Modeling U.S. Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach

This paper uses an infinite hidden Markov model (IIHMM) to analyze U.S. inflation dynamics with a particular focus on the persistence of inflation. The IHMM is a Bayesian nonparametric approach to modeling structural breaks. It allows for an unknown number of breakpoints and is a flexible and attractive alternative to existing methods. We found a clear structural break during the recent financial crisis. Prior to that, inflation persistence was high and fairly constant.

Corruption and Financial Intermediation in a Panel of Regions: Cross-Border Effects of Corruption

The importance of financial market reforms in combating corruption has been highlighted in the theoretical literature but has not been systemically tested empirically. In this study we provide a first pass at testing this relationship using both linear and nonmonotonic forms of the relationship between corruption and financial intermediation. Our study finds a negative and statistically significant impact of financial intermediation on corruption. Specifically, the results imply that a one standard deviation increase in financial intermediation is associated with a decrease in corruption of 0.20 points, or 16 percent of the standard deviation in the corruption index and this relationship is shown to be robust to a variety of specification changes, including: (i) different sets of control variables; (ii) different econometrics techniques; (iii) different sample sizes; (iv) alternative corruption indices; (v) removal of outliers; (vi) different sets of panels; and (vii) allowing for cross country interdependence, contagion effects, of corruption.

Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Health and income: a robust comparison of Canada and the US

This paper uses sequential stochastic dominance procedures to compare the joint distribution of health and income across space and time. It is the First application of which we are aware of methods to compare multidimensional distributions of income and health using procedures that are robust to aggregation techniques. The paper's approach is more general than comparisons of health gradients and does not require the estimation of health equivalent incomes. We illustrate the approach by contrasting Canada and the US using comparable data. Canada dominates the US over the lower bidimensional welfare distribution of health and income, though not generally in terms of the uni-dimensional distribution of health or income. The paper also finds that welfare for both Canadians and Americans has not unambiguously improved during the last decade over the joint distribution of income and health, in spite of the fact that the uni-dimensional distributions of income have clearly improved during that period.

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

Three-dimensional slope stability analysis of South Peak, Crowsnest Pass, Alberta, Canada

South Peak is a 7-Mm3 potentially unstable rock mass located adjacent to the 1903 Frank Slide on Turtle Mountain, Alberta. This paper presents three-dimensional numerical rock slope stability models and compares them with a previous conceptual slope instability model based on discontinuity surfaces identified using an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM). Rock mass conditions at South Peak are described using the Geological Strength Index and point load tests, whilst the mean discontinuity set orientations and characteristics are based on approximately 500 field measurements. A kinematic analysis was first conducted to evaluate probable simple discontinuity-controlled failure modes. The potential for wedge failure was further assessed by considering the orientation of wedge intersections over the airborne LiDAR DEM and through a limit equilibrium combination analysis. Block theory was used to evaluate the finiteness and removability of blocks in the rock mass. Finally, the complex interaction between discontinuity sets and the topography within South Peak was investigated through three-dimensional distinct element models using the code 3DEC. The influence of individual discontinuity sets, scale effects, friction angle and the persistence along the discontinuity surfaces on the slope stability conditions were all investigated using this code.

Terrestrial Lidar investigation of the 2004 rockslide along Petit Champlain Street, Québec City (Quebec, Canada)

Au cours des 240 dernières années, 53 mouvements de versant se sont produits le long du promontoire de Québec, causant la mort de 88 personnes principalement lors de chutes de blocs. En octobre 2004, un petit éboulement a atteint la route dans une zone proche de l'éboulement de 1889 qui a tué 35 personnes et blessé 30 autres. Une image 3D a été créée par l'utilisation d'un scanner Lidar terrestre (SLT). Les sept familles de joints identifiées sont en accord avec les mesures effectuées dans de précédentes études. L'imagerie SLT a aussi permit d'estimer les volumes des instabilités passées et d'en analyser le mécanisme : un glissement rocheux qui affecte des blocs débités en parallélépipèdes par d'autres familles de joints. De plus la zone étudiée montre qu'elle est favorable aux chutes de blocs.

