Temporal causality between the exchange rate and the trade balance : the case of Brazil

The paper assesses the impact of intemational relative prices and domestic expenditure variables on Brazil' s foreign trade performance in the first half of the 1990s. It has been argued that the appreciation of the Real since 1994 has had a detrimental impact of the country's trade balance. However, using temporal precedence analysis, our results do not indicate that the trade balance is strongly affected by intemational rei ative prices, such as the exchange rate. Instead, domestic expenditure variables appear to be more powerful determinant of the country' s trade performance in recent years. Granger and error correction causality techniques are used to determine temporal precedence between the trade balance and the exchange rate in the period under examination. Our findings shed light on the debate over the sustainability of recent exchange rate-anchored macroeconomic stabilisation programmes, which is a topic that has encouraged a lot of debate among academics and practitioners.

Does mixed frequency vector error correction model add relevant information to exchange misalignment calculus? Evidence for United States

Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

Mechanistic approach to predict real machining time for milling free-form geometries applying high feed rate

An accurate estimate of machining time is very important for predicting delivery time, manufacturing costs, and also to help production process planning. Most commercial CAM software systems estimate the machining time in milling operations simply by dividing the entire tool path length by the programmed feed rate. This time estimate differs drastically from the real process time because the feed rate is not always constant due to machine and computer numerical controlled (CNC) limitations. This study presents a practical mechanistic method for milling time estimation when machining free-form geometries. The method considers a variable called machine response time (MRT) which characterizes the real CNC machine's capacity to move in high feed rates in free-form geometries. MRT is a global performance feature which can be obtained for any type of CNC machine configuration by carrying out a simple test. For validating the methodology, a workpiece was used to generate NC programs for five different types of CNC machines. A practical industrial case study was also carried out to validate the method. The results indicated that MRT, and consequently, the real machining time, depends on the CNC machine's potential: furthermore, the greater MRT, the larger the difference between predicted milling time and real milling time. The proposed method achieved an error range from 0.3% to 12% of the real machining time, whereas the CAM estimation achieved from 211% to 1244% error. The MRT-based process is also suggested as an instrument for helping in machine tool benchmarking.

A device to improve the Schleger and Turner method for sweating rate measurements

The objective of this study was to test a device developed to improve the functionality, accuracy and precision of the original technique for sweating rate measurements proposed by Schleger and Turner [Schleger AV, Turner HG (1965) Aust J Agric Res 16:92-106]. A device was built for this purpose and tested against the original Schleger and Turner technique. Testing was performed by measuring sweating rates in an experiment involving six Mertolenga heifers subjected to four different thermal levels in a climatic chamber. The device exhibited no functional problems and the results obtained with its use were more consistent than with the Schleger and Turner technique. There was no difference in the reproducibility of the two techniques (same accuracy), but measurements performed with the new device had lower repeatability, corresponding to lower variability and, consequently, to higher precision. When utilizing this device, there is no need for physical contact between the operator and the animal to maintain the filter paper discs in position. This has important advantages: the animals stay quieter, and several animals can be evaluated simultaneously. This is a major advantage because it allows more measurements to be taken in a given period of time, increasing the precision of the observations and diminishing the error associated with temporal hiatus (e.g., the solar angle during field studies). The new device has higher functional versatility when taking measurements in large-scale studies (many animals) under field conditions. The results obtained in this study suggest that the technique using the device presented here could represent an advantageous alternative to the original technique described by Schleger and Turner.

Application of ARX neural networks to model the rate of penetration of petroleum wells drilling

Bit performance prediction has been a challenging problem for the petroleum industry. It is essential in cost reduction associated with well planning and drilling performance prediction, especially when rigs leasing rates tend to follow the projects-demand and barrel-price rises. A methodology to model and predict one of the drilling bit performance evaluator, the Rate of Penetration (ROP), is presented herein. As the parameters affecting the ROP are complex and their relationship not easily modeled, the application of a Neural Network is suggested. In the present work, a dynamic neural network, based on the Auto-Regressive with Extra Input Signals model, or ARX model, is used to approach the ROP modeling problem. The network was applied to a real oil offshore field data set, consisted of information from seven wells drilled with an equal-diameter bit.

