Effects of data characteristics on the results of reserve selection algorithms

We tested the effects of four data characteristics on the results of reserve selection algorithms. The data characteristics were nestedness of features (land types in this case), rarity of features, size variation of sites (potential reserves) and size of data sets (numbers of sites and features). We manipulated data sets to produce three levels, with replication, of each of these data characteristics while holding the other three characteristics constant. We then used an optimizing algorithm and three heuristic algorithms to select sites to solve several reservation problems. We measured efficiency as the number or total area of selected sites, indicating the relative cost of a reserve system. Higher nestedness increased the efficiency of all algorithms (reduced the total cost of new reserves). Higher rarity reduced the efficiency of all algorithms (increased the total cost of new reserves). More variation in site size increased the efficiency of all algorithms expressed in terms of total area of selected sites. We measured the suboptimality of heuristic algorithms as the percentage increase of their results over optimal (minimum possible) results. Suboptimality is a measure of the reliability of heuristics as indicative costing analyses. Higher rarity reduced the suboptimality of heuristics (increased their reliability) and there is some evidence that more size variation did the same for the total area of selected sites. We discuss the implications of these results for the use of reserve selection algorithms as indicative and real-world planning tools.

Socio-economic, migrant and geographic differentials in coronary heart disease occurrence in New South Wales

Objective: This study examines the variation in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) by socio-economic status (SES), country of birth (COB) and geography (urban/rural) in the total population of New South Wales (Australia) in 1991-95. Method: CHD deaths and AMI are from complete enumerations of deaths and hospital admissions, respectively; and population denominators are from census information. Data are examined separately by sex, and comparisons of SES groups (based on municipalities), COB and region are analysed using Poisson regression, after adjustment for age. Results: The study identified higher risk for AMI admissions and CHD mortality in lower SES populations with significant linear trends, for both sexes, adjusted for age, region and COB. According to the population attributable fractions (PAF), 23-41% of the risk of CHD occurrence is due to SES lower than the highest quartile. The higher age-adjusted risk for CHD occurrence in rural and remote populations for both sexes, compared with urban communities, was lessened by adjustment for COB, and all but abolished when also adjusted for SES. COB analysis indicated significantly lower age-adjusted AMI admissions and CHD mortality compared with the Australian-born, Conclusions: Higher risks for CHD in rural populations compared with the capital city (Sydney) are due, in part, to lower SES, lesser migrant composition. Implications: Strategies for reducing CHD differentials should consider demographic factors and the fundamental need to reduce socio-economic inequalities, as well as targeting appropriate prevention measures.

Hypoxia stimulates cerebral blood flow in the estuarine crocodile (Crocodylus porosus)

The effect of N-2 respiration on cerebral blood flow (CBF) velocity on the dorsal surface of cerebellum was examined in the estuarine crocodile, Crocodylus porosus, using epi-illumination microscopy. Twelve minutes of N-2 respiration resulted in a 126% increase in CBF velocity. N-2 respiration had no effect on blood pressure, indicating an underlying cerebral vasodilation. In addition, heart rate increased significantly. Systemic injections of aminophylline and the NO synthase (NOS) inhibitor nitro-L-arginine (L-NA) did not affect the hypoxia induced increase in CBF. We conclude that C. porosus responds to hypoxia with adenosine and nitric oxide (NO) independent cerebral vasodilation, and that this is likely to be a mechanism protecting the brain from energy deficiency during prolonged dives. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Targeting local tissues by transdermal application: Understanding drug physicochemical properties that best exploit protein binding and blood flow effects

The targeting of topically applied drug molecules into tissues below a site of application requires an understanding of the complex interrelationships between the drug, its formulation, the barrier properties of the skin, and the physiological processes occurring below the skin that are responsible for drug clearance from the site, tissue, and/or systemic distribution and eventual elimination. There is still a certain amount of controversy over the ability of topically applied drugs to penetrate into deeper tissues by diffusion or whether this occurs by redistribution in the systemic circulation. The major focus of our work in this area has been in determining how changes in drug structure and physicochemical properties, such as protein binding and lipophilicity, affect drug clearance into the local dermal microcirculation and lymphatics, as well as subsequent distribution into deeper tissues below an application site. The present study outlines our recent thinking on the drug molecule optimal physical attributes, in terms of plasma and tissue partitioning behaviour, that offer the greatest potential for deep tissue targeting. Drug Dev. Res. 46:309-315, 1999. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A numerical study of pore-fluid, thermal and mass flow iu fluid-saturated porous rock basins

We present a numerical methodology for the study of convective pore-fluid, thermal and mass flow in fluid-saturated porous rock basins. lit particular, we investigate the occurrence and distribution pattern of temperature gradient driven convective pore-fluid flow and hydrocarbon transport in the Australian North West Shelf basin. The related numerical results have demonstrated that: (1) The finite element method combined with the progressive asymptotic approach procedure is a useful tool for dealing with temperature gradient driven pore-fluid flow and mass transport in fluid-saturated hydrothermal basins; (2) Convective pore-fluid flow generally becomes focused in more permeable layers, especially when the layers are thick enough to accommodate the appropriate convective cells; (3) Large dislocation of strata has a significant influence off the distribution patterns of convective pore;fluid flow, thermal flow and hydrocarbon transport in the North West Shelf basin; (4) As a direct consequence of the formation of convective pore-fluid cells, the hydrocarbon concentration is highly localized in the range bounded by two major faults in the basin.

