Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

The Voting Practice of the Fifteen in the UN General Assembly: Convergence and Divergence

The EU has, since the early days of the Community, had the ambition to speak with ‘a single voice’ in international fora, in particular in the United Nations’ General Assembly. This aspiration, which has become more pronounced since the inauguration of the CFSP, has not always been easy to achieve due to domestic or international level factors affecting the EU member states. However, in the last decade there has been a dramatic increase in convergence in the Fifteen’s voting record. This paper contemplates the underlying reasons for such a convergence

Strong reproductive barriers in a narrow hybrid zone of West-Mediterranean green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup) with Plio-Pleistocene divergence

Background One key question in evolutionary biology deals with the mode and rate at which reproductive isolation accumulates during allopatric speciation. Little is known about secondary contacts of recently diverged anuran species. Here we conduct a multi-locus field study to investigate a contact zone between two lineages of green toads with an estimated divergence time of 2.7 My, and report results from preliminary experimental crosses. Results The Sicilian endemic Bufo siculus and the Italian mainland-origin B. balearicus form a narrow hybrid zone east of Mt. Etna. Despite bidirectional mtDNA introgression over a ca. 40 km North-South cline, no F1 hybrids could be found, and nuclear genomes display almost no admixture. Populations from each side of the contact zone showed depressed genetic diversity and very strong differentiation (FST = 0.52). Preliminary experimental crosses point to a slightly reduced fitness in F1 hybrids, a strong hybrid breakdown in backcrossed offspring (F1 x parental, with very few reaching metamorphosis) and a complete and early mortality in F2 (F1 x F1). Conclusion Genetic patterns at the contact zone are molded by drift and selection. Local effective sizes are reduced by the geography and history of the contact zone, B. balearicus populations being at the front wave of a recent expansion (late Pleistocene). Selection against hybrids likely results from intrinsic genomic causes (disruption of coadapted sets of genes in backcrosses and F2-hybrids), possibly reinforced by local adaptation (the ranges of the two taxa roughly coincide with the borders of semiarid and arid climates). The absence of F1 in the field might be due to premating isolation mechanisms. Our results, show that these lineages have evolved almost complete reproductive isolation after some 2.7 My of divergence, contrasting sharply with evidence from laboratory experiments that some anuran species may still produce viable F1 offspring after > 20 My of divergence.

Technological convergence: a strategic perspective

The information and communication technologies (ICT) sectors are in a process of technological convergence. Determinant factors in this process are the liberalisation of the telecommunications markets and technological change. Many firms are engaged in a process of mergers and alliances to position themselves in this new framework. Technological and demand uncertainties are very important. Our objective in this paper is to study the economic determinants of the strategies of the firms. With this aim, we review some key technological and demand aspects. We shed some light on the strategic motivations of the firms by establishing a parallel with the evolution of the retailing sector

NLRP3 inflammasome activation: The convergence of multiple signalling pathways on ROS production?

The NLR family, pyrin domain-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome is a multiprotein complex that activates caspase 1, leading to the processing and secretion of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) and IL-18. The NLRP3 inflammasome is activated by a wide range of danger signals that derive not only from microorganisms but also from metabolic dysregulation. It is unclear how these highly varied stress signals can be detected by a single inflammasome. In this Opinion article, we review the different signalling pathways that have been proposed to engage the NLRP3 inflammasome and suggest a model in which one of the crucial elements for NLRP3 activation is the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS).

Assessment of liver tumor response by high-field (3T) MRI after radiofrequency ablation: Short- and mid-term evolution of diffusion parameters within the ablation zone.

PURPOSE: To compare the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of malignant liver lesions on diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) before and after successful radiofrequency ablation (RF ablation). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-two patients with 43 malignant liver lesions (23/20: metastases/hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC)) underwent liver MRI (3.0T) before (<1month) and after RF ablation (at 1, 3 and 6months) using T2-, gadolinium-enhanced T1- and DWI-weighted MR sequences. Jointly, two radiologists prospectively measured ADCs for each lesion by means of two different regions of interest (ROIs), first including the whole lesion and secondly the area with the visibly most restricted diffusion (MRDA) on ADC map. Changes of ADCs were evaluated with ANOVA and Dunnett tests. RESULTS: Thirty-one patients were successfully treated, while one patient was excluded due to focal recurrence. In metastases (n=22), the ADC in the whole lesion and in MRDA showed an up-and-down evolution. In HCC (n=20), the evolution of ADC was more complex, but with significantly higher values (p=0.013) at 1 and 6months after RF ablation. CONCLUSION: The ADC values of malignant liver lesions successfully treated by RF ablation show a predictable evolution and may help radiologists to monitor tumor response after treatment.

