Opioid maintenance therapy in Switzerland: an overview of the Swiss IMPROVE study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Switzerland's drug policy model has always been unique and progressive, but there is a need to reassess this system in a rapidly changing world. The IMPROVE study was conducted to gain understanding of the attitudes and beliefs towards opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) in Switzerland with regards to quality and access to treatment. To obtain a "real-world" view on OMT, the study approached its goals from two different angles: from the perspectives of the OMT patients and of the physicians who treat patients with maintenance therapy. The IMPROVE study collected a large body of data on OMT in Switzerland. This paper presents a small subset of the dataset, focusing on the research design and methodology, the profile of the participants and the responses to several key questions addressed by the questionnaires. METHODS: IMPROVE was an observational, questionnaire-based cross-sectional study on OMT conducted in Switzerland. Respondents consisted of OMT patients and treating physicians from various regions of the country. Data were collected using questionnaires in German and French. Physicians were interviewed by phone with a computer-based questionnaire. Patients self-completed a paper-based questionnaire at the physicians' offices or OMT treatment centres. RESULTS: A total of 200 physicians and 207 patients participated in the study. Liquid methadone and methadone tablets or capsules were the medications most commonly prescribed by physicians (60% and 20% of patient load, respectively) whereas buprenorphine use was less frequent. Patients (88%) and physicians (83%) were generally satisfied with the OMT currently offered. The current political framework and lack of training or information were cited as determining factors that deter physicians from engaging in OMT. About 31% of OMT physicians interviewed were ≥60 years old, indicating an ageing population. Diversion and misuse were considered a significant problem in Switzerland by 45% of the physicians. CONCLUSION: The subset of IMPROVE data presented gives a present-day, real-life overview of the OMT landscape in Switzerland. It represents a valuable resource for policy makers, key opinion leaders and drug addiction researchers and will be a useful basis for improving the current Swiss OMT model.

HLA Class I alleles associated with HCV polymorphisms and response to antiviral therapy in HCV genotype 1-infected patients

Aims: The adaptive immune response against hepatitis C virus (HCV) is significantly shaped by the host's composition of HLA alleles. Thus, the HLA phenotype is a critical determinant of viral evolution during adaptive immune pressure. Potential associations of HLA class I alleles with polymorphisms of HCV immune escape variants are largely unknown. Methods: Direct sequence analysis of the genes encoding the HCV proteins E2, NS3 and NS5B in a cohort of 159 patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection who were treated with pegylated interferon-alfa 2b and ribavirin in a prospective controlled trial for 48 weeks was exhibited. HLA class I genotyping was performed by strand-specific reverse hybridization with the INNO-LiPA line probe assays for HLA-A and HLA-B and by strand-specific PCR-SSP. We analyzed each amino acid position of HCV proteins using an extension of Fisher's exact test for associations with HLA alleles. In addition, associations of specific HLA alleles with inflammatory activity, liver fibrosis, HCV RNA viral load and virologic treatment outcome were investigated. Results: Separate analyses of HCV subtype 1a and 1b isolates revealed substantially different patterns of HLA-restricted polymorphisms between subtypes. Only one polymorphism within NS5B (V2758x) was significantly associated with HLA B*15 in HCV genotype 1b infected patients (adjusted p=0,048). However, a number of HLA class I-restricted polymorphisms within novel putative HCV CD8+ T cell epitopes (genotype 1a: HLA-A*11 GTRTIASPK1086-1094 [NS3], HLA-B*07 WPAPQGARSL1111-1120 [NS3]; genotype 1b: HLA-A*24 HYAPRPCGI488-496 [E2], HLA-B*44 GENETDVLL530-538 [E2], HLA-B*15 RVFTEAMTRY2757-2766 [NS5B]) were observed with high predicted epitope binding scores assessed by the web-based software SYFPEITHI (>21). Most of the identified putative epitopes were overlapping with already otherwise published epitopes, indicating a high immunogenicity of the accordant HCV protein region. In addition, certain HLA class I alleles were associated with inflammatory activity, stage of liver fibrosis, and sustained virologic response to antiviral therapy. Conclusions: HLA class I restricted HCV sequence polymorphisms are rare. HCV polymorphisms identified within putative HCV CD8+ T cell epitopes in the present study differ in their genomic distribution between genotype 1a and 1b isolates, implying divergent adaptation to the host's immune pressure on the HCV subtype level.

