Gaussian processes for regression

The Bayesian analysis of neural networks is difficult because a simple prior over weights implies a complex prior distribution over functions. In this paper we investigate the use of Gaussian process priors over functions, which permit the predictive Bayesian analysis for fixed values of hyperparameters to be carried out exactly using matrix operations. Two methods, using optimization and averaging (via Hybrid Monte Carlo) over hyperparameters have been tested on a number of challenging problems and have produced excellent results.

Understanding policy implementation processes as self-organizing systems

Implementation studies and related research in organizational theory can be enhanced by drawing on the field of complex systems to understand better and, as a consequence, more successfully manage change. This article reinterprets data previously published in the British Journal of Management to reveal a new contribution, that policy implementation processes should be understood as a self-organizing system in which adaptive abilities are extremely important for stakeholders. In other words, national policy is reinterpreted at the local level, with each local organization uniquely mixing elements of national policy with their own requirements making policy implementation unpredictable and more sketchy. The original article explained different paces and directions of change in terms of traditional management processes: leadership, politics, implementation and vision. By reinterpreting the data, it is possible to reveal that deeper level processes, which are more emergent, are also at work influencing change, which the authors label possibility space. Implications for theory, policy and practice are identified.

Lipoidal species in ocular spoilation processes

Tear component deposition onto contact lenses is termed `spoilation' and occurs due to the interaction of synthetic polymers with their biological fluid environment. Spoilation phenomena alter the physico-chemical properties of hydrophilic contact lenses, diminishing the optical properties of the lens; causing discomfort and complications for the wearer. Eventually these alterations render the lens unwearable. The primary aim of this interdisciplinary study was to develop analytical techniques capable of analysing the minute quantities of biological deposition involved, in particular the lipid fraction. Prior to this work such techniques were unavailable for single contact lenses. It is envisaged that these investigations will further the understanding of this biological interfacial conversion. Two main analytical techniques were developed: a high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) technique and fluorescence spectrofluorimetry. The HPLC method allows analysis of a single contact lens and provided previously unavailable valuable information about variations in the lipid profiles of deposited contact lenses and patient tear films. Fluorescence spectrophotofluorimetry is a sensitive non-destructive technique for observing changes in the fluorescence intensity of biological components on contact lenses. The progression and deposition of tear materials can be monitored and assessed for both in vivo and in vitro spoiled lenses using this technique. An improved in vitro model which is comparable to tears and chemically mimics ocular spoilation was also developed. This model allows the controlled study of extrinsic factors and hydrogel compositions. These studies show that unsaturated tear lipids, probably unsaturated fatty acids, are involved in the interfacial conversion of hydrogel lenses, rendering them incompatible with the ocular microenvironment. Lipid interaction with the lens surface then facilitates secondary deposition of other tear components. Interaction, exchange and immobilisation (by polymerisation) of the lipid layer appears to occur before the final and rapid growth of more complex, insoluble discrete deposits, sometimes called `white spots'.

Intelligent execution monitoring and error analysis in planning involving processes

An intelligent agent, operating in an external world which cannot be fully described in its internal world model, must be able to monitor the success of a previously generated plan and to respond to any errors which may have occurred. The process of error analysis requires the ability to reason in an expert fashion about time and about processes occurring in the world. Reasoning about time is needed to deal with causality. Reasoning about processes is needed since the direct effects of a plan action can be completely specified when the plan is generated, but the indirect effects cannot. For example, the action `open tap' leads with certainty to `tap open', whereas whether there will be a fluid flow and how long it might last is more difficult to predict. The majority of existing planning systems cannot handle these kinds of reasoning, thus limiting their usefulness. This thesis argues that both kinds of reasoning require a complex internal representation of the world. The use of Qualitative Process Theory and an interval-based representation of time are proposed as a representation scheme for such a world model. The planning system which was constructed has been tested on a set of realistic planning scenarios. It is shown that even simple planning problems, such as making a cup of coffee, require extensive reasoning if they are to be carried out successfully. The final Chapter concludes that the planning system described does allow the correct solution of planning problems involving complex side effects, which planners up to now have been unable to solve.

