Forward and backward least angle regression for nonlinear system identification

A forward and backward least angle regression (LAR) algorithm is proposed to construct the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) that is widely used to describe a large class of nonlinear dynamic systems. The main objective of this paper is to improve model sparsity and generalization performance of the original forward LAR algorithm. This is achieved by introducing a replacement scheme using an additional backward LAR stage. The backward stage replaces insignificant model terms selected by forward LAR with more significant ones, leading to an improved model in terms of the model compactness and performance. A numerical example to construct four types of NARX models, namely polynomials, radial basis function (RBF) networks, neuro fuzzy and wavelet networks, is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique in comparison with some popular methods.

Scene From a Different Angle: Attempts to Internationalize Northern Ireland’s Conflict Experience

Reviews the books, Lessons From the Northern Ireland Peace Process edited by Timothy J. White (2013) and Human Rights as War by Other Means by Jennifer Curtis (2014). Edited by a U.S.-based academic with an enduring interest in Ireland, the first book draws together an interdisciplinary group of academics from across North America and the U.K. (though notably not Northern Ireland itself) to cover such topics as third party intervention, nationalism, grassroots change, and community development. The second text to be reviewed may be seen as a thorough analysis of this particular point: what is the role played by human rights in Northern Ireland’s peace process?

Wide-Area Phase-Angle Measurements for Islanding Detection—An Adaptive Nonlinear Approach

The integration of an ever growing proportion of large scale distributed renewable generation has increased the probability of maloperation of the traditional RoCoF and vector shift relays. With reduced inertia due to non-synchronous penetration in a power grid, system wide disturbances have forced the utility industry to design advanced protection schemes to prevent system degradation and avoid cascading outages leading to widespread blackouts. This paper explores a novel adaptive nonlinear approach applied to islanding detection, based on wide area phase angle measurements. This is challenging, since the voltage phase angles from different locations exhibit not only strong nonlinear but also time-varying characteristics. The adaptive nonlinear technique, called moving window kernel principal component analysis is proposed to model the time-varying and nonlinear trends in the voltage phase angle data. The effectiveness of the technique is exemplified using both DigSilent simulated cases and real test cases recorded from the Great Britain and Ireland power systems by the OpenPMU project.

Peripheral Iridotomy for Angle-Closure Glaucoma

This chapter covers the indications, contraindications, techniques, outcomes, and complications of LPI. Its role is well defined in most of the areas, but no conclusion can be drawn at present regarding prophylactic use for glaucoma suspects. More studies are needed to define its safety and efficacy. Overall, LPI is a relatively safe procedure and the majority of complications can be avoided if it is performed properly.

Determinants and two-year change in anterior chamber angle width in a Chinese population