Age above 60 years is not a negative predictive factor for combined antiviral therapy with pegylated interferon alpha and ribavirin in hepatitis C patients

Background: Age is frequently discussed as negative host factor to achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) to antiviral hepatitis C therapy. However, elderly patients often show relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis which is a known negative predictive factor, making it difficult to interpret age as an independent predictive factor. Methods: From the framework of the Swiss hepatitis C cohort (SCCS), we collected data from 545 antiviral hepatitis C therapies, including data from 67 hepatitis C patients ≥ 60 y who had been treated with PEG-interferon and ribavirin. We analyzed host factors (age, gender, fibrosis, haemoglobin, depression, earlier hepatitis C treatment), viral factors (genotype, viral load) and treatment course (early virological response, end of treatment response, SVR). Generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression modelling was used for the primary end point (SVR), with age ≥ 60 y and < 60 y as independent variable and gender, presence of cirrhosis, genotype, earlier treatment and viral load as confounders. SVR was analysed in young and elderly patients after matching for these confounders. Additionally, classification tree analysis was done in elderly patients using these confounders. Results: SVR analyzed in 545 patients was 55%. In genotype 1/4, SVR was 42.9% in 259 patients < 60 y and 26.1% in 46 patients ≥ 60 y. In genotype 2/3, SVR was 74.4% in 215 patients < 60 y and 84% in 25 patients ≥ 60 y. However, GEE model showed that age had no influence on achieving SVR (Odds ratio 0.91). Confounders influenced SVR as known from previous studies (cirrhosis, genotype 1/4, previous treatment and viral load >600'000 IE/ml as negative predictive factors). When young and elderly patients were matched (analysis in 59 elderly patients), SVR was not different in these patient groups (54.2% and 55.9%, resp.; p=0.795 in binomial test). The classification tree-derived best criterion for SVR in elderly patients was genotype, with no further criteria relevant for predicting SVR in genotype 2/3. In patients with genotype 1/4, further criteria were presence of cirrhosis and low viral load <600'000 IE/ml in non-cirrhotic patients. Conclusions: Age is not a relevant predictive factor for achieving SVR, when confounders were taken into account. In terms of effectiveness of antiviral therapy, age does not play a major role and should not be regarded as relevant negative predictive factor. Since life expectancy in Switzerland at age 60 is more than 22 y, hepatitis C therapy is reasonable in elderly patients with known relevant fibrosis or cirrhosis, because interferon-based hepatitis C therapy improves survival and reduces carcinogenesis.

Participation in a population-based physical activity programme as an aid for smoking cessation: a randomised trial.

OBJECTIVES: Exercise combined with nicotine therapy may help smoking cessation and minimise weight gain after quitting. Low participation in vigorous-intensity physical activity programmes precludes their population-wide applicability. In a randomised controlled trial, we tested whether a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme increases quit rates among sedentary smokers receiving nicotine therapy. METHODS: Participants (n=481; 57% male; mean age, 42.2 years (SD 10.1); mean cigarette consumption, 27 (SD 10.2) per day) were offered a nine-week smoking cessation programme consisting of a weekly 15-minute counselling session and the prescription of nicotine replacement therapy. In addition, participants in the physical activity group (n=229) also took part in a programme of moderate-intensity physical activity implemented at the national level, and offering nine weekly 60-minute sessions of physical activity. To ensure equal contact conditions, participants in the control group (n=252) attended weekly 60-minute health behaviour education sessions unrelated to physical activity. The primary outcome was continuous CO-verified smoking abstinence rates at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Continuous smoking abstinence rates were high and similar in the physical activity group and the control group at the end of the intervention (47% versus 46%, p=0.81) and at 1-year follow-up (27% versus 29%, p=0.71). The mean weight gain after one year was 4.4 kg and 6.2 kg among sustained quitters of the physical activity and control groups, respectively (p=0.06). CONCLUSION: Participation in a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme for 9 weeks in addition to a comprehensive smoking cessation programme did not significantly increase smoking cessation rates. A non-significant reduction in weight gain was observed among participants who quit smoking in the physical activity group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; US National Institutes for Health (available online at http://clinicaltrials.gov/; CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00521391).