Self-attentional processes in anxiety:an experimental study

Self-attention research has demonstrated a relationship between dispositional self-focus, anxiety proneness and fear arousal. In addition, the effect of self-focus manipulations on approach-avoidance tasks involving a feared stimulus are strikingly similar to the effects obtained from manipulation of other cognitive factors such as perceived self-efficacy. A number of experiments were designed to explore the relationship between self-focused attention and ffilxiety. Data from the experiments demonstrate that self-attention influences a variety of cognitive variables which have been considered as central factors in anxiety. Concomitants of self-focus are increased awareness of physiological arousal and overestimation of such arousal, the identification of self-discrepancies, cognitive failures and performance deficits and the activation of physical threat concepts in memory. These factors are conceptualised as central in the negative evaluation of physiological arousal and coping resources in anxiety. Clinically anxious individuals typically have high scores in dispositional self-consciousness and body-consciousness. In patients suffering from generalised anxiety or panic disorders maladaptive self-focusing tendencies can be related to specific life stressors which render aspects of the self salient. An analysis of the ideational component of anxiety revealed three subcomponents; negative social ideation (worry about other people's reaction to the self), negative somatic ideation (worry about physical symptoms and health) and obsessional ideation (the experience of uncontrollable and repetitive thoughts) which were differentially associated with measures of dispositional self-focus. The frequency and content of an.xious w-orry is associated with specific self-focusing tendencies. It is proposed that the 'attentional style' of the individual is an important determinant of the nature and intensity of their affective response in a threatening situation. A self-attentional model of anxiety is proposed and the complex interaction between self-focus and other cognitive factors in anxiety such as appraisal of arousal and coping resources and perceived levels of self-efficacy is discussed. The model presents new directions for research and therapeutic intervention in anxiety.

Micromechanics of agglomerate damage processes

This thesis reports a detailed investigation of the micromechanics of agglomerate behaviour under free-fall impact, double (punch) impact and diametrical compression tests using the simulation software TRUBAL. The software is based on the discrete element method (DEM) which incorporates the Newtonian equations of motion and contact mechanics theory to model the interparticle interactions. Four agglomerates have been used: three dense (differing in interface energy and contact density) and one loose. Although the simulated agglomerates are relatively coarse-grained, the results obtained are in good agreement with laboratory test results reported in the literature. The computer simulation results show that, in all three types of test, the loose agglomerate cannot fracture as it is unable to store sufficient elastic energy. Instead, it becomes flattened for low loading-rates and shattered or crushed at higher loading-rates. In impact tests, the dense agglomerates experience only local damage at low impact velocities. Semi-brittle fracture and fragmentation are produced over a range of higher impact velocities and at very high impact velocities shattering occurs. The dense agglomerates fracture in two or three large fragments in the diametrical compression tests. Local damage at the agglomerate-platen interface always occurs prior to fracture and consists of local bond breakage (microcrack formation) and local dislocations (compaction). The fracture process is dynamic and much more complex than that suggested by continuum fracture mechanics theory. Cracks are always initiated from the contact zones and propagate towards the agglomerate centre. Fracture occurs a short time after the start of unloading when a fracture crack "selection" process takes place. The detailed investigation of the agglomerate damage processes includes an examination of the evolution of the fracture surface. Detailed comparisons of the behaviour of the same agglomerate in all three types of test are presented. The particle size distribution curves of the debris are also examined, for both free-fall and double impact tests.

