Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

An in vitro assessment of the effects of broad-spectrum antibiotics on the human gut microflora and concomitant isolation of a Lactobacillus plantarum with anti-Candida activities

Chemostat culture was used to determine the effects of the antimicrobial agents tetracycline and nystatin on predominant components of the human gut microflora. Their addition to mixed culture systems caused a non-specific, and variable, decrease in microbial populations, although tetracycline allowed an increase in numbers of yeasts. Both had a profound inhibitory effect upon populations seen as important for gut health (bifidobacteria, lactobacilli). However, a tetracycline resistant Lactobacillus was enriched from the experiments. A combination of genotypic and phenotypic characterisations confirmed its identity as Lactobacillus plantarum. This strain exerted powerful inhibitory effects against Candida albicans. Because of its ability to resist the effects of tetracycline, this organism may be useful as a probiotic for the improved management of yeast related conditions such as thrush and irritable bowel syndrome. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A demonstration of attentional bias, using a novel dual task paradigm, towards clinically salient material in recovering alcohol abuse patients?

Background. This study examined whether alcohol abuse patients are characterized either by enhanced schematic processing of alcohol related cues or by an attentional bias towards the processing of alcohol cues. Method. Abstinent alcohol abusers (N = 25) and non-clinical control participants (N = 24) performed a dual task paradigm in which they had to make an odd/even decision to a centrally presented number while performing a peripherally presented lexical decision task. Stimuli on the lexical decision task comprised alcohol words, neutral words and non-words. In addition, participants completed an incidental recall task for the words presented in the lexical decision task. Results. It was found that, in the presence of alcohol related words, the performance of patients on the odd/even decision task was poorer than in the presence of other stimului. In addition, patients displayed slower lexical decision times for alcohol related words. Both groups displayed better recall for alcohol words than for other stimuli. Conclusions. These results are interpreted as supporting neither model of drug cravings. Rather, it is proposed that, in the presence of alcohol stimuli, alcohol abuse patients display a breakdown in the ability to focus attention.

Childhood abuse and schizotypal personality

Introduction There is an increasing body of evidence suggesting an association between early adverse events and an increased prevalence of sub-clinical psychotic phenomena. These 'schizotypal' beliefs and experiences have been associated with a history of trauma, and are also recognised as a risk factor for the transition to psychosis. However, previous studies have not investigated the associations between specific types of adverse event and the distinct dimensions of such phenomena. Methods An internet questionnaire produced three groups of participants who had suffered discrete forms of childhood abuse. Results Individuals who had suffered physical or sexual abuse exhibited higher levels of paranoia/suspiciousness and unusual perceptual experiences, but not magical thinking. Individuals who had suffered emotional abuse did not show higher scores within any of these three measures of schizotypy. Conclusion The results suggest the need for further research to improve the specificity of the identification of individuals who may be at risk of a transition to psychosis.

Childhood emotional abuse and neglect as predictors of psychological and physical symptoms in women presenting to a primary care practice

Objective: There were two aims to this study: first to examine whether emotional abuse and neglect are significant predictors of psychological and somatic symptoms, and lifetime trauma exposure in women presenting to a primary care practice, and second to examine the strength of these relationships after controlling for the effects of other types of childhood abuse and trauma. Method: Two-hundred and five women completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (Bernstein et al., 1994), Trauma History Questionnaire (Green, 1996), the Symptom Checklist-revised (Derogatis, 1997), and the Revised Civilian Mississippi Scale for posttraumatic stress disorder (Norris & Perilla, 1996) when presenting to their primary care physician for a visit. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine unique contributions of emotional abuse and neglect variables on symptom measures while controlling for childhood sexual and physical abuse and lifetime trauma exposure. Results: A history of emotional abuse and neglect was associated with increased anxiety, depression, posttraumatic stress and physical symptoms, as well as lifetime trauma exposure. Physical and sexual abuse and lifetime trauma were also significant predictors of physical and psychological symptoms. Hierarchical multiple regressions demonstrated that emotional abuse and neglect predicted symptomatology in these women even when controlling for other types of abuse and lifetime trauma exposure. Conclusions: Long-standing behavioral consequences may arise as a result of childhood emotional abuse and neglect, specifically, poorer emotional and physical functioning, and vulnerability to further trauma exposure. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Auditory hallucinations and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder within schizophrenia and substance abuse