Multi-receptor binding profile of clozapine and olanzapine: a structural study based on the new beta (2) adrenergic receptor template

Schizophrenia is a devastating mental disorder that has a largeimpact on the quality of life for those who are afflicted and isvery costly for families and society.[1] Although the etiology ofschizophrenia is still unknown and no cure has yet beenfound, it is treatable, and pharmacological therapy often producessatisfactory results. Among the various antipsychoticdrugs in use, clozapine is widely recognized as one ofthemost clinically effective agents, even if it elicits significant sideeffects such as metabolic disorders and agranulocytosis. Clozapineand the closely related compound olanzapine are goodexamples ofdrug s with a complex multi-receptor profile ;[2]they have affinities toward serotonin, dopamine, a adrenergic,muscarinic, and histamine receptors, among others.

A model of cellular dosimetry for macroscopic tumors in radiopharmaceutical therapy.

PURPOSE: In the radiopharmaceutical therapy approach to the fight against cancer, in particular when it comes to translating laboratory results to the clinical setting, modeling has served as an invaluable tool for guidance and for understanding the processes operating at the cellular level and how these relate to macroscopic observables. Tumor control probability (TCP) is the dosimetric end point quantity of choice which relates to experimental and clinical data: it requires knowledge of individual cellular absorbed doses since it depends on the assessment of the treatment's ability to kill each and every cell. Macroscopic tumors, seen in both clinical and experimental studies, contain too many cells to be modeled individually in Monte Carlo simulation; yet, in particular for low ratios of decays to cells, a cell-based model that does not smooth away statistical considerations associated with low activity is a necessity. The authors present here an adaptation of the simple sphere-based model from which cellular level dosimetry for macroscopic tumors and their end point quantities, such as TCP, may be extrapolated more reliably. METHODS: Ten homogenous spheres representing tumors of different sizes were constructed in GEANT4. The radionuclide 131I was randomly allowed to decay for each model size and for seven different ratios of number of decays to number of cells, N(r): 1000, 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, and 10 decays per cell. The deposited energy was collected in radial bins and divided by the bin mass to obtain the average bin absorbed dose. To simulate a cellular model, the number of cells present in each bin was calculated and an absorbed dose attributed to each cell equal to the bin average absorbed dose with a randomly determined adjustment based on a Gaussian probability distribution with a width equal to the statistical uncertainty consistent with the ratio of decays to cells, i.e., equal to Nr-1/2. From dose volume histograms the surviving fraction of cells, equivalent uniform dose (EUD), and TCP for the different scenarios were calculated. Comparably sized spherical models containing individual spherical cells (15 microm diameter) in hexagonal lattices were constructed, and Monte Carlo simulations were executed for all the same previous scenarios. The dosimetric quantities were calculated and compared to the adjusted simple sphere model results. The model was then applied to the Bortezomib-induced enzyme-targeted radiotherapy (BETR) strategy of targeting Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-expressing cancers. RESULTS: The TCP values were comparable to within 2% between the adjusted simple sphere and full cellular models. Additionally, models were generated for a nonuniform distribution of activity, and results were compared between the adjusted spherical and cellular models with similar comparability. The TCP values from the experimental macroscopic tumor results were consistent with the experimental observations for BETR-treated 1 g EBV-expressing lymphoma tumors in mice. CONCLUSIONS: The adjusted spherical model presented here provides more accurate TCP values than simple spheres, on par with full cellular Monte Carlo simulations while maintaining the simplicity of the simple sphere model. This model provides a basis for complementing and understanding laboratory and clinical results pertaining to radiopharmaceutical therapy.

