Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council Final Report 2008.

On April 27, 2007, Iowa Governor Chet Culver signed Senate File 485, a bill related to greenhouse gas emissions. Part of this bill created the Iowa Climate Change Advisory Council (ICCAC), which consists of 23 governor-appointed members from various stakeholder groups, and 4 nonvoting, ex officio members from the General Assembly. ICCAC’s immediate responsibilities included submitting a proposal to the Governor and General Assembly that addresses policies, cost-effective strategies, and multiple scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions. Further, a preliminary report was submitted in January 2008, with a final proposal submitted in December 2008. In the Final Report, the Council presents two scenarios designed to reduce statewide greenhouse gas emissions by 50% and 90% from a 2005 baseline by the year 2050. For the 50% reduction by 2050, the Council recommends approximately a 1% reduction by 2012 and an 11% reduction by 2020. For the 90% reduction scenario, the Council recommends a 3% reduction by 2012 and a 22% reduction 2020. These interim targets were based on a simple extrapolation assuming a linear rate of reduction between now and 2050. In providing these scenarios for your consideration, ICCAC approved 56 policy options from a large number of possibilities. There are more than enough options to reach the interim and final emission targets in both the 50% and 90% reduction scenarios. Direct costs and cost savings of these policy options were also evaluated with the help of The Center for Climate Strategies, who facilitated the process and provided technical assistance throughout the entire process, and who developed the Iowa Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast in close consultation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) and many Council and Sub-Committee members. About half of the policy options presented in this report will not only reduce GHG emissions but are highly cost-effective and will save Iowans money. Still other options may require significant investment but will create jobs, stimulate energy independence, and advance future regional or federal GHG programs.

Processes and consequences in business ethical dilemmas: The oil industry and climate changes

This paper proposes a framework to examine business ethical dilemmas andbusiness attitudes towards such dilemmas. Business ethical dilemmas canbe understood as reflecting a contradiction between a socially detrimentalprocess and a self-interested profitable consequence. This representationallows us to distinguish two forms of behavior differing by whetherpriority is put on consequences or on processes. We argue that theseforms imply very different business attitudes towards society:controversial or competitive for the former and aligned or cooperativefor the latter. These attitudes are then analyzed at the discursive level in order to address the question of good faith in businessargumentation, i.e. to which extent are these attitudes consistent withactual business behaviors. We argue that consequential attitudes mostlyinvolve communication and lobbying actions aiming at eluding the dilemma.Therefore, the question of good faith for consequential attitudes liesin the consistency between beliefs and discourse. On the other hand,procedural attitudes acknowledge the dilemma and claim a change of theprocess of behavior. They thus raise the question of the consistencybetween discourses and actual behavior. We apply this processes/consequencesframework to the case of the oil industry s climate change ethical dilemmawhich comes forth as a dilemma between emitting greenhouse gases and making more profits . And we examine the different attitudes of two oilcorporations-BP Amoco and ExxonMobil-towards the dilemma.

Food's visually perceived fat content affects discrimination speed in an orthogonal spatial task.

Choosing what to eat is a complex activity for humans. Determining a food's pleasantness requires us to combine information about what is available at a given time with knowledge of the food's palatability, texture, fat content, and other nutritional information. It has been suggested that humans may have an implicit knowledge of a food's fat content based on its appearance; Toepel et al. (Neuroimage 44:967-974, 2009) reported visual-evoked potential modulations after participants viewed images of high-energy, high-fat food (HF), as compared to viewing low-fat food (LF). In the present study, we investigated whether there are any immediate behavioural consequences of these modulations for human performance. HF, LF, or non-food (NF) images were used to exogenously direct participants' attention to either the left or the right. Next, participants made speeded elevation discrimination responses (up vs. down) to visual targets presented either above or below the midline (and at one of three stimulus onset asynchronies: 150, 300, or 450 ms). Participants responded significantly more rapidly following the presentation of a HF image than following the presentation of either LF or NF images, despite the fact that the identity of the images was entirely task-irrelevant. Similar results were found when comparing response speeds following images of high-carbohydrate (HC) food items to low-carbohydrate (LC) food items. These results support the view that people rapidly process (i.e. within a few hundred milliseconds) the fat/carbohydrate/energy value or, perhaps more generally, the pleasantness of food. Potentially as a result of HF/HC food items being more pleasant and thus having a higher incentive value, it seems as though seeing these foods results in a response readiness, or an overall alerting effect, in the human brain.

