Migration and trade: Theory with an Application to the Eastern- Western European Integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intraindustry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occured between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe. Key Words: Skilled Migration, Gains from Variety, Real Wages, Eastern-Western Europe. JEL Codes: F12, F22, J61.

The Commons and anti-commons problems in the tourism economy

Countries specialised in tourism tend to face two problems with contradictory effects: the commons and the anti-commons, which lead to tourism over- and under-production, respectively. This paper develops a two-period model to analyse the joint effects of both problems on a small and remote tourism economy. Congestion and the complementariness between foreign transport and local tourism services are key features in this type of markets. As a result, direct selling and the presence of foreign tour-operators emerge as possible market arrangements with different implications in terms of welfare and public intervention. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, the existence of tour-operators always leads to tourism over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour-operator does not solve the congestion problem. Lastly, the switch from several tour-operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

New developments and applications in modelling occupational exposure to airborne contaminants

Résumé: L'évaluation de l'exposition aux nuisances professionnelles représente une étape importante dans l'analyse de poste de travail. Les mesures directes sont rarement utilisées sur les lieux même du travail et l'exposition est souvent estimée sur base de jugements d'experts. Il y a donc un besoin important de développer des outils simples et transparents, qui puissent aider les spécialistes en hygiène industrielle dans leur prise de décision quant aux niveaux d'exposition. L'objectif de cette recherche est de développer et d'améliorer les outils de modélisation destinés à prévoir l'exposition. Dans un premier temps, une enquête a été entreprise en Suisse parmi les hygiénistes du travail afin d'identifier les besoins (types des résultats, de modèles et de paramètres observables potentiels). Il a été constaté que les modèles d'exposition ne sont guère employés dans la pratique en Suisse, l'exposition étant principalement estimée sur la base de l'expérience de l'expert. De plus, l'émissions de polluants ainsi que leur dispersion autour de la source ont été considérés comme des paramètres fondamentaux. Pour tester la flexibilité et la précision des modèles d'exposition classiques, des expériences de modélisations ont été effectuées dans des situations concrètes. En particulier, des modèles prédictifs ont été utilisés pour évaluer l'exposition professionnelle au monoxyde de carbone et la comparer aux niveaux d'exposition répertoriés dans la littérature pour des situations similaires. De même, l'exposition aux sprays imperméabilisants a été appréciée dans le contexte d'une étude épidémiologique sur une cohorte suisse. Dans ce cas, certains expériences ont été entreprises pour caractériser le taux de d'émission des sprays imperméabilisants. Ensuite un modèle classique à deux-zone a été employé pour évaluer la dispersion d'aérosol dans le champ proche et lointain pendant l'activité de sprayage. D'autres expériences ont également été effectuées pour acquérir une meilleure compréhension des processus d'émission et de dispersion d'un traceur, en se concentrant sur la caractérisation de l'exposition du champ proche. Un design expérimental a été développé pour effectuer des mesures simultanées dans plusieurs points d'une cabine d'exposition, par des instruments à lecture directe. Il a été constaté que d'un point de vue statistique, la théorie basée sur les compartiments est sensée, bien que l'attribution à un compartiment donné ne pourrait pas se faire sur la base des simples considérations géométriques. Dans une étape suivante, des données expérimentales ont été collectées sur la base des observations faites dans environ 100 lieux de travail différents: des informations sur les déterminants observés ont été associées aux mesures d'exposition des informations sur les déterminants observés ont été associé. Ces différentes données ont été employées pour améliorer le modèle d'exposition à deux zones. Un outil a donc été développé pour inclure des déterminants spécifiques dans le choix du compartiment, renforçant ainsi la fiabilité des prévisions. Toutes ces investigations ont servi à améliorer notre compréhension des outils des modélisations ainsi que leurs limitations. L'intégration de déterminants mieux adaptés aux besoins des experts devrait les inciter à employer cet outil dans leur pratique. D'ailleurs, en augmentant la qualité des outils des modélisations, cette recherche permettra non seulement d'encourager leur utilisation systématique, mais elle pourra également améliorer l'évaluation de l'exposition basée sur les jugements d'experts et, par conséquent, la protection de la santé des travailleurs. Abstract Occupational exposure assessment is an important stage in the management of chemical exposures. Few direct measurements are carried out in workplaces, and exposures are often estimated based on expert judgements. There is therefore a major requirement for simple transparent tools to help occupational health specialists to define exposure levels. The aim of the present research is to develop and improve modelling tools in order to predict exposure levels. In a first step a survey was made among professionals to define their expectations about modelling tools (what types of results, models and potential observable parameters). It was found that models are rarely used in Switzerland and that exposures are mainly estimated from past experiences of the expert. Moreover chemical emissions and their dispersion near the source have also been considered as key parameters. Experimental and modelling studies were also performed in some specific cases in order to test the flexibility and drawbacks of existing tools. In particular, models were applied to assess professional exposure to CO for different situations and compared with the exposure levels found in the literature for similar situations. Further, exposure to waterproofing sprays was studied as part of an epidemiological study on a Swiss cohort. In this case, some laboratory investigation have been undertaken to characterize the waterproofing overspray emission rate. A classical two-zone model was used to assess the aerosol dispersion in the near and far field during spraying. Experiments were also carried out to better understand the processes of emission and dispersion for tracer compounds, focusing on the characterization of near field exposure. An experimental set-up has been developed to perform simultaneous measurements through direct reading instruments in several points. It was mainly found that from a statistical point of view, the compartmental theory makes sense but the attribution to a given compartment could ñó~be done by simple geometric consideration. In a further step the experimental data were completed by observations made in about 100 different workplaces, including exposure measurements and observation of predefined determinants. The various data obtained have been used to improve an existing twocompartment exposure model. A tool was developed to include specific determinants in the choice of the compartment, thus largely improving the reliability of the predictions. All these investigations helped improving our understanding of modelling tools and identify their limitations. The integration of more accessible determinants, which are in accordance with experts needs, may indeed enhance model application for field practice. Moreover, while increasing the quality of modelling tool, this research will not only encourage their systematic use, but might also improve the conditions in which the expert judgments take place, and therefore the workers `health protection.