The stratigraphy of the Fishguard volcanic complex and associated sediments, SW Dyfed, Wales

This thesis describes the geology of a Lower Palaeozoic terrain, situated west of the town of Fishguard, SW Dyfed, Wales. The area is dominated by the Fishguard Volcanic Complex (Upper Llanvirn), and sediments that range in age from the Middle Cambrian to the Lower Llandeilo. The successions represent an insight into sedimentation and volcanism for c. 100 Ma. along the south-western margin of the Lower Palaeozoic Welsh Basin. The stratigraphy of the sedimentary sequence has been completely revised and the existing volcanostratigraphy modified. The observed complexity of the stratigraphy is primarily the consequence of Caldedonide deformation which resulted in large scale repetition. Fold-thrust tectonics dominates the structural style of the area. Caledonide trending (NE-SW) cross-faults complicate preexisting structures. Middle Cambrian (?) sedimentation is documented by shallow marine clastics and red shales deposited within tidal - subtidal environments. Upper Cambrian sedimentation was dominated by shallow marine `storm' and `fair weather' sedimentation within a muddy shelf environment. Shallow marine conglomerates and heterolithic intertidal siliciclastics mark the onset of Ordovician sedimentation during the lower Arenig transgression. Mid-Arenig sediments reflect deposits influenced by storm, fair-weather and wave related processes in various shallow marine environments, including; shoreface, inner shelf, shoaling bar, and deltaic. Graptolitic marine shales were deposited from the upper mid-Arenig through to the lower Llandeilo; during which time sediments accumulated by pelagic processes and fine grained turbidites. The varied nature of sedimentation reflects both localised change within the depositional system and the influence of larger regional eustatic events. Ordovician subaqueous volcanic activity produced thick accumulations of lavas, pyroclastics, hydroclastics, and hyaloclastics. The majority of volcanism was effusive in nature, erupted below the Pressure Compensation Level. Basaltic volcanism was characterised by pillowed lavas and tube networks, whilst sheet-flow lavas, pillow breccias and minor hyaloclastites developed locally. Silicic volcanism was dominated by rhyolitic clastics of various affinities, although coherent silicic obsidian lavas, sheet-flow lavas and pyroclastics developed. Hypabyssal intrusives of variable composition and habit occur throughout the volcanic successions. Low-grade regional metamorphism has variably affected the area, conditions of the prehnite-pumpellyite and greenschist facies having been attained. Numerous secondary phases developed in response to the conditions imposed, which collectively indicate that P-T conditions were of low-pressure facies series in the range P= 1.2-2.0 kbars and T= 230-350oC, under an elevated geothermal gradient of 40-45oC km-1. Polymineralic cataclastites associated with Caledonide deformation indicate that tectonism and metamorphism were in part contemporaneous.

A systems and cybernetic perspective on complex problem solving

This thesis is concerned with Organisational Problem Solving. The work reflects the complexities of organisational problem situations and the eclectic approach that has been necessary to gain an understanding of the processes involved. The thesis is structured into three main parts. Part I describes the author's understanding of problems and suitable approaches. Chapter 2 identifies the Transcendental Realist (TR) view of science (Harre 1970, Bhaskar 1975) as the best general framework for identifying suitable approaches to complex organisational problems. Chapter 3 discusses the relationship between Checkland's methodology (1972) and TR. The need to generate iconic (explanatory) models of the problem situation is identified and the ability of viable system modelling to supplement the modelling stage of the methodology is explored in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 builds further on the methodology to produce an original iconic model of the methodological process. The model characterises the mechanisms of organisational problem situations as well as desirable procedural steps. The Weltanschauungen (W's) or "world views" of key actors is recognised as central to the mechanisms involved. Part II describes the experience which prompted the theoretical investigation. Chapter 6 describes the first year of the project. The success of this stage is attributed to the predominance of a single W. Chapter 7 describes the changes in the organisation which made the remaining phase of the project difficult. These difficulties are attributed to a failure to recognise the importance of differing W's. Part III revisits the theoretical and organisational issues. Chapter 8 identifies a range of techniques embodying W's which are compatible with .the framework of Part I and which might usefully supplement it. Chapter 9 characterises possible W's in the sponsoring organisation. Throughout the work, an attempt 1s made to reflect the process as well as the product of the author's leaving.