Detection of four Plasmodium species in blood from humans by 18S rRNA gene subunit-based and specific real-time PCR assays

Résumé : Un nombre croissant de cas de malaria chez les voyageurs et migrants a été rapporté. Bien que l'analyse microscopique des frottis sanguins reste traditionnellement l'outil diagnostic de référence, sa fiabilité dépend considérablement de l'expertise de l'examinateur, pouvant elle-même faire défaut sous nos latitudes. Une PCR multiplex en temps réel a donc été développée en vue d'une standardisation du diagnostic. Un ensemble d'amorces génériques ciblant une région hautement conservée du gène d'ARN ribosomial 18S du genre Plasmodium a tout d'abord été conçu, dont le polymorphisme du produit d'amplification semblait suffisant pour créer quatre sondes spécifiques à l'espèce P. falciparum, P. malariae, P. vivax et P. ovale. Ces sondes utilisées en PCR en temps réel se sont révélées capables de détecter une seule copie de plasmide de P. falciparum, P. malariae, P. vivax et P. ovale spécifiquement. La même sensibilité a été obtenue avec une sonde de screening pouvant détecter les quatre espèces. Quatre-vingt-dix-sept échantillons de sang ont ensuite été testés, dont on a comparé la microscopie et la PCR en temps réel pour 66 (60 patients) d'entre eux. Ces deux méthodes ont montré une concordance globale de 86% pour la détection de plasmodia. Les résultats discordants ont été réévalués grâce à des données cliniques, une deuxième expertise microscopique et moléculaire (laboratoire de Genève et de l'Institut Suisse Tropical de Bâle), ainsi qu'à l'aide du séquençage. Cette nouvelle analyse s'est prononcé en faveur de la méthode moléculaire pour tous les neuf résultats discordants. Sur les 31 résultats positifs par les deux méthodes, la même réévaluation a pu donner raison 8 fois sur 9 à la PCR en temps réel sur le plan de l'identification de l'espèce plasmodiale. Les 31 autres échantillons ont été analysés pour le suivi de sept patients sous traitement antimalarique. Il a été observé une baisse rapide du nombre de parasites mesurée par la PCR en temps réel chez six des sept patients, baisse correspondant à la parasitémie déterminée microscopiquement. Ceci suggère ainsi le rôle potentiel de la PCR en temps réel dans le suivi thérapeutique des patients traités par antipaludéens. Abstract : There have been reports of increasing numbers of cases of malaria among migrants and travelers. Although microscopic examination of blood smears remains the "gold standard" in diagnosis, this method suffers from insufficient sensitivity and requires considerable expertise. To improve diagnosis, a multiplex real-time PCR was developed. One set of generic primers targeting a highly conserved region of the 18S rRNA gene of the genus Plasmodium was designed; the primer set was polymorphic enough internally to design four species-specific probes for P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malarie, and P. ovale. Real-time PCR with species-specific probes detected one plasmid copy of P. falciparum, P. vivax, P. malariae, and P. ovale specifically. The same sensitivity was achieved for all species with real-time PCR with the 18S screening probe. Ninety-seven blood samples were investigated. For 66 of them (60 patients), microscopy and real-time PCR results were compared and had a crude agreement of 86% for the detection of plasmodia. Discordant results were reevaluated with clinical, molecular, and sequencing data to resolve them. All nine discordances between 18S screening PCR and microscopy were resolved in favor of the molecular method, as were eight of nine discordances at the species level for the species-specific PCR among the 31 samples positive by both methods. The other 31 blood samples were tested to monitor the antimalaria treatment in seven patients. The number of parasites measured by real-time PCR fell rapidly for six out of seven patients in parallel to parasitemia determined microscopically. This suggests a role of quantitative PCR for the monitoring of patients receiving antimalaria therapy.

