896 resultados para Cohort-based supervision
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BACKGROUND: Distinct Crohn's disease (CD) phenotypes correlate with antibody reactivity to microbial antigens. We examined the association between antibody response to 2 new flagellins called A4-Fla2 and Fla-X, anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA), anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (p-ANCA), anti-pancreas antibodies (PAB), NOD2 mutations (R702W, G908R, and L1007fsinsC), and clinical CD phenotypes (according to Vienna criteria). METHODS: All the above-mentioned antibodies as well as NOD2 mutations were determined in 252 CD patients, 53 with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 43 healthy controls (HC) and correlated with clinical data. RESULTS: A seroreactivity for A4-Fla2/Fla-X/ASCA/p-ANCA/PAB (in percent) was found in 59/57/62/12/22 of CD patients, 6/6/4/51/0 of UC patients, and 0/2/5/0/0 of healthy controls. CD behavior: 37% B1, 36% B2, and 27% B3. In multivariate logistic regression, antibodies to A4-Fla2, Fla-X, and ASCA were significantly associated with stricturing phenotype (P = 0.027, P = 0.041, P < 0.001), negative associations were found with inflammatory phenotype (P = 0.001, P = 0.005, P < 0.001). Antibodies to A4-Fla2, Fla-X, ASCA, and NOD2 mutations were significantly associated with small bowel disease (P = 0.013, P = 0.01, P < 0.001, P = 0.04), whereas ASCA was correlated with fistulizing disease (P = 0.007), and small bowel surgery (P = 0.009). Multiple antibody responses against microbial antigens were associated with stricturing (P < 0.001), fistulizing disease (P = 0.002), and small bowel surgery (P = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Anti-flagellin antibodies and ASCA are strongly associated with complicated CD phenotypes. CD patients with serum reactivity against multiple microbes have the greatest frequency of strictures, perforations, and small bowel surgery. Further prospective longitudinal studies are needed to show that antibody-based risk stratification improves the clinical outcome of CD patients.
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OBJECTIVES: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are a leading cause of hospital admissions in small children. A substantial proportion of these patients require medical and nursing care, which can only be provided in intermediate (IMC) or intensive care units (ICU). This article reports on all children aged < 3 years who required admission to IMC and/or ICU between October 1, 2001 and September 30, 2005 in Switzerland. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We prospectively collected data on all children aged < 3 years who were admitted to an IMC or ICU for an RSV-related illness. Using a detailed questionnaire, we collected information on risk factors, therapy requirements, length of stay in the IMC/ICU and hospital, and outcome. RESULTS: Of the 577 cases reported during the study period, 90 were excluded because the patients did not fulfill the inclusion criteria; data were incomplete in another 25 cases (5%). Therefore, a total of 462 verified cases were eligible for analysis. At the time of hospital admission, only 31 patients (11%) were older than 12 months. Since RSV infection was not the main reason for IMC/ICU admission in 52% of these patients, we chose to exclude this subgroup from further analyses. Among the 431 infants aged < 12 months, the majority (77%) were former near term or full term (NT/FT) infants with a gestational age > or = 35 weeks without additional risk factors who were hospitalized at a median age of 1.5 months. Gestational age (GA) < 32 weeks, moderate to severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), and congenital heart disease (CHD) were all associated with a significant risk increase for IMC/ICU admission (relative risk 14, 56, and 10, for GA < or = 32 weeks, BPD, and CHD, respectively). Compared with NT/FT infants, high-risk infants were hospitalized at an older age (except for infants with CHD), required more invasive and longer respiratory support, and had longer stays in the IMC/ICU and hospital. CONCLUSIONS: In Switzerland, RSV infections lead to the IMC/ICU admission of approximately 1%-2% of each annual birth cohort. Although prematurity, BPD, and CHD are significant risk factors, non-pharmacological preventive strategies should not be restricted to these high-risk patients but also target young NT/FT infants since they constitute 77% of infants requiring IMC/ICU admission.
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Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.
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BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.