Dosing regimen of gentamicin in neonates: evaluation of current guidelines based on a large population pharmacokinetic analysis

Objectives: Gentamicin is among the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in newborns, but large interindividual variability in exposure levels exists. Based on a population pharmacokinetic analysis of a cohort of unselected neonates, we aimed to validate current dosing recommendations from a recent reference guideline (Neofax®). Methods: From 3039 concentrations collected in 994 preterm (median gestational age 32.3 weeks, range 24.2-36.5) and 455 term newborns, treated at the University Hospital of Lausanne between 2006 and 2011, a population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed with NONMEM®. Model-based simulations were used to assess the ability of dosing regimens to bring concentrations into targets: trough ≤ 1mg/L and peak ~ 8mg/L. Results: A two-compartment model best characterized gentamicin pharmacokinetics. Model parameters are presented in the table. Body weight, gestational age and postnatal age positively influence clearance, which decreases under dopamine administration. Body weight and gestational age influence the distribution volume. Model based simulations confirm that preterm infants need doses superior to 4 mg/kg, and extended dosage intervals, up to 48 hours for very preterm newborns, whereas most term newborns would achieve adequate exposure under 4 mg/kg q. 24 h. More than 90% of neonates would achieve trough concentrations below 2 mg/L and peaks above 6 mg/L following most recent guidelines. Conclusions: Simulated gentamicin exposure demonstrates good accordance with recent dosing recommendations for target concentration achievement.

An empirical hierarchical Bayesian unification of occupational exposure assessment methods.

In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.

Population pharmacokinetic study of gentamicin: A retrospective analysis in a large cohort of neonate patients

