Livestock production in a changing climate : adaptation and mitigation research in Australia

Climate change presents a range of challenges for animal agriculture in Australia. Livestock production will be affected by changes in temperature and water availability through impacts on pasture and forage crop quantity and quality, feed-grain production and price, and disease and pest distributions. This paper provides an overview of these impacts and the broader effects on landscape functionality, with a focus on recent research on effects of increasing temperature, changing rainfall patterns, and increased climate variability on animal health, growth, and reproduction, including through heat stress, and potential adaptation strategies. The rate of adoption of adaptation strategies by livestock producers will depend on perceptions of the uncertainty in projected climate and regional-scale impacts and associated risk. However, management changes adopted by farmers in parts of Australia during recent extended drought and associated heatwaves, trends consistent with long-term predicted climate patterns, provide some insights into the capacity for practical adaptation strategies. Animal production systems will also be significantly affected by climate change policy and national targets to address greenhouse gas emissions, since livestock are estimated to contribute ~10% of Australia’s total emissions and 8–11% of global emissions, with additional farm emissions associated with activities such as feed production. More than two-thirds of emissions are attributed to ruminant animals. This paper discusses the challenges and opportunities facing livestock industries in Australia in adapting to and mitigating climate change. It examines the research needed to better define practical options to reduce the emissions intensity of livestock products, enhance adaptation opportunities, and support the continued contribution of animal agriculture to Australia’s economy, environment, and regional communities.

Increasing Food Production Sustainably in a Changing Climate : Understanding the Pressures and Potential

Australian agriculture is faced with the dilemma of increasing food production for a growing domestic and world population while decreasing environmental impacts and supporting the social and economic future of regional communities. The challenge for farmers is compounded by declining rates of productivity growth which have been linked to changes in climate and decreasing investment in agricultural research. The answer must lie in understanding the ecological functionality of landscapes and matching management of agricultural systems and use of natural resources to landscape capacity in a changing climate. A simplified mixed grain and livestock farm case study is used to illustrate the challenges of assessing the potential for shifts in land allocation between commodities to achieve sustainable intensification of nutrition production. This study highlights the risks associated with overly-simplistic solutions and the need for increased investment in research to inform the development of practical strategies for increasing food production in Australian agro-ecosystems while managing the impacts of climate change and addressing climate change mitigation policies.

Stakeholder pressures and climate change disclosure : Australian evidence

This paper investigates the stakeholder pressures behind corporate accountability and disclosures in relation to climate change. By means of a questionnaire survey, the study focuses on ascertaining the views of a sample of stakeholder groups such as government bodies, institutional investors, environmental NGOs, media accounting professionals, and researchers to examine their perceptions of pressures upon Australian corporations to be accountable in relation to climate change. Prior social and environmental research found that NGOs (Deegan and Blomquist, 2006; Tilt, 1994) and the media (Brown and Deegan, 1996; Islam and Deegan, 2010) were powerful stakeholder groups influencing corporate social and environmental disclosure practices. Our paper finds that along with NGOs and the media, institutional investors and regulators (governments) are equally important and powerful actors for applying pressure for corporate accountability in relation to climate change. Based on the findings of the paper, we would argue that climate change is an issue with no single stakeholder group involved, rather it is a set of stakeholder groups including regulators, institutional investors, the media, and NGOs who demand corporations to be accountable.

The population dynamics of the Galapagos Flightless Cormorant Phalacrocorax harrisi in relation to sea temperature

The Flightless Cormorant Phalacrocorax harrisi is restricted to c. 400 km of the western coastline of the Galápagos archipelago coinciding with the local occurrence of seasonal upwelling of oceanic currents. Individuals frequently make more than one breeding attempt per year, usually change mates, and when juveniles are raised, females desert them to the further care of their mates who complete the rearing alone. Here we report data from a ten-year historical study of a colony stretching c.2 km along the coast-line and representing c. 12% of the total population of the species. The number of clutches laid and juveniles fledged were linked to the occurrence of cold water in off-shore foraging grounds. Most Flightless Cormorants have attachments to local stretches of coastline several hundred metres long. However, a few birds travelled many kilometres, including between colonies, sometimes over open sea. We show that males invest more in nest-building and feeding of the offspring than their mates, and we relate this to the (presumed) in-bred nature of the colony and to male and female reproductive strategies. Our data validate a published demographic model of the species (Valle 1995).