Statistical discrimination of black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

Pearson correlation coefficients were applied for the objective comparison of 30 black gel pen inks analysed by laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (LDI-MS). The mass spectra were obtained for ink lines directly on paper using positive and negative ion modes at several laser intensities. This methodology has the advantage of taking into account the reproducibility of the results as well as the variability between spectra of different pens. A differentiation threshold could thus be selected in order to avoid the risk of false differentiation. Combining results from positive and negative mode yielded a discriminating power up to 85%, which was better than the one obtained previously with other optical comparison methodologies. The technique also allowed discriminating between pens from the same brand.

Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in first flowering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affinity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied. METHODS: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before flowering and whether families differ significantly in the direction of their phenological shifts. KEY RESULTS: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; early-flowering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-flowering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here. CONCLUSIONS: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-flowering families (and the absence of early-flowering families not sensitive to temperature) may reflect plasticity in flowering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

Stable isotope compositions of mammoth teeth from Niederweningen, Switzerland: Implications for the Late Pleistocene climate, environment, and diet

Oxygen and carbon isotope compositions of well-preserved mammoth teeth from the Middle Wurmian (40-70 ka) peat layer of Niederweningen, the most important mammoth site in Switzerland, were analysed to reconstruct Late Pleistocene palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental conditions. Drinking water (delta(18)O values of approximately -12.3 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand were calculated front oxygen isotope compositions of mammoth tooth enamel apatite using a species-specific calibration for modern elephants. These delta(18)O(H2O) values reflect the mean oxygen isotope composition of the palaeo-precipitation and are similar to those directly measured for fate Pleistocene groundwater from aquifers in northern Switzerland and southern Germany. Using a present-day delta(18)O(H2)o-precipitation-air temperature relation for Switzerland, a mean annual air temperature (MAT) of around 4.3 +/- 2.1 degrees C can be calculated for the Middle Wurmian at this site. This MAT is in good agreement with palaeotemperature estimates on the basis of Middle Wurmian groundwater recharge temperatures and beetle assemblages. Hence, the climatic conditions in this region were around 4 degrees C cooler during the Middle Wurmian interstadial phase, around 45-50ka BP, than they are today. During this period the mammoths from Niederweningen lived in an open tundra-like, C(3) plant-dominated environment as indicated by enamel (delta(13)C values of -11.5 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand and pollen and macroplant fossils found in the embedding peat. The low variability of enamel delta(13)C and delta(18)O values from different mammoth teeth reflects similar environmental conditions and supports a relatively small time frame for the fossil assemblage. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and lowspreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising theirdeficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and,surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was reallocatedfrom the private to the public sectors, reducing investment and deepening the recessions evenfurther. To account for these facts, we propose a simple model of sovereign risk in which debtcan be traded in secondary markets. The model has two key ingredients: creditor discriminationand crowding-out effects. Creditor discrimination arises because, in turbulent times, sovereigndebt offers a higher expected return to domestic creditors than to foreign ones. This providesincentives for domestic purchases of debt. Crowding-out effects arise because private borrowingis limited by financial frictions. This implies that domestic debt purchases displace productiveinvestment. The model shows that these purchases reduce growth and welfare, and may lead toself-fulfilling crises. It also shows how crowding-out effects can be transmitted to other countriesin the Eurozone, and how they may be addressed by policies at the European level.