The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation provisional criteria for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a provisional definition for the evaluation of response to therapy in juvenile dermatomyositis (DM) based on the Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation juvenile DM core set of variables. METHODS: Thirty-seven experienced pediatric rheumatologists from 27 countries achieved consensus on 128 difficult patient profiles as clinically improved or not improved using a stepwise approach (patient's rating, statistical analysis, definition selection). Using the physicians' consensus ratings as the "gold standard measure," chi-square, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive and-negative rates, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and kappa agreement for candidate definitions of improvement were calculated. Definitions with kappa values >0.8 were multiplied by the face validity score to select the top definitions. RESULTS: The top definition of improvement was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 1 of the remaining worsening by more than 30%, which cannot be muscle strength. The second-highest scoring definition was at least 20% improvement from baseline in 3 of 6 core set variables with no more than 2 of the remaining worsening by more than 25%, which cannot be muscle strength (definition P1 selected by the International Myositis Assessment and Clinical Studies group). The third is similar to the second with the maximum amount of worsening set to 30%. This indicates convergent validity of the process. CONCLUSION: We propose a provisional data-driven definition of improvement that reflects well the consensus rating of experienced clinicians, which incorporates clinically meaningful change in core set variables in a composite end point for the evaluation of global response to therapy in juvenile DM.

Appropriateness of early management of newly diagnosed Crohn's disease in a European population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy (EPACT) has developed appropriateness criteria. We have applied these criteria retrospectively to the population-based inception cohort of Crohn's disease (CD) patients of the European Collaborative Study Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 426 diagnosed CD patients from 13 European centers were enrolled at the time of diagnosis (first flare, naive patients). We used the EPACT definitions to identify 247 patients with active luminal CD. We then assessed the appropriateness of the initial drug prescription according to the EPACT criteria. RESULTS: Among the cohort patients 163 suffered from mild-to-moderate CD and 84 from severe CD. Among the mild-to-moderate disease group, 96 patients (59%) received an appropriate treatment, whereas for 66 patients (40%) the treatment was uncertain and in one case (1%) inappropriate. Among the severe disease group, 86% were treated medically and 14% required surgery. 59 (70%) were appropriately treated, whereas for one patient (1%) the procedure was considered uncertain and for 24 patients (29%) inappropriate. CONCLUSION: Initial treatment was appropriate in the majority of cases for non-complicated luminal CD. Inappropriate or uncertain treatment was given in a significant minority of patients, with an increased potential risk of adverse events.

Role of T-cell-mediated inflammation in psoriasis: pathogenesis and targeted therapy

Psoriasis is one of the most common chronic, inflammatory, T-cell-mediated autoimmune diseases. Over the past decade, increased knowledge of disease pathogenesis has fundamentally changed psoriasis treatment, with the introduction of biologics, and this has led to a multitude of improved selective targets providing potential therapeutic options. Indeed, numerous pathogenesis-based treatments are currently in development, as psoriasis has also become increasingly relevant for proof-of-concept studies. The purpose of this review was to summarize current knowledge of psoriasis immunopathogenesis, focusing on the T-cell-mediated immune response and its initiation. The authors describe recent advances in psoriasis treatment and discuss pathogenesis-based therapies that are currently in development or which could be envisioned for the future. Although current biologics are well tolerated, several issues such as long-term efficacy, long-term safety, and high costs keep driving the search for new and better therapies. With further advances in understanding disease pathogenesis, more genomic data from psoriasis patients becoming available, and potentially the identification of autoantigens in psoriasis, current research should lead to the development of a growing arsenal of improved targeted treatments and to further breakthrough immunotherapies.

Efficiency of recombinant human TNF in human cancer therapy.

Recombinant human tumour necrosis factor (TNF) has a selective effect on angiogenic vessels in tumours. Given that it induces vasoplegia, its clinical use has been limited to administration through isolated limb perfusion (ILP) for regionally advanced melanomas and soft tissue sarcomas of the limbs. When combined with the alkylating agent melphalan, a single ILP produces a very high objective response rate. In melanoma, the complete response (CR) rate is around 80% and the overall objective response rate greater than 90%. In soft tissue sarcomas that are inextirpable, ILP is a neoadjuvant treatment resulting in limb salvage in 80% of the cases. The CR rate averages 20% and the objective response rate is around 80%. The mode of action of TNF-based ILP involves two distinct and successive effects on the tumour-associated vasculature: first, an increase in endothelium permeability leading to improved chemotherapy penetration within the tumour tissue, and second, a selective killing of angiogenic endothelial cells resulting in tumour vessel destruction. The mechanism whereby these events occur involves rapid (of the order of minutes) perturbation of cell-cell adhesive junctions and inhibition of alphavbeta3 integrin signalling in tumour-associated vessels, followed by massive death of endothelial cells and tumour vascular collapse 24 hours later. New, promising approaches for the systemic use of TNF in cancer therapy include TNF targeting by means of single chain antibodies or endothelial cell ligands, or combined administration with drugs perturbing integrin-dependent signalling and sensitizing angiogenic endothelial cells to TNF-induced death.