Exploring emotional climate in preservice science teacher education

Classroom emotional climates are interrelated with students’ engagement with university courses. Despite growing interest in emotions and emotional climate research, little is known about the ways in which social interactions and different subject matter mediate emotional climates in preservice science teacher education classes. In this study we investigated the emotional climate and associated classroom interactions in a preservice science teacher education class. We were interested in the ways in which salient classroom interactions were related to the emotional climate during lessons centered on debates about science-based issues (e.g., nuclear energy alternatives). Participants used audience response technology to indicate their perceptions of the emotional climate. Analysis of conversation for salient video clips and analysis of non-verbal conduct (acoustic parameters, body movements, and facial expressions) supplemented emotional climate data. One key contribution that this study makes to preservice science teacher education is to identify the micro-processes of successful and unsuccessful class interactions that were associated with positive and neutral emotional climate. The structure of these interactions can inform the practice of other science educators who wish to produce positive emotional climates in their classes. The study also extends and explicates the construct of intensity of emotional climate.

Estimating the effects of ambient temperature on mortality : methodological challenges and proposed solutions

The health impacts of exposure to ambient temperature have been drawing increasing attention from the environmental health research community, government, society, industries, and the public. Case-crossover and time series models are most commonly used to examine the effects of ambient temperature on mortality. However, some key methodological issues remain to be addressed. For example, few studies have used spatiotemporal models to assess the effects of spatial temperatures on mortality. Few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine the delayed (distributed lag) and non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality. Also, little evidence is available on the effects of temperature changes on mortality, and on differences in heat-related mortality over time. This thesis aimed to address the following research questions: 1. How to combine case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear models? 2. Is there any significant difference in effect estimates between time series and spatiotemporal models? 3. How to assess the effects of temperature changes between neighbouring days on mortality? 4. Is there any change in temperature effects on mortality over time? To combine the case-crossover design and distributed lag non-linear model, datasets including deaths, and weather conditions (minimum temperature, mean temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity), and air pollution were acquired from Tianjin China, for the years 2005 to 2007. I demonstrated how to combine the case-crossover design with a distributed lag non-linear model. This allows the case-crossover design to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature whilst controlling for seasonality. There was consistent U-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Cold effects were delayed by 3 days, and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects were acute and lasted for three days, and were followed by mortality displacement for non-accidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deaths. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. It is still unclear whether spatiotemporal models using spatial temperature exposure produce better estimates of mortality risk compared with time series models that use a single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from a network of sites. Daily mortality data were obtained from 163 locations across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. Ordinary kriging was used to interpolate spatial temperatures across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. A spatiotemporal model was used to examine the impact of spatial temperature on mortality. A time series model was used to assess the effects of single site’s temperature, and averaged temperature from 3 monitoring sites on mortality. Squared Pearson scaled residuals were used to check the model fit. The results of this study show that even though spatiotemporal models gave a better model fit than time series models, spatiotemporal and time series models gave similar effect estimates. Time series analyses using temperature recorded from a single monitoring site or average temperature of multiple sites were equally good at estimating the association between temperature and mortality as compared with a spatiotemporal model. A time series Poisson regression model was used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. Temperature change was calculated by the current day's mean temperature minus the previous day's mean. In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 �C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.31) for non-external mortality (NEM), 1.19 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.41) for NEM in females, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.89) for NEM aged 65.74 years. An increase of more than 3 �C was associated with RRs of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.77) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.67 (95% CI: 1.15, 2.43) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 �C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.13 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) for total NEM, 1.25 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.39) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.25 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.39) for people aged . 75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. A change in temperature of more than 3 �C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for mean temperature. I examined the variation in the effects of high temperatures on elderly mortality (age . 75 years) by year, city and region for 83 large US cities between 1987 and 2000. High temperature days were defined as two or more consecutive days with temperatures above the 90th percentile for each city during each warm season (May 1 to September 30). The mortality risk for high temperatures was decomposed into: a "main effect" due to high temperatures using a distributed lag non-linear function, and an "added effect" due to consecutive high temperature days. I pooled yearly effects across regions and overall effects at both regional and national levels. The effects of high temperature (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly by year, city and region. The years with higher heat-related mortality were often followed by those with relatively lower mortality. Understanding this variability in the effects of high temperatures is important for the development of heat-warning systems. In conclusion, this thesis makes contribution in several aspects. Case-crossover design was combined with distribute lag non-linear model to assess the effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin. This makes the case-crossover design flexibly estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature. Both extreme cold and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality in Tianjin. Time series model using single site’s temperature or averaged temperature from some sites can be used to examine the effects of temperature on mortality. Temperature change (no matter significant temperature drop or great temperature increase) increases the risk of mortality. The high temperature effect on mortality is highly variable from year to year.