Entropy Production In Thermodynamic Climate Models

We present a non-equilibrium theory in a system with heat and radiative fluxes. The obtained expression for the entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional climate model based on the first law of thermodynamics. In the model, the dissipative fluxes are assumed to be independent variables, following the criteria of the Extended Irreversible Thermodynamics (BIT) that enlarges, in reference to the classical expression, the applicability of a macroscopic thermodynamic theory for systems far from equilibrium. We analyze the second differential of the classical and the generalized entropy as a criteria of stability of the steady states. Finally, the extreme state is obtained using variational techniques and observing that the system is close to the maximum dissipation rate

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system : A review of the maximum entropy production principle

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a selffeedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars

Second differential of the entropy as a criterion for the stability in low-dimensional climate models

The second differential of the entropy is used for analysing the stability of a thermodynamic climatic model. A delay time for the heat flux is introduced whereby it becomes an independent variable. Two different expressions for the second differential of the entropy are used: one follows classical irreversible thermodynamics theory; the second is related to the introduction of response time and is due to the extended irreversible thermodynamics theory. the second differential of the classical entropy leads to unstable solutions for high values of delay times. the extended expression always implies stable states for an ice-free earth. When the ice-albedo feedback is included, a discontinuous distribution of stable states is found for high response times. Following the thermodynamic analysis of the model, the maximum rates of entropy production at the steady state are obtained. A latitudinally isothermal earth produces the extremum in global entropy production. the material contribution to entropy production (by which we mean the production of entropy by material transport of heat) is a maximum when the latitudinal distribution of temperatures becomes less homogeneous than present values

L'interdiction de discrimination en raison de la nationalité au sens de l'Accord sur la libre circulation des personnes