Bahamas and Barbados: empirical evidence of interest rate pass-through

Includes bibliography

Estudo da viabilidade econômica para implantação de redes de acesso banda larga em cenários amazônicos: um estudo de caso baseado no custo do bit aplicado ao programa NAVEGAPARÁ

Esta dissertação de mestrado propõe um estudo comparativo relacionado ao custo do bit gerado entre o programa NAVEGAPARÁ e as concessionárias prestadoras do serviço de telecomunicações nos municípios relacionados. Vários estudos são realizados analisando apenas o desempenho de tais sistemas, levando em consideração algumas métricas de avaliação de desempenho, entretanto, não relacionam o custo real para o usuário final. Três cenários reais foram utilizados no estudo de caso. Em cada cenário foi proposta a utilização de uma tecnologia ou mais combinadas para transmissão da informação, levando em consideração, alguns parâmetros como infraestrutura existente, distância entre usuários finais, taxa de transmissão, dentre outros. Algumas tecnologias de acesso, utilizadas neste trabalho, são comparadas com as soluções disponibilizadas pelas concessionárias prestadoras dos serviços existentes e atuantes nos cenários descritos.

Inferences of body energy reserves on conception rate of suckled Zebu beef cows subjected to timed artificial insemination followed by natural mating

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Development of CAN-based distributed control system for variable rate technology in agricultural machinery

The number of electronic devices connected to agricultural machinery is increasing to support new agricultural practices tasks related to the Precision Agriculture such as spatial variability mapping and Variable Rate Technology (VRT). The Distributed Control System (DCS) is a suitable solution for decentralization of the data acquisition system and the Controller Area Network (CAN) is the major trend among the embedded communications protocols for agricultural machinery and vehicles. The application of soil correctives is a typical problem in Brazil. The efficiency of this correction process is highly dependent of the inputs way at soil and the occurrence of errors affects directly the agricultural yield. To handle this problem, this paper presents the development of a CAN-based distributed control system for a VRT system of soil corrective in agricultural machinery. The VRT system is composed by a tractor-implement that applies a desired rate of inputs according to the georeferenced prescription map of the farm field to support PA (Precision Agriculture). The performance evaluation of the CAN-based VRT system was done by experimental tests and analyzing the CAN messages transmitted in the operation of the entire system. The results of the control error according to the necessity of agricultural application allow conclude that the developed VRT system is suitable for the agricultural productions reaching an acceptable response time and application error. The CAN-Based DCS solution applied in the VRT system reduced the complexity of the control system, easing the installation and maintenance. The use of VRT system allowed applying only the required inputs, increasing the efficiency operation and minimizing the environmental impact.

Modelamento matemático para otimização de perfuração em seções de pré-pal: um foco em operações no oceano Atlântico sul

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modeling the growth rate and lag time of different strains of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat lettuce

The growth parameters (growth rate, mu and lag time, lambda) of three different strains each of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in minimally processed lettuce (MPL) and their changes as a function of temperature were modeled. MPL were packed under modified atmosphere (5% O-2, 15% CO2 and 80% N-2), stored at 7-30 degrees C and samples collected at different time intervals were enumerated for S. enterica and L monocytogenes. Growth curves and equations describing the relationship between mu and lambda as a function of temperature were constructed using the DMFit Excel add-in and through linear regression, respectively. The predicted growth parameters for the pathogens observed in this study were compared to ComBase, Pathogen modeling program (PMP) and data from the literature. High R-2 values (0.97 and 0.93) were observed for average growth curves of different strains of pathogens grown on MPL Secondary models of mu and lambda for both pathogens followed a linear trend with high R2 values (>0.90). Root mean square error (RMSE) showed that the models obtained are accurate and suitable for modeling the growth of S. enterica and L monocytogenes in MP lettuce. The current study provides growth models for these foodborne pathogens that can be used in microbial risk assessment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Medication errors in a swiss cardiovascular surgery department: a cross-sectional study based on a novel medication error report method