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AIM To examine the association of alcohol-related mortality and other causes of death with neighbourhood density of alcohol-selling outlets for on-site consumption. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Longitudinal study of the adult Swiss population (n = 4 376 873) based on census records linked to mortality data from 2001 to 2008. MEASUREMENTS Sex-specific hazard ratios (HR) for death and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated using Cox models adjusting for age, educational level, occupational attainment, marital status and other potential confounders. The density of alcohol-selling outlets within 1000 m of the residence was calculated using geocodes of outlets and residences. FINDINGS Compared with >17 outlets within 1000 m the HR for alcohol-related mortality in men was 0.95 (95%CI: 0.89-1.02) for 8-17 outlets, 0.84 (95%CI: 0.77-0.90) for 3-7 outlets, 0.76 (95%CI: 0.68-0.83) for 1-2 outlets and 0.60 (95%CI: 0.51-0.72) for 0 outlets. The gradient in women was somewhat steeper, with a HR comparing 0 with >17 outlets of 0.39 (95%CI: 0.26-0.60). Mortality from mental and behavioural causes and lung cancer were also associated with density of alcohol-selling outlets: HRs comparing 0 outlets with >17 outlets were 0.64 (95%CI: 0.52-0.79) and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.72-0.88), respectively, in men and 0.46 (95%CI: 0.27-0.78) and 0.63 (95%CI: 0.52-0.77), respectively, in women. There were weak associations in the same direction with all-cause mortality in men but not in women. CONCLUSIONS In Switzerland, alcohol-related mortality is associated with the density of outlets around the place of residence. Community-level interventions to reduce alcohol outlet density may usefully complement existing interventions.
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BACKGROUND Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmitted drug resistance (TDR) can compromise antiretroviral therapy (ART) and thus represents an important public health concern. Typically, sources of TDR remain unknown, but they can be characterized with molecular epidemiologic approaches. We used the highly representative Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and linked drug resistance database (SHCS-DRDB) to analyze sources of TDR. METHODS ART-naive men who have sex with men with infection date estimates between 1996 and 2009 were chosen for surveillance of TDR in HIV-1 subtype B (N = 1674), as the SHCS-DRDB contains pre-ART genotypic resistance tests for >69% of this surveillance population. A phylogeny was inferred using pol sequences from surveillance patients and all subtype B sequences from the SHCS-DRDB (6934 additional patients). Potential sources of TDR were identified based on phylogenetic clustering, shared resistance mutations, genetic distance, and estimated infection dates. RESULTS One hundred forty of 1674 (8.4%) surveillance patients carried virus with TDR; 86 of 140 (61.4%) were assigned to clusters. Potential sources of TDR were found for 50 of 86 (58.1%) of these patients. ART-naive patients constitute 56 of 66 (84.8%) potential sources and were significantly overrepresented among sources (odds ratio, 6.43 [95% confidence interval, 3.22-12.82]; P < .001). Particularly large transmission clusters were observed for the L90M mutation, and the spread of L90M continued even after the near cessation of antiretroviral use selecting for that mutation. Three clusters showed evidence of reversion of K103N or T215Y/F. CONCLUSIONS Many individuals harboring viral TDR belonged to transmission clusters with other Swiss patients, indicating substantial domestic transmission of TDR in Switzerland. Most TDR in clusters could be linked to sources, indicating good surveillance of TDR in the SHCS-DRDB. Most TDR sources were ART naive. This, and the presence of long TDR transmission chains, suggests that resistance mutations are frequently transmitted among untreated individuals, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis and treatment.
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AIMS To assess serially the edge vascular response (EVR) of a bioresorbable vascular scaffold (BVS) compared to a metallic everolimus-eluting stent (EES). METHODS AND RESULTS Non-serial evaluations of the Absorb BVS at one year have previously demonstrated proximal edge constrictive remodelling and distal edge changes in plaque composition with increase of the percent fibro-fatty (FF) tissue component. The 5 mm proximal and distal segments adjacent to the implanted devices were investigated serially with intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), post procedure, at six months and at two years, from the ABSORB Cohort B1 (n=45) and the SPIRIT II (n=113) trials. Twenty-two proximal and twenty-four distal edge segments were available for analysis in the ABSORB Cohort B1 trial. In the SPIRIT II trial, thirty-three proximal and forty-six distal edge segments were analysed. At the 5-mm proximal edge, the vessels treated with an Absorb BVS from post procedure to two years demonstrated a lumen loss (LL) of 6.68% (-17.33; 2.08) (p=0.027) with a trend toward plaque area increase of 7.55% (-4.68; 27.11) (p=0.06). At the 5-mm distal edge no major changes were evident at either time point. At the 5-mm proximal edge the vessels treated with a XIENCE V EES from post procedure to two years did not show any signs of LL, only plaque area decrease of 6.90% (-17.86; 4.23) (p=0.035). At the distal edge no major changes were evident with regard to either lumen area or vessel remodelling at the same time point. CONCLUSIONS The IVUS-based serial evaluation of the EVR up to two years following implantation of a bioresorbable everolimus-eluting scaffold shows a statistically significant proximal edge LL; however, this finding did not seem to have any clinical implications in the serial assessment. The upcoming imaging follow-up of the Absorb BVS at three years is anticipated to provide further information regarding the vessel wall behaviour at the edges.
