Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

A correlation sensitivity analysis of non-life underwriting risk in solvency capital requirement estimation

This paper analyses the impact of using different correlation assumptions between lines of business when estimating the risk-based capital reserve, the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR), under Solvency II regulations. A case study is presented and the SCR is calculated according to the Standard Model approach. Alternatively, the requirement is then calculated using an Internal Model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the net underwriting result at a one-year horizon, with copulas being used to model the dependence between lines of business. To address the impact of these model assumptions on the SCR we conduct a sensitivity analysis. We examine changes in the correlation matrix between lines of business and address the choice of copulas. Drawing on aggregate historical data from the Spanish non-life insurance market between 2000 and 2009, we conclude that modifications of the correlation and dependence assumptions have a significant impact on SCR estimation.

Coronary MR angiography at 3T during diastole and systole

PURPOSE: To investigate the impact of end-systolic imaging on quality of right coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) in comparison to diastolic and to study the effect of RR interval variability on image quality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The right coronary artery (RCA) of 10 normal volunteers was imaged at 3T using parallel imaging (sensitivity encoding [SENSE]). Navigator-gated three-dimensional (3D) gradient echo was used three times: 1) end-systolic short acquisition (SS): 35-msec window; 2) diastolic short (DS): middiastolic acquisition using 35-msec window; and 3) diastolic long (DL): 75-msec diastolic acquisition window. Vectorcardiogram (VCG) data was used to analyze RR variability. Vessel sharpness, length, and diameter were compared to each other and correlated with RR variability. Blinded qualitative image scores of the images were compared. RESULTS: Quantitative and qualitative parameters were not significantly different and showed no significant correlation with RR variability. CONCLUSION: Imaging the RCA at 3T during the end-systolic rest period using SENSE is possible without significant detrimental effect on image quality. Breaking away from the standard of imaging only during diastole can potentially improve image quality in tachycardic patients or used for simultaneous imaging during both periods in a single scan.

. Phenotype/genotype correlation associated with a novel nonsense Glu20stop mutation in the Rp2 gene in a three-generation family with x-linked retinitis pigmentosa

Purpose: To assess the phenotype of patients in a large 3 generation Swiss family with X-linked retinitis pigmentosa (XLRP) due to a novel nonsense mutation Glu20stop in RP2 gene and to correlate with the genotype. Methods: 6 affected patients (1 male, 5 females, age range: 23 - 73 years) were assessed with a complete ophthalmologic examination. All had fundus autofluorescence images, standardised electroretinography, Goldmann visual fields and Optical Coherence Tomography. In addition, medical records of 2 affected male patients were reviewed. Blood sample was taken for molecular analysis. Results: The male patients were severely affected at a young age with early macular involvement. The youngest 23 y old male had also high myopia and vision of less than 0.05 according to Snellen EDTRS chart bilaterally. All 5 female carriers had some degree of rod-cone dystrophy, but no macular involvement. The visual acuity was 1.0 in the younger carriers, while the 73 years old had VA of 0.5. Two females had mild myopia (range -0.75 to -2) and one had anisometropia of 3.5D, with the more severely affected eye being myopic. Three out of 5 female carriers had optic nerve drusen. Conclusions: We report a novel Glu20stop mutation in RP2 gene, which is a rare cause of XLRP. Our description of severe phenotype in male patients with high myopia and early macular atrophy confirms previous reports. Unlike previous reports, all our female carriers had RP, but not macular involvement or high myopia. The identifiable phenotype for RP2-XLRP aids in clinical diagnosis and targeted genetic screening.

Solitary fibrous tumor of the lateral ventricle: CT appearances and pathologic correlation with follow-up.

Intracranial solitary fibrous tumors are rare, and intraventricular fibrous tumors are even more unusual. We report a case of solitary fibrous tumor in the region of trigone and body of the left lateral ventricle and discuss the clinical presentation, CT characteristics, and histopathologic features with 1-year follow-up. We speculate that the tumor arose from the perivascular connective tissue of the choroid plexus.

