The Nature of Scientific Proof in the Age of Simulations. Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth?

Is numerical mimicry a third way of establishing truth? Kevin Heng received his M.S. and Ph.D. in astrophysics from the Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics (JILA) and the University of Colorado at Boulder. He joined the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton from 2007 to 2010, first as a Member and later as the Frank & Peggy Taplin Member. From 2010 to 2012 he was a Zwicky Prize Fellow at ETH Z¨urich (the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology). In 2013, he joined the Center for Space and Habitability (CSH) at the University of Bern, Switzerland, as a tenure-track assistant professor, where he leads the Exoplanets and Exoclimes Group. He has worked on, and maintains, a broad range of interests in astrophysics: shocks, extrasolar asteroid belts, planet formation, fluid dynamics, brown dwarfs and exoplanets. He coordinates the Exoclimes Simulation Platform (ESP), an open-source set of theoretical tools designed for studying the basic physics and chemistry of exoplanetary atmospheres and climates (www.exoclime.org). He is involved in the CHEOPS (Characterizing Exoplanet Satellite) space telescope, a mission approved by the European Space Agency (ESA) and led by Switzerland. He spends a fair amount of time humbly learning the lessons gleaned from studying the Earth and Solar System planets, as related to him by atmospheric, climate and planetary scientists. He received a Sigma Xi Grant-in-Aid of Research in 2006

Normal values for pancreatic stone protein in different age groups.

BACKGROUND Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) has been identified as a promising sepsis marker in adults, children and neonates. However, data on population-based reference values are lacking. This study aimed to establish age-specific reference values for PSP. METHODS PSP was determined using a specific ELISA. PSP serum concentrations were determined in 372 healthy subjects including 217 neonates, 94 infants and children up to 16 years, and 61 adults. The adjacent categories method was used to determine which age categories had significantly different PSP concentrations. RESULTS PSP circulating levels were not gender-dependent and ranged from 1.0 to 99.4 ng/ml with a median of 9.2 ng/ml. PSP increased significantly between the age categories, from a median of 2.6 ng/ml in very preterm newborns, to 6.3 ng/ml in term newborns, to 16.1 ng/ml in older children (p < 0.001). PSP levels were higher on postnatal day three compared to levels measured immediately post delivery (p < 0.001). Paired umbilical artery and umbilical vein samples were strongly correlated (p < 0.001). Simultaneously obtained capillary heel-prick versus venous samples showed a good level of agreement for PSP (Rho 0.89, bias 19 %). CONCLUSIONS This study provides age-specific normal values that may be used to define cut-offs for future trials on PSP. We demonstrate an age-dependent increase of PSP from birth to childhood.

Impact of oral contraceptives on weight, body composition, and cardiovascular disease risk factors in women age 18--30 years participating in a 15-week exercise program

Objective. To assess differences in body weight, body composition, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and blood glucose between OC users and non-users age 18-30 y before and after a 15-week cardiovascular exercise program in Houston, TX from 2003 to 2007.^ Study Design. Secondary analysis of prospective data. ^ Study Subjects. 453 Non-Hispanic white (NHW), Hispanic, and African American (AA) women age 18-30 y with no previous live birth, a history of menstruating, no use of other hormonal contraceptives or medications, no menopause or hysterectomy, and no current pregnancies.^ Measurements. Demographic data, medication use, and menstrual history were assessed via self-administered questionnaires at baseline. Anthropometric and laboratory measures were taken at baseline and 15-weeks. ^ Data Analysis. Linear regression assessed the association between OC use and study variables at baseline, and the change in study variables from baseline to 15-weeks. Logistic regression assessed the association between OC use and CVD risk. Each analysis was also stratified by race/ethnicity. ^ Results. At baseline, OC users had higher total cholesterol (p<.0005) and were above cholesterol risk cut points for CVD (OR=4.3, 95% CI=2.4-7.7) compared to non-users. At baseline, OC use was also associated with higher diastolic blood pressure (p=.018) compared to non-users, primarily in non-Hispanic whites (p=.007). OC use was associated with lower blood glucose compared to non-users in Hispanics only (p=.008). OC use was associated with absolute change in diastolic blood pressure (p=.044) and total cholesterol (p=.003). There was evidence that OC use may affect individuals differently based on race/ethnicity for certain obesity and CVD risk factors.^ Conclusions. OC users and non-users responded similarly to a 15-week cardiovascular exercise program. Exceptions included a greater change in diastolic blood pressure and total cholesterol among NHW and Hispanic OC users compared to non-users after exercise intervention. At baseline, OC use was associated with diastolic blood pressure and was most strongly associated with increased levels of total cholesterol. OC users were at greater risk of having total cholesterol above CVD risk cut points than non-users.^