Disease in the dark: molecular characterization of Polychromophilus murinus in temperate zone bats revealed a worldwide distribution of this malaria-like disease.

For a better understanding of the complex coevolutionary processes between hosts and parasites, accurate identification of the actors involved in the interaction is of fundamental importance. Blood parasites of the Order Haemosporidia, responsible for malaria, have become the focus of a broad range of studies in evolutionary biology. Interestingly, molecular-based studies on avian malaria have revealed much higher species diversity than previously inferred with morphology. Meanwhile, studies on bat haemosporidian have been largely neglected. In Europe, only one genus (Polychromophilus) and two species have been morphologically described. To evaluate the presence of potential cryptic species and parasite prevalence, we undertook a molecular characterization of Polychromophilus in temperate zone bats. We used a nested-PCR approach on the cytochrome b mitochondrial gene to detect the presence of parasites in 237 bats belonging to four different species and in the dipteran bat fly Nycteribia kolenatii, previously described as being the vector of Polychromophilus. Polychromophilus murinus was found in the four bat species and in the insect vector with prevalence ranging from 4% for Myotis myotis to 51% for M. daubentoni. By sequencing 682 bp, we then investigated the phylogenetic relationships of Polychromophilus to other published malarial lineages. Seven haplotypes were found, all very closely related, suggesting the presence of a single species in our samples. These haplotypes formed a well-defined clade together with Haemosporidia of tropical bats, revealing a worldwide distribution of this parasite mostly neglected by malarial studies since the 1980s.

Detailed 3D seismic imaging of a fault zone beneath Lake Geneva, Switzerland

An efficient high-resolution (HR) three-dimensional (3D) seismic reflection system for small-scale targets in lacustrine settings was developed. In Lake Geneva, near the city of Lausanne, Switzerland, the offshore extension of a complex fault zone well mapped on land was chosen for testing our system. A preliminary two-dimensional seismic survey indicated structures that include a thin (<40 m) layer of subhorizontal Quaternary sediments that unconformably overlie south-east-dipping Tertiary Molasse beds and a major fault zone (Paudeze Fault Zone) that separates Plateau and Subalpine Molasse (SM) units. A 3D survey was conducted over this test site using a newly developed three-streamer system. It provided high-quality data with a penetration to depths of 300 m below the water bottom of non-aliased signal for dips up to 30degrees and with a maximum vertical resolution of 1.1 m. The data were subjected to a conventional 3D processing sequence that included post-stack time migration. Tests with 3D pre-stack depth migration showed that such techniques can be applied to HR seismic surveys. Delineation of several horizons and fault surfaces reveals the potential for small-scale geologic and tectonic interpretation in three dimensions. Five major seismic facies and their detailed 3D geometries can be distinguished. Three fault surfaces and the top of a molasse surface were mapped in 3D. Analysis of the geometry of these surfaces and their relative orientation suggests that pre-existing structures within the Plateau Molasse (PM) unit influenced later faulting between the Plateau and SM. In particular, a change in strike of the PM bed dip may indicate a fold formed by a regional stress regime, the orientation of which was different from the one responsible for the creation of the Paudeze Fault Zone. This structure might have later influenced the local stress regime and caused the curved shape of the Paudeze Fault in our surveyed area.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Can we continue to neglect genomic variation in introgression rates when inferring the history of speciation? A case study in a Mytilus hybrid zone.

The use of molecular data to reconstruct the history of divergence and gene flow between populations of closely related taxa represents a challenging problem. It has been proposed that the long-standing debate about the geography of speciation can be resolved by comparing the likelihoods of a model of isolation with migration and a model of secondary contact. However, data are commonly only fit to a model of isolation with migration and rarely tested against the secondary contact alternative. Furthermore, most demographic inference methods have neglected variation in introgression rates and assume that the gene flow parameter (Nm) is similar among loci. Here, we show that neglecting this source of variation can give misleading results. We analysed DNA sequences sampled from populations of the marine mussels, Mytilus edulis and M. galloprovincialis, across a well-studied mosaic hybrid zone in Europe and evaluated various scenarios of speciation, with or without variation in introgression rates, using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach. Models with heterogeneous gene flow across loci always outperformed models assuming equal migration rates irrespective of the history of gene flow being considered. By incorporating this heterogeneity, the best-supported scenario was a long period of allopatric isolation during the first three-quarters of the time since divergence followed by secondary contact and introgression during the last quarter. By contrast, constraining migration to be homogeneous failed to discriminate among any of the different models of gene flow tested. Our simulations thus provide statistical support for the secondary contact scenario in the European Mytilus hybrid zone that the standard coalescent approach failed to confirm. Our results demonstrate that genomic variation in introgression rates can have profound impacts on the biological conclusions drawn from inference methods and needs to be incorporated in future studies.