Objectives: Gentamicin is one of the most commonly prescribed antibiotics for suspected or proven infection in newborns. Because of age-associated (pre- and post- natal) changes in body composition and organ function, large interindividual variability in gentamicin drug levels exists, thus requiring a close monitoring of this drug due to its narrow therapeutic index. We aimed to investigate clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics (PK) in a large cohort of unselected newborns and to explore optimal regimen based on simulation. Methods: All gentamicin concentration data from newborns treated at the University Hospital Center of Lausanne between December 2006 and October 2011 were retrieved. Gentamicin concentrations were measured within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring program, in which 2 concentrations (at 1h and 12h) are systematically collected after the first administered dose, and a few additional concentrations are sampled along the treatment course. A population PK analysis was performed by comparing various structural models, and the effect of clinical and demographic factors on gentamicin disposition was explored using NONMEM®. Results: A total of 3039 concentrations collected in 994 preterm (median gestational age 32.3 weeks, range 24.2-36.5 weeks) and 455 term newborns were used in the analysis. Most of the data (86%) were sampled after the first dose (C1 h and C12 h). A two-compartment model best characterized gentamicin PK. Average clearance (CL) was 0.044 L/h/kg (CV 25%), central volume of distribution (Vc) 0.442 L/kg (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.040 L/h/kg and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp) 0.122 L/kg. Body weight, gestational age and postnatal age positively influenced CL. The use of both gestational age and postnatal age better predicted CL than postmenstrual age alone. CL was affected by dopamine and furosemide administration and non-significantly by indometacin. Body weight, gestational age and dopamine coadminstration significantly influenced Vc. Model based simulation confirms that preterm infants need higher dose, superior to 4 mg/kg, and extended interval dosage regimen to achieve adequate concentration. Conclusions: This study, performed on a very large cohort of neonates, identified important factors influencing gentamicin PK. The model will serve to elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on a single measurement.

Population pharmacokinetic study of gentamicin in a large cohort of premature and term neonates.

AIM: This study aims to investigate the clinical and demographic factors influencing gentamicin pharmacokinetics in a large cohort of unselected premature and term newborns and to evaluate optimal regimens in this population. METHODS: All gentamicin concentration data, along with clinical and demographic characteristics, were retrieved from medical charts in a Neonatal Intensive Care Unit over 5 years within the frame of a routine therapeutic drug monitoring programme. Data were described using non-linear mixed-effects regression analysis ( nonmem®). RESULTS: A total of 3039 gentamicin concentrations collected in 994 preterm and 455 term newborns were included in the analysis. A two compartment model best characterized gentamicin disposition. The average parameter estimates, for a median body weight of 2170 g, were clearance (CL) 0.089 l h(-1) (CV 28%), central volume of distribution (Vc ) 0.908 l (CV 18%), intercompartmental clearance (Q) 0.157 l h(-1) and peripheral volume of distribution (Vp ) 0.560 l. Body weight, gestational age and post-natal age positively influenced CL. Dopamine co-administration had a significant negative effect on CL, whereas the influence of indomethacin and furosemide was not significant. Both body weight and gestational age significantly influenced Vc . Model-based simulations confirmed that, compared with term neonates, preterm infants need higher doses, superior to 4 mg kg(-1) , at extended intervals to achieve adequate concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study conducted in a large cohort of newborns confirms the importance of body weight and gestational age for dosage adjustment. The model will serve to set up dosing recommendations and elaborate a Bayesian tool for dosage individualization based on concentration monitoring.

Tissue distribution of residual antimony in rats treated with multiple doses of meglumine antimoniate

Meglumine antimoniate (MA) and sodium stibogluconate are pentavalent antimony (SbV) drugs used since the mid-1940s. Notwithstanding the fact that they are first-choice drugs for the treatment of leishmaniases, there are gaps in our knowledge of their toxicological profile, mode of action and kinetics. Little is known about the distribution of antimony in tissues after SbV administration. In this study, we evaluated the Sb content of tissues from male rats 24 h and three weeks after a 21-day course of treatment with MA (300 mg SbV/kg body wt/d, subcutaneous). Sb concentrations in the blood and organs were determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. In rats, as with in humans, the Sb blood levels after MA dosing can be described by a two-compartment model with a fast (t1/2 = 0.6 h) and a slow (t1/2 >> 24 h) elimination phase. The spleen was the organ that accumulated the highest amount of Sb, while bone and thyroid ranked second in descending order of tissues according to Sb levels (spleen >> bone, thyroid, kidneys > liver, epididymis, lungs, adrenals > prostate > thymus, pancreas, heart, small intestines > skeletal muscle, testes, stomach > brain). The pathophysiological consequences of Sb accumulation in the thyroid and Sb speciation in the liver, thyroid, spleen and bone warrant further studies.