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BACKGROUND In Mongolia, adequate early diagnosis and treatment of developmental hip dysplasia (DDH) have been unavailable and its incidence was unknown. We determined the incidence of ultrasonographic DDH in newborns and established adequate procedures for diagnosis and treatment of DDH at the largest maternity hospital in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS During one year (Sept 2010 - Aug 2011) we assessed the hips newborns using ultrasound and Graf's classification of DDH. 8,356 newborns were screened; median age at screening was 1 day. We identified 14,873 Type 1 (89.0%), 1715 Type 2a (10.3%), 36 Type 2c (0.2%), 70 Type D (0.4%), 14 Type 3 (0.08%), and 4 Type 4 hips (0.02%). Children with Type 1 hips (normal) were discharged. Children with Type 2a hips (physiologically immature) received follow-up ultrasounds at monthly intervals. Children with Type 2c to 4 (DDH; deformed or misaligned hip joint) hips were treated with a Tubingen hip flexion splint and also followed up. The hip abnormalities resolved to mature hips in all children who were followed up. There was no evidence for severe treatment related complications. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE This study suggests that the incidence of DDH in Mongolian neonates is comparable to that in neonates in Europe. Early ultrasound-based assessment and splinting treatment of DDH led to mature hips in all children followed up. Procedures are feasible and will be continued.
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The association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cardiovascular outcomes has been recently clarified with the publication of three individual participant data (IPD) analyses from the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We identified original cohort studies with a systematic review and pooled individual data from over 70'000 participants to obtain a more precise estimate of the risks of cardiovascular outcomes associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. Subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism, defined as normal thyroxine (FT4) levels with increased or decreased Thyroid-Stimulating Hormones (TSH or thyrotropin) respectively, are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular outcomes compared to euthyroid state, particularly in those with a more pronounced thyroid dysfunction. Specifically, subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events, CHD mortality and heart failure (HF) events in individuals with higher TSH levels, particularly in those with TSH levels ≥10.0 mIU/L. Conversely, subclinical hyperthyroidism is associated with an increased risk of total mortality, CHD mortality, HF and atrial fibrillation, particularly in those with suppressed TSH levels <0.10 mIU/L. Pending ongoing randomized controlled trials, these observational findings allow identifying potential TSH thresholds for thyroid medication initiation based on risk of clinical outcomes, although clinical decision based solely on observational data need caution. The impact of thyroid replacement among the elderly with subclinical hypothyroidism is currently studied in a multicenter international randomized controlled trial (Thyroid Hormone Replacement for Subclinical Hypothyroidism Trial, TRUST trial).
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The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.
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BACKGROUND & AIMS Proprotein convertase 1/3 (PC1/3) deficiency, an autosomal-recessive disorder caused by rare mutations in the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 1 (PCSK1) gene, has been associated with obesity, severe malabsorptive diarrhea, and certain endocrine abnormalities. Common variants in PCSK1 also have been associated with obesity in heterozygotes in several population-based studies. PC1/3 is an endoprotease that processes many prohormones expressed in endocrine and neuronal cells. We investigated clinical and molecular features of PC1/3 deficiency. METHODS We studied the clinical features of 13 children with PC1/3 deficiency and performed sequence analysis of PCSK1. We measured enzymatic activity of recombinant PC1/3 proteins. RESULTS We identified a pattern of endocrinopathies that develop in an age-dependent manner. Eight of the mutations had severe biochemical consequences in vitro. Neonates had severe malabsorptive diarrhea and failure to thrive, required prolonged parenteral nutrition support, and had high mortality. Additional endocrine abnormalities developed as the disease progressed, including diabetes insipidus, growth hormone deficiency, primary hypogonadism, adrenal insufficiency, and hypothyroidism. We identified growth hormone deficiency, central diabetes insipidus, and male hypogonadism as new features of PCSK1 insufficiency. Interestingly, despite early growth abnormalities, moderate obesity, associated with severe polyphagia, generally appears. CONCLUSIONS In a study of 13 children with PC1/3 deficiency caused by disruption of PCSK1, failure of enteroendocrine cells to produce functional hormones resulted in generalized malabsorption. These findings indicate that PC1/3 is involved in the processing of one or more enteric hormones that are required for nutrient absorption.