Obesity markers and estimated 10-year fatal cardiovascular risk in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: There is an ongoing debate on which obesity marker better predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD). In this study, the relationships between obesity markers and high (>5%) 10-year risk of fatal CVD were assessed. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cross-sectional study was conducted including 3047 women and 2689 men aged 35-75years. Body fat percentage was assessed by tetrapolar bioimpedance. CVD risk was assessed using the SCORE risk function and gender- and age-specific cut points for body fat were derived. The diagnostic accuracy of each obesity marker was evaluated through receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis. In men, body fat presented a higher correlation (r=0.31) with 10-year CVD risk than waist/hip ratio (WHR, r=0.22), waist (r=0.22) or BMI (r=0.19); the corresponding values in women were 0.18, 0.15, 0.11 and 0.05, respectively (all p<0.05). In both genders, body fat showed the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC): in men, the AUC (95% confidence interval) were 76.0 (73.8-78.2), 67.3 (64.6-69.9), 65.8 (63.1-68.5) and 60.6 (57.9-63.5) for body fat, WHR, waist and BMI, respectively. In women, the corresponding values were 72.3 (69.2-75.3), 66.6 (63.1-70.2), 64.1 (60.6-67.6) and 58.8 (55.2-62.4). The use of the body fat percentage criterion enabled the capture of three times more subjects with high CVD risk than the BMI criterion, and almost twice as much as the WHR criterion. CONCLUSION: Obesity defined by body fat percentage is more related with 10-year risk of fatal CVD than obesity markers based on WHR, waist or BMI.

MR spectroscopy of the human brain with enhanced signal intensity at ultrashort echo times on a clinical platform at 3T and 7T.

Recently, the spin-echo full-intensity acquired localized (SPECIAL) spectroscopy technique was proposed to unite the advantages of short TEs on the order of milliseconds (ms) with full sensitivity and applied to in vivo rat brain. In the present study, SPECIAL was adapted and optimized for use on a clinical platform at 3T and 7T by combining interleaved water suppression (WS) and outer volume saturation (OVS), optimized sequence timing, and improved shimming using FASTMAP. High-quality single voxel spectra of human brain were acquired at TEs below or equal to 6 ms on a clinical 3T and 7T system for six volunteers. Narrow linewidths (6.6 +/- 0.6 Hz at 3T and 12.1 +/- 1.0 Hz at 7T for water) and the high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the artifact-free spectra enabled the quantification of a neurochemical profile consisting of 18 metabolites with Cramér-Rao lower bounds (CRLBs) below 20% at both field strengths. The enhanced sensitivity and increased spectral resolution at 7T compared to 3T allowed a two-fold reduction in scan time, an increased precision of quantification for 12 metabolites, and the additional quantification of lactate with CRLB below 20%. Improved sensitivity at 7T was also demonstrated by a 1.7-fold increase in average SNR (= peak height/root mean square [RMS]-of-noise) per unit-time.

Ambulatory measurement of ankle kinetics for clinical applications.

This study aimed to design and validate the measurement of ankle kinetics (force, moment, and power) during consecutive gait cycles and in the field using an ambulatory system. An ambulatory system consisting of plantar pressure insole and inertial sensors (3D gyroscopes and 3D accelerometers) on foot and shank was used. To test this system, 12 patients and 10 healthy elderly subjects wore shoes embedding this system and walked many times across a gait lab including a force-plate surrounded by seven cameras considered as the reference system. Then, the participants walked two 50-meter trials where only the ambulatory system was used. Ankle force components and sagittal moment of ankle measured by ambulatory system showed correlation coefficient (R) and normalized RMS error (NRMSE) of more than 0.94 and less than 13% in comparison with the references system for both patients and healthy subjects. Transverse moment of ankle and ankle power showed R>0.85 and NRMSE<23%. These parameters also showed high repeatability (CMC>0.7). In contrast, the ankle coronal moment of ankle demonstrated high error and lower repeatability. Except for ankle coronal moment, the kinetic features obtained by the ambulatory system could distinguish the patients with ankle osteoarthritis from healthy subjects when measured in 50-meter trials. The proposed ambulatory system can be easily accessible in most clinics and could assess main ankle kinetics quantities with acceptable error and repeatability for clinical evaluations. This system is therefore suggested for field measurement in clinical applications.

