Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Constitution, Diversification and Normalisation of a Health Problem: Organising the Fight against AIDS in Switzerland (1984-2005)

The article traces the formation, diversification and normalization of the AIDS cause in Switzerland. Particular emphasis is placed on interactions between the medical field, public authorities and associative space, the latter being understood as the place where individual and collective actors compete to define the cause. The authors argue that the major phases in the structuring of the struggle, the pace of state intervention and the creation of a multi-organizational field, can only be understood if one adopts a 'configurational perspective' attentive to the manner in which, in a given context and under the effect of particular constraints, key actors strategically interact and contribute to transforming their environment and their chances of reaching their goals. This approach takes into account the changing socio-biological characteristics of those who have committed themselves to the cause. In turn, internal movement divisions about how to respond to the epidemic as well as the changing perceptions of the disease have modified the opportunities for commitment, encouraging certain individual kinds of people and excluding others.

Specific inhibition of HCN channels slows rhythm differently in atria, ventricle and outflow tract and stabilizes conduction in the anoxic-reoxygenated embryonic heart model.

The hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated (HCN) channels are expressed in pacemaker cells very early during cardiogenesis. This work aimed at determining to what extent these channels are implicated in the electromechanical disturbances induced by a transient oxygen lack which may occur in utero. Spontaneously beating hearts or isolated ventricles and outflow tracts dissected from 4-day-old chick embryos were exposed to a selective inhibitor of HCN channels (ivabradine 0.1-10microM) to establish a dose-response relationship. The effects of ivabradine on electrocardiogram, excitation-contraction coupling and contractility of hearts submitted to anoxia (30min) and reoxygenation (60min) were also determined. The distribution of the predominant channel isoform, HCN4, was established in atria, ventricle and outflow tract by immunoblotting. Intrinsic beating rate of atria, ventricle and outflow tract was 164+/-22 (n=10), 78+/-24 (n=8) and 40+/-12bpm (n=23, mean+/-SD), respectively. In the whole heart, ivabradine (0.3microM) slowed the firing rate of atria by 16% and stabilized PR interval. These effects persisted throughout anoxia-reoxygenation, whereas the variations of QT duration, excitation-contraction coupling and contractility, as well as the types and duration of arrhythmias were not altered. Ivabradine (10microM) reduced the intrinsic rate of atria and isolated ventricle by 27% and 52%, respectively, whereas it abolished activity of the isolated outflow tract. Protein expression of HCN4 channels was higher in atria and ventricle than in the outflow tract. Thus, HCN channels are specifically distributed and control finely atrial, ventricular and outflow tract pacemakers as well as conduction in the embryonic heart under normoxia and throughout anoxia-reoxygenation.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

J2 effect and elliptic inclined periodic orbits in the collision three-body problem

The existence of a new class of inclined periodic orbits of the collision restricted three-body problem is shown. The symmetric periodic solutions found are perturbations of elliptic kepler orbits and they exist only for special values of the inclination and are related to the motion of a satellite around an oblate planet

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

The problem of nitrogen disposal in the obese

Amino-N is preserved because of the scarcity and nutritional importance of protein. Excretion requires its conversion to ammonia, later incorporated into urea. Under conditions of excess dietary energy, the body cannot easily dispose of the excess amino-N against the evolutively adapted schemes that prevent its wastage; thus ammonia and glutamine formation (and urea excretion) are decreased. High lipid (and energy) availability limits the utilisation of glucose, and high glucose spares the production of ammonium from amino acids, limiting the synthesis of glutamine and its utilisation by the intestine and kidney. The amino acid composition of the diet affects the production of ammonium depending on its composition and the individual amino acid catabolic pathways. Surplus amino acids enhance protein synthesis and growth, and the synthesis of non-protein-N-containing compounds. But these outlets are not enough; consequently, less-conventional mechanisms are activated, such as increased synthesis of NO∙ followed by higher nitrite (and nitrate) excretion and changes in the microbiota. There is also a significant production of N(2) gas, through unknown mechanisms. Health consequences of amino-N surplus are difficult to fathom because of the sparse data available, but it can be speculated that the effects may be negative, largely because the fundamental N homeostasis is stretched out of normalcy, forcing the N removal through pathways unprepared for that task. The unreliable results of hyperproteic diets, and part of the dysregulation found in the metabolic syndrome may be an unwanted consequence of this N disposal conflict.

Functional and morphological evidence for a ventricular conduction system in zebrafish and Xenopus hearts.

Zebrafish and Xenopus have become popular model organisms for studying vertebrate development of many organ systems, including the heart. However, it is not clear whether the single ventricular hearts of these species possess any equivalent of the specialized ventricular conduction system found in higher vertebrates. Isolated hearts of adult zebrafish (Danio rerio) and African toads (Xenopus laevis) were stained with voltage-sensitive dye and optically mapped in spontaneous and paced rhythms followed by histological examination focusing on myocardial continuity between the atrium and the ventricle. Spread of the excitation wave through the atria was uniform with average activation times of 20 +/- 2 and 50 +/- 2 ms for zebrafish and Xenopus toads, respectively. After a delay of 47 +/- 8 and 414 +/- 16 ms, the ventricle became activated first in the apical region. Ectopic ventricular activation was propagated significantly more slowly (total ventricular activation times: 24 +/- 3 vs. 14 +/- 2 ms in zebrafish and 74 +/- 14 vs. 35 +/- 9 ms in Xenopus). Although we did not observe any histologically defined tracts of specialized conduction cells within the ventricle, there were trabecular bands with prominent polysialic acid-neural cell adhesion molecule staining forming direct myocardial continuity between the atrioventricular canal and the apex of the ventricle; i.e., the site of the epicardial breakthrough. We thus conclude that these hearts are able to achieve the apex-to-base ventricular activation pattern observed in higher vertebrates in the apparent absence of differentiated conduction fascicles, suggesting that the ventricular trabeculae serve as a functional equivalent of the His-Purkinje system.

Generating a raster map presentation of a forest resource by solving a transportation problem

Abstract

An Improved Hybrid Model for the Generic Hoist Scheduling Problem

Peer-reviewed