Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

Speech motor control in fluent and dysfluent speech production of an individual with apraxia of speech and Broca’s aphasia

Apraxia of speech (AOS) is typically described as a motor-speech disorder with clinically well-defined symptoms, but without a clear understanding of the underlying problems in motor control. A number of studies have compared the speech of subjects with AOS to the fluent speech of controls, but only a few have included speech movement data and if so, this was primarily restricted to the study of single articulators. If AOS reflects a basic neuromotor dysfunction, this should somehow be evident in the production of both dysfluent and perceptually fluent speech. The current study compared motor control strategies for the production of perceptually fluent speech between a young woman with apraxia of speech (AOS) and Broca’s aphasia and a group of age-matched control speakers using concepts and tools from articulation-based theories. In addition, to examine the potential role of specific movement variables on gestural coordination, a second part of this study involved a comparison of fluent and dysfluent speech samples from the speaker with AOS. Movement data from the lips, jaw and tongue were acquired using the AG-100 EMMA system during the reiterated production of multisyllabic nonwords. The findings indicated that although in general kinematic parameters of fluent speech were similar in the subject with AOS and Broca’s aphasia to those of the age-matched controls, speech task-related differences were observed in upper lip movements and lip coordination. The comparison between fluent and dysfluent speech characteristics suggested that fluent speech was achieved through the use of specific motor control strategies, highlighting the potential association between the stability of coordinative patterns and movement range, as described in Coordination Dynamics theory.

ERP correlates of shared control mechanisms involved in saccade preparation and in covert attention

We investigated whether attention shifts and eye movement preparation are mediated by shared control mechanisms, as claimed by the premotor theory of attention. ERPs were recorded in three tasks where directional cues presented at the beginning of each trial instructed participants to direct their attention to the cued side without eye movements (Covert task), to prepare an eye movement in the cued direction without attention shifts (Saccade task) or both (Combined task). A peripheral visual Go/Nogo stimulus that was presented 800 ms after cue onset signalled whether responses had to be executed or withheld. Lateralised ERP components triggered during the cue–target interval, which are assumed to reflect preparatory control mechanisms that mediate attentional orienting, were very similar across tasks. They were also present in the Saccade task, which was designed to discourage any concomitant covert attention shifts. These results support the hypothesis that saccade preparation and attentional orienting are implemented by common control structures. There were however systematic differences in the impact of eye movement programming and covert attention on ERPs triggered in response to visual stimuli at cued versus uncued locations. It is concluded that, although the preparatory processes underlying saccade programming and covert attentional orienting may be based on common mechanisms, they nevertheless differ in their spatially specific effects on visual information processing.

Inhibitory control in memory: evidence for negative priming in free recall

Cognitive control mechanisms—such as inhibition—decrease the likelihood that goal-directed activity is ceded to irrelevant events. Here, we use the action of auditory distraction to show how retrieval from episodic long-term memory is affected by competitor inhibition. Typically, a sequence of to-be-ignored spoken distracters drawn from the same semantic category as a list of visually-presented to-be-recalled items impairs free recall performance. In line with competitor inhibition theory (Anderson, 2003), free recall was worse for items on a probe trial if they were a repeat of distracter items presented during the previous, prime, trial (Experiment 1). This effect was only produced when the distracters were dominant members of the same category as the to-be-recalled items on the prime. For prime trials in which distracters were low-dominant members of the to-be-remembered item category or were unrelated to that category—and hence not strong competitors for retrieval—positive priming was found (Experiments 2 & 3). These results are discussed in terms of inhibitory approaches to negative priming and memory retrieval.