Introduction : 6 décembre 1992: le peuple suisse rejette l'Accord sur l'Espace économique européen (EEE). Le Conseil fédéral décide alors de privilégier la voie bilatérale pour réglementer ses relations avec l'Union européenne (UE). Près de sept ans plus tard, le 21 juin 1999, un premier paquet de sept accords bilatéraux sont signés à Luxembourg. L'Accord sur la libre circulation des personnes (ALCP ou Accord) en constitue certainement « la partie la plus importante ». L'ALCP a pour objectif de garantir la libre circulation des travailleurs salariés, des travailleurs indépendants ainsi que de certaines catégories de non-actifs, et de faciliter la prestation de services sur le territoire des parties contractantes. Or la réalisation de ces objectifs dépend directement de la mise en oeuvre de l'interdiction de discrimination en raison de la nationalité. Au coeur même du principe de libre circulation, l'interdiction de discrimination en raison de la nationalité constitue, sans aucun doute, la clé de voûte de l'Accords. Partant de ce constat, il conviendra d'étudier dans un premier temps le principe de libre circulation (Partie I), puis de nous pencher dans un second temps sur l'interdiction de discrimination en raison de la nationalité (Partie II). La première partie de notre étude (consacrée à la libre circulation des personnes en vertu de l'ALCP) débutera par un survol des dispositions essentielles à l'appréhension d'un droit fondamental à la libre circulation, ainsi que par une présentation succincte du régime communautaire de libre circulation. Après avoir rappelé les étapes du cheminement ayant conduit à l'adoption de l'ALCP, et après avoir défini les différentes sources régissant la libre circulation entre la Suisse et les Etats membres de l'UE, nous analyserons ensuite l'ALCP lui-même, en procédant à la détermination de son champ d'application ainsi qu'à l'examen des principes généraux qui le régissent. Cet examen nous amènera alors à déterminer le rôle que devrait jouer la jurisprudence de la Cour de justice des Communautés européennes (CJCE) dans le cadre de l'Accord. Fort de cette analyse, nous conclurons cette première partie par une présentation du régime de libre circulation tel qu'institué par l'ALCP, sans oublier bien sûr d'évoquer, finalement, la portée du concept d'entrave et de la notion de citoyenneté européenne dans le cadre de ce régime. La seconde partie de notre étude (consacrée à l'interdiction de discrimination en raison de la nationalité selon l'ALCP) identifiera, à titre liminaire, les différentes dispositions de l'Accord visant à prohiber les discriminations en raison de la nationalité. Ces dispositions mises en lumière, nous détaillerons alors les étapes de l'examen permettant de relever la présence d'une discrimination en raison de la nationalité, en nous appuyant sur la jurisprudence de la Cour de justice et celle du Tribunal fédéral d'une part, et sur la doctrine développée en matière d'interdiction de discrimination d'autre part. Dans la foulée, nous pourrons ainsi présenter les différentes formes que peut revêtir une discrimination. Nous examinerons, en particulier, le régime prévu par la jurisprudence de la Cour de justice et celle du Tribunal fédéral en matière de discriminations à rebours présentant un élément transfrontalier. Suite de quoi nous serons en mesure - après examen des jurisprudences allemande et autrichienne relatives aux situations internes de discriminations à rebours - de procéder à une appréciation critique de la solution adoptée par le Tribunal fédéral en pareilles situations. A la suite de ces deux chapitres portant sur la notion et sur les formes de discriminations, il y aura lieu de définir le champ d'application matériel et personnel des différentes dispositions de l'Accord visant à interdire les discriminations en raison de la nationalité. Lors de la définition du champ d'application personnel en particulier, il conviendra, en premier lieu, d'identifier les personnes susceptibles d'invoquer ces différentes dispositions (les bénéficiaires). Cet examen débutera par l'identification des conditions générales communes à l'ensemble des dispositions étudiées. Il se poursuivra par l'analyse des conditions spécifiques de chaque norme, et se terminera par une présentation du régime particulier réservé aux membres de la famille et aux travailleurs détachés. En second lieu, il s'agira de déterminer les sujets de droit à l'encontre desquels ces dispositions sont opposables (les destinataires). Plus précisément, il s'agira d'examiner dans quelle mesure les particuliers, en sus des Etats, peuvent être destinataires des différentes obligations de l'ALCP en matière de libre circulation et d'interdiction de discrimination. Les champs d'application ayant été définis, il nous restera alors à examiner les différentes dispositions de l'Accord susceptibles de limiter la portée du principe de non-discrimination. Pour ce faire, nous analyserons en détail l'article 5 Annexe I-ALCP qui permet de limiter les droits consacrés par l'Accord pour des raisons d'ordre public, de sécurité publique ou de santé publique. Nous nous pencherons aussi sur les limitations liées à l'exercice de la puissance publique, consacrées par les articles 10, 16 et 22 al. 1 Annexe I-ALCP. Après un passage en revue des dernières dispositions de l'Accord prévoyant des limitations, nous examinerons ensuite dans quelle mesure certains principes non expressément prévus par l'Accord sont également susceptibles de justifier une différence de traitement en raison de la nationalité. Nous conclurons cette étude en analysant les implications juridiques d'une violation de l'interdiction de discrimination, ceci non seulement dans les relations liant l'Etat à un particulier, mais aussi dans celles liant deux particuliers entre eux. Dans le premier cas de figure nous verrons qu'il y a lieu de différencier l'analyse en fonction du type d'acte en question - les implications d'une violation n'étant pas les mêmes selon que l'on se trouve en présence d'une norme, d'une décision ou d'un contrat (de droit administratif ou de droit privé) présentant un caractère discriminatoire. Dans le second cas de figure, il s'agira cette fois-ci de distinguer les implications des conditions discriminatoires en fonction des différentes phases d'une relation contractuelle - aux stades de la conclusion d'un contrat, de son exécution et de sa résiliation.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Shift of spawning season and effects of climate warming on developmental stages of a grayling (Salmonidae)

River-dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62-year-long (1948-2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30-40 years.