Classrooms as complex adaptive systems:a relational model

In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over time. A relational model of classrooms is proposed which focuses on the relations between different elements (physical, environmental, cognitive, social) in the classroom and on how their interaction is crucial in understanding and describing classroom action.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

The Complex Unified Evolutionary Approach to the Creation of the Multilevel Distributed Control System of a Gas-transport Company

The objects of a large-scale gas-transport company (GTC) suggest a complex unified evolutionary approach, which covers basic building concepts, up-to-date technologies, models, methods and means that are used in the phases of design, adoption, maintenance and development of the multilevel automated distributed control systems (ADCS).. As a single methodological basis of the suggested approach three basic Concepts, which contain the basic methodological principles and conceptual provisions on the creation of distributed control systems, were worked out: systems of the lower level (ACS of the technological processes based on up-to-date SCADA), of the middle level (ACS of the operative-dispatch production control based on MES-systems) and of the high level (business process control on the basis of complex automated systems ERP).

A New Class of Processes for Formalizing and Generalizing Individual-Based Models: The Semi-Semi-Markov Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K15, 60K20, 60G20,60J75, 60J80, 60J85, 60-08, 90B15.

Multiple Dipole Source Models for Scalp-Recorded Event-Related Potentials: Example from Complex Visual Processing in the Human Brain

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62P10, 92C20

Short-term wind power forecasting using Gaussian processes

Since wind has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safety and economics of wind energy utilization. In this paper, we investigate a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: one-day-ahead wind power forecasts were made with Gaussian Processes (GPs) applied to the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Firstly the wind speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP. Then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due the turbine controlling strategy, a Censored GP was used to model the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output. To validate the proposed approach, two real world datasets were used for model construction and testing. The simulation results were compared with the persistence method and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs); the proposed model achieves about 11% improvement in forecasting accuracy (Mean Absolute Error) compared to the ANN model on one dataset, and nearly 5% improvement on another.

Theological reflection at work: A phenomenological study of learning processes

Using the learning descriptions of graduates of a graduate ministry program, the mechanisms of interactions between the knowledge facets in learning processes were explored and described. The intent of the study was to explore how explicit, implicit, and emancipatory knowledge facets interacted in the learning processes at or about work. The study provided empirical research on Yang's (2003) holistic learning theory. ^ A phenomenological research design was used to explore the essence of knowledge facet interactions. I achieved epoche through the disclosure of assumptions and a written self-experience to bracket biases. A criterion based, stratified sampling strategy was used to identify participants. The sample was stratified by graduation date. The sample consisted of 11 participants and was composed primarily of married (n = 9), white, non-Hispanic (n = 10), females (n = 9), who were Roman Catholic (n = 9). Professionally, the majority of the group were teachers or professors (n = 5). ^ A semi-structured interview guide with scheduled and unscheduled probes was used. Each approximately 1-hour long interview was digitally recorded and transcribed. The transcripts were coded using a priori codes from holistic learning theory and one emergent code. The coded data were analyzed by identifying patterns, similarities, and differences under each code and then between codes. Steps to increase the trustworthiness of the study included member checks, coding checks, and thick descriptions of the data. ^ Five themes were discovered including (a) the difficulty in describing interactions between knowledge facets; (b) actual mechanisms of interactions between knowledge facets; (c) knowledge facets initiating learning and dominating learning processes; (d) the dangers of one-dimensional learning or using only one knowledge facet to learn; and (e) the role of community in learning. The interpretation confirmed, extended, and challenged holistic learning theory. Mechanisms of interaction included knowledge facets expressing, informing, changing, and guiding one another. Implications included the need for a more complex model of learning and the value of seeing spirituality in the learning process. The study raised questions for future research including exploring learning processes with people from non-Christian faith traditions or other academic disciplines and the role of spiritual identity in learning. ^