The effects of cold air (-110°C) and water (8°C) cryotherapy on knee skin temperature

Exposure to cold air, whole body cryotherapy (WBC), is a novel treatment employed by athletes. In WBC individuals dressed in minimal clothing are exposed to a temperature below -100°C for 2-4 min. The use of WBC has been advocated as a treatment for various knee injuries. PURPOSE: To compare the effects of two modalities of cryotherapy, -110°C WBC and 8°C cold water immersion (CWI) on knee skin temperature (Tsk). METHODS: With ethical approval and written informed consent 10 healthy active male participants (26.5±4.9 yr, 183.5±6.0 cm, 90.7±19.9 kg, 26.8±5.0 kg/m2, 23.0±9.3% body fat (measured by DXA), 7.6 ± 2.0 mm patellar skin fold; mean±SD) were exposed to 4 min of CWI and WBC. The treatment order was randomised in a controlled crossover design, with a minimum of 7 days between treatments. During WBC participants stood in a chamber (-60±3°C) for 20 s before entering the main chamber (-110°C±3°C) where they remained for 3 min and 40 s. For CWI participants were seated in a tank filled with cold water (8±0.3°C) and immersed to the level of the sternum for 4 min. Right knee Tsk was assessed via non-contact, infrared thermal imaging. A quadrilateral region of interest was created using inert markers placed 5 cm above and below the most superior and inferior aspect of the patella. Tsk within this quadrilateral was recorded pre, immediately post and every 10 min thereafter for 60 min. Tsk changes were examined using a two-way (treatment x time) repeated measures analyses of variance. In addition, a paired sample t-test was used to compare baseline Tsk before both treatments. RESULTS: Knee Tsk was similar before treatment (WBC: 29.9±0.7°C, CWI: 29.6±0.9°C, p>0.05). There was a significant main effect for treatment (p<0.05) and time (p<0.001). Compared to baseline, Tsk was significantly reduced (p<0.05) immediately post and at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 min after both cooling modalities. Knee Tsk was lower (p<0.05) immediately after WBC (19.0±0.9°C) compared to CWI (20.5±0.6°C). However, from 10 to 60 min post, knee Tsk was lower (p<0.05) following the CWI treatment. CONCLUSION: WBC elicited a greater decrease in knee Tsk compared to CWI immediately after treatment. However, both modalities display different recovery patterns and Tsk after CWI was significantly lower than WBC at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 min after treatment.

