Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Echolocation calls of the bats of Trinidad, West Indies: is guild membership reflected in echolocation signal design?

Time-expanded echolocation calls were recorded from 29 species of Neotropical bats in lowland moist tropical forest in Trinidad, West Indies with three aims (I) to describe the echolocation calls of the members of a diverse Neotropical bat community, especially members of the family Phyllostomidae, whose calls are not well documented (2) to investigate whether multivariate analysis of calls allows species and foraging guilds to be identified and (3) to evaluate the use of bat detectors in surveying the phyllostomids of Neotropical forests. The calls of 12 species of the family Phyllostomidae are described here for the first time and a total of 29 species, belonging to five families (Emballonuridae, Mormoopidae, Phyllostomidae, Molossidae and Vespertilionidae) were recorded Quadratic discriminant function analysis (DFA) was used to obtain classification rates for each one of 11 individual species and for six guilds (based on diet, foraging mode and habitat) comprising 26 species Overall classification rates were low compared to similar studies conducted in the Palaeotropics We suggest that this may be due to a combination of ecological plasticity for certain species and a loose relationship between echolocation call shape, fine-grained resource partitioning and resource acquisition in phyllostomids

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Environmental effects of Deccan volcanism across the Cretaceous-Tertiary transition in Meghalaya, India

The Urn Sohryngkew section of Meghalaya, NE India, located 800-1000 km from the Deccan volcanic province, is one of the most complete Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary (KTB) transitions worldwide with all defining and supporting criteria present: mass extinction of planktic foraminifera, first appearance of Danian species, delta(13)C shift, Ir anomaly (12 ppb) and KTB red layer. The geochemical signature of the KTB layer indicates not only an extraterrestrial signal (Ni and all Platinum Group Elements (PGEs)) of a second impact that postdates Chicxulub, but also a significant component resulting from condensed sedimentation (P), redox fluctuations (As, Co, Fe, Pb, Zn, and to a lesser extent Ni and Cu) and volcanism. From the late Maastrichtian C29r into the early Danian, a humid climate prevailed (kaolinite: 40-60%, detrital minerals: 50-80%). During the latest Maastrichtian, periodic acid rains (carbonate dissolution; CIA index: 70-80) associated with pulsed Deccan eruptions and strong continental weathering resulted in mesotrophic waters. The resulting super-stressed environmental conditions led to the demise of nearly all planktic foraminiferal species and blooms (>95%) of the disaster opportunist Guembelitria cretacea. These data reveal that detrimental marine conditions prevailed surrounding the Deccan volcanic province during the main phase of eruptions in C29r below the KTB. Ultimately these environmental conditions led to regionally early extinctions followed by global extinctions at the KTB. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing Climate Insecurity by Ensuring Continuous Capital Accumulation : 'Climate Refugees' and 'Climate Migrants'

Numerous recent reports by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), academics and international organisations have focused on so-called 'climate refugees'. This article examines the turn from a discourse of 'climate refugees', in which organisations perceive migration as a failure of both mitigation and adaptation to climate change, to one of 'climate migration', in which organisations promote migration as a strategy of adaptation. Its focus is the promotion of climate migration management, and it explores the trend of these discourses through two sections. First, it provides an empirical account of the two discourses, emphasising the differentiation between them. It then focuses on the discourse of climate migration, its origins, extent and content, and the associated practices of 'migration management'. The second part argues that the turn to the promotion of 'climate migration' should be understood as a way to manage the insecurity created by climate change. However, international organisations enacts this management within the forms of neoliberal capitalism, including the framework of governance. Therefore, the promotion of 'climate migration' as a strategy of adaptation to climate change is located within the tendencies of neoliberalism and the reconfiguration of southern states' sovereignty through governance.

Ezrin-Radixin-Moesin-binding Sequence of PSGL-1 Glycoprotein Regulates Leukocyte Rolling on Selectins and Activation of Extracellular Signal-regulated Kinases.

P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 (PSGL-1) mediates the capture (tethering) of free-flowing leukocytes and subsequent rolling on selectins. PSGL-1 interactions with endothelial selectins activate Src kinases and spleen tyrosine kinase (Syk), leading to α(L)β(2) integrin-dependent leukocyte slow rolling, which promotes leukocyte recruitment into tissues. In addition, but through a distinct pathway, PSGL-1 engagement activates ERK. Because ezrin, radixin and moesin proteins (ERMs) link PSGL-1 to actin cytoskeleton and because they serve as adaptor molecules between PSGL-1 and Syk, we examined the role of PSGL-1 ERM-binding sequence (EBS) on cell capture, rolling, and signaling through Syk and MAPK pathways. We carried out mutational analysis and observed that deletion of EBS severely reduced 32D leukocyte tethering and rolling on L-, P-, and E-selectin and slightly increased rolling velocity. Alanine substitution of Arg-337 and Lys-338 showed that these residues play a key role in supporting leukocyte tethering and rolling on selectins. Importantly, EBS deletion or Arg-337 and Lys-338 mutations abrogated PSGL-1-induced ERK activation, whereas they did not prevent Syk phosphorylation or E-selectin-induced leukocyte slow rolling. These studies demonstrate that PSGL-1 EBS plays a critical role in recruiting leukocytes on selectins and in activating the MAPK pathway, whereas it is dispensable to phosphorylate Syk and to lead to α(L)β(2)-dependent leukocyte slow rolling.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Climate change impact on biodiversity in Switzerland: a review. Journal for Nature Conservation

A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and consider some perspectives for the future at the national level. The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution toward mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends. These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species.

