, which can be zygotic and nucellar. The objective of this work was to identify the genetic origin, whether zygotic or nucellar, of seedlings of polyembryonic seeds of 'Ubá' mango tree using ISSR markers, and relating them with the vigor of the seedlings. Thus, mangos were harvested in Visconde do Rio Branco (accession 102) and Ubá (accessions 112, 138, 152 and 159), whose seeds were germinated in plastic trays filled with washed sand. Fifty days after sowing, seedlings from five seeds of each one of the accessions 102, 112, 138, 159 and from 10 seeds of the accession 152, were analyzed. These sseedlings were characterized and evaluated for plant height, stem circumference and mass of fresh aerial part and the most vigorous seedling was the one displaying at least two of these traits higher than the other seedlings from seed. Leaves were collected for genomic DNA extraction, which was amplified using seven ISSR primers previously selected based on the amplification profile and considering the number and resolution of fragments. Zygotic seedlings were found in 18 seeds, which were the most vigorous in six seeds. The results evidenced the existence of genetic variability in orchards using seedlings grown from seeds, because the farmer usually uses the most vigorous ones, assuming that this is of nucellar origin. These results also indicate that the most vigorous seedling are not always nucellar, inasmuch as of 20% of the total seeds evaluated, the zygotic seedling was the most vigorous.

Computer-aided recognition of dental implants in X-ray images

Dental implant recognition in patients without available records is a time-consuming and not straightforward task. The traditional method is a complete user-dependent process, where the expert compares a 2D X-ray image of the dental implant with a generic database. Due to the high number of implants available and the similarity between them, automatic/semi-automatic frameworks to aide implant model detection are essential. In this study, a novel computer-aided framework for dental implant recognition is suggested. The proposed method relies on image processing concepts, namely: (i) a segmentation strategy for semi-automatic implant delineation; and (ii) a machine learning approach for implant model recognition. Although the segmentation technique is the main focus of the current study, preliminary details of the machine learning approach are also reported. Two different scenarios are used to validate the framework: (1) comparison of the semi-automatic contours against implant’s manual contours of 125 X-ray images; and (2) classification of 11 known implants using a large reference database of 601 implants. Regarding experiment 1, 0.97±0.01, 2.24±0.85 pixels and 11.12±6 pixels of dice metric, mean absolute distance and Hausdorff distance were obtained, respectively. In experiment 2, 91% of the implants were successfully recognized while reducing the reference database to 5% of its original size. Overall, the segmentation technique achieved accurate implant contours. Although the preliminary classification results prove the concept of the current work, more features and an extended database should be used in a future work.

Sistema de Informação Geográfica: uma arma estratégica para o Database Marketing

Os Sistemas de Informações Geográficas (SIG) tornaram-se disponíveis para uso em computadores de mesa, sendo extremamente adaptáveis para as atividades de marketing de relacionamento. Uma característica desses sistemas é que permitem uma análise de dados de forma praticamente inviável com outras ferramentas. A sua utilização depende da existência de mapas e dados possivelmente caros e difíceis de obter. No Brasil, seu uso vai popularizar-se nos próximos dois anos.

Hedonic analysis of cell phones sold with post-paid service plans in Brazil

The aim of this paper is to analyze the determining factors for the pricing of handsets sold with service plans, using the hedonic price method. This was undertaken by building a database comprising 48 handset models, under nine different service plans, over a period of 53 weeks in 2008, and resulted in 27 different attributes and a total number of nearly 300,000 data registers. The results suggest that the value of monthly subscriptions and calling minutes are important to explain the prices of handsets. Furthermore, both the physical volume and number of megapixels of a camera had an effect on the prices. The bigger the handset, the cheaper it becomes, and the more megapixels a camera phone has, the more expensive it becomes. Additionally, it was found that in 2008 Brazilian phone companies were subsidizing enabled data connection handsets.

Effect of the number of shells on the pressure and energy of two-dimensional free bubble clusters

We have performed Surface Evolver simulations of two-dimensional hexagonal bubble clusters consisting of a central bubble of area lambda surrounded by s shells or layers of bubbles of unit area. Clusters of up to twenty layers have been simulated, with lambda varying between 0.01 and 100. In monodisperse clusters (i.e., for lambda = 1) [M.A. Fortes, F Morgan, M. Fatima Vaz, Philos. Mag. Lett. 87 (2007) 561] both the average pressure of the entire Cluster and the pressure in the central bubble are decreasing functions of s and approach 0.9306 for very large s, which is the pressure in a bubble of an infinite monodisperse honeycomb foam. Here we address the effect of changing the central bubble area lambda. For small lambda the pressure in the central bubble and the average pressure were both found to decrease with s, as in monodisperse clusters. However, for large,, the pressure in the central bubble and the average pressure increase with s. The average pressure of large clusters was found to be independent of lambda and to approach 0.9306 asymptotically. We have also determined the cluster surface energies given by the equation of equilibrium for the total energy in terms of the area and the pressure in each bubble. When the pressures in the bubbles are not available, an approximate equation derived by Vaz et al. [M. Fatima Vaz, M.A. Fortes, F. Graner, Philos. Mag. Lett. 82 (2002) 575] was shown to provide good estimations for the cluster energy provided the bubble area distribution is narrow. This approach does not take cluster topology into account. Using this approximate equation, we find a good correlation between Surface Evolver Simulations and the estimated Values of energies and pressures. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic linkage in household survey on hospital care usage

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.