Error and attack tolerance of layered complex networks.

Many complex systems may be described by not one but a number of complex networks mapped on each other in a multi-layer structure. Because of the interactions and dependencies between these layers, the state of a single layer does not necessarily reflect well the state of the entire system. In this paper we study the robustness of five examples of two-layer complex systems: three real-life data sets in the fields of communication (the Internet), transportation (the European railway system), and biology (the human brain), and two models based on random graphs. In order to cover the whole range of features specific to these systems, we focus on two extreme policies of system's response to failures, no rerouting and full rerouting. Our main finding is that multi-layer systems are much more vulnerable to errors and intentional attacks than they appear from a single layer perspective.

Population pharmacokinetics of ganciclovir in solid-organ transplant recipients receiving oral valganciclovir.

Valganciclovir (VGC) is an oral prodrug of ganciclovir (GCV) recently introduced for prophylaxis and treatment of cytomegalovirus infection. Optimal concentration exposure for effective and safe VGC therapy would require either reproducible VGC absorption and GCV disposition or dosage adjustment based on therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). We examined GCV population pharmacokinetics in solid organ transplant recipients receiving oral VGC, including the influence of clinical factors, the magnitude of variability, and its impact on efficacy and tolerability. Nonlinear mixed effect model (NONMEM) analysis was performed on plasma samples from 65 transplant recipients under VGC prophylaxis or treatment. A two-compartment model with first-order absorption appropriately described the data. Systemic clearance was markedly influenced by the glomerular filtration rate (GFR), patient gender, and graft type (clearance/GFR = 1.7 in kidney, 0.9 in heart, and 1.2 in lung and liver recipients) with interpatient and interoccasion variabilities of 26 and 12%, respectively. Body weight and sex influenced central volume of distribution (V(1) = 0.34 liter/kg in males and 0.27 liter/kg in females [20% interpatient variability]). No significant drug interaction was detected. The good prophylactic efficacy and tolerability of VGC precluded the demonstration of any relationship with GCV concentrations. In conclusion, this analysis highlights the importance of thorough adjustment of VGC dosage to renal function and body weight. Considering the good predictability and reproducibility of the GCV profile after treatment with oral VGC, routine TDM does not appear to be clinically indicated in solid-organ transplant recipients. However, GCV plasma measurement may still be helpful in specific clinical situations.

Identification and characterization of the members of the pho1 gene family in moss and rice

Inorganic phosphate (Pi) is one of the main nutrients limiting plant growth anddevelopment in many agro-ecosystems. In plants, phosphate is acquired from the soil by theroots, and is then transferred to the shoot via the xylem. In the model plant Arabidopsisthaliana, PHO1 was previously identified as being involved in loading Pi into the xylem ofroots. AtPHO1, belongs to a multigenic family composed of 10 additional members, namelyAtPHO1;H1 to AtPHO1;10. In this study, we aimed at further investigating the role of thePHO1 gene family in Pi homeostasis in plants, and to this end we isolated and characterizedthe PHO1 members of two main model plants, the moss Physcomitrella patens and the riceOryza sativa.In the bryophyte P. patens, bioinformatic analyses revealed the presence of seven AtPHO1homologues, highly similar to AtPHO1. The seven moss PHO1 genes, namely PpPHO1;1 toPpPHO1;7 appeared to be differentially regulated, both at the tissue level and in response toPi status. However only PpPHO1;1 and PpPHO1;7 were specifically up-regulated upon Pistarvation, suggesting a potential role in Pi homeostasis. We also characterized the responseof P. patens to Pi starvation, showing that higher and lower plants share some commonstrategies to adapt to Pi-deficiency.In the second part, focusing on the monocotyledon rice, we showed the existence of threePHO1 homologues OsPHO1;1 to OsPHO1;3, with the unique particularity of each havingNatural Antisense Transcripts (NATs). Molecular analyses revealed that both the sense andthe antisense OsPHO1;2 transcripts were by far the most abundantly expressed transcripts ofthe family, preferentially expressed in the roots. The stable expression of OsPHO1;2 in allconditions tested, in opposition with the highly induced antisense transcript upon Pistarvation, suggest a putative role for the antisense in regulating the sense transcript.Moreover, mutant analyses revealed that OsPHO1;2 plays a key role in Pi homeostasis, intransferring Pi from the root to the shoot. Finally, complementing the pho1 mutant inArabidopsis, characterized by low Pi in the shoot and reduced growth, with the riceOsPHO1;2 gene revealed a new role for PHO1 in Pi signaling. Indeed, the complementedplants showed normal growth, with however low Pi content.