Finite element analysis of flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems

We use theoretical and numerical methods to investigate the general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems respectively. Analytical solutions have been rigorously derived for the pore-fluid velocity, stream function and excess pore-fluid pressure near a circular lens in a hydrodynamic system. These analytical solutions provide not only a better understanding of the physics behind the problem, but also a valuable benchmark solution for validating any numerical method. Since a geological lens is surrounded by a medium of large extent in nature and the finite element method is efficient at modelling only media of finite size, the determination of the size of the computational domain of a finite element model, which is often overlooked by numerical analysts, is very important in order to ensure both the efficiency of the method and the accuracy of the numerical solution obtained. To highlight this issue, we use the derived analytical solutions to deduce a rigorous mathematical formula for designing the computational domain size of a finite element model. The proposed mathematical formula has indicated that, no matter how fine the mesh or how high the order of elements, the desired accuracy of a finite element solution for pore-fluid flow near a geological lens cannot be achieved unless the size of the finite element model is determined appropriately. Once the finite element computational model has been appropriately designed and validated in a hydrodynamic system, it is used to examine general pore-fluid flow patterns near geological lenses in hydrothermal systems. Some interesting conclusions on the behaviour of geological lenses in hydrodynamic and hydrothermal systems have been reached through the analytical and numerical analyses carried out in this paper.

Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Increasing the efficiency of solute leaching: impacts of flow interruption with drainage of the "preferential flow paths"

Most soils contain preferential flow paths that can impact on solute mobility. Solutes can move rapidly down the preferential flow paths with high pore-water velocities, but can be held in the less permeable region of the soil matrix with low pore-water velocities, thereby reducing the efficiency of leaching. In this study, we conducted leaching experiments with interruption of the flow and drainage of the main flow paths to assess the efficiency of this type of leaching. We compared our experimental results to a simple analytical model, which predicts the influence of the variations in concentration gradients within a single spherical aggregate (SSA) surrounded by preferential flow paths on leaching. We used large (length: 300 mm, diameter: 216 mm) undisturbed field soil cores from two contrasting soil types. To carry out intermittent leaching experiments, the field soil cores were first saturated with tracer solution (CaBr2), and background solution (CaCl2) was applied to mimic a leaching event. The cores were then drained at 25- to 30-cm suction to empty the main flow paths to mimic a dry period during which solutes could redistribute within the undrained region. We also conducted continuous leaching experiments to assess the impact of the dry periods on the efficiency of leaching. The flow interruptions with drainage enhanced leaching by 10-20% for our soils, which was consistent with the model's prediction, given an optimised equivalent aggregate radius for each soil. This parameter quantifies the time scales that characterise diffusion within the undrained region of the soil, and allows us to calculate the duration of the leaching events and interruption periods that would lead to more efficient leaching. Application of these methodologies will aid development of strategies for improving management of chemicals in soils, needed in managing salts in soils, in improving fertiliser efficiency, and in reclaiming contaminated soils. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Strain-dependent fluid flow defined through rock mass classification schemes

Strain-dependent hydraulic conductivities are uniquely defined by an environmental factor, representing applied normal and shear strains, combined with intrinsic material parameters representing mass and component deformation moduli, initial conductivities, and mass structure. The components representing mass moduli and structure are defined in terms of RQD (rock quality designation) and RMR (rock mass rating) to represent the response of a whole spectrum of rock masses, varying from highly fractured (crushed) rock to intact rock. These two empirical parameters determine the hydraulic response of a fractured medium to the induced-deformations The constitutive relations are verified against available published data and applied to study one-dimensional, strain-dependent fluid flow. Analytical results indicate that both normal and shear strains exert a significant influence on the processes of fluid flow and that the magnitude of this influence is regulated by the values of RQD and RMR.

Numerical modelling of double diffusion driven reactive flow transport in deformable fluid-saturated porous media with particular consideration of temperature-dependent chemical reaction rates

Numerical methods ave used to solve double diffusion driven reactive flow transport problems in deformable fluid-saturated porous media. in particular, thp temperature dependent reaction rate in the non-equilibrium chemical reactions is considered. A general numerical solution method, which is a combination of the finite difference method in FLAG and the finite element method in FIDAP, to solve the fully coupled problem involving material deformation, pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and species transport/chemical reactions in deformable fluid-saturated porous media has been developed The coupled problem is divided into two subproblems which are solved interactively until the convergence requirement is met. Owing to the approximate nature of the numerical method, if is essential to justify the numerical solutions through some kind of theoretical analysis. This has been highlighted in this paper The related numerical results, which are justified by the theoretical analysis, have demonstrated that the proposed solution method is useful for and applicable to a wide range of fully coupled problems in the field of science and engineering.

Heat flow for Yang-Mills-Higgs fields, part I

The Yang-Mills-Higgs field generalizes the Yang-Mills field. The authors establish the local existence and uniqueness of the weak solution to the heat flow for the Yang-Mills-Higgs field in a vector bundle over a compact Riemannian 4-manifold, and show that the weak solution is gauge-equivalent to a smooth solution and there are at most finite singularities at the maximum existing time.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.