Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

The cult of the Duce: Mussolini and the Italians

This is an edited volume of essays (to which I, as one of the three joint editors, have contributed three essays) that explores the cult of Mussolini from a variety of perspectives: historical, political, art historical, literary and cinematic. Much of the focus is on the period from 1919 to 1945, but there are also sections dealing with the cult of Mussolini after the Second World War.

Flow-dependent predictability of the North Atlantic Jet

The North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is a major component of the large-scale flow in the northern hemisphere. Here we present evidence from reanalysis and ensemble forecast data for systematic flow-dependent predictability of the jet during northern hemisphere winter (DJF). It is found that when the jet is weakened or split it is both less persistent and less predictable. The lack of predictability manifests itself as the onset of an anomalously large instantaneous rate of spread of ensemble forecast members as the jet becomes weakened. This suggests that as the jet weakens or splits it enters into a state more sensitive to small differences between ensemble forecast members, rather like the sensitive region between the wings of the Lorenz attractor.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

A battle of elephants: (I)legitimate ethical voices?

In this paper, we aim to distil myriad stakeholder voices through a Foucaudian theoretical apparatus in the establishment of ethical stakeholder voices amidst a takeover of a Ghanaian National Bank with ownership control by the state National Pension Fund and Insurance Company. Resonating with Foucault’s position that, the prove and an actual practice of ethical principles despite risk is non-existent within a democracy, this paper reveals how stakeholders in a takeover further their own interest to the neglect of the very germane societal expectation of a salient stakeholder role. We further fill an existing gap within the stakeholder literature that posit of stakeholders as always possessing the right and ethical voices. We conclude that, despite Foucault’s last lecture of The Courage of Truth: The Government of the Self and others having proven of a robust apparatus in distilling ethical voices from non-ethical within the realm of a democratic field, its idealist nature demands a counterfactual position.

Analysis and manipulation of the structure of odor plumes from a piezo-electric release system and measurements of upwind flight of male Almond Moths, Cadra cautella, to pheromone plumes

We investigated the plume structure of a piezo-electric sprayer system, set up to release ethanol in a wind tunnel, using a fast response mini-photoionizaton detector. We recorded the plume structure of four different piezo-sprayer configurations: the sprayer alone; with a 1.6-mm steel mesh shield; with a 3.2-mm steel mesh shield; and with a 5 cm circular upwind baffle. We measured a 12 × 12-mm core at the center of the plume, and both a horizontal and vertical cross-section of the plume, all at 100-, 200-, and 400-mm downwind of the odor source. Significant differences in plume structure were found among all configurations in terms of conditional relative mean concentration, intermittency, ratio of peak concentration to conditional mean concentration, and cross-sectional area of the plume. We then measured the flight responses of the almond moth, Cadra cautella, to odor plumes generated with the sprayer alone, and with the upwind baffle piezo-sprayer configuration, releasing a 13:1 ratio of (9Z,12E)-tetradecadienyl acetate and (Z)-9-tetradecenyl acetate diluted in ethanol at release rates of 1, 10, 100, and 1,000 pg/min. For each configuration, differences in pheromone release rate resulted in significant differences in the proportions of moths performing oriented flight and landing behaviors. Additionally, there were apparent differences in the moths’ behaviors between the two sprayer configurations, although this requires confirmation with further experiments. This study provides evidence that both pheromone concentration and plume structure affect moth orientation behavior and demonstrates that care is needed when setting up experiments that use a piezo-electric release system to ensure the optimal conditions for behavioral observations.

Role of the Mitochondrial Mutations, m. 827A > G and the Novel m. 7462C > T, in the Origin of Hearing Loss

Samples from 30 deaf probands exhibiting features suggestive of syndromic mitochondrial deafness or from families with maternal transmission of deafness were selected for investigation of mutations in the mitochondrial genes MT-RNR1 and MT-TS1. Patients with mutation m. 1555A>G had been previously excluded from this sample. In the MT-RNR1 gene, five probands presented the m. 827A>G sequence variant, of uncertain pathogenicity. This change was also detected in 66 subjects of an unaffected control sample of 306 Brazilian individuals from various ethnic backgrounds. Given its high frequency, we consider it unlikely to have a pathogenic role on hereditary deafness. As to the MT-TS1 gene, one proband presented the previously known pathogenic m. 7472insC mutation and three probands presented a novel variant, m. 7462C>T, which was absent from the same control sample of 306 individuals. Because of its absence in control samples and association with a family history of hearing impairment, we suggest it might be a novel pathogenic mutation.

Evaluation of the kinetics of xylose formation from dilute sulfuric acid hydrolysis of forest residues of Eucalyptus grandis

Dilute acid hydrolysis studies were performed on forest residues of Eucalyptus grandis, in a cylindrical reactor of stainless steel. The kinetics of this hydrolysis reaction was investigated employing 0.65% sulfuric acid, a residue/acid solution ratio of 1/9 (w/w), temperatures of 130, 140, 150, and 160 degrees C, and reaction times in the range 20-100 min. The results showed that, under the optimized conditions of acid hydrolysis employed in this study, the variables temperature and reaction time had a strong influence on hemicellulose removal and a small influence on the degree of lignin and cellulose removal. The highest xylose extraction yield was 87.6% attained at 160 degrees C, after 70 min reaction time, simultaneously with the formation of decomposition products, namely 2.8% acetic acid, 0.6% furfural, and 0.06% 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. A similar xylose extraction yield (82.8%) was observed at 150 degrees C after 100 min, with the formation of 3.2% acetic acid, 1.0% furfural, and 0.07% 5-hydroxymethylfurfural. The kinetic parameters determined at 130, 140, 150, and 160 degrees C for degradation of xylan present in the hemicellulose of the eucalyptus forest residue during the formation of xylose were the first-order reaction rate constants (k) for each temperature, 1.22 x 10(-4), 2.12 x 10(-4), 5.43 x 10(-4), and 9.05 x 10(-4) s(-1), respectively, and an activation energy (E-a) of 101.3 kJ mol(-1).

Geographic and Educational Factors and Risk of the First Peritonitis Episode in Brazilian Peritoneal Dialysis Study (BRAZPD) Patients

Background and objectives Peritonitis remains as the most frequent cause of peritoneal dialysis (PD) failure, impairing patient's outcome. No large multicenter study has addressed socioeconomic, educational, and geographic issues as peritonitis risk factors in countries with a large geographic area and diverse socioeconomic conditions, such as Brazil.Design, setting, participants, & measurements Incident PD patients recruited from 114 dialysis centers and reporting to BRAZPD, a multicenter observational study, from December 2004 through October 2007 were included. Clinical, dialysis-related, demographic, and socioeconomic variables were analyzed. Patients were followed up until their first peritonitis. Cox proportional model was used to determine independent factors associated with peritonitis.Results In a cumulative follow-up of 2032 patients during 22.026 patient-months, 474 (23.3%) presented a first peritonitis episode. In contrast to earlier findings, PD modality, previous hemodialysis, diabetes, gender, age, and family income were not risk predictors. Factors independently associated with increased hazard risk were lower educational level, non-white race, region where patients live, shorter distance from dialysis center, and lower number of patients per center.Conclusions Educational level and geographic factors as well as race and center size are associated with risk for the first peritonitis, independent of socioeconomic status, PD modality, and comorbidities. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 1944-1951, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.11431210

Ultramorphology of the metapleural gland in three species of Atta (Hymenoptera, Formicidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A review of some south american species of jumping spiders (Araneae: Salticidae) described by Mello-Leitão from Brasil, with resolution of the genus Asaphobelis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)