The effects of uncertainty avoidance on brand performance: Marketing creativity, product innovation and the brand duration

This paper investigates the link between brand performance and cultural primes in high-risk,innovation-based sectors. In theory section, we propose that the level of cultural uncertaintyavoidance embedded in a firm determine its marketing creativity by increasing the complexityand the broadness of a brand. It determines also the rate of firm product innovations.Marketing creativity and product innovation influence finally the firm marketingperformance. Empirically, we study trademarked promotion in the Software Security Industry(SSI). Our sample consists of 87 firms that are active in SSI from 11 countries in the period1993-2000. We use the data coming from SSI-related trademarks registered by these firms,ending up with 2,911 SSI-related trademarks and a panel of 18,213 observations. We estimatea two stage model in which first we predict the complexity and the broadness of a trademarkas a measure of marketing creativity and the rate of product innovations. Among severalcontrol variables, our variable of theoretical interest is the Hofstede s uncertainty avoidancecultural index. Then, we estimate the trademark duration with a hazard model using thepredicted complexity and broadness as well as the rate of product innovations, along with thesame control variables. Our evidence confirms that the cultural avoidance affects the durationof the trademarks through the firm marketing creativity and product innovation.

Endogenous policy leads to inefficient risk sharing

We analyze risk sharing and fiscal spending in a two-region model withcomplete markets. Fiscal policy determines tax rates for each state ofnature. When fiscal policy is decentralized, it can be used to affect prices of securities. To manipulate prices to their beneffit, regionschoose pro-cyclical fiscal spending. This leads to incomplete risk sharing,despite the existence of complete markets and the absence of aggregaterisk. When a fiscal union centralizes fiscal policy, securities pricescan no longer be manipulated and complete risk sharing ensues. If regionsare homogeneous, median income residents of both regions prefer the fiscalunion. If they are heterogeneous, the median resident of the rich regionprefers the decentralized setting.

How T cell receptors interact with peptide-MHCs: A multiple steered molecular dynamics study.

The T-cell receptor (TCR) interaction with antigenic peptides (p) presented by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule is a key determinant of immune response. In addition, TCR-pMHC interactions offer examples of features more generally pertaining to protein-protein recognition: subtle specificity and cross-reactivity. Despite their importance, molecular details determining the TCR-pMHC binding remain unsolved. However, molecular simulation provides the opportunity to investigate some of these aspects. In this study, we perform extensive equilibrium and steered molecular dynamics simulations to study the unbinding of three TCR-pMHC complexes. As a function of the dissociation reaction coordinate, we are able to obtain converged H-bond counts and energy decompositions at different levels of detail, ranging from the full proteins, to separate residues and water molecules, down to single atoms at the interface. Many observed features do not support a previously proposed two-step model for TCR recognition. Our results also provide keys to interpret experimental point-mutation results. We highlight the role of water both in terms of interface resolvation and of water molecules trapped in the bound complex. Importantly, we illustrate how two TCRs with similar reactivity and structures can have essentially different binding strategies. Proteins 2011; © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Optical response of Cu3Ge thin films

We report an investigation on the optical properties of Cu3Ge thin films displaying very high conductivity, with thickness ranging from 200 to 2000 Å, deposited on Ge substrates. Reflectance, transmittance, and ellipsometric spectroscopy measurements were performed at room temperature in the 0.01-6.0, 0.01-0.6, and 1.4-5.0 eV energy range, respectively. The complex dielectric function, the optical conductivity, the energy-loss function, and the effective charge density were obtained over the whole spectral range. The low-energy free-carrier response was well fitted by using the classical Drude-Lorentz dielectric function. A simple two-band model allowed the resulting optical parameters to be interpreted coherently with those previously obtained from transport measurements, hence yielding the densities and the effective masses of electrons and holes.