Anti Bullying Procedures for Primary and Post Primary Schools - Appendix 2 Practical tips for building a positive school culture and climate

Anti Bullying Procedures for Primary and Post Primary Schools - Appendix 2 Practical tips for building a positive school culture and climate. Provided by the Department of Education and Skills, Ireland.

The role of queen pheromones in social insects: queen control or queen signal?

Queens and workers in social insect colonies can differ in reproductive goals such as colony-level sex allocation and production of males by workers. That the presence of queen(s) often seems to affect worker behaviour in situations of potential conflict has given rise to the idea of queen control over reproduction. In small colonies queen control is possible via direct aggression against workers, but in large colonies queens cannot be effectively aggressive towards all the workers. This, plus evidence that queen-produced chemicals affect worker behaviour, has led to the conclusion that physical intimidation has been replaced by pheromonal queen control, whereby queen(s) chemically manipulate workers into behaving in ways that increase the queen's fitness at the worker's expense. It is argued in this paper, however, that pheromonal queen control has never conclusively been demonstrated and is evolutionarily difficult to justify. Proposed examples of pheromonal control are more likely to be honest signals, with workers' responses increasing their own inclusive fitness. A series of experimental and field studies in which positive results would give prima facie evidence for pheromonal queen control is suggested. Finally, three terms are defined: (1) pheromonal queen control for workers or subordinate queens being chemically manipulated into acting against their own best interests; (2) pheromonal queen signal for situations where workers or subordinate queens react to queen pheromones in ways that increase their, and possibly the queens', inclusive fitness; and (3) pheromonal queen effect where changes in the workers' or subordinate queens' behaviour have an unknown consequence on their inclusive fitness.

Functional complementation of a yeast knockout strain by Schistosoma mansoni Rho1 GTPase in the presence of caffeine, an agent that affects mutants defective in the protein kinase C signal transduction pathway

In a previous study, the Schistosoma mansoni Rho1 protein was able to complement Rho1 null mutant Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells at restrictive temperatures and under osmotic stress (low calcium concentration) better than the human homologue (RhoA). It is known that under osmotic stress, the S. cerevisiae Rho1 triggers two distinct pathways: activation of the membrane 1,3-beta-glucan synthase enzymatic complex and activation of the protein kinase C1 signal transduction pathway, promoting the transcription of response genes. In the present work the SmRho1 protein and its mutants smrho1E97P, smrho1L101T, and smrho1E97P, L101T were used to try to clarify the basis for the differential complementation of Rho1 knockout yeast strain by the human and S. mansoni genes. Experiments of functional complementation in the presence of caffeine and in the presence of the osmotic regulator sorbitol were conducted. SmRho1 and its mutants showed a differential complementation of the yeast cells in the presence of caffeine, since smrho1E97P and smrho1E97P, L101T mutants showed a delay in the growth when compared to the yeast complemented with the wild type SmRho1. However, in the presence of sorbitol and caffeine the wild type SmRho1 and mutants showed a similar complementation phenotype, as they allowed yeast growth in all caffeine concentrations tested.

Cutting edge: IL-1α is a crucial danger signal triggering acute myocardial inflammation during myocardial infarction.

Myocardial infarction (MI) induces a sterile inflammatory response that contributes to adverse cardiac remodeling. The initiating mechanisms of this response remain incompletely defined. We found that necrotic cardiomyocytes released a heat-labile proinflammatory signal activating MAPKs and NF-κB in cardiac fibroblasts, with secondary production of cytokines. This response was abolished in Myd88(-/-) fibroblasts but was unaffected in nlrp3-deficient fibroblasts. Despite MyD88 dependency, the response was TLR independent, as explored in TLR reporter cells, pointing to a contribution of the IL-1 pathway. Indeed, necrotic cardiomyocytes released IL-1α, but not IL-1β, and the immune activation of cardiac fibroblasts was abrogated by an IL-1R antagonist and an IL-1α-blocking Ab. Moreover, immune responses triggered by necrotic Il1a(-/-) cardiomyocytes were markedly reduced. In vivo, mice exposed to MI released IL-1α in the plasma, and postischemic inflammation was attenuated in Il1a(-/-) mice. Thus, our findings identify IL-1α as a crucial early danger signal triggering post-MI inflammation.