Climate change and reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases from ships : an appraisal

Article 2(2) of the Kyoto Protocol imposes an obligation only on certain developed countries, working through the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), to pursue the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from marine bunker fuels. The IMO recently took the initiative to adopt a new legal instrument for the reduction of shipgenerated greenhouse gas emissions. Some developing countries have suggested that the proposed IMO initiative should strictly adhere to Article 2(2) of the Kyoto Protocol and the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR). Against this backdrop, this article intends to review the extent to which it is possible to propose an international legal instrument for the reduction of GHG emissions from marine bunker fuels which is applicable only to ships from developed countries considering the complex characteristics of the international shipping industry. This article also examines how far this approach is justifiable even within the framework of the CBDR principle.

Book Review : Criminological and Legal Consequences of Climate Change. Edited by Stephen Farrell, Tawhida Ahmed and Duncan French (Oxford : Hart Publishing, 272 pp.)

The book addresses a number of pressing social and environmental issues of global concern. It takes the reader on a socio-legal journal of climate change and explores a range of challenging and complex topics including renewable energies, emissions reduction, carbon trading, deforestation, migration and corporate governance.

Cold-formed steel columns subject to local buckling at elevated temperatures

Fire safety design of building structures has received greater attention in recent times due to continuing losses of properties and lives in fires. However, the structural behaviour of thin-walled cold-formed steel columns under fire conditions is not well understood despite the increasing use of light gauge steels in building construction. Cold-formed steel columns are often subject to local buckling effects. Therefore a series of laboratory tests of lipped and unlipped channel columns made of varying steel thicknesses and grades was undertaken at uniform elevated temperatures up to 700°C under steady state conditions. Finite element models of the tested columns were also developed, and their elastic buckling and nonlinear analysis results were compared with test results at elevated temperatures. Effects of the degradation of mechanical properties of steel with temperature were included in the finite element analyses. The use of accurately measured yield stress, elasticity modulus and stress-strain curves at elevated temperatures provided a good comparison of the ultimate loads and load-deflection curves from tests and finite element analyses. The commonly used effective width design rules and the direct strength method at ambient temperature were then used to predict the ultimate loads at elevated temperatures by using the reduced mechanical properties. By comparing these predicted ultimate loads with those from tests and finite element analyses, the accuracy of using this design approach was evaluated.

Experimental study of load bearing cold-formed steel wall systems under fire conditions

Light Gauge Steel Framing (LSF) walls made of cold-formed and thin-walled steel lipped channel studs with plasterboard linings on both sides are commonly used in commercial, industrial and residential buildings. However, there is limited data about their structural and thermal performance under fire conditions while past research showed contradicting results about the benefits of using cavity insulation. A new composite wall panel was recently proposed to improve the fire resistance rating of LSF walls, where an insulation layer was used externally between the plasterboards on both sides of the wall frame instead of using it in the cavity. In this research 11 full scale tests were conducted on conventional load bearing steel stud walls with and without cavity insulation, and the new composite panel system to study their thermal and structural performance under standard fire conditions. These tests showed that the use of cavity insulation led to inferior fire performance of walls, and provided supporting research data. They demonstrated that the use of insulation externally in a composite panel enhanced the thermal and structural performance of LSF walls and increased their fire resistance rating. This paper presents the details of the LSF wall tests and the thermal and structural performance data and fire resistance rating of load-bearing wall assemblies lined with varying plasterboard-insulation configurations under two different load ratios. Fire test results including the time–temperature and deflection profiles are presented along with the failure times and modes.

Finite element modelling of load bearing cold-formed steel wall systems under fire conditions

Light Gauge Steel Framing (LSF) walls are made of cold-formed, thin-walled steel lipped channel studs with plasterboard linings on both sides. However, these thin-walled steel sections heat up quickly and lose their strength under fire conditions despite the protection provided by plasterboards. A new composite wall panel was recently proposed to improve the fire resistance rating of LSF walls, where an insulation layer was used externally between the plasterboards on both sides of the wall frame instead of using it in the cavity. A research study using both fire tests and numerical studies was undertaken to investigate the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing LSF walls made of both conventional and the new composite panels under standard fire conditions and to determine their fire resistance rating. This paper presents the details of finite element models of LSF wall studs developed to simulate the structural performance of LSF wall panels under standard fire conditions. Finite element analyses were conducted under both steady and transient state conditions using the time-temperature profiles measured during the fire tests. The developed models were validated using the fire test results of 11 LSF wall panels with various plasterboard/insulation configurations and load ratios. They were able to predict the fire resistance rating within five minutes. The use of accurate numerical models allowed the inclusion of various complex structural and thermal effects such as local buckling, thermal bowing and neutral axis shift that occurred in thin-walled steel studs under non-uniform elevated temperature conditions. Finite element analyses also demonstrated the improvements offered by the new composite panel system over the conventional cavity insulated system.