Effects of air pollution on asthma hospitalization rates in different age groups in metropolitan cities of Korea

Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

Crystal size variations in Eemian-age ice from the GRIP ice core, Central Greenland

Continuous measurements of ice crystal size have been carried out on an 80 m sequence between 2790 and 2870 m depth in the GRIP ice core from Central Greenland. The ice in this interval is at present considered to orginate from the Eemian interglacial period. The record reveals that the crystal size in ice older than 100,000 yr is highly dependent on climatic conditions at the time of snowfall. This dependence shows up as a strong correlation between ?18O values and crystal size throughout the Eemian, as well as a negative correlation between crystal size and several soluble and insoluble impurities. Although high-resolution impurity records are available from selected parts of the Eemian ice, the study is not conclusive on which impurities are most effective in slowing grain growth. It is shown that the normal grain-growth process, commonly observed in the upper few hundred metres of polar ice sheets, does not yield grain sizes compatible with observed ones at this depth in the ice sheet, even in those parts of the Eemian ice where impurity drag effects are not present. Polygonization of crystals within the ice sheet and the nucleation and rapid growth of new grains at relatively high temperatures in the lowest part probably play an important role in producing the observed grain-size variations. The relevance of possible flow disturbances of the GRIP Eemian climatic record for the results presented is discussed briefly.

Increased mitochondrial oxidative stress in the Sod2 (+/−) mouse results in the age-related decline of mitochondrial function culminating in increased apoptosis

To determine the importance of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species toxicity in aging and senescence, we analyzed changes in mitochondrial function with age in mice with partial or complete deficiencies in the mitochondrial antioxidant enzyme manganese superoxide dismutase (MnSOD). Liver mitochondria from homozygous mutant mice, with a complete deficiency in MnSOD, exhibited substantial respiration inhibition and marked sensitization of the mitochondrial permeability transition pore. Mitochondria from heterozygous mice, with a partial deficiency in MnSOD, showed evidence of increased proton leak, inhibition of respiration, and early and rapid accumulation of mitochondrial oxidative damage. Furthermore, chronic oxidative stress in the heterozygous mice resulted in an increased sensitization of the mitochondrial permeability transition pore and the premature induction of apoptosis, which presumably eliminates the cells with damaged mitochondria. Mice with normal MnSOD levels show the same age-related mitochondrial decline as the heterozygotes but occurring later in life. The premature decline in mitochondrial function in the heterozygote was associated with the compensatory up-regulation of oxidative phosphorylation enzyme activity. Thus mitochondrial reactive oxygen species production, oxidative stress, functional decline, and the initiation of apoptosis appear to be central components of the aging process.

Lifespan extension and delayed immune and collagen aging in mutant mice with defects in growth hormone production

Single-gene mutations that extend lifespan provide valuable tools for the exploration of the molecular basis for age-related changes in cell and tissue function and for the pathophysiology of age-dependent diseases. We show here that mice homozygous for loss-of-function mutations at the Pit1 (Snell dwarf) locus show a >40% increase in mean and maximal longevity on the relatively long-lived (C3H/HeJ × DW/J)F1 background. Mutant dwJ/dw animals show delays in age-dependent collagen cross-linking and in six age-sensitive indices of immune system status. These findings thus demonstrate that a single gene can control maximum lifespan and the timing of both cellular and extracellular senescence in a mammal. Pituitary transplantation into dwarf mice does not reverse the lifespan effect, suggesting that the effect is not due to lowered prolactin levels. In contrast, homozygosity for the Ghrhrlit mutation, which like the Pit1dw mutation lowers plasma growth hormone levels, does lead to a significant increase in longevity. Male Snell dwarf mice, unlike calorically restricted mice, become obese and exhibit proportionately high leptin levels in old age, showing that their exceptional longevity is not simply due to alterations in adiposity per se. Further studies of the Pit1dw mutant, and the closely related, long-lived Prop-1df (Ames dwarf) mutant, should provide new insights into the hormonal regulation of senescence, longevity, and late life disease.

Adaptive plasticity in hatching age: a response to predation risk trade-offs.

The life histories of many animals are characterized by niche shifts, the timing of which can strongly affect fitness. In the tree frog Agalychnis callidryas, which has arboreal eggs, there is a trade-off between predation risks before and after hatching. When eggs are attacked by snakes, tadpoles escape by hatching rapidly and falling into the water below. Eggs not attacked by snakes hatch later, when newly emerged tadpoles are less vulnerable to aquatic predators. Plasticity in hatching allows embryos to use immediate, local information on risk of mortality to make instantaneous behavioral decisions about hatching and the accompanying shift from arboreal to aquatic habitats.