Commentary on: Berger-Karin C, Hendricks U, Geyer-Lippmann J. Comparison of natural and artificial aging of ballpoint inks

We would like to comment this study recently published in JFS. It is a short technical note proposing an artificial aging technique for the dating of ballpoint pen inks. This is a very difficult and controversial topic, and we are worried about the nature of this paper. The authors propose several ideas to differentiate fast aging and slow aging inks, but their experimental data is not validly represented and/or discussed. The data is insufficient to draw any conclusions about any potential of the method for ink dating purposes. This lack of information on the subject must be filled before proposing such methods for practical caseworks. These are preliminary and unconvincing results from development research performed in a laboratory on controlled samples without due warnings about potential shortcomings. They cannot be used or even compared to results obtained in real situations on uncontrolled specimens of limited size, unknown composition and undefined storage conditions. This can leave an undeserved feeling that these methods are ready for implementation when the task of ensuring their scientific validity is still far away.

Juridical double taxation by cross border transactions: the Block Case (C-67/08)

Treaty Establishing the European Community, operative until December 1st 2009, had already established in its article 2 the mission of the up until then European Community and actual European Union is to promote an harmonious, equilibrated and sustainable development of the economic activities of the whole Community. This Mission must be achieved by establishing a Common Market, an Economic and Monetary Union and the realization of Common Policies. One of the instruments to obtain these objectives is the use of free circulation of people, services and capitals inside the Common and Interior Market of the European Union. The European Union is characterized by the confirmation of the total movement of capitals, services and individuals and legal peoples’ freedom; freedom that was already predicated by the Maastricht Treaty, through the suppression of whatever obstacles which are in the way of the objectives before exposed. The old TEC in its Title III, now Title IV of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, covered the free circulation of people, services and capitals. Consequently, the inclusion of this mechanism inside one of the regulating texts of the European Union indicates the importance this freedom supposes for the European Union objectives’ development. Once stood up the relevance of the free movement of people, services and capitals, we must mention that in this paper we are going to centre our study in one of these freedoms of movement: the free movement of capital. In order to analyze in detail the free movement of capital within the European framework, we are going to depart from the analysis of the existent case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union. The use of jurisprudence is basic to know how Community legislation is interpreted. For this reason, we are going to develop this work through judgements dictated by the European Union Court. This way we can observe how Member States’ regulating laws and the European Common Law affect the free movement of capital. The starting point of this paper will be the Judgement C-67/08 European Court of Justice of February 12th 2009, known as Block case. So, following the argumentation the Luxemburg Court did about the mentioned case, we are going to develop how free movement of capital could be affected by the current disparity of Member States’ legislation. This disparity can produce double taxation cases due to the lack of tax harmonized legislation within the interior market and the lack of treaties to avoid double taxation within the European Union. Developing this idea we are going to see how double taxation, at least indirectly, can infringe free movement of capital.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Involvement of the RNA-binding protein ARE/poly(U)-binding factor 1 (AUF1) in the cytotoxic effects of proinflammatory cytokines on pancreatic beta cells.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Chronic exposure of pancreatic beta cells to proinflammatory cytokines leads to impaired insulin secretion and apoptosis. ARE/poly(U)-binding factor 1 (AUF1) belongs to a protein family that controls mRNA stability and translation by associating with adenosine- and uridine-rich regions of target messengers. We investigated the involvement of AUF1 in cytokine-induced beta cell dysfunction. METHODS: Production and subcellular distribution of AUF1 isoforms were analysed by western blotting. To test for their role in the control of beta cell functions, each isoform was overproduced individually in insulin-secreting cells. The contribution to cytokine-mediated beta cell dysfunction was evaluated by preventing the production of AUF1 isoforms by RNA interference. The effect of AUF1 on the production of potential targets was assessed by western blotting. RESULTS: MIN6 cells and human pancreatic islets were found to produce four AUF1 isoforms (p42>p45>p37>p40). AUF1 isoforms were mainly localised in the nucleus but were partially translocated to the cytoplasm upon exposure of beta cells to cytokines and activation of the ERK pathway. Overproduction of AUF1 did not affect glucose-induced insulin secretion but promoted apoptosis. This effect was associated with a decrease in the production of the anti-apoptotic proteins, B cell leukaemia/lymphoma 2 (BCL2) and myeloid cell leukaemia sequence 1 (MCL1). Silencing of AUF1 isoforms restored the levels of the anti-apoptotic proteins, attenuated the activation of the nuclear factor-κB (NFκB) pathway, and protected the beta cells from cytokine-induced apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings point to a contribution of AUF1 to the deleterious effects of cytokines on beta cell functions and suggest a role for this RNA-binding protein in the early phases of type 1 diabetes.