Assertive community treatment as part of integrated care versus standard care: a 12-month trial in patients with first- and multiple-episode schizophrenia spectrum disorders treated with quetiapine immediate release (ACCESS trial)

The ACCESS trial examined the 12-month effectiveness of continuous therapeutic assertive community treatment (ACT) as part of integrated care compared to standard care in a catchment area comparison design in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders treated with quetiapine immediate release.

Integrated Geophysical Investigation of the St. James Fault Complex: A Case Study

We noninvasively detected the characteristics and location of a regional fault in an area of poor bedrock exposure complicated by karst weathering features in the subsurface. Because this regional fault is associated with sinkhole formation, its location is important for hazard avoidance. The bedrock lithologies on either side of the fault trace are similar; hence, we chose an approach that capitalized on the complementary strengths of very low frequency (VLF) electromagnetic, resistivity, and gravity methods. VLF proved most useful as a first-order reconnaissance tool, allowing us to define a narrow target area for further geophysical exploration. Fault-related epikarst was delineated using resistivity. Ultimately, a high-resolution gravity survey and subsequent inverse modeling using the results of the resistivity survey helped to further constrain the location and approximate orientation of the fault. The combined results indicated that the location of the fault trace needed to be adjusted 53 m south of the current published location and was consistent with a north-dipping thrust fault. Additionally, a gravity low south of the fault trace agreed with the location of conductive material from the resistivity and VLF surveys. We interpreted these anomalies to represent enhanced epikarst in the fault footwall. We clearly found that a staged approach involving a progression of methods beginning with a reconnaissance VLF survey, followed by high-resolution gravity and electrical resistivity surveys, can be used to characterize a fault and fault-related karst in an area of poor bedrock surface exposure.

Io volcano observer (IVO) integrated approach to optimizing system design for radiation challenges

One of the major challenges for a mission to the Jovian system is the radiation tolerance of the spacecraft (S/C) and the payload. Moreover, being able to achieve science observations with high signal to noise ratios (SNR), while passing through the high flux radiation zones, requires additional ingenuity on the part of the instrument provider. Consequently, the radiation mitigation is closely intertwined with the payload, spacecraft and trajectory design, and requires a systems-level approach. This paper presents a design for the Io Volcano Observer (IVO), a Discovery mission concept that makes multiple close encounters with Io while orbiting Jupiter. The mission aims to answer key outstanding questions about Io, especially the nature of its intense active volcanism and the internal processes that drive it. The payload includes narrow-angle and wide-angle cameras (NAC and WAC), dual fluxgate magnetometers (FGM), a thermal mapper (ThM), dual ion and neutral mass spectrometers (INMS), and dual plasma ion analyzers (PIA). The radiation mitigation is implemented by drawing upon experiences from designs and studies for missions such as the Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) and Jupiter Europa Orbiter (JEO). At the core of the radiation mitigation is IVO's inclined and highly elliptical orbit, which leads to rapid passes through the most intense radiation near Io, minimizing the total ionizing dose (177 krads behind 100 mils of Aluminum with radiation design margin (RDM) of 2 after 7 encounters). The payload and the spacecraft are designed specifically to accommodate the fast flyby velocities (e.g. the spacecraft is radioisotope powered, remaining small and agile without any flexible appendages). The science instruments, which collect the majority of the high-priority data when close to Io and thus near the peak flux, also have to mitigate transient noise in their detectors. The cameras use a combination of shielding and CMOS detectors with extremely fast readout to mi- imize noise. INMS microchannel plate detectors and PIA channel electron multipliers require additional shielding. The FGM is not sensitive to noise induced by energetic particles and the ThM microbolometer detector is nearly insensitive. Detailed SNR calculations are presented. To facilitate targeting agility, all of the spacecraft components are shielded separately since this approach is more mass efficient than using a radiation vault. IVO uses proven radiation-hardened parts (rated at 100 krad behind equivalent shielding of 280 mils of Aluminum with RDM of 2) and is expected to have ample mass margin to increase shielding if needed.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

Integrated data acquisition and processing to determine metabolite contents, relaxation times, and macromolecule baseline in single examinations of individual subjects