Objective: To study the population distribution and longitudinal changes in anterior chamber angle width and its determinants among Chinese adults. Design: Prospective cohort, population-based study. Participants: Persons aged 35 years or more residing in Guangzhou, China, who had not previously undergone incisional or laser eye surgery. Methods: In December 2008 and December 2010, all subjects underwent automated keratometry, and a random 50% sample had anterior segment optical coherence tomography with measurement of angle-opening distance at 500 μm (AOD500), angle recess area (ARA), iris thickness at 750 μm (IT750), iris curvature, pupil diameter, corneal thickness, anterior chamber width (ACW), lens vault (LV), and lens thickness (LT) and measurement of axial length (AL) and anterior chamber depth (ACD) by partial coherence laser interferometry. Main Outcome Measures: Baseline and 2-year change in AOD500 and ARA in the right eye. Results: A total of 745 subjects were present for full biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (mean age at baseline, 52.2 years; standard deviation [SD], 11.5 years; 53.7% were female). Test completion rates in 2010 varied from 77.3% (AOD500: 576/745) to 100% (AL). Mean AOD500 decreased from 0.25 mm (SD, 0.13 mm) in 2008 to 0.21 mm (SD, 13 mm) in 2010 (difference, -0.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.05 to -0.03). The ARA decreased from 21.5±3.73 10^-2 mm² to 21.0±3.64 10 ^-2 mm² (difference, -0.46; 95% CI, -0.52 to -0.41). The decrease in both was most pronounced among younger subjects and those with baseline AOD500 in the widest quartile at baseline. The following baseline variables were significantly associated with a greater 2-year decrease in both AOD500 and ARA: deeper ACD, steeper iris curvature, smaller LV, greater ARA, and greater AOD500. By using simple regression models, we could explain 52% to 58% and 93% of variation in baseline AOD500 and ARA, respectively, but only 27% and 16% of variation in 2-year change in AOD500 and ARA, respectively. Conclusions: Younger persons and those with the least crowded anterior chambers at baseline have the largest 2-year decreases in AOD500 and ARA. The ability to predict change in angle width based on demographic and biometric factors is relatively poor, which may have implications for screening. Financial Disclosure(s): The author(s) have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article. © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Visual symptoms and retinal straylight after laser peripheral iridotomy: the Zhongshan Angle-Closure Prevention Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of laser peripheral iridotomy (LPI) on forward-scatter of light and subjective visual symptoms and to identify LPI parameters influencing these phenomena. DESIGN: Cohort study derived from a randomized trial, using an external control group. PARTICIPANTS: Chinese subjects initially aged 50 or older and 70 years or younger with bilateral narrow angles undergoing LPI in 1 eye selected at random, and age- and gender-matched controls. METHODS: Eighteen months after laser, LPI-treated subjects underwent digital iris photography and photogrammetry to characterize the size and location of the LPI, Lens Opacity Classification System III cataract grading, and measurement of retinal straylight (C-Quant; OCULUS, Wetzlar, Germany) in the treated and untreated eyes and completed a visual symptoms questionnaire. Controls answered the questionnaire and underwent straylight measurement and (in a random one-sixth sample) cataract grading. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Retinal straylight levels and subjective visual symptoms. RESULTS: Among 230 LPI-treated subjects (121 [58.8%] with LPI totally covered by the lid, 43 [19.8%] with LPI partly covered by the lid, 53 [24.4%] with LPI uncovered by the lid), 217 (94.3%) completed all testing, as did 250 (93.3%) of 268 controls. Age, gender, and prevalence of visual symptoms did not differ between treated subjects and controls, although nuclear (P<0.01) and cortical (P = 0.03) cataract were less common among controls. Neither presenting visual acuity nor straylight score differed between the treated and untreated eyes among all treated persons, nor among those (n = 96) with LPI partially or totally uncovered. Prevalence of subjective glare did not differ significantly between participants with totally covered LPI (6.61%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.39%-12.5%), partially covered LPI (11.6%; 95% CI, 5.07%-24.5%), or totally uncovered LPI (9.43%; 95% CI, 4.10%-10.3%). In regression models, only worse cortical cataract grade (P = 0.01) was associated significantly with straylight score, and no predictors were associated with subjective glare. None of the LPI size or location parameters were associated with straylight or subjective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggests that LPI is safe regarding measures of straylight and visual symptoms. This randomized design provides strong evidence that treatment programs for narrow angles would be unlikely to result in important medium-term visual disability.

Issues in the epidemiology and population-based screening of primary angle-closure glaucoma

Among Caucasians, it is well known that 75-95% of primary glaucoma is due to open-angle glaucoma (POAG), with angle-closure (PACG) comprising only a very small minority of cases. These figures are reversed among other groups such as Asians and Eskimos, where PACG makes up 80-90% of primary glaucoma. Among Eskimos, the prevalence of PACG has been reported as 2-8%, as compared to 0.1% among Caucasians. It appears that a population tendency toward shallow anterior chambers may explain the excess burden of PACG morbidity. Among Asians, the prevalence of PACG is intermediate between Caucasians and Eskimos. Existing biometrical data do not show a clear tendency toward shallower anterior chambers among Asians. PACG may be screened for on a population basis by means of various techniques that estimate axial or limbal anterior chamber depth, measure intraocular pressure, or evaluate the optic disc or visual fields. Demographic information and medical and family history will also be of great importance in screening for PACG in large populations. Groups at increased risk for the disease include women, individuals over 50, first-degree relatives of PACG probands, and hyperopes.

Screening techniques for angle-closure glaucoma in rural Taiwan

562 residents of Jin Shan aged 40 years and above underwent examinations to compare the sensitivity and specificity of oblique flashlight, peripheral slit beam and ultrasonographic evaluation of the anterior chamber depth to gonioscopy in detecting cases of PACG. Among 5441 eligible individuals aged 40 and above, 562 (10.3%) underwent screening for PACG, of whom 17 (3.02%) were defined as cases, and 10 (1.78%) as suspects. Home visits indicated that respondents for screening were similar to the population as a whole. Only 35% of PACG cases reported symptoms consistent with acute angle closure, and only 18% were previously diagnosed. When compared to gonioscopy, only ultrasonographic measurement of AC depth provided an adequate mix of sensitivity and specificity. Ultrasonography in combination with tonometry provided a sensitivity of 88% with a specificity of 92%. Sensitivity and specificity for ultrasonography in combination with refractive status were 84% and 83% respectively. Shallower AC depth (p = 0.0001), shorter axial globe length (p = 0.001), greater than 2D of hyperopia (p < 0.001), high grades of nuclear sclerotic cataract (p < 0.0001) and an increased cup-to-disc ratio (p = 0.002) were significantly correlated with a diagnosis of PACG.