Review of current fire design rules for cold-formed steel wall systems

Light gauge steel frame wall systems are commonly used in industrial and commercial buildings, and there is a need for simple fire design rules to predict their load capacities and fire resistance ratings. During fire events, the light gauge steel frame wall studs are subjected to non-uniform temperature distributions that cause thermal bowing, neutral axis shift and magnification effects and thus resulting in a combined axial compression and bending action on the studs. In this research, a series of full-scale fire tests was conducted first to evaluate the performance of light gauge steel frame wall systems with eight different wall configurations under standard fire conditions. Finite element models of light gauge steel frame walls were then developed, analysed under transient and steady-state conditions and validated using full-scale fire tests. Using the results from fire tests and finite element analyses, a detailed investigation was undertaken into the prediction of axial compression strength and failure times of light gauge steel frame wall studs in standard fires using the available fire design rules based on Australian, American and European standards. The results from both fire tests and finite element analyses were used to investigate the ability of these fire design rules to include the complex effects of non-uniform temperature distributions and their accuracy in predicting the axial compression strength of wall studs and the failure times. Suitable modifications were then proposed to the fire design rules. This article presents the details of this investigation on the fire design rules of light gauge steel frame walls and the results.

Development of improved fire design rules for cold-formed steel wall systems

Traditionally the fire resistance rating of LSF wall systems is based on approximate prescriptive methods developed using limited fire tests. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of load bearing LSF wall systems under standard fire conditions was undertaken to develop improved fire design rules. It used the extensive fire performance results of eight different LSF wall systems from a series of full scale fire tests and numerical studies for this purpose. The use of previous fire design rules developed for LSF walls subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions based on AISI design manual and Eurocode3 Parts 1.2 and 1.3 was investigated first. New simplified fire design rules based on AS/NZS 4600, North American Specification and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 were then proposed in this study with suitable allowances for the interaction effects of compression and bending actions. The importance of considering thermal bowing, magnified thermal bowing and neutral axis shift in the fire design was also investigated. A spread sheet based design tool was developed based on the new design rules to predict the failure load ratio versus time and temperature curves for varying LSF wall configurations. The accuracy of the proposed design rules was verified using the test and FEA results for different wall configurations, steel grades, thicknesses and load ratios. This paper presents the details and results of this study including the improved fire design rules for predicting the load capacity of LSF wall studs and the failure times of LSF walls under standard fire conditions.

Improved design rules for cold-formed steel columns

Current design rules for determining the member strength of cold-formed steel columns are based on the effective length of the member and a single column capacity curve for both pin-ended and fixed-ended columns. This research has reviewed the use of AS/NZS 4600 design rules for their accuracy in determining the member compression capacities of slender cold-formed steel columns using detailed numerical studies. It has shown that AS/NZS 4600 design rules accurately predicted the capacities of pinned and fixed ended columns undergoing flexural buckling. However, for fixed ended columns undergoing flexural-torsional buckling, it was found that current AS/NZS 4600 design rules did not include the beneficial effect of warping fixity. Therefore AS/NZS 4600 design rules were found to be excessively conservative and hence uneconomical in predicting the failure loads obtained from tests and finite element analyses of fixed-ended lipped channel columns. Based on this finding, suitable recommendations have been made to modify the current AS/NZS 4600 design rules to more accurately reflect the results obtained from the numerical and experimental studies conducted in this research. This paper presents the details of this research on cold-formed steel columns and the results.