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AIMS Follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) has been a diagnostic challenge for decades. The PAX8-PPARγ rearrangement has been detected in FTC and classic papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs). The aims of this study were to assess the presence of PAX8-PPARγ by using tissue microarrays in a large cohort of different thyroid neoplasms, and to assess its diagnostic and prognostic implications. METHODS AND RESULTS Fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) analysis for PAX8-PPARγ was performed on 226 thyroid tumours, comprising FTCs (n = 59), PTCs (n = 126), poorly differentiated thyroid carcinomas (PDs; n = 34), follicular thyroid adenomas (FTAs; n = 5), and follicular tumours of unknown malignant potential (FTUMPs; n = 2). PAX8-PPARγ was detected in 12% of FTCs, 1% of PTCs, 7% of PDs, and in both cases of FTUMP. There was no correlation between the extent of capsular or vascular invasion and PAX8-PPARγ, or between lymph node or haematogenous metastasis and PAX8-PPARγ. Overall survival (OS), tumour-specific survival (TSS) and relapse-free-survival (RFS) were not influenced by PAX8-PPARγ. CONCLUSIONS In this study, we demonstrate for the first time the presence of PAX8-PPARγ in PDs and FTUMPs, whereas in FTCs and PTCs the prevalence of PAX8-PPARγ is lower than previously reported. PAX8-PPARγ did not correlate with invasiveness or affect prognosis in any tumour type.
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PURPOSE Somatostatin-based radiopeptide treatment is generally performed using the β-emitting radionuclides (90)Y or (177)Lu. The present study aimed at comparing benefits and harms of both therapeutic approaches. METHODS In a comparative cohort study, patients with advanced neuroendocrine tumours underwent repeated cycles of [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC or [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC until progression of disease or permanent adverse events. Multivariable Cox regression and competing risks regression were employed to examine predictors of survival and adverse events for both treatment groups. RESULTS Overall, 910 patients underwent 1,804 cycles of [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC and 141 patients underwent 259 cycles of [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC. The median survival after [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC and after [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC was comparable (45.5 months versus 35.9 months, hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.63-1.30, p = 0.49). Subgroup analyses revealed a significantly longer survival for [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC over [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC in patients with low tumour uptake, solitary lesions and extra-hepatic lesions. The rate of severe transient haematotoxicities was lower after [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC treatment (1.4 vs 10.1%, p = 0.001), while the rate of severe permanent renal toxicities was similar in both treatment groups (9.2 vs 7.8%, p = 0.32). CONCLUSION The present results revealed no difference in median overall survival after [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC and [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC. Furthermore, [(177)Lu-DOTA]-TOC was less haematotoxic than [(90)Y-DOTA]-TOC.
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Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common and may have severe consequences. Continuous long-term electrocardiogram (ECG) is widely used for AF screening. Recently, commercial ECG analysis software was launched, which automatically detects AF in long-term ECGs. It has been claimed that such tools offer reliable AF screening and save time for ECG analysis. However, this has not been investigated in a real-life patient cohort. Objective To investigate the performance of automatic software-based screening for AF in long-term ECGs. Methods Two independent physicians manually screened 22,601 hours of continuous long-term ECGs from 150 patients for AF. Presence, number, and duration of AF episodes were registered. Subsequently, the recordings were screened for AF by an established ECG analysis software (Pathfinder SL), and its performance was validated against the thorough manual analysis (gold standard). Results Sensitivity and specificity for AF detection was 98.5% (95% confidence interval 91.72%–99.96%) and 80.21% (95% confidence interval 70.83%–87.64%), respectively. Software-based AF detection was inferior to manual analysis by physicians (P < .0001). Median AF duration was underestimated (19.4 hours vs 22.1 hours; P < .001) and median number of AF episodes was overestimated (32 episodes vs 2 episodes; P < .001) by the software. In comparison to extensive quantitative manual ECG analysis, software-based analysis saved time (2 minutes vs 19 minutes; P < .001). Conclusion Owing to its high sensitivity and ability to save time, software-based ECG analysis may be used as a screening tool for AF. An additional manual confirmatory analysis may be required to reduce the number of false-positive findings.