Biometry and primary angle-closure glaucoma among Chinese, white, and black populations

PURPOSE: Primary angle-closure glaucoma (PACG) is more prevalent among Chinese than whites. The authors tested the hypothesis that Chinese have shallower anterior chambers than do whites, a factor that may be related to PACG prevalence. METHODS: The authors compared anterior chamber depth, axial length, radius of corneal curvature, and refractive error among 531 Chinese, 170 whites, and 188 blacks older than 40 years of age using the same model of instruments and identical technique. RESULTS: Mean anterior chamber depth and axial length did not differ significantly for the three groups. Whites had a significantly higher prevalence of hyperopia > 2 diopters than did Chinese. Radius of corneal curvature was significantly smaller among Chinese than whites or blacks. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that Chinese do not differ on a population basis from other ethnic groups in many of the biometric risk factors known to be of importance for PACG. It will be necessary to identify other ocular biometric parameters to explain the excess burden of PACG among Chinese, which may improve the effectiveness of screening for this disease in all populations.

A proposed simple method for measurement in the anterior chamber angle: biometric gonioscopy

OBJECTIVE:

To design a system of gonioscopy that will allow greater interobserver reliability and more clearly defined screening cutoffs for angle closure than current systems while being simple to teach and technologically appropriate for use in rural Asia, where the prevalence of angle-closure glaucoma is highest.

DESIGN:

Clinic-based validation and interobserver reliability trial.

PARTICIPANTS:

Study 1: 21 patients 18 years of age and older recruited from a university-based specialty glaucoma clinic; study 2: 32 patients 18 years of age and older recruited from the same clinic.

INTERVENTION:

In study 1, all participants underwent conventional gonioscopy by an experienced observer (GLS) using the Spaeth system and in the same eye also underwent Scheimpflug photography, ultrasonographic measurement of anterior chamber depth and axial length, automatic refraction, and biometric gonioscopy with measurement of the distance from iris insertion to Schwalbe's line using a reticule based in the slit-lamp ocular. In study 2, all participants underwent both conventional gonioscopy and biometric gonioscopy by an experienced gonioscopist (NGC) and a medical student with no previous training in gonioscopy (JK).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Study 1: The association between biometric gonioscopy and conventional gonioscopy, Scheimpflug photography, and other factors known to correlate with the configuration of the angle. Study 2: Interobserver agreement using biometric gonioscopy compared to that obtained with conventional gonioscopy.

RESULTS:

In study 1, there was an independent, monotonic, statistically significant relationship between biometric gonioscopy and both Spaeth angle (P = 0.001, t test) and Spaeth insertion (P = 0.008, t test) grades. Biometric gonioscopy correctly identified six of six patients with occludable angles according to Spaeth criteria. Biometric gonioscopic grade was also significantly associated with the anterior chamber angle as measured by Scheimpflug photography (P = 0.005, t test). In study 2, the intraclass correlation coefficient between graders for biometric gonioscopy (0.97) was higher than for Spaeth angle grade (0.72) or Spaeth insertion grade (0.84).

CONCLUSION:

Biometric gonioscopy correlates well with other measures of the anterior chamber angle, shows a higher degree of interobserver reliability than conventional gonioscopy, and can readily be learned by an inexperienced observer.

Biometric gonioscopy and the effects of age, race, and sex on the anterior chamber angle.

AIM:

To utilise a novel method for making measurements in the anterior chamber in order to compare the anterior chamber angles of people of European, African, and east Asian descent aged 40 years and over.

METHODS:

A cross sectional study on 15 people of each sex from each decade from the 40s to the 70s, from each of three racial groups-black, white, and Chinese Singaporeans. Biometric gonioscopy (BG) utilises a slit lamp mounted reticule to make measurements from the apparent iris insertion to Schwalbe's line through a Goldmann one mirror goniolens. The main outcome measures were BG measurements of the anterior chamber angle as detailed above.

RESULTS:

There was no significant difference in angle measurement between black, white, and Chinese races in this study. However, at younger ages people of Chinese race appeared to have deeper angles than white or black people, whereas the angles of older Chinese were significantly narrower (p = 0.004 for the difference in slope of BG by age between Chinese and both black and white people).

CONCLUSION:

The failure to detect a difference in angle measurements between these groups was surprising, given the much higher prevalence of angle closure among Chinese. It appears that the overall apparent similarity of BG means between Chinese and Western populations may mask very different trends with age. The apparently more rapid decline in angle width measurements with age among Chinese may be due to the higher prevalence of cataract or "creeping angle closure." However, longitudinal inferences from cross sectional data are problematic, and this may represent a cohort phenomenon caused by the increasing prevalence of myopia in the younger Singaporean population.

Age, gender, biometry, refractive error, and the anterior chamber angle among Alaskan Eskimos.