Absolute quantitation of clinical (1)H-MR spectra is virtually always incomplete for single subjects because the separate determination of spectrum, baseline, and transverse and longitudinal relaxation times in single subjects is prohibitively long. Integrated Processing and Acquisition of Data (IPAD) based on a combined 2-dimensional experimental and fitting strategy is suggested to substantially improve the information content from a given measurement time. A series of localized saturation-recovery spectra was recorded and combined with 2-dimensional prior-knowledge fitting to simultaneously determine metabolite T(1) (from analysis of the saturation-recovery time course), metabolite T(2) (from lineshape analysis based on metabolite and water peak shapes), macromolecular baseline (based on T(1) differences and analysis of the saturation-recovery time course), and metabolite concentrations (using prior knowledge fitting and conventional procedures of absolute standardization). The procedure was tested on metabolite solutions and applied in 25 subjects (15-78 years old). Metabolite content was comparable to previously found values. Interindividual variation was larger than intraindividual variation in repeated spectra for metabolite content as well as for some relaxation times. Relaxation times were different for various metabolite groups. Parts of the interindividual variation could be explained by significant age dependence of relaxation times.

Comparison of inorganic nitrogen uptake dynamics following snowmelt and at peak biomass in subalpine grasslands

Subalpine grasslands are highly seasonal environments and likely subject to strong variability in nitrogen (N) dynamics. Plants and microbes typically compete for N acquisition during the growing season and particularly at plant peak biomass. During snowmelt, plants could potentially benefit from a decrease in competition by microbes, leading to greater plant N uptake associated with active growth and freeze-thaw cycles restricting microbial growth. In managed subalpine grasslands, we expect these interactions to be influenced by recent changes in agricultural land use, and associated modifications in plant and microbial communities. At several subalpine grasslands in the French Alps, we added pulses of 15N to the soil at the end of snowmelt, allowing us to compare the dynamics of inorganic N uptake in plants and microbes during this period with that previously reported at the peak biomass in July. In all grasslands, while specific shoot N translocation (per g of biomass) of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) was two to five times greater at snowmelt than at peak biomass, specific microbial DIN uptakes were similar between the two sampling dates. On an area basis, plant communities took more DIN than microbial communities at the end of snowmelt when aboveground plant biomasses were at least two times lower than at peak biomass. Consequently, inorganic N partitioning after snowmelt switches in favor of plant communities, allowing them to support their growing capacities at this period of the year. Seasonal differences in microbial and plant inorganic N-related dynamics were also affected by past (terraced vs. unterraced) rather than current (mown vs. unmown) land use. In terraced grasslands, microbial biomass N remained similar across seasons, whereas in unterraced grasslands, microbial biomass N was higher and microbial C : N lower at the end of snowmelt as compared to peak biomass. Further investigations on microbial community composition and their organic N uptake dynamics are required to better understand the decrease in microbial DIN uptake.

Effectiveness of integrated care including therapeutic assertive community treatment in severe schizophrenia spectrum and bipolar I disorders: the 24-month follow-up ACCESS II study

OBJECTIVE The ACCESS treatment model offers assertive community treatment embedded in an integrated care program to patients with psychoses. Compared to standard care and within a controlled study, it proved to be more effective in terms of service disengagement and illness outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders over 12 months. ACCESS was implemented into clinical routine and its effectiveness assessed over 24 months in severe schizophrenia spectrum disorders and bipolar I disorder with psychotic features (DSM-IV) in a cohort study. METHOD All 115 patients treated in ACCESS (from May 2007 to October 2009) were included in the ACCESS II study. The primary outcome was rate of service disengagement. Secondary outcomes were change of psychopathology, severity of illness, psychosocial functioning, quality of life, satisfaction with care, medication nonadherence, length of hospital stay, and rates of involuntary hospitalization. RESULTS Only 4 patients (3.4%) disengaged with the service. Another 11 (9.6%) left because they moved outside the catchment area. Patients received a mean of 1.6 outpatient contacts per week. Involuntary admissions decreased from 34.8% in the 2 previous years to 7.8% during ACCESS (P < .001). Mixed models repeated-measures analyses revealed significant improvements among all patients in psychopathology (effect size d = 0.64, P < .001), illness severity (d = 0.84, P = .03), functioning level (d = 0.65, P < .001), quality of life (d = 0.50, P < .001), and client satisfaction (d = 0.11, P < .001). At 24 months, 78.3% were fully adherent to medication, compared to 25.2% at baseline (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS ACCESS was successfully implemented in clinical routine and maintained excellent rates of service engagement and other outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar I disorder with psychotic features over 24 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01888627.