The purpose of this study was (1) to determine frequency and type of medication errors (MEs), (2) to assess the number of MEs prevented by registered nurses, (3) to assess the consequences of ME for patients, and (4) to compare the number of MEs reported by a newly developed medication error self-reporting tool to the number reported by the traditional incident reporting system. We conducted a cross-sectional study on ME in the Cardiovascular Surgery Department of Bern University Hospital in Switzerland. Eligible registered nurses (n = 119) involving in the medication process were included. Data on ME were collected using an investigator-developed medication error self reporting tool (MESRT) that asked about the occurrence and characteristics of ME. Registered nurses were instructed to complete a MESRT at the end of each shift even if there was no ME. All MESRTs were completed anonymously. During the one-month study period, a total of 987 MESRTs were returned. Of the 987 completed MESRTs, 288 (29%) indicated that there had been an ME. Registered nurses reported preventing 49 (5%) MEs. Overall, eight (2.8%) MEs had patient consequences. The high response rate suggests that this new method may be a very effective approach to detect, report, and describe ME in hospitals.

Analysis of mRNA transcripts improves the success rate of molecular genetic testing in OTC deficiency

BACKGROUND: Ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency is the most common inborn error of urea metabolism that can lead to hyperammonemic crises and orotic aciduria. To date, a total of 341 causative mutations within the OTC gene have been described. However, in about 20% of the patients with enzymatically confirmed OTC deficiency no mutation can be detected when sequencing of genomic DNA analyzing exons and adjacent intronic segments of the OTC gene is performed. METHODS: Standard genomic DNA analysis of the OTC gene in five consecutive patients from five families revealed no mutation. Hence, liver tissue was obtained by needle sampling or open biopsy and RNA extracted from liver was analyzed. RESULTS: Complex rearrangements of the OTC transcript (three insertions and two deletions) were found in all five patients. CONCLUSION: In patients with a strong suspicion of OTC deficiency despite normal results of sequencing exonic regions of the OTC gene, characterization of liver OTC mRNA is highly effective in resolving the genotype. Liver tissue sampling by needle aspiration allows for both enzymatic analysis and RNA based diagnostics of OTC deficiency.

Implementation status of error disclosure standards reported by Swiss hospitals

QUESTION UNDER STUDY To establish at what stage Swiss hospitals are in implementing an internal standard concerning communication with patients and families after an error that resulted in harm. METHODS Hospitals were identified via the Swiss Hospital Association's website. An anonymous questionnaire was sent during September and October 2011 to 379 hospitals in German, French or Italian. Hospitals were asked to specify their hospital type and the implementation status of an internal hospital standard that decrees that patients or their relatives are to be promptly informed about medical errors that result in harm. RESULTS Responses from a total of 205 hospitals were received, a response rate of 54%. Most responding hospitals (62%) had an error disclosure standard or planned to implement one within 12 months. The majority of responding university and acute care (75%) hospitals had introduced a disclosure standard or were planning to do so. In contrast, the majority of responding psychiatric, rehabilitation and specialty (53%) clinics had not introduced a standard. CONCLUSION It appears that Swiss hospitals are in a promising state in providing institutional support for practitioners disclosing medical errors to patients. This has been shown internationally to be one important factor in encouraging the disclosure of medical errors. However, many hospitals, in particular psychiatric, rehabilitation and specialty clinics, have not implemented an error disclosure policy. Further research is needed to explore the underlying reasons.

The physician's perception of medical error and its application to the development of an educational training tool.

It is becoming clear that if we are to impact the rate of medical errors it will have to be done at the practicing physician level. The purpose of this project was to survey the attitude of physicians in Alabama concerning their perception of medical error, and to obtain their thoughts and desires for medical education in the area of medical errors. The information will be used in the development of a physician education program.