Bubbles and capital flows

This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles absorb local savings, eliminating inefficient investments and liberating resources that are in part used to invest in high productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as a substitute for international capital flows, improving the international allocation of investment and reducing rate-of-return differentials across countries. This view of asset price bubbles could eventually provide a simple account of some real world phenomenae that have been difficult to model before, such as the recurrence and depth of financial crises or their puzzling tendency to propagate across countries.

Capital goods imports and investments in Latin America in the mid 1920s

The assessment of Latin American long term economic performance is in urgent need ofmobilizing more data to match the pressing demands of growth analysts. We present asystematic comparison of capital goods imports for 20 Latin American countries in 1925. It relies on both the foreign trade data of the importing countries and of the major exporting countries the industrialized economies of the time. The quality of foreign trade figures is tested; an homogeneous estimate of capital goods imported is derived, and its per capita ranking is discussed providing new light on Latin American development levels before import substitution.

Effects of uncertain lifetime and annuity insurance on capital accumulation and growth

This paper studies the effects of uncertain lifetime on capitalaccumulation and growth and also the sensitivity of thoseeffects to the existence of a perfect annuities market. Themodel is an overlapping generations model with uncertainlifetimes. The technology is convex and such that the marginalproduct of capital is bounded away from zero. A contribution ofthis paper is to show that the existence of accidental bequestsmay lead the economy to an equilibrium that exhibits asymptoticgrowth, which is impossible in an economy with a perfect annuitiesmarket or with certain lifetimes. This paper also shows that ifindividuals face a positive probability of surviving in everyperiod, they may be willing to save at any age. This effect ofuncertain lifetime on savings may also lead the economy to anequilibrium exhibiting asymptotic growth even if there exists aperfect annuities market.

Organizational capital and employment fluctuations

In this paper I present a model in which production requires two types of labor inputs: regular productive tasks and organizational capital, which is accumulated by workers performing organizational tasks. By allocating more workers from organizational to productive tasks, firms can temporarily increase production without hiring. The availability of this intensive margin of labor adjustment, in combination with adjustment costs along the extensive margin (search frictions, firing costs, training costs), makes it optimal to delay employment adjustments. Simulations indicate that this mechanism is quantitatively important even if only a small fraction of workers perform organizational tasks, and explains why the hiring rate is persistent and why employment is slow to recover after the end of a recession.

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Quantifying quantitative literacy: Age heaping and the history of human capital

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at round or attractive ages, such as even numbers and multiples of five. This phenomenon of age heaping has been viewed as a problem in previous research, especially in demography and epidemiology. We see it as an opportunity and propose its use as a measure of human capital that can yield comparable estimates across a wide range of historical contexts. A simulation study yields methodological guidelines for measuring and interpreting differences in ageheaping, while analysis of contemporary and historical datasets demonstrates the existence of a robust correlation between age heaping and literacy at both the individual and aggregate level. To illustrate the method, we generate estimates of human capital in Europe over the very long run, which support the hypothesis of a major increase in human capital preceding the industrial revolution.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.

Growth accounting in items of turbulence and death: efficiency, technology, capital accumulation and human capital 1929-1950

We employ a non-parametrical approach to growth accounting (Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA) to disentangle the proximate sources of labour productivity growth in 41 nationsbetween 1929 and 1950 by decomposing productivity growth into four components:technological change; efficiency catch-up (movements towards the production frontier),capital accumulation and human capital accumulation. We show that efficiency catch-upgenerally explains productivity growth, whereas technological change and factoraccumulation were limited and distorted by the effects of war. War clearly hamperedefficiency. Moreover, an unbalanced ratio of human capital to physical capital (a gap to thetechnological leader) was crucial for efficiency catching-up.

Adjustment to target capital, finance and growth

Does financial development result in capital being reallocated more rapidly to industries where it is most productive? We argue that if this was the case, financially developed countries should see faster growth in industries with investment opportunities due to global demand and productivity shifts. Testing this cross-industry cross-country growth implication requires proxies for (latent) global industry investment opportunities. We show that tests relying only on data from specific (benchmark) countries may yield spurious evidence for or against the hypothesis. We therefore develop an alternative approach that combines benchmark-country proxies with a proxy that does not reflect opportunities specific to a country or level of financial development. Our empirical results yield clear support for the capital reallocation hypothesis.

Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents,dubbed gross capital flows, over the business cycle and during financial crises. We show thatgross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. Whenforeigners invest in a country, domestic agents invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flowsare also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners invest more domestically and domesticagents invest more abroad. During crises, total gross flows collapse and there is a retrenchmentin both inflows by foreigners and outflows by domestic agents. These patterns hold for differenttypes of capital flows and crises. This evidence sheds light on the sources of fluctuations drivingcapital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. Our findings seem consistent withcrises affecting domestic and foreign agents asymmetrically, as would be the case under thepresence of sovereign risk or asymmetric information.

Indentifying human capital externalities: Theory with an application to US cities

The identification of aggregate human capital externalities is still not fully understood. The existing (Mincerian) approach confounds positive externalities with wage changes due to a downward sloping demand curve for human capital. As a result, it yields positive externalities even when wages equal marginal social products. We propose an approach that identifies human capital externalities whether or not aggregate demand for human capital slopes downward. Another advantage of our approach is that it does not require estimates of the individual return to human capital. Applications to US cities and states between 1970 and 1990 yield no evidence of significant average -schooling externalities.