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity for integrated prediction of 5-year biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30-50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors. METHODS We used DNA-based indices alone or in combination with intra-prostatic hypoxia measurements to develop four prognostic indices in 126 low-risk to intermediate-risk patients (Toronto cohort) who will receive image-guided radiotherapy. We validated these indices in two independent cohorts of 154 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort [MSKCC] cohort) and 117 (Cambridge cohort) radical prostatectomy specimens from low-risk to high-risk patients. We applied unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques to the copy-number profiles of 126 pre-image-guided radiotherapy diagnostic biopsies to develop prognostic signatures. Our primary endpoint was the development of a set of prognostic measures capable of stratifying patients for risk of biochemical relapse 5 years after primary treatment. FINDINGS Biochemical relapse was associated with indices of tumour hypoxia, genomic instability, and genomic subtypes based on multivariate analyses. We identified four genomic subtypes for prostate cancer, which had different 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival. Genomic instability is prognostic for relapse in both image-guided radiotherapy (multivariate analysis hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [95% CI 2·1-9·8]; p=0·00013; area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·76]) and radical prostatectomy (4·0 [1·6-9·7]; p=0·0024; AUC 0·57 [0·52-0·61]) patients with prostate cancer, and its effect is magnified by intratumoral hypoxia (3·8 [1·2-12]; p=0·019; AUC 0·67 [0·61-0·73]). A novel 100-loci DNA signature accurately classified treatment outcome in the MSKCC low-risk to intermediate-risk cohort (multivariate analysis HR 6·1 [95% CI 2·0-19]; p=0·0015; AUC 0·74 [95% CI 0·65-0·83]). In the independent MSKCC and Cambridge cohorts, this signature identified low-risk to high-risk patients who were most likely to fail treatment within 18 months (combined cohorts multivariate analysis HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·4-6·0]; p=0·0039; AUC 0·68 [95% CI 0·63-0·73]), and was better at predicting biochemical relapse than 23 previously published RNA signatures. INTERPRETATION This is the first study of cancer outcome to integrate DNA-based and microenvironment-based failure indices to predict patient outcome. Patients exhibiting these aggressive features after biopsy should be entered into treatment intensification trials. FUNDING Movember Foundation, Prostate Cancer Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Canadian Institute for Health Research, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Cambridge Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer UK, Hutchison Whampoa Limited, Terry Fox Research Institute, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation, PMH-Radiation Medicine Program Academic Enrichment Fund, Motorcycle Ride for Dad (Durham), Canadian Cancer Society.

Earth system commitments due to delayed mitigation

As long as global CO₂ emissions continue to increase annually, long-term committed Earth system changes grow much faster than current observations. A novel metric linking this future growth to policy decisions today is the mitigation delay sensitivity (MDS), but MDS estimates for Earth system variables other than peak temperature (ΔT max) are missing. Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, we show that the current emission increase rate causes a ΔT max increase roughly 3–7.5 times as fast as observed warming, and a millenial steric sea level rise (SSLR) 7–25 times as fast as observed SSLR, depending on the achievable rate of emission reductions after the peak of emissions. These ranges are only slightly affected by the uncertainty range in equilibrium climate sensitivity, which is included in the above values. The extent of ocean acidification at the end of the century is also strongly dependent on the starting time and rate of emission reductions. The preservable surface ocean area with sufficient aragonite supersaturation for coral reef growth is diminished globally at an MDS of roughly 25%–80% per decade. A near-complete loss of this area becomes unavoidable if mitigation is delayed for a few years to decades. Also with respect to aragonite, 12%–18% of the Southern Ocean surface become undersaturated per decade, if emission reductions are delayed beyond 2015–2040. We conclude that the consequences of delaying global emission reductions are much better captured if the MDS of relevant Earth system variables is communicated in addition to current trends and total projected future changes.

Using small area estimation and geographic information systems technology to target health services for the uninsured

The three articles that comprise this dissertation describe how small area estimation and geographic information systems (GIS) technologies can be integrated to provide useful information about the number of uninsured and where they are located. Comprehensive data about the numbers and characteristics of the uninsured are typically only available from surveys. Utilization and administrative data are poor proxies from which to develop this information. Those who cannot access services are unlikely to be fully captured, either by health care provider utilization data or by state and local administrative data. In the absence of direct measures, a well-developed estimation of the local uninsured count or rate can prove valuable when assessing the unmet health service needs of this population. However, the fact that these are “estimates” increases the chances that results will be rejected or, at best, treated with suspicion. The visual impact and spatial analysis capabilities afforded by geographic information systems (GIS) technology can strengthen the likelihood of acceptance of area estimates by those most likely to benefit from the information, including health planners and policy makers. ^ The first article describes how uninsured estimates are currently being performed in the Houston metropolitan region. It details the synthetic model used to calculate numbers and percentages of uninsured, and how the resulting estimates are integrated into a GIS. The second article compares the estimation method of the first article with one currently used by the Texas State Data Center to estimate numbers of uninsured for all Texas counties. Estimates are developed for census tracts in Harris County, using both models with the same data sets. The results are statistically compared. The third article describes a new, revised synthetic method that is being tested to provide uninsured estimates at sub-county levels for eight counties in the Houston metropolitan area. It is being designed to replicate the same categorical results provided by a current U.S. Census Bureau estimation method. The estimates calculated by this revised model are compared to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates, using the same areas and population categories. ^