Ideological dominance in recreation provision: towards a theory of Local Authority response to Compulsory Competitive Tendering in Britain

This paper considers how the delivery of public leisure services in Britain has been affected by the imposition of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT) on the management of facilities. In particular, it focuses on the changing relationship between the central and local levels of government, theorising a tripartite local response to CCT, incorporating local statism, post-Fordist rejection of CCT and post- Fordist compliance with the aims of the central administration. The paper then discusses the actual implementation of CCT, relating the theorised responses to those witnessed in practice. This results in the delineation of a continuum of stances, ranging from pragmatic forms of local statism, such as the protection of the former direct labour force, to centrist attempts to combine the ethics of socialism with the mechanics of the market, to an outright rejection of state organisation and control. The paper concludes that although legitimate attempts have been made to protect local services, the outcome of the CCT process has undoubtedly been the regeneration of public leisure provision away from its service roots towards a market model of provision.

Field manual 3-24 and the heritage of counterinsurgency theory

The Counterinsurgency Manual FM 3-24 has been accused of being over-dependent on the counterinsurgency 'classics' Galula and Thompson. But comparison reveals that it is different in spirit. Galula and Thompson seek practical control; the Manual seeks to build 'legitimacy'. Its concept of legitimacy is superficially Weberian, but owes more to the writings of the American Max Manwaring. The Manual presupposes that a rights-based legal order can (other things being equal) be made to be cross-culturally attractive; 'effective governance' by itself can build legitimacy. The fusion of its methods with an ideology creates unrealistic criteria for success. Its weaknesses suggest a level of incapacity to think politically that will, in time, result in further failures.

Modelling QoS of a pervasive MVNO/M2M using semi-group theory

This paper aims to develop a mathematical model based on semi-group theory, which allows to improve quality of service (QoS), including the reduction of the carbon path, in a pervasive environment of a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO). This paper generalise an interrelationship Machine to Machine (M2M) mathematical model, based on semi-group theory. This paper demonstrates that using available technology and with a solid mathematical model, is possible to streamline relationships between building agents, to control pervasive spaces so as to reduce the impact in carbon footprint through the reduction of GHG.

Location, control and innovation in knowledge-intensive industries

The rising share of intangibles in economies worldwide highlights the crucial role of knowledge-intensive and creative industries in current and future wealth generation. The recognition of this trend has led to intense competition in these industries. At the micro-level, firms from both advanced and emerging economies are globally dispersing their value chains to control costs and leverage capabilities. The geography of innovation is the outcome of a dynamic process whereby firms from emerging economies strive to catch-up with advanced economy competitors, creating strong pressures for continued innovation. However, two distinct strategies can be discerned with regard to the control of the value chain. A vertical integration strategy emphasizes taking advantage of ‘linkage economies’ whereby controlling multiple value chain activities enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of each one of them. In contrast, a specialization strategy focuses on identifying and controlling the creative heart of the value chain, while outsourcing all other activities. The global mobile handset industry is used as the template to illustrate the theory.

Bio-inspired autonomous visual vertical control of a quadrotor UAV

Near ground maneuvers, such as hover, approach and landing, are key elements of autonomy in unmanned aerial vehicles. Such maneuvers have been tackled conventionally by measuring or estimating the velocity and the height above the ground often using ultrasonic or laser range finders. Near ground maneuvers are naturally mastered by flying birds and insects as objects below may be of interest for food or shelter. These animals perform such maneuvers efficiently using only the available vision and vestibular sensory information. In this paper, the time-to-contact (Tau) theory, which conceptualizes the visual strategy with which many species are believed to approach objects, is presented as a solution for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) relative ground distance control. The paper shows how such an approach can be visually guided without knowledge of height and velocity relative to the ground. A control scheme that implements the Tau strategy is developed employing only visual information from a monocular camera and an inertial measurement unit. To achieve reliable visual information at a high rate, a novel filtering system is proposed to complement the control system. The proposed system is implemented on-board an experimental quadrotor UAV and shown not only to successfully land and approach ground, but also to enable the user to choose the dynamic characteristics of the approach. The methods presented in this paper are applicable to both aerial and space autonomous vehicles.