International capital flows and credit market imperfections: A tale of two frictions

The financial crisis of 2007-08 has underscored the importance of adverse selection in financialmarkets. This friction has been mostly neglected by macroeconomic models of financialimperfections, however, which have focused almost exclusively on the effects of limited pledgeability.In this paper, we fill this gap by developing a standard growth model with adverseselection. Our main results are that, by fostering unproductive investment, adverse selection:(i) leads to an increase in the economy s equilibrium interest rate, and; (ii) it generates a negativewedge between the marginal return to investment and the equilibrium interest rate. Underfinancial integration, we show how this translates into excessive capital inflows and endogenouscycles. We also extend our model to the more general case in which adverse selection and limitedpledgeability coexist. We conclude that both frictions complement one another and show thatlimited pledgeability exacerbates the effects of adverse selection.

EDUCAÇÃO E CAPITAL SOCIAL PARA O DESENVOLVIMENTO SUSTENTÁVEL DA COMUNIDADE PISCATÓRIA EM CABO VERDE

A educação, a formação e o desenvolvimento do capital social é uma das questões prioritárias e que deve ser tido em consideração, sobretudo no que diz respeito ao desenvolvimento das comunidades piscatórias em Cabo Verde. Precisa-se de focar essa problemática e, sugerir as medidas e as estratégias que devem estar no centro das atenções dos dirigentes e dos sistemas educativos, reflectindo sobre elas nas comunidades e em termos académicos, tendo presente a importância da educação para o exercício da cidadania. O presente trabalho de investigação tem por objectivo evidenciar a influência da educação na formação do capital social e analisar em que medida é que este pode contribuir para o desenvolvimento sustentável da comunidade piscatória de Cutelinho, situada na Vila de Pedra Badejo, Concelho de Santa Cruz. Em sociedades relativamente homogéneas, como é o caso de Cabo Verde, o capital social pode ser um recurso importante para a promoção do desenvolvimento humano e social, garantindo assim, a qualidade ambiental. A pesquisa é de natureza quantitativa e qualitativa, acreditando-se na complementaridade dos dois métodos de investigação. A triangulação de dados foi feita por meio de questionário/inquérito, entrevista e observação participante, recurso mais básico e fundamental desta investigação. Das análises das avaliações das observações participantes, das informações dos questionários e das entrevistas feitos aos sujeitos da pesquisa, chegou–se a conclusão de que o nível de educação e de capital social na referida comunidade é baixo pelo que a mesma apresenta-se problemas em termos de desenvolvimento

Capital Social e Desenvolvimento Sustentável da Comunidade do Brasil em Achada de Santo António

O presente trabalho que se intitula “Capital Social e Desenvolvimento Sustentável da Comunidade Piscatória do Brasil em Achada de Santo António” enquadra-se no âmbito do curso de licenciatura em Economia e Gestão realizado pela Universidade Jean Piaget de Cabo Verde. A formação e o reforço do capital social são questões que devem ser tidas em consideração, enquanto requisitos indispensáveis ao desenvolvimento das comunidades piscatórias em Cabo Verde e, sendo assim do Brasil em Achada de Santo António, uma vez que esta comunidade depara-se com problemas sócio-economicos, com reflexos negativos no meio ambiente. O presente trabalho de investigação tem, entre outros objetivos, analisar o nível do capital social na comunidade piscatória do Brasil, inteirar-se sobre o grau de participação das pessoas dessa comunidade em ações e projetos de desenvolvimento, identificar as situações em que essas pessoas se unem para se ajudarem, evidenciar a relação entre o nível do capital social e o desenvolvimento dessa comunidade, e assim sugerir medidas de políticas e estratégias a esse respeito.Este estudo foi realizado com base na metodologia com enfoque quantitativo e analítico. Para além do estudo documental, para a obtenção de dados e informação sobre a educação, o capital social e o desenvolvimento, sobretudo para a parte prática do trabalho foram aplicados através de inquéritos por questionário a 50 ( cinquenta ) pessoas, de ambos os sexos, dessa comunidade, escolhidas aleatoriamente. Os resultados do estudo foram apresentados com base em estatísticas descritivas e fez-se testes estatísticos para verificar a dependência/ independência entre as variáveis do estudo. Ainda, a discussão dos resultados de estudo foi feita tendo em consideração o suporte teórico, os objetivos e os pressupostos do trabalho.Com base na análise e discussão dos resultados do trabalho conclui-se que, na comunidade piscatória do Brasil, o nível de capital social dos inquiridos é de 0,57 e, sendo assim, ligeiramente acima da média estabelecida ( 0,50) , e aproveitado pelas pessoas na vida quotidiana, mas não se projeta para as iniciativas sem efeitos imediatos, pelo que pouco tem vindo a contribuir para o desenvolvimento dessa comunidade, o que requer medidas de políticas e estratégias a esse respeito, com realce para a educação para valores, entre os quais a sociabilidade, a cooperação, a entreajuda, a solidariedade e a confiança.

Traité général de science économique / par Christian Cornélissen. T. 3, Théorie du capital et du profit

Collection : Bibliothèque internationale d'économie politique ; 87-88