Oceanography during TYDEMAN cruise DCM (DeepChlorMax) to the Equatorial Atlantic

The cruise with RV Tydeman was devoted to study permanently stratified plankton systems in the (sub)tropical ocean, which are characterised by a deep chlorophyll peak between 80 and 150 m. To minimise lateral effects by horizontal transport of nutrients and organic matter from river outflow and upwelling regions, stations were selected in the middle of the North Atlantic Ocean between the continents of America and Africa. (5 - 35° N and 50 - 15° W). Here the vertical distributions of light and nutrients control the abundance and growth of autotrophic algae in the thermically stratified water column. This phytoplankton is numerically dominated by the prokaryotic picoplankters Synechococcus spp. and Prochlorococcus spp., which are smaller than 2 ?m. The productivity of the 100 to 150 m deep euphotic zone can be high, because a high heterotrophic/autotrophic biomass ratio induces a rapid regeneration of nutrients and inorganic carbon. Primary grazers are mainly micro-organisms such as heterotrophic nannoflagellates and ciliates, which feed on the small algae and on bacteria. Heterotrophic bacteria can outnumber the autotrophic algae, because their number is related to the substrate pools of dissolved and particulate dead organic matter. These DOC and detritus pools reach equilibrium at a concentration, where the rate of their production (proportional to algal biomass) equals their mineralisation and sinking rate (proportional to the concentration and weight of POC and detritus). At a relatively low value of the weight-specific loss rates, the equilibrium concentration of these carbon pools and their load of bacteria can be high. The bacterial productivity is proportional to the mineralisation rate, which in a steady state can never be higher than the rate of primary production. Hence the ratio in turnover rate of bacteria and autotrophs tends to be reciprocally proportional to their biomass ratio.

Acid-soluble sulfides in upper layer bottom sediments from the Tsemess and Gelendzhik bays and adjacent shelf area of the Black Sea

Contents of labile (acid-soluble) sulfides were determined in the upper layer of bottom sediments at 80 stations on the Caucasian shelf of the Black Sea. Maximum values of this parameter occurred in black mud accumulated in zones of intense pollution in the Gelendzhik and Tsemess bays and in shelf areas adjacent to large health resort objects and to seaports. Contents of acid-soluble sulfides in sediments varied from 400 to 900 mg S/dm**3 of wet mud. In zones of moderate pollution they varied from 200 to 400 mg S/dm**3. Rate of sulfate reduction was 10-40 mg S/dm**3 of wet sediment per day. Obtained data show that accumulation of labile sulfides in the upper layer of shelf bottom sediments is directly related to anthropogenic pollution and is one of the most hazardous environmental aftereffects.

Carbonate mineralogical and isotopic analyses of TV-guided grab samples and TV-guided box corer samples from the Shumagin area

Methane seepage leads to Mg-calcite and aragonite precipitation at a depth of 4,850 m on the Aleutian accretionary margin. Stromatolitic and oncoid growth structures imply encrustation of microorganisms (microbial mats) in the host sediment with a unique growth direction downward into the sediment, forming crust-shaped lithologies. Biomarker investigations of the residue after carbonate dissolution show strong enrichments in crocetane and archaeol, which contain extremely low d13C values. This indicates the presence of methane-consuming archaea, and d13C values of -42 to -51 per mill PDB indicate that methane is the carbon source for the carbonate crusts. Thus, it appears that stromatolitic encrustations of methanotrophic anaerobic archaea probably occurs in a consortium with sulphate-reducing bacteria and that carbonate precipitation proceeds downward into the sediment, where ascending cold fluids provide a methane source. Strontium and oxygen isotope analyses as well as 14C ages of the carbonates suggest that the fluids come from deep within the sediment and that carbonate precipitation began about 3,000 years ago.