Thermospheric Control of the Auroral Source of O+Ions for the Magnetosphere

Linear theory, model ion-density profiles and MSIS neutral thermospheric predictions are used to investigate the stability of the auroral, topside ionosphere to oxygen cyclotron waves: variations of the critical height, above which the plasma is unstable, with field-aligned current, thermal ion density and exospheric temperature are considered. In addition, probabilities are assessed that interactions with neutral atomic gases prevent O+ ions from escaping into the magnetosphere after they have been transversely accelerated by these waves. The two studies are combined to give a rough estimate of the total O+ escape flux as a function of the field-aligned current density for an assumed rise in the perpendicular ion temperature. Charge exchange with neutral oxygen, not hydrogen, is shown to be the principle limitation to the escape of O+ ions, which occurs when the waves are driven unstable down to low altitudes. It is found that the largest observed field-aligned current densities can heat a maximum of about 5×1014 O+ ions m−2 to a threshold above which they are subsequently able to escape into the magnetosphere in the following 500s. Averaged over this period, this would constitute a flux of 1012 m−2 s−1 and in steady-state the peak outflow would then be limited to about 1013 m−2 s−1 by frictional drag on thermal O+ at lower altitudes. Maximum escape is at low plasma density unless the O+ scale height is very large. The outflow decreases with decreasing field-aligned current density and, to a lesser extent, with increasing exospheric temperature. Upward flowing ion events are evaluated as a source of O+ ions for the magnetosphere and as an explanation of the observed solar cycle variation of ring current O+ abundance.

Bioinspired autonomous visual vertical control of a quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle

Near-ground maneuvers, such as hover, approach, and landing, are key elements of autonomy in unmanned aerial vehicles. Such maneuvers have been tackled conventionally by measuring or estimating the velocity and the height above the ground, often using ultrasonic or laser range finders. Near-ground maneuvers are naturally mastered by flying birds and insects because objects below may be of interest for food or shelter. These animals perform such maneuvers efficiently using only the available vision and vestibular sensory information. In this paper, the time-tocontact (tau) theory, which conceptualizes the visual strategy with which many species are believed to approach objects, is presented as a solution for relative ground distance control for unmanned aerial vehicles. The paper shows how such an approach can be visually guided without knowledge of height and velocity relative to the ground. A control scheme that implements the tau strategy is developed employing only visual information from a monocular camera and an inertial measurement unit. To achieve reliable visual information at a high rate, a novel filtering system is proposed to complement the control system. The proposed system is implemented onboard an experimental quadrotor unmannedaerial vehicle and is shown to not only successfully land and approach ground, but also to enable the user to choose the dynamic characteristics of the approach. The methods presented in this paper are applicable to both aerial and space autonomous vehicles.

A structuration theory perspective on the institutional change in Higher Education sector

Budgeting system has been traditionally viewed as a control mechanism rather than a communication tool to facilitate the institutionalisation of organisational change. A good budgeting system not only reflects the organisational reality but also socially constructs the reality. This paper uses the structuration perspective to understand budget-related behaviour in a UK research-intensive university and especially, study the role of budgeting system in achieving organisational sustainability. Giddens’ structuration theory offers a valuable framework for the study of the duality of structure and emphasises on the structural properties of social systems. Based on the semi-structured interviews with top management and budget holders, it is concluded that in this specific context, budgeting system may place a significant role in establishing and legitimising institutional change.

Structural parameters of polyacrylamide hydrogels obtained by the Equilibrium Swelling Theory

In this paper, the synthesis and structural characterization of a series of polyacrylamide hydrogels with different degrees of reticulation are reported. Although the Equilibrium Swelling Theory was recognized as a simple and reliable tool for the determination of structural hydrogels network parameters like equilibrium degree of swelling, cross-link ratio and mesh size, this is the first application of this methodology for polyacrylamide hydrogels. By changing the total monomer content in the synthesis solution (%T) from 5 to 30%, at a fixed value of cross-linker content in the total monomer amount (%C) of 5%, the final parameter obtained, the mesh size, can be tuned from 2 to 0.3 nm. It was also possible to change the mesh size (0.19-0.35) by varying %C from 5 to 12% (at %T = 20%). Scanning Electron Microscopy images for the most different formulations are shown and corroborate data obtained from the theory. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.