Multiplex real-time PCR for the diagnosis of malaria: correlation with microscopy.

Malaria is generally diagnosed by microscopy and rapid antigen testing. Molecular methods become more widely used. In the present study, the contribution of a quantitative multiplex malaria PCR was investigated. We assessed: (i) the agreement between PCR-based identification and microscopy and (ii) the correlation between the parasite load as determined by quantitative PCR and by microscopy. For 83 patients positive by microscopy for Plasmodium spp., the first EDTA-blood sample was tested by multiplex PCR to confirm smear-based species identification. Parasite load was assessed daily using both microscopy and PCR. Among the 83 patients tested, one was positive by microscopy only and 82 were positive by microscopy and PCR. Agreement between microscopy and PCR for the identification at the species level was 89% (73/82). Six of the nine discordant results corresponded to co-infections by two or three species and were attributed to inaccurate morphological identification of mixed cases. The parasite load generally decreased rapidly after treatment had been started, with similar decay curves being obtained using both microscopy and PCR. Our PCR proved especially useful for identifying mixed infections. The quantification obtained by PCR closely correlated with microscopy-based quantification and could be useful for monitoring treatment efficacy, at least in clinical trials.

Beurling-Landau densities of weighted Fekete sets and correlation kernel estimates

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Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Lack of Correlation between Seminal and Plasma HIV-1 Viral Loads is Associated with CD4T Cell Depletion in Therapy-naïve HIV-1+ Patients

The present study was conducted to investigate a possible correlation between plasma (PVL) and seminal viral load (SVL) on treatment-naïve HIV-1-infected patients in Vitória, ES, Brazil. We also evaluated whether the progressive immunosuppression associated with HIV disease (as evidenced by declining CD4 T cell counts) has any impact on the correlation between PVL and SVL HIV-1. Viral load on paired blood and semen samples from 56 consecutive treatment-naïve patients were evaluated and compared to CD4 cell counts. Viral load and T cell counts (cells/µl) were determined by NASBA and by flow cytometry, respectively. Overall, a strong positive correlation between PVL and SVL (rho = 0.438, p = 0.001) was observed. However, when patients were grouped according to their CD4 counts, this correlation was only significant among patients with CD4 counts > 200 cells/µl. Results presented here demonstrate the existence of a strong correlation between PVL and SVL on patients with CD4 cell counts > 200 cells/µl, suggesting that this association may correlate with disease progression.

Imaging Properties of MS Lesions Correlate with Attention Deficits in Early Multiple Sclerosis

