A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Autopsy-Proven Determinants of Immediate Fire Death in Lungs

In immediate fire deaths, pulmonary injury may be the main source of mortality, being important to document the histologic findings for the purpose of excluding other modes of death, such as from asphyxia with no gross findings. In this context, a group of morphologic determinants have been targeted with useful makers of pulmonary injury. To facilitate the determination of whether an individual was deceased before the start of a fire and validate the importance of parenchymal alterations in pulmonary injury in fire deaths, we studied lungs in victims of fire (N = 28) and suffocation (N = 40), creating a mathematical model using cluster analysis. For this purpose, a semiquantitative analysis of the distal parenchyma was performed to evaluate the amount of bronchiolar dilatation, overinsufflation (ductal and alveolar), collapse (ductal and alveolar), passive congestion, alveolar edema, and hemorrhage (interstitial and alveolar). These 7 histologic determinants were useful to discriminate fire (bronchiolar dilatation, ductal overinsuflation, alveolar overinsuflation, alveolar hemorrhage) from suffocation lung injuries (alveolar collapse, congestion, and edema). We conclude that these determinants should be included in the routine of forensic pathology.