There is a high prevalence of traumatic events within individuals diagnosed with schizophrenia, and of auditory hallucinations within individuals diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the relationship between the symptoms associated with these disorders remains poorly understood. We conducted a multidimensional assessment of auditory hallucinations within a sample diagnosed with schizophrenia and substance abuse, both with and without co-morbid PTSD. Results suggest a rate of co-morbid PTSD similar to those reported within other studies. Patients who suffered co-morbid PTSD reported more distressing auditory hallucinations. However, the hallucinations were not more frequent or of longer duration. The need for a multidimensional assessment is supported. Results are discussed within current theoretical accounts of traumatic psychosis.

Association between cyclohexane resistance in Salmonella of different serovars and increased, resistance to multiple antibiotics, disinfectants and dyes

A panel of 388 salmonellas of animal and human origin, comprising 35 serotypes, was tested for resistance to cyclohexane and to a range of antibiotics, disinfectants and dyes. Cyclohexane resistance was detected in 41 isolates (10.6%): these comprised members of the serovars Binza (1 of 15), Dublin (1 of 24), Enteritidis (1 of 61), Fischerkietz (4 of 5), Livingstone (9 of 11), Montevideo (1 of 32), Newport (4 of 23), Saint-paul (1 of 3), Senftenberg (10 of 24) and Typhimurium (9 of 93). Most (39 of 41) of the cyclohexane-resistant isolates were from poultry. Statistical analysis showed that the cyclohexane-resistant strains were significantly more resistant than the cyclohexane-susceptible strains to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, erythromycin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, trimethoprim, cetrimide and triclosan. The multiresistance patterns seen,were typical of those caused by efflux pumps, such as AcrAB. The emergence of such resistance may play an important role in the overall antibiotic resistance picture of Salmonella, with particular effect on ciprofloxacin.

Commonly used farm disinfectants can select for mutant Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium with decreased susceptibility to biocides and antibiotics without compromising virulence

Objectives: To determine if one passage of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in the presence of farm disinfectants selected for mutants with decreased susceptibility to disinfectants and/or antibiotics. Methods: Eight Salmonella Typhimurium strains including field isolates and laboratory mutants were exposed to either a tar oil phenol (PFD) disinfectant, an oxidizing compound disinfectant (OXC), an aldehyde based disinfectant (ABD) or a dairy sterilizer disinfectant (based on quaternary ammonium biocide) in agar. The susceptibility of mutants obtained after disinfectant exposure to antibiotics and disinfectants was determined as was the accumulation of norfloxacin. The proteome of SL1344 after exposure to PFD and OXC was analysed using two-dimensional liquid chromatography mass spectrometry. Results: Strains with either acrB or tolC inactivated were more susceptible to most disinfectants than other strains. The majority (3/5) of mutants recovered after disinfectant exposure required statistically significantly longer exposure times to disinfectants than their parent strains to generate a 5 log kill. Small decreases in antibiotic susceptibility were observed but no mutants were multiply antibiotic-resistant (MAR). Notably exposure to ABD decreased susceptibility to ciprofloxacin in some strains. Mutants with increased disinfectant tolerance were able to survive and persist in chicks as well as in parent strains. Analysis of proteomes revealed significantly increased expression of the AcrAB-TolC efflux system after PFD exposure. Conclusions: Data presented demonstrate that efflux pumps are required for intrinsic resistance to some disinfectants and that exposure to disinfectants can induce expression of the AcrAB-TolC efflux system, but that single exposure was insufficient to select for MAR strains.