Introduction: Cognitive impairment affects 40-65% of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients, often since early stages of the disease (relapsing remitting MS, RRMS). Frequently affected functions are memory, attention or executive abilities but the most sensitive measure of cognitive deficits in early MS is the information processing speed (Amato, 2008). MRI has been extensively exploited to investigate the substrate of cognitive dysfunction in MS but the underlying physiopathological mechanisms remain unclear. White matter lesion load, whole-brain atrophy and cortical lesions' number play a role but correlations are in some cases modest (Rovaris, 2006; Calabrese, 2009). In this study, we aimed at characterizing and correlating the T1 relaxation times of cortical and sub-cortical lesions with cognitive deficits detected by neuropsychological tests in a group of very early RR MS patients. Methods: Ten female patients with very early RRMS (age: 31.6 ±4.7y; disease duration: 3.8 ±1.9y; EDSS disability score: 1.8 ±0.4) and 10 age- and gender-matched healthy volunteers (mean age: 31.2 ±5.8y) were included in the study. All participants underwent the following neuropsychological tests: Rao's Brief Repeatable Battery of Neuropsychological tests (BRB-N), Stockings of Cambridge, Trail Making Test (TMT, part A and B), Boston Naming Test, Hooper Visual Organization Test and copy of the Rey-Osterrieth Complex Figure. Within 2 weeks from neuropsychological assessment, participants underwent brain MRI at 3T (Magnetom Trio a Tim System, Siemens, Germany) using a 32-channel head coil. The imaging protocol included 3D sequences with 1x1x1.2 mm3 resolution and 256x256x160 matrix, except for axial 2D-FLAIR: -DIR (T2-weighted, suppressing both WM and CSF; Pouwels, 2006) -MPRAGE (T1-weighted; Mugler, 1991) -MP2RAGE (T1-weighted with T1 maps; Marques, 2010) -FLAIR SPACE (only for patient 4-10, T2-weighted; Mugler, 2001) -2D Axial FLAIR (0.9x0.9x2.5 mm3, 256x256x44 matrix). Lesions were identified by one experienced neurologist and radiologist using all contrasts, manually contoured and assigned to regional locations (cortical or sub-cortical). Lesion number, volume and T1 relaxation time were calculated for lesions in each contrast and in a merged mask representing the union of the lesions from all contrasts. T1 relaxation times of lesions were normalized with the mean T1 value in corresponding control regions of the healthy subjects. Statistical analysis was performed using GraphPad InStat software. Cognitive scores were compared between patients and controls with paired t-tests; p values ≤ 0.05 were considered significant. Spearmann correlation tests were performed between the cognitive tests, which differed significantly between patients and controls, and lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) T1 relaxation time iv) disease duration and v) years of study. Results: Cortical and sub-cortical lesions count, T1 values and volume are reported in Table 1 (A and B). All early RRMS patients showed cortical lesions (CLs) and the majority consisted of CLs type I (lesions with a cortical component extending to the sub-cortical tissue). The rest of cortical lesions were characterized as type II (intra-cortical lesions). No type III/IV lesions (large sub-pial lesions) were detected. RRMS patients were slightly less educated (13.5±2.5y vs. 16.3±1.8y of study, p=0.02) than the controls. Signs of cortical dysfunction (i.e. impaired learning, language, visuo-spatial skills or gnosis) were rare in all patients. However, patients showed on average lower scores on measures of visual attention and information processing speed (TMT-part A: p=0.01; TMT-part B: p=0.006; PASAT-included in the BRB-N: p=0.04). The T1 relaxation values of CLs type I negatively correlated with the TMT-part A score (r=0.78, p<0.01). The correlations of TMT-part B score and PASAT score with T1 relaxation time of lesions as well and the correlation between TMT-part A, TMT-part B and PASAT score with lesions' i) number ii) volume iii) disease duration and iv) years of study did not reach significance. In order to preclude possible influences from partial volume effects on the T1 values, the correlation between lesion volume and T1 value of CLs type I was calculated; no correlation was found, suggesting that partial volume effects did not affect the statistics. Conclusions: The present pilot study reports for the first time the presence and the T1 characteristics at 3 T of cortical lesions in very early RRMS (< 6 y disease duration). It also shows that CLS type I represents the most frequent cortical lesion type in this cohort of RRMS patients. In addition, it reveals a negative correlation between the attentional test TMT-part A and the T1 properties of cortical lesions type I. In other words, lower attention deficits are concomitant with longer T1-relaxation time in cortical lesions. In respect to this last finding, it could be speculated that long relaxation time correspond to a certain degree of tissue loss that is enough to stimulate compensatory mechanisms. This hypothesis is in line with previous fMRI studies showing functional compensatory mechanisms to help maintaining normal or sub-normal attention performances in RR MS patients (Penner, 2003).

Correlation of male genital filaments and female spermathecal ducts in New World sand flies of the Lutzomyia intermedia species complex (Diptera: Psychodidae, Phlebotominae)

The lengths of the male genital filaments and female spermathecal ducts were measured in phlebotomine sand flies of the Lutzomyia intermedia species complex and the ratios between these characters calculated. Ratios for L. intermedia s. s. from Northeast vs Southeast Brazil (Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais), Espírito Santo/Minas Gerais vs Rio de Janeiro/São Paulo and L. intermedia vs L. neivai were significantly different at P < 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 respectively when compared using ANOVA. The spermathecal ducts and genital filaments of L. intermedia were significantly longer than those of L. neivai (P < 0.01) and could be used to differentiate these species. The taxonomic and biological significance of these differences is discussed.