BACKGROUND:

The prevalence of angle-closure glaucoma (ACG) is greater for Eskimos/Inuit than it is for any other ethnic group in the world. Although it has been suggested that this prevalence may be due to a population tendency toward shallower anterior chamber angles, available evidence for other populations such as Chinese with high rates of ACG has not consistently demonstrated such a tendency.

METHODS:

A reticule, slit-lamp, and standard Goldmann one-mirror goniolens were used to make measurements in the anterior chamber (AC) angle according to a previously reported protocol for biometric gonioscopy (BG) (Ophthalmology 1999;106:2161-7). Measurements were made in all four quadrants of one eye among 133 phakic Alaskan Eskimos aged 40 years and older. Automatic refraction, dilated examination of the anterior segment and optic nerve, and A-scan measurements of AC depth, lens thickness, and axial length were also carried out for all subjects.

RESULTS:

Both central and peripheral AC measurements for the Eskimo subjects were significantly lower than those previously reported by us for Chinese, blacks, and whites under the identical protocol. Eskimos also seemed to have somewhat more hyperopia. There were no differences in biometric measurements between men and women in this Eskimo population. Angle measurements by BG seemed to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos and Chinese than blacks or whites. Although there was a significant apparent decrease in AC depth, increase in lens thickness, and increase in hyperopia with age among Eskimos, all of these trends seemed to reverse in the seventh decade and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS:

Eskimos do seem to have shallower ACs than do other racial groups. Measurements of the AC angle seem to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos than among blacks or whites, a phenomenon also observed by us among Chinese, another group with high ACG prevalence. This apparent more rapid decline may be due to a cohort effect with higher prevalence of myopia and resulting wider angles among younger Eskimos and Chinese.

Angle-closure glaucoma: impact, etiology, diagnosis, and treatment.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW:

Recent studies underscore the importance of angle-closure glaucoma (ACG) as a cause of world blindness. A major contribution in assessing the true impact of this disease has been an article estimating the number of persons with occludable angles, angle closure, and blindness from ACG in China as 28.2 million, 9.1 million, and 1.7 million, respectively. Although these numbers are based on data from Singapore and Mongolia, which may be applied to China only with caution, they emphasize the blinding potential of ACG, which is three times as likely to be associated with blindness as open-angle glaucoma (OAG).

RECENT FINDINGS:

Recent reports in the Chinese literature on ACG prevalence suffer from definitional problems that would appear to lead to systematic overestimates of ACG prevalence and underestimates of OAG prevalence. Nonetheless, data from studies by Chinese investigators further emphasize the strong association between ACG and blindness, with fully 16% of subjects with ACG blind in one report-a far higher proportion than for OAG in China and elsewhere. The importance of topiramate as a cause of secondary angle closure has recently been understood, in part, because of a series of 19 such cases reported by investigators at the Food and Drug Administration.

SUMMARY:

Angle closure in this setting appears to be caused by uveal effusion and anterior rotation of the ciliary body with resultant closure of the angle. The condition is not always responsive to laser iridectomy, and elimination of the causative agent appears to be critical. Ultrasonic biomicroscopy is a potential new diagnostic modality for ACG, allowing the measurement of novel parameters, such as the angle opening distance (AOD) at 500 microm (AOD 500). The efficacy of such parameters in improving screening for ACG can only be established by prospective studies of potentially at-risk eyes. A number of novel treatments for AC and angle closure have recently been proposed, including cataract extraction, paracentesis, and argon laser iridoplasty. As with proposed new diagnostic modalities, the efficacy of these treatments remains to be demonstrated with prospective studies, ideally organized in a controlled, randomized fashion.

Prevalence of open-angle glaucoma among adults in the United States.

OBJECTIVE:

To estimate the prevalence and distribution of open-angle glaucoma (OAG) in the United States by age, race/ethnicity, and gender.

METHODS:

Summary prevalence estimates of OAG were prepared separately for black, Hispanic, and white subjects in 5-year age intervals starting at 40 years. The estimated rates were based on a meta-analysis of recent population-based studies in the United States, Australia, and Europe. These rates were applied to 2000 US census data and to projected US population figures for 2020 to estimate the number of the US population with OAG.

RESULTS:

The overall prevalence of OAG in the US population 40 years and older is estimated to be 1.86% (95% confidence interval, 1.75%-1.96%), with 1.57 million white and 398 000 black persons affected. After applying race-, age-, and gender-specific rates to the US population as determined in the 2000 US census, we estimated that OAG affects 2.22 million US citizens. Owing to the rapidly aging population, the number with OAG will increase by 50% to 3.36 million in 2020. Black subjects had almost 3 times the age-adjusted prevalence of glaucoma than white subjects.

CONCLUSIONS:

Open-angle glaucoma affects more than 2 million individuals in the United States. Owing to the rapid aging of the US population, this number will increase to more than 3 million by 2020.