Ethical dimension of circle Integrative Community Therapy on qualitative research

This study discusses ethical issues in research involving human beings and seeks to understand the relationship between qualitative research and the ethical care guidelines for Integrative Community Therapy (ICT) circles based on Resolution 466/12 of the National Health Council of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. This is documentary research, which analyzed Resolution 466/12 and ICT circles seeking to make a connection between the ethical guidelines contained in both. The analysis of the corpus was directed toward the construction of the following results: the person's perception, cultural diversity and community. It also brings in consideration of the influence of the ethical dimension of the ICT circles on qualitative research. We conclude that ICT circles are innovative in the sense of the diversity of participants and respect for cultural and social differences. Thus, ICT circles promote acquisition of quality information for social research as well as compliance with the ethical guidelines outlined in Resolution No. 466/12.

Comparison of neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy versus radiochemotherapy followed by resection for stage III (N2) NSCLC.

OBJECTIVE: Comparison of prospectively treated patients with neoadjuvant cisplatin-based chemotherapy vs radiochemotherapy followed by resection for mediastinoscopically proven stage III N2 non-small cell lung cancer with respect to postoperative morbidity, pathological nodal downstaging, overall and disease-free survival, and site of recurrence. METHODS: Eighty-two patients were enrolled between January 1994 to June 2003, 36 had cisplatin and doxetacel-based chemotherapy (group I) and 46 cisplatin-based radiochemotherapy up to 44 Gy (group II), either as sequential (25 patients) or concomitant (21 patients) treatment. All patients had evaluation of absence of distant metastases by bone scintigraphy, thoracoabdominal CT scan or PET scan, and brain MRI, and all underwent pre-induction mediastinoscopy, resection and mediastinal lymph node dissection by the same surgeon. RESULTS: Group I and II comprised T1/2 tumors in 47 and 28%, T3 tumors in 45 and 41%, and T4 tumors in 8 and 31% of the patients, respectively (P=0.03). There was a similar distribution of the extent of resection (lobectomy, sleeve lobectomy, left and right pneumonectomy) in both groups (P=0.9). Group I and II revealed a postoperative 90-d mortality of 3 and 4% (P=0.6), a R0-resection rate of 92 and 94% (P=0.9), and a pathological mediastinal downstaging in 61 and 78% of the patients (P<0.01), respectively. 5y-overall survival and disease-free survival of all patients were 40 and 36%, respectively, without significant difference between T1-3 and T4 tumors. There was no significant difference in overall survival rate in either induction regimens, however, radiochemotherapy was associated with a longer disease-free survival than chemotherapy (P=0.04). There was no significant difference between concurrent vs sequential radiochemotherapy with respect to postoperative morbidity, resectability, pathological nodal downstaging, survival and disease-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Neoadjuvant cisplatin-based radiochemotherapy was associated with a similar postoperative mortality, an increased pathological nodal downstaging and a better disease-free survival as compared to cisplatin doxetacel-based chemotherapy in patients with stage III (N2) NSCLC although a higher number of T4 tumors were admitted to radiochemotherapy.

Development and Validation of Decision Rules to Guide Frequency of Monitoring CD4 Cell Count in HIV-1 Infection before Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.Methodology/Principal Findings: We built up two prediction rules ("Snap-shot rule" for a single sample and "Track-shot rule" for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior >= 5% or < 5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200x10(6)/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.Conclusions/Significance: Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count > 650 for a threshold of 200, > 900 for 350, or > 1150 for 500x10(6)/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.